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    5 Reinforcements Who Can Make a Pivotal Impact for the Twins This Year


    Nick Nelson

    One of the most intriguing aspects of the 2023 Minnesota Twins is how their roster is set up to receive progressive waves of key reinforcements over the course of the campaign. 

    With the team off to a strong start, these late arrivals stand to play a critical role in sustaining and bolstering the team's success as the marathon MLB season plays out.

    Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson, Jeffrey Becker, Dave Nelson–USA TODAY Sports

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    We all know that injuries and attrition are inevitable during the baseball season. This reality has been made painfully clear to Twins fans. So it comes as a nice change of pace here in 2023 that players joining the fold, rather than exiting it, is a storyline worth looking forward to.

    The Twins have already lost several players to the injured list in the early weeks, and they're certain to lose more in the months ahead. But there are a handful of difference-makers in the wings, either working back from injury or waiting their turn, who are capable of offsetting some of this inevitable attrition, while adding strength to a team that has already jumped out to a strong start in the Central.

    While the timelines aren't firm, we can confidently expect all five of the players below to join the Twins at some point this spring or summer, barring injury or the unforeseen. Each has the ability to make a substantial impact on the team's fortunes, going well beyond your typical role player or wild-card rookie.

    They are listed below in order of estimated arrival, starting with a former All-Star shortstop whose return is growing imminent.

    Jorge Polanco, 2B
    ETA: Late April

    Polanco was slowed in spring training by lingering knee soreness, so the Twins and trainer Nick Paparesta decided to take it slow with him, employing an extended build-up approach that spilled over into the regular season. Polanco doesn't appear to be all that far behind, however – he initiated a Single-A rehab stint shortly after the season started, and is now six games in.

    The 29-year-old seems to have reached a good place physically, evidenced by the fact he played a full game for Fort Myers on Saturday night, then started and played a full noon game on Sunday. He's in line for a move up to Triple-A in the near future, and from there, a return to the majors could happen within days.

    With the Twins offense struggling to find traction, Polanco's bat could be a godsend. He has a 111 career OPS+, including 117 since 2019, and even last year while slowed by the knee issues, Polanco's production was 16% better than average. His switch-hitting stick with patience and power can revitalize the top of the lineup, which has been noticeably short on weapons in his absence.

    Alex Kirilloff, 1B
    ETA: Early May

    Recovering from a second straight offseason wrist surgery, Kirilloff is a little behind Polanco's timeline but not by much. Both players started back-to-back games at Single-A for the first time over the weekend, and Kirilloff is starting to get the regular reps he needs following an offseason and spring disrupted by his gradual rehab.

    Given the circumstances, I assume the Twins will opt to use the entirety of Kirilloff's 20-day window, which leads right up to May 1st. But barring a setback or reassignment, he'll need to be up to the majors by then, giving him five months to try and finally establish himself at the major-league level.

    We've seen flashes of what AK is capable of during his time with the Twins, but never for a prolonged period thanks to the recurring wrist issues. Time will tell whether those are resolved, but when he's right Kirilloff is legitimately capable of being the best hitter in the Minnesota lineup – a power-hitting, run-producing force in the heart of the order. Or: exactly what this team could use right now.

    It's reasonable to be skeptical of getting that version of Kirilloff, and to wonder if the last-ditch procedure will deliver the desired results after so many starts and stops. But the fact that Kirilloff is already well into his rehab, ahead of the expected schedule, and playing quite well – he has a .900 OPS through four games – sure seems promising.

    Bailey Ober, SP
    ETA: May

    Unlike Polanco and Kirilloff, health is not the factor holding Ober back from the majors, but rather an intentional abundance of starting pitching depth for the Twins. Minnesota's rotation success has been the story of their season thus far, and the presence of Ober helps you believe they can keep their front-to-back excellence clicking long-term.

    The addition of Pablo López late in the offseason was bad news for Ober, ticketing him to open in the minors despite his proven big-league track record. But it was great news for the Twins, precisely because it shifted Ober to Triple-A, where he's now serving as stellar rotation depth, ready to step in should anything go amiss.

    The Twins have been fortunate so far in terms of rotation health, with mostly everyone looking strong and healthy. I say "mostly" because Kenta Maeda has experienced some fatigue – not too surprising or concerning at age 35 after a year off – and was skipped for his latest turn. Ober probably would've been the fill-in had the decision had been made a day earlier. Instead it was Louie Varland, another notable depth piece in this rotation mix.

    Varland pitched well, and he adds confidence to this unit's outlook, but not to the same degree as Ober, who's fully proven himself as at least a mid-rotation starter in the majors and looked flat-out fantastic in spring training.

    Ober's timeline is a little harder to peg than others on this list because unlike the others, it's dictated by matters outside of his control. He's simply waiting for an opportunity to arise. 

    With that said, I have to think one way or another Ober will be up by the end of May if he's healthy and throwing well. I can't envision the team leaving a 27-year-old Ober sitting in the minors for anything approaching half the season. 

