Brock Beauchamp

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TBR/2012.shtml Tampa is a great match for several reasons. I'd love to see it happen.

I think you're simplifying the Libertarian viewpoint quite a bit. Some of us aren't against legislation entirely (though we are against stupid legislation and/or legislation that doesn't work). My Libertarianism comes from the core belief that the government is not a good service provider. In most cases, competition breeds efficiency and there is no competing force against the government. The government's role is to legislate private industry and prevent them from strong-arming the population into submission, not to avoid legislating entirely. Of course, there are Libertarians who call for much more radical government reform/de-legislation than myself, though after the financial debacle of 2007/2008, I do not understand how they reconcile those beliefs with reality.

Twins: Denard Span CF Jamey Carroll 2B Joe Mauer DH Josh Willingham LF Justin Morneau 1B Chris Parmelee RF Trevor Plouffe 3B Chris Herrmann C Pedro Florimon SS (Liam Hendriks P) Indians: Shin-Soo Choo RF Jason Kipnis 2B Asdrubal Cabrera SS Carlos Santana C Michael Brantley CF Travis Hafner DH Russ Canzler 1B Lonnie Chisenhall 3B Vinny Rottino LF (Zach McAllister P)

Span is considerably more valuable than you seem to believe. Above average up-the-middle guys don't grow on trees. Cost-controlled guys still in their primes are even more rare. If the Twins were looking for an infielder instead of a pitcher, Span probably would have been gone at the deadline. The trick is finding a team that has a surplus of starting pitching and a lack of outfielders. That's the difficult part. Finding value for Span shouldn't be hard in itself... Finding value you need is the hard part.

I have two issues with your assumption of WAR. First, that people say "that didn't happen" regarding a defensive metric. I think it's more "I don't believe that player is good defensively" is more the case. Even Delmon Young has had good weeks in the field, just as Drew Butera has had weeks where he posted an OPS over .800. Second, I believe the problem lies in the absolute versus the abstract. At the plate, we deal with far more absolutes than we do in fielding. A homer, a strikeout, a walk. Those are absolutes that are not very open to interpretation. But even in batting, we see the weak double where the batter got lucky. We see a squibber the fielder should have scooped up but didn't and it resulted in the scorer calling it a "hit". That weak double counts just like a true gapper but no one would argue that it is just as indicative of a player's talent as a liner off the left-centerfield wall. That's where WAR suffers a bit. The defensive side of the metric is open to interpretation instead of hard results that are tracked by stat sheets. There will be aberrations that make a player look better than he should over a short period of time. An unusual number of balls may be hit into part of his "zone" that are difficult to reach. An unusual number of balls may be hit into part of his "zone" that are easy to reach. Over time and repetition, these anomalies should even out. It's not that the math is bad, it's that it's more easily influenced by statistical anomalies. Add in the fact that while a batter gets 4-5 chances at the plate every night, he may only have the chance at 2-3 putouts in a night. Other nights it might be 5-6. In the end, all of that combines into a metric that is unreliable in the short-term but fairly decent in the long-term. And I haven't met anyone who argues that WAR is perfect... Far from it. People usually say that it's a good guideline to use for a player's performance but should never be used as the sole indicator of his play.

Honest question, Brock: Why do you put so much stock into WAR as an assessment of value when you've clearly demonstrated in the past that you have little faith in UZR and other defensive metrics? I agree with what you're saying but the way you've presented this argument isn't very compelling to me. Anyway, like others have pointed out, no one is claiming that Revere is going to be able to replace Span without the offense missing a beat. But the Twins have outfield depth that is only likely to grow going forward, and they have significant needs elsewhere. At this point, Span is probably their most valuable trading chip (outside of maybe Willingham but he's just not going anywhere). Revere is, at worst, a decent placeholder. Also, Shane, why you assuming that Revere is what he is at this point? He's 24, in his second big-league season, and he showed significant improvement from Year 1 to Year 2. When Span was his age, he was just finally figuring things out in Triple-A. As I mentioned to USAChief, I used WAR because it's an easy way to compare pitchers and positional players and gauge their value, even if it isn't perfect over partial seasons (if at all). When putting together that hypothetical situation, I was demonstrating how bigger gains can be had by replacing a guy like Walters with Pitcher X than the drop-off you'd see from Revere replacing Span. WAR was the easiest way to do that without going into complex math and confusing the hell out of everyone (including myself). In the end, all I was saying is "Pitcher X - Walters >> Revere - Span". FWIW, I think WAR is overrating Span this season and underrating Revere so the net loss is even lower than the numbers I used in my original post.

