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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't disagree with some of the premise of this post, that Santana perhaps isn't HoF caliber... but how you got there is kinda wrong. Cliff Lee didn't have a prime anywhere near that of Santana. Johan had five full seasons of 150 ERA+ ball. Cliff Lee had two. Johan's "mediocre" 2007 season was basically how Lee pitched during his best seasons, minus the two 150 ERA+ outlier seasons. And that's why, despite pitching roughly 100 fewer innings, Santana is worth about 10 rWAR more than Lee in his career. Kaat is an interesting point to bring up, though he kinda screwed himself by sticking around for a VERY long time and not being good. Kaat finished his career with a 45.2 rWAR. Through his first 17 seasons, he had a 48.1 rWAR. Through his final seven (!) seasons, he hung on and posted a -2.9 rWAR. And it's not as if he stunk it up for a year or two, he was roughly replacement level or worse every year out of those seven. I never realized he was so bad for so long, yet kept getting playing time in the era of free agency.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    While I support the general idea of this article, Johan is a fringy HoF candidate, at best. Baseball history is littered with elite pitchers who fell off a cliff around age 30. I'm saving my outrage for when Mauer gets snubbed in the first few ballots because he was literally a player who did things no baseball player in history had ever done and rocked enormous JAWS ratings on par with the best catchers in baseball history.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I remember somewhere in the 2003-2004 seasons when the announcers pointed out that Radke hadn't gone to a 2-0 count in something like 65 batters, which illustrates just how freakin' much that guy was a poor man's Maddux. Anyway, the first pitch strike matters a hell of a lot. While we all love the swings and misses, getting that first pitch over the plate for a strike matters *a lot*.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    1. Buxton (okay, bad idea but whatever) 2. Arraez (I'm starting to wonder what the hell is happening, is Gardenhire running this team, except Arraez can get on base so I'm doubly confused because 'play second, bat second' only really works if the player is terrible, which Arraez is not) 3. Kepler (what?) 4. Sano (yeah, okay, cool) 5. Cruz (yeah, okay, cool, should be third) 6. Garver (okay, you betcha) 7. Polanco (yeah, whatever) 8. Rosario (not doing a great job of L/R splits but okay) 9. Donaldson (SERIOUSLY ARE YOU ****ING TROLLING US)
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Something I noticed about Mauer awhile back to illustrate just how much his career was altered by the concussion: After the concussion, he played 660 games for a .746 OPS and accumulated 10.7 rWAR. In 2013-14 after "bilateral leg weakness", he played 260 games for an .870 OPS and accumulated 10.0 rWAR. It's hard to call Mauer underrated and maybe he isn't outside Minnesota... but he is the best Twin to don a uniform since possibly Carew, maybe Puckett depending how you frame your opinion. He is a top ten catcher in history through his prime years and then he took a shot to the head and it all went to hell. But for those 7-8 years, he was as good as it gets behind the plate.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Or maybe this will be more succinct: https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/coronavirus-infected-jazz-star-rudy-gobert-issues-apology-to-the-people-that-i-have-endangered/ "Infected Jazz star Rudy Gobert issues apology 'to the people that I have endangered'" The dude walked around and licked microphones to show how NOT big of a deal this is. Well, that sure worked out, just as your opinion will surely work out as well. The entire NBA had to shut down because of what he did, which tells you how this all works.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Did it occur to you that viruses spread from contact and that maybe where you live isn't yet susceptible to community transmission? But a baseball player moves all around the country, touching and talking to people everywhere. Maybe your kids' school and a sports league are different somehow. Just maybe.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    What bothers me about this line of thinking is two-fold: 1. First, it's half-complete, at best. COVID-19 appears to attack people over 70 with a ferocity the flu cannot match, though thankfully it also appears to do little to childen. 2. We don't lock down countries for the flu for a reason: because it simply WON'T get that bad most of the time if left to spread through the population normally. As we saw in Wuhan and later Italy and Iran, taking a laissez-faire attitude with COVID-19 leads to disastrous results. But if we take (sometimes severe) precautions and thwart this thing from blowing up in our faces, nay-sayers will jeer and say "see, nothing to worry about here". Literally the only way to convince statements like the above quoted is to let things go to hell in a handbasket and then wag our finger to show them how wrong they were. Not a great solution. I'll err on the side of caution here, considering what we've seen for those regions of the world who did not (and, inversely, the almost non-existent effects of those that did such as South Korea and Taiwan). This is a pretty irresponsible take, diehard.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Before anyone crowns Moncada the next coming, it needs to be noted he had a .406 BABIP last season. He’s certainly a *very* nice player but he’s going to need to keep growing as a hitter to compensate for the inevitable BABIP normalization, which will significantly drag down his future OPS. He can probably compensate somewhat but we shouldn’t be looking at his triple slash and assuming it will only rise in the future.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    The Moncada deal is interesting and one I'd sign in a heartbeat but the Kepler and Polanco deals are outright steals in comparison. Moncada might be the better player in the long run (probably likely) but getting two players for 50% more who are likely to be MLB starters and have pretty big upside themselves is a big get.