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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, the fair use of this is murky at best. It's not an official creation, just a design exercise. It could be argued that it is being used as promotional material but that probably wouldn't stand up in court. Stuff like this is done all the time and since nothing is actually being manufactured or printed, Ford/Target/etc. would have a hard time convincing a judge that it's detrimental to their trademark. Besides, why would they bother with it? It's a harmless exercise that promotes the fact that they sponsor Target Field and the Twins. Reminding the public of that fact is a good thing for everyone involved.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    What a sad world we live in today. Huntsman is the most likable Republican because he doesn't act like a Republican (not a Republican from this era, anyway). And the GOP wonders why a generation of fiscal conservatives have moved to Libertarianism. I don't even like the Libertarian party much but at least they don't make me want to throw up (most of the time anyway). I'm a moderate fiscal conservative and 100% socially liberal and there isn't anything out there that represents me as a voter. I've ended up voting Democrat lately simply because 1) the GOP has lost the right to refer to themselves as "fiscal conservatives" and 2) the GOP's stance on social issues is maddening. Even more than most, I'm left in the "lesser of two evils" camp. At the end of the day, at least the Dems don't want to lock the gay people in cages or put them on an island off the coast of California. And that's a pretty pathetic reason to vote for someone.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, he'll still have to play indy ball and I don't know of a prospect who hasn't left a lot of money on the table by going that route. It's a bad decision and it prolongs his free agency by another year (which would be two years at that point). It was stupid to leave the money on the table he did last season. If he has any faith in his ability at all, he'd easily make that money back (and then a lot more on top of it) with one additional year of free agency during his prime (age 29 or so) years.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    And you have no idea If they have a Good Baseball Body. Easily my favorite scouting phrase of all time.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah... I'd put the chance of Arcia going north with the team out of ST at zero, barring a series of freak injuries to the entire outfield.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Appel had better go in the first two picks or he's going to end up leaving piles of money on the table. He has virtually no bargaining power this draft.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    True. Two of the three guys in NB or higher should see significant time with Minnesota this season (Gibson and Hicks). A lot can still go wrong with this farm.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, if Rosario sticks, it's far less of a problem. There is also Polanco to consider. The team is definitely short on MI talent but pitching is so much more valuable that people focus on it more than the middle infield.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I know he's high on Meyer. I'm high on Gibson as well but the ranking still seems a bit high. It seems to me a team in that position wouldn't be banking so heavily on two guys.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    There is no one in the system who could be called up just three years after signing. Sano was too young when he signed. Gibson got hurt or he'd be here already. Buxton is unpolished and will probably take 4+ years to reach the majors. Michael had potential to do it but fell on his face in the low minors. Wimmers was hurt. High school guys almost never make it within three years and in most cases, it's a good thing (Delmon Young, anyone?). Considering how many high school guys the Twins have taken in early rounds, it's not surprising how few 22-year-olds we've seen in Minnesota. Plus, the earlier a player gets called up, the more likely a team is to lose valuable prime production years as the player leaves for free agency.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Bold ranking. Like Smerf, I'm not sold on a #2 ranking with the lack of arms but there's no denying there is a ton of upside in the system right now.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not really about strikeouts (even though the video talks about strikeouts... they would have been better served by ignoring something so heavily influenced by multiple factors, such as "we have a better pitching staff this season"). As another poster pointed out, the Yankees struck out more people in 2012 as well. Pinning (or even implying) that change is due to pitch framing is disingenuous. Framing leads to a few more strikeouts, yes... But most of its value derives from changing 2-1 counts to 1-2 counts or 1-0 counts to 0-1. This forces the batter into a defensive approach and the pitcher into an aggressive approach where he can use all of his pitches instead of just getting it over.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    You're kidding, right? A few problems... First, you're using oWAR for one player and WAR for another to make Lawton look good. Second, you're using two more years of Lawton's numbers to (again) make him look good, even though the Twins (or the Mets) didn't have him under contract. Rick Reed's WAR: 2001: 2.8/-0.2, 2002: 2.6, 2003: 0.7 Matt Lawton's WAR: 2001: 2.0/0.2, 2002: 1.0, 2003: 1.0 It's a wash and actually slightly in Reed's favor if you want to put that much stock in WAR's accuracy. Like I said, the trade was a wash. Reed didn't pitch well for the Twins in 2001 but it wasn't a bad trade, as Reed was a solid pitcher in 2002 and a mediocre one in 2003.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Huntsman is for civil unions for gay people, strongly emphasizes the importance of science and understanding climate change, and openly states that government has a role in society. He also has a diversified background in a myriad of government roles. Basically, he's the type of guy moderates and independents will vote for, not run away from.