Post Draft: Who is the Twins' Top Prospect?

12 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Just wanted to say that it would be nice if your better prospects did debut around 23yo, I don't think anyone would disagree with that. The sooner the better, right? But I've never seen a 25yo debuting, or maybe entering his 1st FULL season at that age.

And here's why I personally feel why. A college draftee is usually 21 when selected. (There are exceptions, of course). With the milb season going longer now, and the earlier mandate for signing, most will be able to get 4-6 weeks of action at an A level. The next year they're 22yo, on average, and probably at A+, with the hope of reaching AA at some point. At age 23 they're MAYBE ready for AAA, but probably at AA, at least at the start of the year. So long as they aren't set back by injury and any development issues, 23-24 reaching the majors, even for a cup of coffee, is not out of the question. But again, that's if everything goes about perfect. So to me, being 25yo is really not all that detrimental as to future success and contributions.

And while there were a handful of guys who actually hit the majors in 2020, the large populous of prospects didn't play at all, or were some of the fortunate few who at least got to work out at their alternate sites. But that's still very different than having a full season of playing and development.

And while I don't have any evidence to back it up, I think a number of injuries, especially to pitchers, has been a result of the loss of continuity due to 2020. Personally, when I look at any prospects age right now, 23-24-25, I basically subtract a year. In other words, prospect wise, a 24yo is really 23yo in baseball terms. If that makes sense.

Anyway, just me and my thoughts is all.

 

 

9 hours ago, gil4 said:

have always considered age to be less of a factor for pitchers than for hitters.  He's 25 and his arm hasn't fallen off - that alone puts him in the top 10% of pitching prospects in his age group.

When you go though the league leaders and All Star lineups, most of the players were guys that had at least made the major league debut during age 23 or before. Now there are some exceptions, catchers and relief pitchers tend to be a little bit older. But generally if a guy hasn't had a cup of coffee prior to age 24 he is way less likely to be an all star for example.

There were 20 pitchers that pitched in the all star game, 10 made their major league debut at 23 or younger, which mean 10 were older, the oldest were 25(3) two were relief pitchers and one was Gonsolin. 7 were 24 3 were starters the other 4 relief pitchers.

There were 42 batters in the all star game.

2 debuted at 19,

8 at 20,

9 at 21,8

7 at 22,

4 at 23,

5 at 24, Judge and Alfonso are the big guns, followed by France, Cron and 3 catchers.

2 at 25, (Espinal, why was he chosen over Polanco and Trevino a catcher.

3 at 26. (Cooper, McNeil and Cronenworth) Croneworth seems to be the outlier.

So yes there are guys that become stars or better than just major league players, but it is the exception to the rule not the rule. That is why for me Martin has dropped out of the top 10 he turns 24 prior to next season and if he doesn't make his debut this year (which it certainly doesn't look like) the odds he becomes anything like Arraez and not Nick Gordon go way down

To me I get sick of hearing about the Covid season as an excuse, and it seems mostly to be propping up the Twins prospects to be better than they are, and yest it pushed back most of the players a bit, but the real stars rose to the top. I mean Lewis has missed a season with injury and Covid and still debuted before his 23rd birthday (barely) Bobby Witt missed the Covid season and went from rookie ball to AA.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Oh, you don't have to worry about me sharing my opinions. I'll continue sharing them. Even the bad ones. Cuz what else should I be doing with my time? Actually working at work? Seems like a ridiculous idea!

Well if you work is like mine, they don't care one bit about my opinions on the MN Twins. Can't imagine why?