The Case For Signing Antonio Bastardo Long-Term

There were a couple of primary reason for why the Twins should be cautious about signing Antonio Bastardo to a long-term deal. They include:

1.) He walks a ton.

2.) He’s been inconsistent (as are most relievers)

3.) The Twins have a ton of arms that could potentially be ready anytime from Opening Day through the middle of the 2017 season.

4.) The reality is that if he’s so great, someone would have given him the same three year, $18 million deal that Tony Sipp got. Right? (or maybe the other 29 teams are wrong too?)

But there are several reasons that the Twins should strongly consider signing the hard-throwing left-hander to a multi-year free agent contract. It doesn’t make the above reasons wrong, but there are reasons to believe that he could really help the Twins bullpen for a couple of years.

First and foremost, as much as I love to tout the minor leaguers and believe that a good organization needs to build from within, counting on minor leaguers before they get to the big leagues is risky as well. Signing relievers to free agent contracts (which, by definition, is a huge risk), but so is relying solely on internal options.

As much as I believe in prospects like Nick Burdi, Jake Reed, JT Chargois, Mason Melotakis, Taylor Rogers and others throughout the system, the reality is that not all prospects make it and become what we think and hope they will.

Twins pitchers and particularly the bullpen need more strikeouts. Antonio Bastardo can get strikeouts. As many walks as he has, he has a lot more strikeouts. His strikeout rates since 2010 have been 12.5, 10.9, 14.0, 9.9, 11.4 and 10.0. That is pretty dominant. Though there would be several games where he would frustrate, there would likely be more games when he came into a big situation, he will come through with a big strikeout.

Although he does have noticeable splits, he is good against both left-handers and right handers. In 2015, right-handers hit .210/.311/.315 (.626) against him. Lefties hit just .138/.233/.215 (.448) against him.

I still contend that a one year deal would be preferable, but again, predicting the future is impossible. Glen Perkins and Trevor May will be back in 2017. Michael Tonkin is out of options this year and we don’t know if he’ll be around after this year. Kevin Jepsen, unless he signs a multi-year deal before the season, is only signed through 2016. In other words, the unpredictability of the future does not only mean the prospects, but some of the veterans.

If the back of the Twins bullpen consists for Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May and Antonio Bastardo, that has the potential to be pretty dominant. Also, they will be able to better play matchups.

As we know, injuries happen. They are part of the game, so it's another case for depth being important.

Finally, if some of those prospects can come up and be the fifth, sixth or seventh bullpen arm, that just extends the strength of the bullpen. As important, it means that starters may only need to provide five or six quality innings before handing things off to the bullpen. The strong bullpen will also be important should the Twins make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

So now you’ve seen both sides of the argument. I still personally still prefer a one-year deal, even if it is as much as $7 million over a three year, $15 million. Maybe a nice middle ground would be two years, and $10-11 million. You can even throw an option in there.