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    Should We be Concerned About Carlos Correa's Early Struggles?


    Hunter McCall

    Carlos Correa has struggled mightily to start the 2023 season. Is there cause for concern?

    Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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    In January, the Twins re-signed Carlos Correa to a $200M contract. A couple of weeks in, Correa has yet to exactly live up to the lofty expectations of signing such a lucrative deal. Through ten games, Correa is hitting just .182 with a .492 OPS. On top of that, Correa has missed several games with mid-back spasms. Many Twins fans have expressed their displeasure with Correa's early performance. He was even booed by home fans in the home opener following his third strikeout of the game in the top of the tenth inning. Should we be concerned about the star shortstop?

    The short answer? No.
    On April 27th, 2022, 16 games into the season, Correa was hitting just .167. He came up in many big spots and failed early in the season. Much was made of Correa's slow start at that time too, but he worked through his struggles, put together an excellent season, and earned every dollar (and one could argue more) given to him on his contract.

    So, what's the reason for Correa's early struggles?
    For starters, Correa is chasing out of the zone far too often. According to Baseball Savant, Correa is in the 22nd % in chase rate, which has resulted in him also being in the bottom fourth of the league in strikeout percentage.

    Correa is aware of the analytics and has often raved about his teammates' performances by referencing their Baseball Savant page. He knows he's struggling, and he knows the reason for it. As a player constantly looking for ways to perfect his craft, Correa will take every opportunity to fix this area and return to his usual superstar self.

    Another reason for his early struggle may have been the tightness in his back. Correa has been affected by back pain in the past, and while he stated this was a different part of his back than he has dealt with in the past, it is likely just as bothersome. When manager Rocco Baldelli announced Correa had been scratched from the starting lineup on Monday, he noted that Correa had been dealing with this minor injury for a few days, meaning it could've been hindering his play.

    How about the reasons for optimism?
    Going back to Correa's Baseball Savant page, there are some promising numbers to offset the negative numbers. Correa is in the 93rd percentile in max exit velocity, meaning when he hits the ball, he hits it harder than most players in the league. He is also above league average in average exit velocity and barrel percentage, inferring that he has been hitting the ball hard when he doesn't chase out of the zone and strike out.

    On top of hitting the ball hard, Correa has also shown improvement in the field in the small early-season sample size. Last year, Correa ranked in just the 18th percentile in outs above average, accounting for -3 OAA on the season. In the young 2023 season, Correa is in the 85th percentile in OAA and has accounted for +1 OAA. The sample size is small, but it is an encouraging sign that Correa could return to form as an elite defensive shortstop.

    To summarize, Twins' fans need to relax with the criticism of Carlos Correa. I understand the high expectations, but the guy gets booed enough on the road. He doesn't need to hear it at home too. He has been a slow starter at times, but as someone dedicated to studying the game and analytics, I am confident he will turn it around and produce at a high level.

    What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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    On 4/14/2023 at 9:57 AM, Hunter McCall said:

    So we're upset that a superstar shortstop eventually signed with us? Also, the health concerns were about the ankle, which too this day he has never received treatment on. He eventually signed with the Twins, I think holding a grudge over the fact that he originally agreed to two better offers to go elsewhere before the deals fell through resulting in him returning is a little silly.

    Two better offers when he had a three-year deal (he had no intentions on following). You can continue to let these 'star athlete's' off, I still feel it was shady and he held the Twins fans hostage. He knew he could always fall back on the Twins and we would fall all over ourselves to re-sign him. Contracts only mean something if you are the little guy...

    When you say he has not received treatment for his ankle, you do mean since he had the pins and rod placed in there, correct? Because I would call that 'treatment'. I do not blame teams that had planned on investing all that money into him to ask questions and have their doubts.

    22 hours ago, Kipp35 said:

    Two better offers when he had a three-year deal (he had no intentions on following). You can continue to let these 'star athlete's' off, I still feel it was shady and he held the Twins fans hostage. He knew he could always fall back on the Twins and we would fall all over ourselves to re-sign him. Contracts only mean something if you are the little guy...

    When you say he has not received treatment for his ankle, you do mean since he had the pins and rod placed in there, correct? Because I would call that 'treatment'. I do not blame teams that had planned on investing all that money into him to ask questions and have their doubts.

    Okay, you can continue to hold a grudge over Correa because he didn't originally take less money to come running back to the Twins. What a weird argument. He was offered two $300M deals. There isn't an athlete in the game who would've turned down the offers from the Giants or Mets to accept the Twins' worse offer. He owed the Twins nothing. I choose to be very happy that one of the biggest stars in the game eventually landed with the Twins in free agency.

    As far as his ankle, obviously I was referring to the fact that he hasn't had treatment on it since his original injury, but go off I guess.

    On 4/21/2023 at 8:35 AM, Hunter McCall said:

    Okay, you can continue to hold a grudge over Correa because he didn't originally take less money to come running back to the Twins. What a weird argument. He was offered two $300M deals. There isn't an athlete in the game who would've turned down the offers from the Giants or Mets to accept the Twins' worse offer. He owed the Twins nothing. I choose to be very happy that one of the biggest stars in the game eventually landed with the Twins in free agency.

    As far as his ankle, obviously I was referring to the fact that he hasn't had treatment on it since his original injury, but go off I guess.

    Well, he got less than what the Twins originally offered him before those $300mm offers, so that didn't work. Also, Hrbek turned down twice the money from the Tigers to stay with the Twins. There are other examples, but sure, NO athlete would turn down money.

    It’s now May 20th and, YES, we should definitely worry. 


    How is this not the current front page topic on TD.?


    The underperforming offense has been undermining the overperforming pitching and somehow Carlos Correa is escaping his role as the figurehead of one of the league’s worst offenses. His .669 OPS continues to be a real problem.




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