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    Rebooting Royce Lewis

    It feels like a big part of the Minnesota Twins' coaching staff overhaul was predicated on reawakening their dormant young star who's at a career crossroad. We've seen this work in the past.
    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

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    The Twins seem to be intent on trying to win in 2026 versus leaning further into a rebuild and kicking the competitive can down the road. There are good arguments against this course of action, but one of the best in its favor is the presence of Royce Lewis. The former #1 overall pick is 26 years old, in the heart of his prime window, and under team control for three more years. 

    In the past he has looked like a worthy centerpiece for a championship-contending club. Not so much lately. But that ability is in there, and unlocking it again seems to be a guiding focus for the Twins. 

    Making the managerial switch from Rocco Baldelli to his stylistically-similar former bench coach Derek Shelton was driven by a desire to bring in a fresh voice — for the team and, quite specifically I think, for Lewis. It's no coincidence that Shelton went out of his way to visit the third baseman in Texas shortly after being hired.

    Here, Shelton is taking a page straight out of his predecessor's playbook. When he was first hired back in 2018, Baldelli made personal trips to visit Miguel Sanó in the Dominican Republic and Byron Buxton in Georgia, seeking to build initial rapport with players that he knew would be instrumental to the team's (and thus his) success.

    At the time, circumstances were somewhat similar. The Twins were coming off a disappointing season, which was a nightmare for both of the ascending young stars and former top prospects. Buxton, 24, was besieged by injuries and played horribly when on the field (.383 OPS in 94 PA). Sanó, 25, struggled so much that he was demoted from the majors to Single-A in the middle of the season for a reset. Fans were questioning whether these highly-touted talents were the real deal.

    Great examples of the nonlinear path that baseball development often takes. The 2018 seasons of Sanó and Buxton are stark reminders of why no one should be giving up on Lewis after a tumultuous run in his mid-20s. In 2019, Baldelli's first venture as manager, both rebounded as key contributors in a 101-win campaign, and while Sanó has since fallen off, Buxton channeled that breakthrough into becoming a true upper-echelon big-leaguer. 

    The Twins are surely hoping for something similar to transpire in the coming year. Lewis has the talent to help spearhead a turnaround. We've seen what he's capable of on the biggest stage.

    The front office seems to be doing everything in its power to placate him and rebuild his shattered confidence. Lewis complained in 2024 about highly-paid veterans being held to a different standard. One year later, Carlos Correa was gone. More recently Lewis has made comments about not feeling valued or important in the clubhouse. And now Baldelli is gone, replaced by a manager who made a point of immediately visiting Lewis with a message of support and belief.

    There will be other fresh voices in Lewis's ear as well. A new hitting coach in Keith Beauregard who's helped other stalling top prospects (e.g. Spencer Torkelson) get over the hump in Detroit. A new bench coach in Mark Hallberg who brings unique perspective from his fascinating background. And a familiar face on the coaching staff in Toby Gardenhire, who managed Lewis in the minors.

    If the Twins are serious about competing in 2026, rebooting Royce Lewis is priority number one. The roster, the coaching overhaul, and even the managerial hire all point to an organization betting that Lewis’s best version is still ahead of him, not behind. It's a bet they almost have to make, given his lack of trade value.

    Development is rarely linear, and the Twins have already lived through what a well-timed reset can unlock. Whether this approach ultimately works will define the next phase of the franchise, but one thing is clear: everything the Twins are doing right now flows through Royce Lewis. If he reawakens, so do they

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    TopGunn#22

    TopGunn#22 4,223

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    There is no way, in any rational sense that Royce Lewis, as of TODAY would have roughly the same trade value as a Ryan McMahon NYCTK.  While McMahon has shown more on his resume at this point, he's currently on a 6-year, $70 million dollar contract in which the Yanks owe him $16 million for 2026 and $16 million for 2027.  Lewis is under team control thru the 2028 season was paid just $1.625 million last season.  

    Yes, I'll acknowledge that if Lewis struggles for another couple of years, his value will tank.  But just using the model of BBTV as a comparison, Lewis has a value of 19.4.  Prior to being traded to the Yankees Ryan McMahon had a NEGATIVE value.  A. NEGATIVE. VALUE.  

    Sometimes I agree with you, and sometimes I don't.  This is one I don't.  I think you typed that comment as a flippant remark, but didn't fully consider what you were saying.  

    I appreciate that Nick Nelson put this piece out there because it appears the Twins FO is banking on a big season from Lewis.  Other than Buxton staying healthy (because if he's healthy, he WILL produce), Lewis busting out with an entire season of 2023 2nd half and playoffs could actually make the Twins viable competitors for a Division Title or Wild Card. 

    I think there is a LOT of hope on TD that Twins fans will see the GOOD Royce Lewis in 2026.  Realistically, we know the chances are slimmer than better we will.  But without the GOOD Royce Lewis, the Twins have no chance.  

    NYCTK, here is something that I agree with you about, and it's probably not a popular position on TD.  I think NOT trading Ryan, Buxton and Jeffers is a mistake.  Maybe at the deadline they still will, but I'm not sure they wouldn't get value now then at the break.  I could support an all-in rebuild more than an attempt to "compete" in 2026.  

