Twins at Risk of Sinking to New Low with October Woes

One game proves nothing. Would you rather have Perez or Grienke start? How would you recommend the Twins build the staff for next year, without spending money?

In a vacuum? Grienke. In the real world where, whether you like it or not, we have a budget and that means we can't just spend whatever we want on whoever we want? Berrios, Pineda, and Odorizzi. Unfortunately Pineda but a real dent in those plans.

I would like them to continue to build from within. I would prefer to have a complete team than have 1 ace making 25-30 million a year. This front office has been in place for 3 seasons and have seen the team ERA go from 5.08 to 4.18 through savvy trades and signings while developing the guys in the system. Your refusal to accept that they have a budget they are forced to work within doesn't mean they're doing a poor job.

One game proves that your complaints about this series being a disaster because we didn't trade for Grienke or sign some high priced free agent is just confirmation bias because they didn't do what you wanted. Unless you think that pitcher, or even 2 of them, were both throwing 7 innings of 1 run ball, but that isn't likely.

And the last part of that post mentioned 162 games of evidence, not 1. And, actually, Tampa has been quite good at pitching over the last decade without signing any high priced free agents, and actually letting them walk instead. So there's way more than 1 game of evidence.

I'm not doing any such thing. I'm asking they spend what they spent last year, next year. Nothing more. Not one penny more. 

 

Tampa is an exception. If MN was as good as Tampa, it would be shocking, since no other team has figure out how to do what they do. 

Cleveland seems to do some pretty incredible stuff with their starting staff internally. Word on the street is the guy who do the heavy lifting setting up their system is now setting up the Twins system.

With the increases in salary coming for the carry over guys spending the same as last year means they again won't be bringing in any big name free agent arms. You can let a few of the offensive guys go, but then you need your prospects to step up and replace them to continue to be a strong offense. But if we had traded those prospects for the big name guys like Grienke then you're now looking at not being able to keep all your guys and not having guys to replace them.

Building through the minors is how this team has to do things to stay competitive.

You're ignoring Verlander and Cole.

 

Find me a succesful team that developed all of it's pitching internally.

 

I'll wait.

As in hasn't signed a high priced free agent or traded for a high priced arm?

Tampa (unless you're counting Charlie Morton as big name/high priced at 15 mil)

Cleveland

Oakland

Atlanta (unless you're counting Keuchel as big name/high priced at 13 mil)

St Louis (unless you're counting Miller being bad for them as a key to their success)

Milwaukee

Dodgers

Just to name a few of the playoff teams this season. Internally doesn't mean draft and develop. Building through the minors doesn't mean only guys you drafted or signed internationally. It means not bringing in high priced guys from other teams. It means snagging an electric arm as a secondary piece for Sergio Romo. It means getting guys cheap and turning them into better arms with your system.

Yes, the Dodgers are able to re-sign their studs, but the guys they bring in from the outside aren't the $120,000,000 guys. But go ahead and cut them out if that makes you feel better. 6 other playoff teams this year have pitching staffs built almost exactly the same way as the Twins current staff.

Letting Cron go gives them around 40-60 million to spend. Spend $5MM on a catcher. 

 

You now have 35-55 million to spend, just to get to this year's budget. To get to last year's, you need to spend 5-10MM more......

 

They aren't extending Rosario or Garver. No way Buxton signs a deal. That leaves Berrios and Sano? I don't see Sano signing an extension here, but I guess he might. 

Rosario, Garver, Buxton, Berrios, and Sano will all get raises for next season. Every last one of them. No, they likely won't sign extensions, but that isn't the only way they make more money. Arbitration will ensure their price tags all go up. Rather significantly in a few cases.

No one is arguing with the last point.

 

If you believe the window is open, you can't go into next year with 5 internal options at SP. 

Odo, Berrios, Graterol is a pretty good start to a rotation. I'm not saying never sign outside guys I'm saying the elite arms you're always asking for don't bring enough to the table to offset the deficiencies they cause in the rest of the roster by not being able to afford good players at other positions. 

Part of our differences is that you want a super wide window and are more ok than I am with having that window only open for a short time as long as you make it open as far as possible. I want the window open more or less all the time without being as willing to risk having it completely closed for 10 years like we just experienced.

Dodgers brought in Greinke until they had enough internal options....

That's fair. Still 6 other playoff teams that signed cheap FA, traded for minor leaguers or cheap veterans having good years, and developed their own guys. Like the Twins.

Odo is a free agent, who I hope they sign.

 

Gaterol is not likely to start the year in MN as a starter, but I could be wrong about that.

 

The window won't be open next year w/o adding pitching to the one guy they have right now. Adding Odo is a good start. Instead of spending money on Perez and Cron, they could have signed a better pitcher. A team on a budget can't afford to spend 5-8MM on mediocre/bad players. 

It is very hard to survive with having mediocre/bad players making 5-8 mil, yes. It is way harder having guys make 2,3,4, or 5 times that much and being mediocre/bad. Like every bullpen guy not named Ottavino that signed this last offseason for 10+ mil. It's easier (and in my opinion smarter) to sign 2 guys at 5-8 each than one guy for 10-16. Or sign 4 guys for 5-8 instead of 1 guy for 20-30. Those signings have to be done smartly and with clear ideas on how to get the guy you sign to improve and start putting up better numbers. Like Perez in the first month. Pitching staffs have become more about the number of options you have than relying on a few big priced guys. Especially bullpens.

I agree with all of that. I preached all of last year that they should be bringing guys up and down from AAA for the pen. Instead, they brought in a bunch of guys that could not be optioned, and now Nick Anderson is very good. This year they didn't do that, and Gonsalves got hurt (though I think they would have used him as a starter) and Romero has forgotten how to pitch. I think they can pull a bullpen together, if they move some of the "meh" starters to the pen. They can't do that if they don't bring in outside starters until Gaterol and Blazovich and one other guy is ready.......

Agreed.

That's patently false.

 

The bulk of Atlanta's rotation is home grown. 

 

That's it. You have to do all of that stuff, AND add quality, to be successful. By the time the Twins minor league supplies the kind of pitching necessary to compete in the post season, if it ever does, much of the current roster won't be here any more. And then people will be saying just wait for the minor leagues to supply a lineup.

 

Go big, or go home.

What part is false? Signing cheap free agents? Trading for minor leaguers or cheap vets having good years? Developing their own guys? 

What does "adding quality" mean? Signing cheap vets? Cuz that's what the 6 teams I listed did.

Milwaukee, Atlanta, Tampa, St Louis, Oakland, and Minnesota all made the post season without "going big." So again, what part is false?