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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Maybe, but that's being stupid-picky. I'm not one to usually overvalue prospects but I'd be immensely disappointed if the Twins let Thorpe go for a middling starter rental.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, those games often start with the rotation. Say Mejia gives up 5 runs in 4 IP. Well, the Twins would occasionally be good enough to overcome that deficit, as they have a decent offense. But you roll out the clown car to replace Mejia and that deficit often balloons by 3+ runs in a couple of innings. We've seen it so many times this season.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Nope, just an assumption based on watching baseball for 30 years. Established starters don't go for nothing, nor should they.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    This is one thing that has caught my attention this season. All managers use their best bullpen guys in the closest games but most bullpens aren't filled with binary good/terrible relievers. How does that impact BaseRuns? Dunno, but it has to have some effect on the metric. After all, we've watched this team all season. They're horrible when down by 4+ runs, often allowing the other team to blow it wide open into an 8+ run deficit. But in two run games? They're quite competitive.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Making the postseason isn't the only reason to make modest improvements to the team. Most of this team is young and inexperienced. Keeping them focused for an entire season through a division race may be a priority for this front office (along with increased fan interest). This is a 59 win team that imploded just last season. Making a few modest improvements to vault them into 80 win territory (or better) isn't unreasonable, even if you think you only have a moderate chance of making the postseason. Stats, sequencing, and projections are important but (and it pains me to say this), baseball is not played on a stat sheet. Give the team a chance to win this season without breaking open the farm, hope for the best, and then try to build a better team next season with a bunch of young players who expect to win.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Projection versus sequencing. Sequencing happened. According to the metric, the Twins should have a .438 winning percentage. But they don't. Those wins are in the bag. So, going forward, Fangraphs expects a .438 winning percentage added to the Twins already existing 48-46 record. And you get... 78 wins (actually 77-point-something but you get the idea).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Right now? Not a ton but I expect attendance will be solid through the rest of the season if the Twins stay in it. But baseball attendance usually lags by a season. Stay in the race through 2017 and it's likely the Twins see a significant attendance bump in 2018 (provided they don't open the season with a catastrophic failure as they did in 2016).
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Brace yourself because the Twins are definitely giving up a top 30 prospect for an established starting pitcher. I expect something in the 10-15 range.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, this. And it's quite rare for teams to go from 70 wins to 90 wins in a season. Baseball is usually played by season-over-season baby steps. Get to .500, give both the players and fans a taste of exciting baseball, and then use your offseason to improve upon your flaws. Expecting a team to tank and then return to relevance in a single season is a good way to ensure you never see a good baseball team take the field.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins are in the same situation, though. They're waaaaaaay under their payroll threshold. I expect the Twins to take on most, if not all, of the salary because why not? If the Braves want to deal with someone else for a better prospect, let them do that.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    It's quite possible they should be sellers in the abstract but in the real world, that would absolutely destroy fan interest in this team. How many millions would the team be leaving on the table in 2018 if they closed out this season with a 74-88 record? Never mind what that does to young players who are in a division race for the first time in their careers. If this team is going to contend before 2020, they need to invest in the players on the field and let them taste success.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    This is what I'm most interested in, really. Who doesn't Falvey like? This will be an interesting test of how he views the org and wants to change it going forward. None of the players in question are "his" guys so I expect we may be surprised by the result.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I value Thorpe more highly than either Gonsalves or Romero so... yeah. Definitely agree on that one. Stewart? Eh, still too valuable but I value him quite a bit less than those three. But Stewart is approaching reasonable return area for a Garcia rental.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Which makes me think they got what they consider a good deal on Garcia.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Gonsalves and Romero. Both of which are far too valuable to give up for Jaime Garcia.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    That doesn't make it the wrong move.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not the type of move that excites Twins fans but it's probably the right kind of move to make.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, said "payroll relief", meant "payroll flexibility".
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree in that the move didn't make much sense to me. Antony knew his job was temporary, yet he moved a somewhat significant piece to relieve payroll. And while Antony is still employed with the org, I understand why that is the case. Anyone who has worked in a big organization knows the value of long-term employees during a transition phase. You need someone to guide you through the day-to-day stuff while the new boss(es) gets situated. All I hope is that Antony doesn't have much in the way of decision-making power in the new org (which is probably the case, as there are two new people above him).
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Virtually nothing, because they didn't trade him.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect we'll see Romero this year depending if the Twins are in contention in September. The problem isn't when the prospects will arrive, it's whether they'll ever be any good. Gonaslves, Romero, and Jorge are nice pieces to have but they are NOT elite prospects and it's incredibly unlikely they save this rotation.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I couldn't stop laughing after I saw Buxton round second. I just had a feeling he was going to be waved home and the absurdity of it all was priceless.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I am. I thought he'd be middling, maybe kinda bad, but not terrible. But if a middling pitcher suffers velocity issues, I guess it's to be expected.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I would not bring up Gordon. I don't trust half of a breakout season where he's failing miserably against LHP (.538 OPS in 56 PA). I'm still pretty lukewarm on Gordon, actually. I think he'll become a productive MLB starter but I remain unconvinced this season is for real. That doesn't mean he can't become a .780 OPS player in MLB - which would make him very valuable - I'm simply not sold on his .850 OPS. That's why I'd consider trading him while his value is high.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    And, more humorously, this was my response to someone saying it could be a problem that Meyer needed to be rostered in 2017: "Though given the Twins penchant for slipshod bullpens in April, May, June, and sometimes even July, that's not a deal breaker." I CAN PREDICT THE FUTURE
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