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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    AHHHH THE TWISN ARE BAD NOW JUST ADMIT IT WE SUKC AHHHHH
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    And I suspect you just answered your own question, at least in part.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    One year? Hell, I didn’t even want Keuchel and now I’m disappointed, too.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Not in the trade itself, in the failure of the coaching staff to effectively communicate the front office's data to the player and implement that data. The Twins knew Pressly had electric stuff, but there seemed to be broken communication lines when it came to relaying how to implement desired changes to the players themselves. And I think that's part of the reason we have Baldelli and Johnson right now.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    People wildly overuse the "worst ownership in sports" tag on their own teams but Marlins fans have a legit claim to that "title".
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you might be right but, as you pointed out, the Marlins are just about the worst benchmark to use for anything except futility.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    This is why I don't let individual baseball games get to me. It works at least half the time, too.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair, I think the Pressly situation was a big reason why Molitor and part of the coaching staff was fired (and they had data to back up that decision to ownership after it happened), which is a probably a net win. Ownership never should have put the restrictions they did on Falvine in the first place but that's water under the bridge at this point.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes. A team like the Cubs can say "what the hell, let's do it anyway" without moving the needle much on future decisions. The Twins can't do the same.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, the Twins *technically* can swallow the money but if your analytical analysis suggests decline and a reliever wants $16m+ a year, you don't just take on that money because you can technically eat it if you're right about the situation. That's really bad asset management. For good and bad, this front office appears to operate on a pretty strict "dollar to expected performance" ratio. While I wanted to see them land Kimbrel, I'd prefer to see them continue to operate that way and not throw it out the window in an emotional decision. And time will tell if they're right or not.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I love Rosario but it makes sense. The Twins have Kirilloff coming at some point and Rosario would bring back a solid return at a position of need.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I was going to say those arb numbers look really high. The Twins could keep both their core and pay Kimbrel. I don't think that should really be up for debate. The acquisition of Kimbrel would limit the team's ability to operate in free agency but the core could and should stay in place. What the argument comes down to is how the front office evaluated Kimbrel and whether they're right about him. If they view Kimbrel as a declining asset and Kimbrel actually declines, it'll be hard to argue with their decision in years to come. Or if they go get a really good reliever in the coming weeks, a guy they have to pay half what Kimbrel gets, and they properly evaluate their own system and give up prospects that won't hurt too much later, it'll be hard to argue with their decision in years to come. A lot of moving parts here and while it's fine to be disappointed, the front office did enough right this offseason that I'll give them a little leeway until we see how June and July unfold. Though I will never understand why they weren't more aggressive about this last December.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    While I'm disappointed that the Twins didn't land Kimbrel, I hope their refusal to buy into a third year was made for the right reasons (analytics showing an imminent decline in productivity), not the wrong reasons (money). The Cubs can swallow the money if Kimbrel goes south, the Twins do not have the same luxury. Unfortunately, we'll likely never know why the decision was made.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I clicked into this article solely to see Kepler’s WPA last night.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    This describes my opinion almost perfectly.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think Kimbrel would have impacted the core much but he definitely could have impacted additional FA signings. But the fact of the matter is that the Twins have and continue to spend well under their promised threshold. Now that they're winning, that payroll number needs to start climbing, and in a hurry. It's potentially the difference between a three year contention window and a five year contention window. And besides, the fans deserve it, especially those of us in the metro who paid for that effing stadium and all the promises that went along with it.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, I was pretty vocal about my desire to see them acquire at least one arm last offseason, so yeah...
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I guess we just disagree on that. There are seven teams in MLB 7.5+ games out of the second Wild Card on June 6th. That’s basically 25% of baseball. If the Twins offer value, at least one of them should be willing to part with a reliever before July, when there will likely be 1-3 more teams added to that 7.5+ GB stat. And we’ll still be a month away from the deadline at that point. I suspect at least a few teams will try to get ahead of the market and sell so they aren’t left with little/nothing at the end of July.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree, I’m only pointing out that Kimbrel isn’t a sure thing, particularly over the next couple of months.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    And Kimbrel likely won’t pitch in MLB for a couple of weeks. If the Twins are aggressive, the gap between Kimbrel pitching in Chicago and a traded reliever shouldn’t be large.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    You’re ignoring how much less money it will take to get another reliever. In 2020-2021, the difference between the cost of an acquired arm and Kimbrel is likely the price of a guy like Marwin Gonzalez, or close to it. It’s still not optimal to give up prospects but prospect value needs to be part of the equation, too. Is Nick Gordon worth the ~$15m difference between two years of Kimbrel and two years of another reliever? It’s not an easy question to answer and that’s why evaluation is so important. A team like the Twins needs to get that answer right the majority of the time because both prospects and money matter equally. Not that I’m suggesting the front office should trade Gordon for a reliever, he’s just an example.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I’m not sure the cost will be that steep. Half the teams in baseball aren’t even pretending to try right now. Obviously, bad teams don’t have many good players to trade - that’s why they’re bad - but the market shouldn’t be massively lopsided in favor of sellers.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It might be overrated but it’s also a real risk. I think Kimbrel will likely be fine (in time) but the risk shouldn’t be ignored, that’s all I’m saying. And the Twins BADLY need good 2019 performance from any acquired arms.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree but it should also be noted that Kimbrel's 2019 performance is the biggest risk of the contract as a whole. We have no idea what to expect from a guy who missed so much time and the overall track record of past players who have done the same is... not awesome.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Honestly, I'm a bit bummed the Twins didn't get Kimbrel but the guy is a pretty big risk at that price point. He may not even be effective this season, and the Twins badly need an effective reliever this season. 2020 is important but almost an afterthought compared to 2019 and Kimbrel's biggest question mark is his expected 2019 performance after missing so much time. Now that they've missed on Kimbrel, they need to lead the pack in aggressiveness with trades, starting... now. The Twins system is almost perfectly situated to get an impact arm. The org is chock full of good-but-not-great prospects, many of which can be combined to pick up a good arm from one of the several teams who are already out of contention this season. I'll be disappointed if the front office fails to make a move before July 1st.
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