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I think it has always been this way. As long as I can remember, people have written off prospects as bums the moment they began to fail. The Internet has definitely sped up our desire for instant gratification but it has always been there.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. A lot of us hated seeing Kielty traded but it worked very well for the Twins and they won that trade handily. Also, hard to call Lawton for Reed anything other than a wash. It was a fine, though unspectacular, trade for the Twins.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Posednik? Good lord, no. The guy is awful at baseball and a step backward from Mastro.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    50 runs. I still have a hard time believing it. Molina only caught 100 games last season. That's half a run a game through framing. More reasonable than some of the numbers we've seen in the past but damn, that's still a huge portion of runs allowed (somewhere around 8% of all of Tampa Bay's runs allowed, despite Molina only catching 60% of their games). It's a tough stat to swallow and I'm incredibly skeptical that a catcher can have that large an impact through one facet of their game. But I love the fact that people are working so hard on refining the metric.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty candid answers from Dozier. Here's to hoping he can turn that into results.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't mean to be condescending about it. It's the same as RBI or wins because it fails to track influences on the metric that drastically alter outcomes. The same way RBI doesn't mention whether you have Drew Butera or Joe Mauer hitting in front of a player, Park Factor doesn't take into account that Willingham might hit 20 homers in a year at home and 10 on the road while the rest of his team hits a 50/50 split. It doesn't try to factor in whether the median temperature was 3 degrees warmer that summer. It also doesn't properly factor if you play in, say, Fenway Park, and face Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder 19 times a year, two guys who could absolutely mash at that park. Or vice versa, where you face the Houston Astros 19 times a year while facing the Yankees three times in interleague. Attempting to compensate for park is a very valid goal and I'd love to see it happen. My only point is that the current tools we have available (particularly ESPN's awful Park Factor) are so half-assed that they are unusable and should be used sparingly (if at all) and never be quoted as definitive truth. You could just as easily be getting information that is completely wrong from the statistic as you are getting something insightful. And when that happens, the metric becomes useless.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I realize that Huntsman scared the conservative base. The thing is that the GOP needs to stop letting those wingnuts drive the party. Huntsman was very electable against a weak Obama. What is the conservative base going to do, vote for Obama? Stay home? Unlikely, because they still want to control their local elections as well. Yeah, the GOP won big in the House in 2010. The thing is that I don't know if they can win anything on a larger scale than that. Having lived in CA for so long, I feel as if the immigration battle has passed. The GOP could have grabbed the Hispanic base easily 20 years ago. They even did well during the Bush years based on national defense (trumped up though it may have been). But now? I think the GOP is going to have to get far less white and get far less old to pull back that base (if they can at all). On top of that, they need to work really hard to shed their racist image, which isn't going to happen when the dingbats in the Tea Party are running around, saying incredibly stupid things. Given how the GOP is run, I don't see them shedding their current image and gaining back independent and minority votes any time soon. They've simply burned too many bridges in the past 20 years and pissed off an entire generation of people who don't fit into the WASP category.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Definitely, but let's not classify him under "international" quite yet. The guy could be looking at $10-20m while Sano got what, $3.5m? The fact that the Cuban kids are being treated differently makes them a much bigger risk and they will require a much bigger payday to acquire. While I'd love to see Diaz come to the Twins, I'm not so crazy about the pricetag that could follow him here.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm well aware of how it is calculated. Did it occur to you that, for example, teams tend to customize their rosters based on home park? Or that individual players often play much better at home than on the road? And that given an unbalanced schedule, the same better (or worse) teams play more often in the same ballparks? Or that weather can impact a ballpark when you're looking at a single season? And that, in the case of a rotation, any kind of skewing of statistics like that over a single season can drastically alter the outcome? I could keep going all day with reasons why park factor sucks. There are simply too many variables that are completely untracked, rendering the metric virtually useless. It's really no different than RBI or wins. I suppose the number tells you something but given how many things it flat-out ignores, there's just as good a chance it's feeding you bad information.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    High praise. I happen to agree with his "sneaky good" assessment. The system could absolutely use more pitching but when you have guys like Kepler barely breaking the top ten on some lists, you have a good ****ing farm system. If Berrios and one of Meyer/May break out this season and anything good happens with one of the college arms, this is a top five system even if you remove Gibson and Hicks as they transition into the majors.
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