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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Play second, bat second.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I've never said Oswaldo was the better prospect. I said pre-injury Kubel was a good comp and thought "Jason Kubel Light" was not an accurate comparison. That's how I entered this argument. And again, when Kubel was higher up in the Twins farm, the system was mediocre. He wasn't competing in a system that had Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Gibson, et al in it. Once Mauer and Morneau cleared the Major League roster, Kubel was the only decent guy left standing. His competition for "top 10 prospect" status was... not fierce.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not participating in these threads because John skipped #11, which meant I couldn't pay proper homage to my idol Rusty Kuntz.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm so going to hell for this one.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Dude, c'mon. They both have birthdays in May. When Arcia turned 21, he was on his way to AA after a short stint in A ball. When Kubel turned 21, he was still in A ball and would be for the rest of the season. Arcia spent the bulk of his age 21 season in AA while Kubel was still in A ball. A year difference. Yes, Kubel progressed a lot in his age 22 season but Arcia hasn't even played his age 22 season yet and already has 300 PAs in AA.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh man. Oh man. Those pictures win all. Also, one has to wonder if that is the infamous "Cat Killing Chair of DOOOOOMMM" in that picture.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    The main reason for the work I'm planning to do is to fix that blasted commenting problem on the front page. It's been maddeningly difficult to pin down. There is already a way to view "first unread post" in the forum. It's the dark grey box with two white triangles inside... It appears after the time stamp to the right of the thread title, in the "Last Post By" area.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I followed Kubel through the minors as well. I remember when he went down in the AFL and how bummed the forum was about it. The Twins needed that offense. And their adjusted age difference is about 350 days. Close enough to a year to call it that. Kubel started his age 22 season in AA and had about 150 ABs there. There's a good chance Arcia starts off his age 22 season in AAA (and even if he doesn't, Arcia already has 300 PAs in AA that Kubel didn't begin to receive until the start of that age 22 season). Again, Kubel was a marginal prospect until he completed his age 22 season. Considering how Arcia has out hit him at a younger age, I think the Kubel comp is a fair one and that "Jason Kubel Light" is the bad comp, considering that age 21 Jason Kubel was not exceptionally good at baseball, nor was he highly regarded by analysts. You keep talking about how Kubel was the top Twins hitting prospect but I don't see why that's relevant. Yeah, he should have been the top hitting prospect because he was the last decent hitting prospect to come through the system until this current batch of hitters we see today. The Twins had already promoted Hunter, Cuddyer, Morneau, Mauer, etc. and Span was never much of a prospect until he suddenly broke out of nowhere. The Twins haven't had many decent hitters in the minors since 2004. It's not surprising that Arcia is overshadowed in a farm system that contains guys like Hicks, Buxton, and Sano... Just as Kubel was overshadowed by Mauer and Morneau during his early years in the system.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Except that you're using Kubel's "age 21 and a few weeks into age 22" season against Arcia's "I just turned 21 a few weeks ago" season. You know as well as anyone here that age does matter with prospects. It matters a lot. Guys are still growing muscle, particularly in their early 20s. A full 12 months may (or may not) do a lot for Arcia's swing, which is already wicked-fast. Right now, Arcia has outperformed Kubel's numbers and has done it at a higher level than Jason if you lock-step their progress through the minors by age. Now, the real test will be how he compares to Kubel's breakout season at age 22. The thing is, he already came close to doing it as a 21 year old.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I've noticed it and yes, it's annoying. I haven't looked into the code that generates it. I'm going to be doing quite a bit of work to the site in the coming weeks and if I remember to look at it, I'll hunt down the offending code and change it.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you're underestimating Arcia a bit. On his current track, he's a year younger than pre-injury Kubel and is down around .100 OPS from Jason's breakout 22 year old season. After posting a .950 OPS as a 21 year old at AA, I think the pre-injury Kubel comp is a fair one. Of course, he's going to have to step it up again in AAA to maintain that comp but for now, it's a decent one. I think "Jason Kubel Lite" ignores what Arcia did at an advanced level last season.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    There are a half dozen reasons not to sign Bourn and not a single good reason to give him a multi-year deal. He probably won't age well, the Twins need pitching more than anything, he's a Boras client, the Twins need pitching more than anything, and the Twins also happen to have no less than three good-to-excellent CF prospects (and a smattering of marginal ones) in the wings, one of which is going to be with the big league club in 2013. Signing Bourn to a multi-year deal requires the kind of stupidity I generally reserve for the New York Mets.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins could have kept Revere and saved themselves $71m if that was the case.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I thought I read somewhere that he was repeating AA. I could be wrong.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Second round picks have more value now. That's pretty much undeniable, as the Twins' second round pick this coming June is #41, #42, somewhere around there. That's 15-20 slots higher than was typical with the old CBA.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Jason Kubel would have been a very different player if his knee hasn't exploded in the AFL. IMO, Arcia is closer to pre-injury Kubel than post-injury Kubel. If Kubel still had mobility and wasn't a liability in the OF, he's a very valuable player. Over his career, his oWAR is 7.7 while his dWAR is -8.8. That's a huge discrepancy and if Arcia can be merely a mediocre defender, his value jumps way over Kubel. As for Kubel being a better prospect... Well, I don't agree with that at all. Jason hit a little better at every level but he was also a level behind Arcia at the same age (before the injury). Once you factor in the age and level difference, they start to look like the same player and you might even give the nod to Arcia. It will be interesting to see what he does repeating at New Britain this season.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Do you have any idea how hard it is to wash "dead catcher smell" from 200 baseball gloves and uniforms?
