What Is Jose Berrios Ready to Show in 2021?

Once again there’s plenty of steam regarding the prospects of a Berrios breakout in 2021. He’s currently got the 5th best odds (16/1) to win the AL Cy Young per Bovada; notably, ahead of teammate Kenta Maeda (22/1). Without considering awards or a defining tag of a result, there’s more to unpack with Berrios in the year ahead.

The last full season we watched Jose Berrios pitch was 2019. He experienced his traditional late-summer swoon turning a 2.80 ERA through July into a 3.68 ERA when the dust settled. Across his final 10 starts he owned a 5.83 ERA and allowed opposing hitters to post an .835 OPS against him. Headed into that offseason the Twins tweaked Berrios’ typical otherworldly training regimen. There were no videos of tires being flipped or cars being pulled. Strength was still the goal but sustaining ability over the course of a full 162-game slate was the intention.

Then there’s velocity. After averaging just over 94 mph on his fastball in his debut season, Berrios had seen a drop to 93.5 mph by 2019. There were outings in which it seemed difficult to register consistent numbers north of 92 mph, and the separation between his fastball and off-speed simply wasn’t there. Wes Johnson has long been suggested as a velo-guru and stealing some ticks going into 2020 was a goal. Across just 63 innings, the results were promising, registering a career high 94.9 mph average.

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So, where does that leave us for 2021? Regarding the former, we’ll see what level of endurance Berrios has built up for the rigors of a full season. 2020’s start and stop nature, along with the truncated schedule, doesn’t provide much in terms of projectability. Jose was much better as the year went on however, turning a 5.92 ERA through five starts into a 4.00 ERA when the dust settled. This was done with dominance to the tune of a 2.79 ERA and .598 OPS against across his final seven outings. With a more traditional Spring Training and offseason program, the hope would be that a slide in August and September becomes nonexistent. In three full seasons the Puerto Rican owns a 3.80 ERA despite never holding serve from start to finish.

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How about the heat? That already trended upwards in 2020 but making much of what should have been a fresh arm all the way through is tough. What we can deduce is that Wes had him on the right path. If there’s any more evidence of that, it came in his latest Spring Training outing. Against the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday he touched 97 mph more than once, and the breaking pitches looked as sharp as ever. In five innings this spring (across two games) he’s allowed two hits while punching out seven and walking just one.

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I don’t really care if Jose Berrios earns the definition of ace. I don’t care if he or Kenta Maeda starts on Opening Day. What I would like to see is the Twins unlock a pitcher that can stay at 95 mph or above, and hold serve throughout the full course of a regular season. If those two things happen for La MaKina, he’ll wind up being nothing short of lights out in the year ahead.

Dream on it Twins fans, that’s the type of arm World Series are won on.

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