    Royce Lewis, UTIL
    ETA: June

    In his brief major-league debut last season, Lewis showed everything that made him a first overall draft pick and fixture near the top of prospect rankings for years. He was an electric force on the field, making plays with his athleticism and smashing drives with his bat. He looked capable at shortstop while flashing a skill set that can play almost anywhere.

    It all came to an end too soon, of course, but Lewis is now in the late stages of his lengthy rehab trail from a second straight ACL tear. While nothing is a given in that situation, all signs have been positive. Lewis looked mostly unencumbered while taking part in workouts during spring training, and was cleared to run bases and take live batting practice by the end. 

    At the time, the Twins said they hoped to have Lewis playing in minor-league games around mid-April, and while I've not heard anything on him specifically of late, I would guess we'll receive an update on his next milestone soon. 

    Because he is on the 60-day injured list, Lewis is unable to return before June regardless of how well he takes back to the field. However, the Twins set a 12-to-13 month timeline when he underwent surgery on June 21st of last year and he sure seems to be tracking toward the front end of that. 

    If this pace holds, the Twins might get Lewis for a majority of this season, providing a jolt for the second half that could prove highly consequential.

    Brooks Lee, INF
    ETA: July

    Unlike everyone listed above, Lee has yet to appear in the major leagues. His impact is entirely theoretical in comparison to those more established commodities. He's also in just his full professional season. How much can you realistically expect from the kid?

    Normally I'd say, not that much. And it's why I didn't include other near-ready prospects on this list like Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner, and Austin Martin – even though I could envision any of these talented youngsters coming up and making a real difference. It's just hard to take for granted that'll happen instantly, for reasons made evident during the brief MLB glimpses from Julien and Wallner. It's a very difficult transition!

    Yet I can't help but set that instinct aside when I look at Lee. There's something different and special about him, and it was very noticeable in spring training, where he piled up MLB shortstop reps as the youngest player in camp, handling it all with aplomb. 

    Last year he worked his way to Double-A during a two-month pro debut, and now he's back there at age 22, batting .323 with an .898 OPS through his first eight games. 

    There are a variety of different ways Lee could slot in for the Twins, even as he continues to play shortstop exclusively at Wichita. His switch-hitting bat is the real attraction, and the club will be hard-pressed to keep it bottled in the minors all summer if they feel he can help their contending cause.

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    On 4/19/2023 at 7:03 AM, dxpavelka said:

    Seems like you've got little choice.  Meanwhile, while you wait, your squad's on pace to score 638 runs.

    After last night, they're on a pace to score 693 runs, surrender 486 and win 99 games. Which would be 9 or 10 games under their pythagorean expectation based on the runs. That does track, since they're currently 1 game under the expectation. Safe to say we all know which game it was.

    I think we can cool it with the 'on a pace' stuff, since single games still play pretty heavily into the pace. Heck, yesterday EJ was a failure. Today his OPS+ is 121, with a pace for 46 homers and 70 singles.

    Several key contributors have hit way below career averages. It can (and should) be argued that Solano, Gallo, Vazquez and Jeffers have been better than career based expectations. Julien's contributions weren't figured in, so that makes 5 people giving more than you could expect. Maybe Larnach is right around where you might expect. Kepler and Taylor are definitely around where most would think. But Bux, Miranda, Correa and Gordon? Way below. The offense will improve just through regression and some of these reinforcements.

    The pitching probably will decrease a little because of the same. However, P Lopez and J Ryan have added to their arsenals so improvement is very likely sustainable. The other three have been solid throughout their careers. While I think 99 might a big number, we are looking at what would (if healthy) should be a 90 win team this year.

     

    1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

    After last night, they're on a pace to score 693 runs, surrender 486 .....

    The pitching probably will decrease a little 

    Last year the Dodgers had the best runs-against total in the majors with 513.  So yeah, pitching probably can be expected to regress.

    9 hours ago, August J Gloop said:

    After last night, they're on a pace to score 693 runs, surrender 486 and win 99 games. Which would be 9 or 10 games under their pythagorean expectation based on the runs. That does track, since they're currently 1 game under the expectation. Safe to say we all know which game it was.

    I think we can cool it with the 'on a pace' stuff, since single games still play pretty heavily into the pace. Heck, yesterday EJ was a failure. Today his OPS+ is 121, with a pace for 46 homers and 70 singles.

    Several key contributors have hit way below career averages. It can (and should) be argued that Solano, Gallo, Vazquez and Jeffers have been better than career based expectations. Julien's contributions weren't figured in, so that makes 5 people giving more than you could expect. Maybe Larnach is right around where you might expect. Kepler and Taylor are definitely around where most would think. But Bux, Miranda, Correa and Gordon? Way below. The offense will improve just through regression and some of these reinforcements.

    The pitching probably will decrease a little because of the same. However, P Lopez and J Ryan have added to their arsenals so improvement is very likely sustainable. The other three have been solid throughout their careers. While I think 99 might a big number, we are looking at what would (if healthy) should be a 90 win team this year.

     

    Some of those offensive number will improve.  Some will also regress.  Especially those far outpacing career based expectations.

     




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