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I hope they remembered to cut breathing holes in Butera's crate this year.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I love that Houston Astros cluster**** play so freakin much.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    You could start making a list of people who would get screwed by a GOP government but it'd be easier to just write "everybody not white and male" and call it a day.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't bring up defense because he's a corner outfielder. By all accounts, he'll probably end up a mediocre defender. Not a lot to talk about there. As for overall ranking, I don't get too hot and bothered about that (plus, that 60-something ranking is far and away the highest I've seen Oswaldo). Where you put Arcia and Rosario really depends on how you rate potential versus upper level performance. I tend to value performance over potential so I lean toward Arcia.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    How can people be too high on Arcia when he barely cracks the top 100 on many lists? Look at this guy's numbers: 18yo - Gulf Rookie Ball - .792 OPS, 187 PAs 19yo - Appy Rookie Ball - 1.096 OPS, 283 PAs 20yo - A Ball, A+ Ball - .866 OPS, 316 PAs 21yo - A+ Ball, AA Ball - .928 OPS, 534 PAs The guy has been outstanding two years out of four and good the other two years. He's also been a youngster at every level. He'll be in AAA as a 22 year old by mid-season (at the latest). What more do you want out of the guy? The only real weakness in his game is the strikeout rate. Everything else is solid. Also, Rosario is just one year younger than Arcia but is two levels behind him in the minors. Yes, the injury hurt Rosario but that's still a significant gap between the players.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I didn't try to give a reason why New York's strikeout rate went up... In fact, I did the exact opposite by stating that the video's implication that higher strikeout rates were due to pitch framing is disingenuous. There are simply too many reasons why strikeout rates fluctuate, first and foremost being "we found better pitchers this season". What exactly are you even asking? In this situation, you can't affix a static run value to a strikeout. A three pitch strikeout is not the same as a five pitch strikeout is not the same as a full count strikeout over ten pitches. Again, I said that the video's statement about strikeout rates and their attempts to tie it to pitch framing is a terrible idea. Look at increased strike calls, those are what pitch framing will influence. There are simply too many variables that lead to strikeouts and pointing a finger at pitch framing and stating "that's why we struck out so many people!" is so bloody stupid that I can't really fathom why they used it in the video.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Amidst all the pessimism over how badly the free agent market has been handled this offseason, it's easy to forget that with several lucky breaks, this team could easily finish over .500. Yes, it's a longshot. Yes, it's unlikely to happen without divine intervention. But with Mauer and Morneau on the roster (along with Willingham and Doumit), this team will be able to smack the ball around quite a bit of those guys stay healthy (far from a given) and Parmelee and/or Plouffe turn into consistent offensive threats. As for the pitching staff... well, yeah. That's going to require actual divine intervention to succeed.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Unlikely. There is little to be gained except bad PR by going after people who are creating cool conceptual designs with your logo on it. If trademark violation was rampant, they'd be obligated to pursue violators (trademark can be lost and/or weakened if violations are not litigated) but stuff like this usually falls through the cracks because it's good for everyone involved.
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