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    SEA 7, MIN 4: Sweepless in Seattle


    Andrew Gebo

    Going into Sunday’s action, the Twins were looking to accomplish two things: Stretch their season-long win streak to six games and complete a four-game road sweep of Seattle for the first time in franchise history. Unfortunately, they were denied both and they boarded a plane to Los Angeles looking to begin a new winning streak.

    Image courtesy of © Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score

    Gibson: 6.0 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 64.8% strikes (59 of 91 pitches)

    Home Runs: None

    Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (4-for-5)

    WPA of +0.1: Polanco .252

    WPA of -0.1: Cron -.168, May -.171, Gibson -.301

    ccs-8747-0-20137200-1558308378.png

    (chart via FanGraphs)

    Buxton Hitting 9th

    There is not much to gripe about when a team is playing this well. The early season success indicates Rocco Baldelli has pushed all the right buttons. However, having Buxton continue to hit ninth, especially in a matchup like today's, is perplexing.

    Slightly more than a quarter of the way through the season, Buxton is leading all ninth-place hitters in hits (39) and home runs (4). Byron has also been the Twins' second-best hitter when facing left-handed pitching. Going into the game, he was hitting .400/.444/.640 with a 1.089 OPS, second only to CJ Cron, who has crushed lefties to the tune of .393/.438/.964 and a 1.402 OPS.

    Those numbers alone are not indicative of a number nine hitter. It becomes even more perplexing when considering today’s lineup featured Ehire Adrianza, and Luis Arraez making his first big league start. Both of who were slotted higher than Buxton in the lineup. Byron has been enjoying the breakout season we have all been waiting for, so this very well could be a case of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

    Buxton went 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts, but also drew a walk and scored a run. There wasn't much offense to speak of for the Twins. Lead off man Jorge Polanco had four of the team's seven hits, all of which were singles.

    Trading Zeros Early

    While the Saturday night game featured a lot of early offense, Sunday proved to be quite the opposite. Neither team pushed a run across through the first three innings. The only real threat came in the top of the third, when the Twins had the bases loaded and two outs with C.J. Cron at the plate. He was unable to drive in a run, adding to the Twins struggles with two outs and runners in scoring position.

    Offense Wakes Up

    Finally, in the bottom of the fourth, the Mariners drew first blood. With back-to-back doubles from Edwin Encarnacion and Domingo Santana, they took an early 1-0 lead. Much like they have done all year, the Twins responded immediately.

    Following back-to-back walks to open the fifth, Polanco dropped down a beautiful bunt and a throwing error by the pitcher allowed a run to score, tying the game at 1-1. Like we’ve come to expect, the Twins did not stop there. Buxton scored on a weak chopper back to the pitcher off the bat of Jonathan Schoop and the Twins added a third run of the inning thanks to an error by the Mariners shortstop, J.P. Crawford. Perhaps most impressively, they scored three runs in one inning without hitting a home run.

    Much like they did to Berrios on Saturday, the Mariners feasted on Kyle Gibson in the fifth inning. After surrendering a leadoff double, it looked like Gibson was about to wiggle out of the jam with two quick outs. Mitch Haniger had other ideas, however, as he blasted a two-run home run to tie the game at three. The very next batter, Daniel Vogelbach, launched a solo home run, giving the Mariners a 4-3 lead.

    7th-Inning Stretch

    The Mariners were able to stretch their lead to 7-3 in the bottom of the seventh. Trevor May retired the first two batters he faced, but then appeared to lose control of the zone. He issued a pair of two-out walks, fell behind Edwin Encarnacion and gave up a three-run blast.

    Closing It Out

    The Twins offense showed a little life in the ninth. They managed to get two runners on and a one-out single from Polanco drove in a run. With Schoop representing the tying run, he flew out to deep right field and that was the ballgame.

    A sweep would have been ideal, but it’s hard to imagine anyone being upset with a 3-1 record in a four-game road series. The flight to Los Angeles will likely still be a happy one.

