Which Marginal Twins Pitchers Won't Make It Through the Offseason?

I'll start out by acknowledging what you already know: young and controllable arms are very valuable in baseball. For that reason, none of these decisions will or should be taken lightly. We've seen countless times how a small shift in pitching role, or a minor tweak to mechanics or pitch mix, can completely turn around a wayward pitcher. 

The Twins won't be eager to move on from any of these five, who have all shown some level of potential while pitching on the big-league stage.

With that said, the front office will likely be seeking to shake things up on the pitching staff this offseason, targeting new talents and projects to take on. There are currently four open spots on the 40-man roster, but those could be claimed quickly as the Twins fulfill needs in the rotation and position-player corps.

After being extended arbitration earlier this month, Jorge Alcala will likely be given every chance to overcome his injuries and make the 2024 bullpen, although that isn't a lock. The following five could be considered less likely to make it through the offseason without exiting the organization via DFA or minor trade.

Jordan Balazovic, RHP
Heading into the 2020 season, we had Balazovic ranked as the fifth-best prospect in the Twins system. He would move up to the status of No. 1 pitching prospect when Brusdar Graterol – ranked one spot ahead – was traded shortly thereafter. At the time, Balazovic was coming off a stellar year in Single-A, and at age 21 was on track to eventually impact an MLB rotation.

Unfortunately, since the lost COVID season, the righty has struggled with pretty much everything: control, hits, home runs. The 2023 season was especially tumultuous for Balazovic; he missed time in spring training after an off-the-field altercation, and once again got rocked at Triple-A.

He did break through to the majors with 18 appearances, but gave up 12 walks and five homers in 24 innings. A smokescreen of unsustainable early success gave way to the reality of an overmatched pitcher.

“Jordan was really good about identifying and being honest with the way he was throwing the ball,” manager Rocco Baldelli said when Balazovic was demoted in late August. “He said, ‘I just have to get in the zone.’ … I liked him taking that level of responsibility on. He was very direct and that felt good. He knows what he’s trying to accomplish.”

Balazovic proceeded to issue 11 walks with four strikeouts in 10 innings for the Saints after getting sent down. A brutal end to a brutal year that leaves the 25-year-old's future here in limbo. He still has some traits to like – namely a big frame and a fastball that can elevate in the zone – but it's fairly to easy imagine the front office moving on and picking a new arm to develop with this roster spot.

Josh Winder, RHP
The Twins were very high on Winder coming out of spring training in 2022, to the point that they surprisingly kept him on the Opening Day roster. He was impressive early on, before familiar shoulder issues cropped up and derailed his season. Winder has since been unable to shake those recurring right shoulder woes, and was limited to just 70 ineffective innings between the majors and Triple-A this season. 

He stands 6-foot-5 with a great slider, giving him a strong reliever profile, and even throws 95 to boot. The problem is that Winder's fastball, despite its velocity, has been a batting-practice pitch in the majors, yielding a .537 wOBA this year and .485 last year. Simply non-viable. He turned 27 in October.

Cole Sands, RHP
Sands has been up and down over the past couple of seasons, filling in as needed with 26 appearances (three starts) and 52 innings. The sum result has been a 4.99 ERA and 5.06 FIP – not good. He's in a very similar boat as Winder, running dangerously close to the "Quadruple-A player" designation at age 26 with no real record of MLB success.

I think the Twins will be a little more inclined to keep Sands over Winder because he is younger, has been healthier, and his fastball at least shows signs of being usable. Plus Sands has a really interesting secondary mix that is worth building around as a reliever. 

Brent Headrick, LHP
The left-hander was a somewhat surprising add to the 40-man roster last offseason, in that he wasn't really on the prospect radar. The Twins liked his ability to factor as immediate major-league depth, and they were valid in assessing him as such. Headrick made 14 appearances for the big-league club in 2023, handling the load capably at times.

Still, his performance could hardy be described as impressive. Headrick finished with a 6.31 ERA and 6.10 FIP in 26 innings for the Twins. His performance in Triple-A also wasn't great (4.68 ERA in 75 innings) but as a hard-throwing lefty who can provide length and strike people out, I don't think Headrick is especially likely to exit.

Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP
I don't really believe Woods Richardson is at risk of being dumped this offseason, which is why he's at the bottom of this list. He's young enough to have upside, and seasoned enough to offer big-league depth. But the theoretical upside in his game is fading fast.

Woods Richardson's 2023 season was discouraging in almost every way. His velocity dwindled, his stuff lagged and his numbers were dreadful, even though he was seemingly healthy throughout the season. To put his 19.3% K-rate at Triple-A in some context, it was lower than Randy Dobnak's. 

The right-hander is still only 23 and I suspect the Twins would at least let him loose in a full-time relief role before letting him loose. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if he was a toss-in for some trade package this offseason.

Managing pitchers like these is a delicate balance. You never want to give up too early, but holding too long can mean costing yourself opportunities to roster and develop different arms. We'll see where the Twins land this offseason on these five fringe figures in the team's pitching plans.