No thanks. It does seem rather inconsistent of you, though, to cite WAR in this thread and then pooh-pooh it in another--when it shows data you discount--all within the space of a few hours. I was using it purely as a hypothetical in that post. Showing that if you subtract from one position and add more at another, you see a net improvement in team play. WAR is a nice easy way to compare pitchers and positional players, even if it's not terribly accurate in partial seasons.

"WAR" and "advanced metric" are not necessarily the same thing. Read TT's post again. It wasn't solely an attack on WAR. He did everything except yell "get out of your parents' basements and learn something".

Denard's WAR seems absurdly high this season. Given WAR's tendency to fluctuate even in a full season of play (2-3 years is preferable for the metric), I wouldn't put too much stock into his 2012 WAR, which is considerably higher than his 2010-11 seasons. Almost 2 of those "wins" come from his defensive play, which Revere can do as well, if not better.

Yes, god forbid that a GM use advanced metrics to supplement an eyeball test. Good GMs just wing it and hope for the best. It's the only way to run a billion dollar operation, really.

I didn't think Revolution was that bad. Then again, I'm a sci-fi geek. I'll watch more of it to see where it goes.

In a trade, it's all about net gain. Let's throw out some hypotheticals. Span is a 5 WAR player this season. Revere is a 2 WAR player. If Revere progresses at all and moves to CF next season, let's say he becomes a 3 WAR player due to positional scarcity. That's a difference of -2 WAR, not including any +/- we'll see from Parmelee (which I think would be at least a 2 WAR player over the course of a season in RF). That's also not factoring in any advancement from the likes of Hicks or Arcia in 2013. So, we need to cover a 2 WAR loss. Well, it just so happens that PJ Walters is almost a -1 WAR pitcher in less than 10 starts. Let's say the Twins can get a decent, though unspectacular, 3 WAR pitcher for Span. That's brings the total to... Outfield: Revere (3 WAR) - Span (5 WAR) = -2 WAR Pitching: Pitcher X (3 WAR) - PJ Walters (-1 WAR in a quarter of a season) = 4 WAR. Net gain? 2 WAR. That makes the Twins a better team and those estimates are very conservative. I think the swing could be as much as 5-6 WAR if Parmelee/Hicks/Arcia pan out and the acquired pitcher is decent.

I'm not convinced that having the meager yet steady 2014 Carroll for $2m is the worst thing in the world. He could be a steadying hand for a young infield.

Hard to ignore Cabrera's 52 (!) more RBI. Trout does lead with 18 more runs, though. Trout is also fading while Miggy is coming on strong. Voters like that. Both are good candidates but i think Cabrera has more of the traditional qualities voters look for in an MVP.

FWIW, I think Miggy just sealed the MVP. 3-4, two homers, six RBI, batting average now up to .333.

Plouffe should have tried to catch that ball with his face. It might have been more effective. Trevor still isn't used to being ~10 feet closer to the plate... Not entirely unexpected. Hopefully it's something he can shore up during the offseason and Spring Training.

I don't understand how the Indians batters can see with all that shrubbery in centerfield. #bringbackthetrees

Yep. He ripped that ball into left. Too bad it was right at Carrera.

Joe Mauer is good at teh beisbol.

Are there even 5,000 people at this game?

Yep, I am. I'm cheering for Mauer and Parmelee (and he's not even playing tonight). Don't care too much about the rest.

While I understand your sentiment, the Twins aren't nearly that bad off. Parmelee is already in Minnesota. Gibson, Hicks, and Arcia will probably make appearances in 2013. And where has Ryan said he's not going to make changes?

That's "best team in baseball", not "contending".

Twins: Denard Span CF Ben Revere RF Joe Mauer C Josh Willingham LF Justin Morneau 1B Ryan Doumit DH Trevor Plouffe 3B Jamey Carroll 2B Eduardo Escobar SS (P.J. Walters P) Indians: Shin-Soo Choo RF Jason Kipnis 2B Asdrubal Cabrera SS Carlos Santana C Michael Brantley CF Russ Canzler DH Lonnie Chisenhall 3B Casey Kotchman 1B Ezequiel Carrera LF (David Huff P)

I was all for phasing him out of the rotation gently a month ago. Give him a day or two extra between starts, pull him an inning early, that sort of thing. Now? I don't think it matters much. He only has three starts left.