    NYCTK

    NYCTK 3,204

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

    There is no way, in any rational sense that Royce Lewis, as of TODAY would have roughly the same trade value as a Ryan McMahon NYCTK.  While McMahon has shown more on his resume at this point, he's currently on a 6-year, $70 million dollar contract in which the Yanks owe him $16 million for 2026 and $16 million for 2027.  Lewis is under team control thru the 2028 season was paid just $1.625 million last season.  

    Yes, I'll acknowledge that if Lewis struggles for another couple of years, his value will tank.  But just using the model of BBTV as a comparison, Lewis has a value of 19.4.  Prior to being traded to the Yankees Ryan McMahon had a NEGATIVE value.  A. NEGATIVE. VALUE.  

    Sometimes I agree with you, and sometimes I don't.  This is one I don't.  I think you typed that comment as a flippant remark, but didn't fully consider what you were saying.  

    I appreciate that Nick Nelson put this piece out there because it appears the Twins FO is banking on a big season from Lewis.  Other than Buxton staying healthy (because if he's healthy, he WILL produce), Lewis busting out with an entire season of 2023 2nd half and playoffs could actually make the Twins viable competitors for a Division Title or Wild Card. 

    I think there is a LOT of hope on TD that Twins fans will see the GOOD Royce Lewis in 2026.  Realistically, we know the chances are slimmer than better we will.  But without the GOOD Royce Lewis, the Twins have no chance.  

    NYCTK, here is something that I agree with you about, and it's probably not a popular position on TD.  I think NOT trading Ryan, Buxton and Jeffers is a mistake.  Maybe at the deadline they still will, but I'm not sure they wouldn't get value now then at the break.  I could support an all-in rebuild more than an attempt to "compete" in 2026.  

    This is all true. But, as you said, Ryan McMahon has a significantly better resume than Royce Lewis. They have about the same level of bat, but McMahon is legitimately good at 3B and has no lingering questions about his health, that I'm aware of at least. 

    No other team cares any longer about how Lewis was drafted first overall or was a top ten prospect in baseball back in 2019. They care that he's been marginally above replacement level the last couple years. They care that he's a question mark at 3B with a question mark bat to go with it, and a question mark on his health hanging over everything. 

    BBTV is an interesting tool, but this is another example where I don't put much stock in it. Like I said, I believe Royce Lewis is quickly becoming a DFA candidate. A repeat of last season and a DFA is not out of the question at all. Ryan McMahon, for all his faults, isn't a DFA candidate at this point.

    I'm not being flippant, I truly don't believe other teams would offer much more than the 35 and 40 FV prospects the Rockies received for Ryan McMahon. 2 40/40+ FV? Maybe. 

    Just pretending the Mets needed someone like him, I would be quite disappointed if they traded a single 45 FV or higher prospect for him, and absolutely livid if they traded a 50 FV. 

     

     

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,821

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    16 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

    There is no way, in any rational sense that Royce Lewis, as of TODAY would have roughly the same trade value as a Ryan McMahon NYCTK.  While McMahon has shown more on his resume at this point, he's currently on a 6-year, $70 million dollar contract in which the Yanks owe him $16 million for 2026 and $16 million for 2027.  Lewis is under team control thru the 2028 season was paid just $1.625 million last season.  

    Yes, I'll acknowledge that if Lewis struggles for another couple of years, his value will tank.  But just using the model of BBTV as a comparison, Lewis has a value of 19.4.  Prior to being traded to the Yankees Ryan McMahon had a NEGATIVE value.  A. NEGATIVE. VALUE.  

    Sometimes I agree with you, and sometimes I don't.  This is one I don't.  I think you typed that comment as a flippant remark, but didn't fully consider what you were saying.  

    I appreciate that Nick Nelson put this piece out there because it appears the Twins FO is banking on a big season from Lewis.  Other than Buxton staying healthy (because if he's healthy, he WILL produce), Lewis busting out with an entire season of 2023 2nd half and playoffs could actually make the Twins viable competitors for a Division Title or Wild Card. 

    I think there is a LOT of hope on TD that Twins fans will see the GOOD Royce Lewis in 2026.  Realistically, we know the chances are slimmer than better we will.  But without the GOOD Royce Lewis, the Twins have no chance.  

    NYCTK, here is something that I agree with you about, and it's probably not a popular position on TD.  I think NOT trading Ryan, Buxton and Jeffers is a mistake.  Maybe at the deadline they still will, but I'm not sure they wouldn't get value now then at the break.  I could support an all-in rebuild more than an attempt to "compete" in 2026.  

    You are a great poster on TD. I love reading your stuff.

    In my opinion. McMahon and Lewis had similar numbers last year. That's really the only comparison. I guess the other comparison is a cautionary tale. They both hit the major leagues around age 23. 

    McMahon played in Colorado therefore despite 6 years in a row (not counting 2020) of 20 plus home runs.... OPS+ has never been kind to McMahon. He's been pretty consistent average to below average and as pointed out he makes a lot of money due to Colorado giving him a 6 year deal with two years and 32 million left on the deal. 

    I believe that Royce has the talent to be special but if I'm the GM of another team.

    I'm not giving up anything special for him. Not until he shows he can bust out of this thing. 

    Therefore his value is with the Twins. His value needs to be repaired and the Twins are all in on him. He will be given the playing time and nobody will be allowed to take his job no matter how he performs.  

    We will live and die with Royce Lewis.  



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