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Well... I guess? But the thing is that Arraez actually hits the ball hard, which is a pretty big indicator of hitting well. And notice the Twins, one of the more advanced front offices nowadays, didn't try to change him at all and had him jump the line over several players at a very young age. They easily could have called up a few other players but chose Luis over all of them.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    You're really misinterpreting what StatCast tries to tell us if you think guys who hit the ball and hit it hard (but maybe not enough to fence it) aren't getting a shot at the big leagues. The thing is that guys like Revere (not Arraez) don't make the big leagues nowadays because of their launch angle or, more likely, they have it fixed before they hit even hit MLB and are therefore successful. StatCast doesn't hate these guys, it hates bad contact and bad launch angle because defenses are so attuned to groundball contact nowadays.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Edgar Martinez? Frank Thomas? Late 30s DHs who dropped off a cliff at or around 40 aren't that hard to come by but it's a list of VERY good players.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    While I get and appreciate the gist of the article - Arraez is being banked on as too much of a sure thing in Twins Territory - it's missing more than just the launch angle and barrel stuff (though those are appreciated as well). Revere striking out more than Arraez given the decade of difference between their introductions is pretty significant. That doesn't mean Arraez strikes out just a bit less than Revere, that means adjusted for era, he strikes out quite a bit less. While it was mentioned somewhat, Revere not walking *at all* is symptomatic of a lot more than just OBP... it means he didn't recognize pitches, and not recognizing pitches or the strike zone directly leads to bad contact (or missing entirely). Arraez and Revere just aren't good comps, really. But the general idea that we shouldn't count on Arraez being a competent starter, that I can agree with. I think he'll probably do okay but I'm not banking on it.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    An economic downturn, which will lead to a stock market downturn.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I think this is wildly overrated. In-game, mixing pitchers could have a real impact but I just don't believe players get into "a groove" against same-handed pitchers over multiple days and from the data I've seen, that is backed up. In the modern game where the average batter will face three pitchers in a single game, I just don't see how switching up starters day-over-day really matters.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm no longer in the market but I'd also hold and wait it out. But the market is primed for a downturn, I just called it wrong by about 18 months. Is this what causes it? Dunno, hard to say.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Kepler is a farrrrrr better defender than Cave and should (and will) man center in place of Buxton, just as he did last season. Jake Cave can barely man a corner spot competently, much less center.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Provided the creators are smart enough to stick to the source material, you're in for several seasons of really good storytelling in Locke & Key.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Uh... https://twitter.com/morsecode/status/1232030949631811592
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    No one in this lineup should be entrenched anywhere. And Kepler is definitely not the third or fourth best hitter on the team. While I love Max, I'm not entrenching him in any spot of a lineup that contains Donaldson, Sano, Garver, and Cruz. Max is a tier below all of those guys, somewhere closer to Polanco but lacking some of the skills that make Jorge a good lead-off hitter. Max is a lefty, which makes you want to slot him in between those other mashers somewhere but he's not in their league; that's not a knock on Max, it's a testament to just how freakin' good the rest of this lineup looks. On an average team, Max is probably the second or third best hitter. On the Twins, he's probably like the fifth or sixth best hitter.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Actually, the correlation between spring training results and regular season results is extremely weak and the data is considerable. Enjoy the games, revel in the fact that baseball has finally returned, but don't put stock into much of anything that happens before April.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Stop. Hitting. Walls. Byron. He could easily be a $200m player on the open market if he stops hurting himself. Last season showed just how devastating he can be when healthy and hitting.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Ryan unfairly gets credit and blame for those drafts depending who you talk to that day. Personally, I give him neither credit nor blame for much of anything under Smith's tenure, though he certainly influenced some decisions. But you're right that Polanco and Kepler get a ton of credit for the work they put into becoming MLB ballplayers. To swing this back around to the current front office, I don't know if I'd give them too much credit for either Polanco or Kepler, as both players were making real inroads to becoming legitimate MLB players before this front office came around. But I don't need to look any further than Mitch Garver to see how this front office has improved the team. There's no way in hell previous front offices would have put the coaching staff on the field and the methodology in place to turn a tweener like Garver into possibly the best overall catcher in Major League Baseball. In my opinion, the conclusive evidence everyone seems to be searching for in this thread begins and ends with Garver's improvement.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    One team won 59 games. The other won 78 games. Those aren't similar numbers.
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