Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Yeah, I was going to post something about that but it felt so obviously snarky that I refrained from doing it.
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I don't know about anyone else, but I'm terrified of pissing off my 21st century producer overlord.
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*bangs face on table* No, they're not the same thing. I am not disrespecting black Republicans in the slightest bit. Every individual has the right to their own opinion. What I'm doing is acknowledging they exist but not in substantial enough numbers to matter when looking at the big picture. Because, when it comes to the actual ballot box, black Americans are still voting pretty much the same way they've been voting for the past couple of decades (and actually, the numbers have mostly trended more to the Democrat side, not against it).
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Finland. Norway. Denmark. Britain. Germany. Japan. I can keep going if you like.
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Dude, do you seriously not understand what I'm saying at this point? Yes, those movements exist. Black Americans, who number in the tens of millions, do not have a homogenous belief system. Shocking, I know, but it's true. Those movements can exist and still be irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. Like I said in one of my first posts of this conversation, there are YouTube videos of black people defending slavery. But it'd be pretty irrational to watch one of those videos and form an opinion about the other tens of millions of black Americans because one pro-slavery video had 1753 likes. Which is what you've done consistently in this discussion.
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I use actual election data because that's the most reliable data we have available to us. Approval rating waxes and wanes on almost a daily basis because there's nothing substantial on the line about saying you approve/disapprove of a person in the middle of February. On the other hand, polling people immediately after they cast an actual ballot means something because the person actually invested in something right there in the moment. Their decision is more informed and they just made a decision one way or the other; if a person is ever going to not be indecisive about politics, the ballot box is where it will happen. And did you honestly just ask why I'm link-spamming data and suggest that it's somehow disruptive to our conversation? If you don't want me to link spam you with data, stop making factually inaccurate statements based on a handful of YouTube videos. You don't get to use anecdotal evidence to form an opinion and then declare that I'm being mean because I rebut your point with actual numbers. You have actually declared the following in this thread: "Have your views, but don't pretend for a second that there isn't a movement toward conservatism for African Americans during this last year." There is no ambiguity in that statement. You are declaring definitively that a thing is happening and the rest of us are somehow deluded to believe otherwise. You post nothing beyond anecdotes from YouTube. I post actual large-sweeping numbers in response. Your gut feelings do not hold the same weight as actual voting data. Full stop.
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Report From The Fort: Plenty Of Heat
Brock Beauchamp replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Well, yes and no. It's the first week of March. Hitters aren't exactly up to speed on game velocity. Good that he performed, great that he showed increased velocity, what the hitters did with it is basically inconsequential. -
Poking Fun at Politicians
Brock Beauchamp replied to MMMordabito's topic in Twins Daily Issues & Suggestions
Thank you for your understanding. Truly, it's pretty rare for a poster - especially a relatively new one - to say "Ah, yeah, okay... I get it now." Basically, we at Twins Daily *really* dislike cutesy pejorative nicknames. A good rule of thumb is to just stay away from them. As Ashbury pointed out, the Trumpty meme was left up but it's questionable. The moderators have to make isolated decisions and no, they're not going to be 100% consistent. We all try our best but we have to weigh a multitude of things: in this case, the fact it was a meme and obviously satire just pushed it far enough to one side of the scale that it was left standing as-is. But just because a post is left standing, don't assume that there isn't (or wasn't) individual moderator consideration about it because the post was pretty borderline. It's a hard call to make because the final decision is binary; the post stands or is deleted. There isn't really a middle ground to take and that will lead to some wiggling around with posts that exist in that murky grey territory. -
There are always guys available if you're willing to overpay or disperse the money amongst a bunch of intriguing guys with flaws. Either way, the money is a good thing, provided they spend it (which I'm sure they will, you don't trade someone and then sit on the return until it evaporates).
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Park: Gonsalves hits 93 in first spring start of spring
Brock Beauchamp replied to 2wins87's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Even Maddux wasn't that guy for most of his career. People talk about his control and precision and yadda yadda yadda but tend to forget the guy threw well into the 90s for a large chunk of his career. And he pitched in an era where 80-something mph guys were pretty common. He wasn't a league leader in velocity but was solidly in the upper half of pitcher velocity. Sure, he got by on smoke and mirrors later in his career but gathered up a whopping 93 rWAR through the 2002 season, amassing just 11 more rWAR the final six years of his career as his velocity continued to drop. -
Park: Gonsalves hits 93 in first spring start of spring
Brock Beauchamp replied to 2wins87's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Yeah, right? I wonder if that's why he was chosen: he's a development guy first and foremost. He was a college guy, after all. It makes sense. I really hope that's the case. -
"Just a reminder that public opinion is complicated. "Socialist" goals (e.g. greater income redistribution) are often quite popular. But "socialism" as a brand or label is really unpopular." I've known this for a long time and I'm not disputing Nate's take here, I only want to point out how much this kind of opinion split makes my brain hurt. COME ON, AMERICA
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Yeah... I can't believe he brought that back in return.