    Postgame With Baldelli

    https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1130256951495938048

    Bullpen Usage

    Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

    ccs-8747-0-93183200-1558308389_thumb.png

    Next Three Games

    Mon at LAA, 9:07 pm CT (Odorizzi-Pena)

    Tue at LAA, 9:07 pm CT (Pineda-Cahill)

    Wed at LAA, 8:07 pm CT (Perez-Harvey)

    Last Game

    MIN 18, SEA 4: Sharks Eat Mariners

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    Featured Comments

     

    Don't understand why Berrios was removed in game 3 one third of an inning away from a W still with a nice lead unless he had tweaked something.

     

    The pitchers know that W is one of the least important pitching stats. Berrios had long stretches on the bench between innings and had lost it as a result. Rocco had to get him out and everyone, including Berrios, knew it. It's just not a big deal.

     

    Coaches were telling Buxton to bunt since he was first called up. It did NOT work out well.

     

    I hadn't heard this, and it does make me curious. Was he resistant to bunting? Did he claim he couldn't bunt? Those are the only two reasons I can think of for not being "able" to bunt.

    Mr.Brooks posted in reply to my question about Berrios in game 3 of the series, "The team shouldn't make decisions for no other reason than padding a player's personal stats. It matters if the team wins. Which pitcher gets that W on his baseball card is meaningless."

     

    I fully understand that and was not able to see the game but if I was Berrios I would be a little ticked unless I had totally lost it was hurt. Starting pitchers live and die by wins and losses and all he needed was a chance to get one more out. Rocco must have been irritated beyond Berrios simply having a bad inning. If he (Berrios) was unable to locate anything, I could see it.

    No financial decisions are made based on individual wins anymore. If Berrios is upset, it's because he puts his individual stats over the team, which would be very disappointing to me.

    I think that if he is upset though, it's at himself for pitching poorly, not at Baldelli for removing him.

     

    We have an analytics department analyzing every little detail just to find slight advantages, for the purpose of making our team just a little bit better and using a "somewhat static" "small fluctuating" "almost permanent" slotting totally ignores any slight advantage uncovered by metrics.

     

    Perhaps the analytics department determined that the best way to approach batting order is to determine who are the most likely hitters to perform well, based on more than the past 20 PAs, and trust that over time that will play out better than trying to predict who will go 2-4 tomorrow based on who went 2-4 today.

     

    Perhaps

     

    But... I'm not suggesting that it should be that reactionary. I'm asking the question... what damage is done if players hit in different spots in the lineup day to day? What damage is done if Buxton hits 9th and then moves to 1st and back to 9th? 

     

    It's May 20th. 

     

    Buxton has 142 AB's with an OBP of 335 and Kepler has 159 AB's with an OBP of .315. Kepler is getting the extra AB's by consistent hitting 1st while Buxton hits 9th. Why would it all fall apart if they swapped positions. 

     

    Why does Astudillo simply plug into whatever spot in the order belongs to the player he's replacing. They bounce the turtle all around the lineup... Why can't they bounce Buxton around without injuring the consistency. Why is the Consistency important? 

     

    Legit questions that will be very difficult for anyone (including Baldelli) to explain to me.  :)

     

     

    This is my assumption as well. Analytics may have derived an optimal lineup based on everyone's hitting profiles. And from a more qualitative perspective, there's something to be said for consistency and keeping every day the same regardless of how yesterday went. You don't have to think about how your lineup slot that day impacts your role, or how hitting behind/in front of someone different changes how you're pitched to. Maybe none of that really matters much, and I agree with Riverbrian that I expected to see matchups factored in a little more. But it's awfully tough to argue against a strategy that's resulting in one of the best offensive outputs in the league (and the best we've ever seen from a Twins team).

     

    Absolutely agree... I can't argue against a strategy that's resulting in one of the best offensive outputs in the league. 

     

    Actually I can and I kinda am but I really don't spend a lot of time worrying about the batting order so I don't want anyone to think that I'm losing sleep over it.

     

    I just don't understand the asset of a template and I don't understand what consistency provides the hitter in the batter box. I mainly think it's ok to try and get Buxton (specifically) some more AB's. 

     

     




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