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Okay, you're not even listening to what you're saying. You have said a variation of this multiple times: "Why is so outlandish to realize #walkaway and Blexit are real and blacks are moving toward conservatism?" Let me break this down for you. For something to be moving, you need a minimum of two data points. That's how this works. I provided you with a link to 2016 (data point #1) and then another link to 2018 (data point #2). And if you read link #2, you'd see it talks about more than gubernatorial races. It also breaks down congressional races and they all say the same thing: black people are still not voting for the republican party. The difference between 2016 and 2018 (ie. "moving") is negligible to non-existent. Second, you have said "conservatives" multiple times in this thread and are using it interchangeably with "Trump". Then you steer the conversation back to Trump when I post numbers that show how black people are not turning conservative. If you don't like my links and/or data, you should pay closer attention to the actual words you're using because that's what I'm responding to.
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I did find neutral sources, such as Pew Research, and you immediately discarded the data because you didn't like what it said.
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Because they're not. It's that bloody simple. WE JUST HAD AN ELECTION. We know, using actual hard numbers, that the black vote didn't move significantly from 2016. Listen, black Americans number in the tens of millions of people. No, not EVERY SINGLE BLACK PERSON is a Democrat or even leans blue because of course there is variance within a group of people that large and diverse. You have no numbers on your side here. None. Nada. Zilch. Meanwhile, I've basically been link-spamming you with actual data. For kicks, HERE IS MORE. https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/8b2f7d_d6b4e1aeedee467da9a84e29edcb642a.pdf
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But here, just because I keep coming at this for some inexplicable reason, have another article that basically shoots a Trump-sized hole in your argument. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/08/17/no-one-third-of-african-americans-dont-support-trump-not-even-close/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.6115c952e7d6
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You're right. Actual exit polling data has no application to this conversation, but your gut feeling and half dozen YouTube videos are solid gold evidence. Are you even listening to yourself right now?
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By the way, I searched YouTube for videos of black people defending slavery. They exist.
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Here's your source (note that I never mentioned approval rating, you assumed that's what I meant). I didn't link it because I read it months ago and didn't feel it necessary to supply a link because I assumed it was common knowledge. https://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2016 Also, there are other sources that say similar things (I think you can find something in the article I posted earlier) so this link's data is not an outlier.
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We literally had an election a few months ago. We don't have to guess on this one, we have the numbers. And the numbers were that black people as a whole voted approximately +80 for Democrats. The number in 2016? +80 for Democrats. Little or no movement, certainly not enough to be statistically significant. Your argument is the very definition of cherry-picking. You are searching for videos and finding evidence in their mere existence... if I searched YouTube, I could literally find videos of black people defending slavery. That has absolutely no bearing on where black people, as a voting unit, are trending. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2018/11/09/how-latinos-voted-in-2018-midterms/ http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/
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Is this literally the response you want to give or would you like to try again? I'll give you a mulligan if you want to take advantage of it. Literally 11 out of 12 black people voted for someone other than Trump. Those are actual numbers. You posted a YouTube video. I don’t care if you’re a centrist, left, right, up, or down. Your statement is factually incorrect and you posted a video citing likes to defend your point. If you can’t see the problem here... *shrugs*
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Are you referencing the 6% or the 8% who are now embracing Trump?? Because you better back up that statement with actual numbers.
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I *hated* the election of Pelosi to speaker chair again but I have to respect the woman and admit I was wrong. She is literally the best politician who could hold that place right now. She is openly coming out and (politically) agreeing with most of the talking points Trump is trying to lay out about socialism. She straight up gamed Trump over the government closure. She is not giving the man a single talking point to use going forward. He can rant and rave, but she's quietly positioning herself as a centrist. And she's not even a factor in the coming election. It's a master stroke.
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I actually agree with most of this, which is why I haven't really refuted Gonzalez' +1 projection... as a median. At its root, my questionable confidence in this kind of projection is two-fold: 1. That replacement players are actually available. We have a pretty long track record of watching some truly abysmal players get time on the field, though it should be noted a lot of that happened under the previous front office (which makes it as much of a management mistake as player). 2. That WAR itself - which is used for the projections - is even worth a damn when you get in SSS of I'm not even saying the projection is wrong. It very well could be spot-on but when we start dealing with tiny numbers and lots of them, my faith in advanced metrics begin to waver (and, essentially, Gonzalez' replacements would be lots of tiny numbers).
