On College vs. Prep Draftees, Two-Way Players and Other Notes

Jeremy Nygaard provided a recent draft update last Tuesday. He’s your go-to guy when it comes to breaking down the players in this year’s crop and mining information on what the Twins may do, but I found a couple of interesting tidbits of information to share on college guys vs. high school kids I wanted to pass along.

-The most recent No. 1 pick out of college who has made it to the majors is Dansby Swanson (2015, ARI). He played just 127 games in the minors before emerging for the Braves and was 22 years and 188 days old.

-The most recent No. 1 pick out of high school who has made it to the majors is Carlos Correa (2012, HOU). He played 282 games in the minors and debuted at 20 years, 259 days old.

-Of the last 20 Hall of Famers elected by the BBWAA who were draft eligible (no international guys), 12 of them were drafted out of high school. Just five of those 20 Hall of Famers were first-round picks.

-Of the 20 active leaders in career bWAR (again excluding international guys), 11 of them were drafted out of high school. Of those 20, 13 were drafted in the first round.

-Of the last 20 No. 1 overall picks, 12 were position players and it’s split right down the middle with 10 of them being drafted out of high school and 10 out of college.

-It seems to be a generally accepted idea that high school players carry more risk, but the last two No. 1 overall picks who had negative WAR over their careers were both college pitchers: Bryan Bullington (2002, PIT) and Matt Anderson (1997, DET).

So what does all this mean in relation to McKay vs. Greene? Well, nothing really. But it does show that there’s really no way you can say for certain whether it’s better to target college players or high school players.

And it may not be just a two-horse race at this point. There are a few more guys who appear to be in the mix for the first overall pick. It’ll be fascinating to follow the Twins’ process of finding their guy.

The MLB draft is such a crapshoot. Trying to compare a 21-year-old collegiate player to a 17-year-old high school player seems like about as difficult a task as you could assign to an evaluator. McKay has been outstanding, but can you imagine what a 21-year-old Hunter Greene would look like playing in the Big East?

I’d better pump the breaks, Greene doesn’t need any more hype. Sports Illustrated is already calling him baseball’s LeBron James, the next Babe Ruth and they compared him to Noah Syndergaard on the mound and Alex Rodriguez in the field.

No pressure, kid.

Two-Way Players

I don’t know about all this Thor plus A-Rod talk, but Green can hit 100 mph on the mound and has won some high-profile showcase home run derbys. McKay has a 2.15 ERA and 12.8 K/9 on the hill and .390 average with 14 homers, four of which he hit in one game.

Both are expected to be drafted as pitchers, but J.J. Cooper of Baseball America recently speculated that both would still be first-round picks as strictly hitters. With them both expecting to be such high-profile picks, it seems unlikely either will continue to be two-way players in their professional careers, but who knows?

NPB superstar Shohei Otani is such a dominant force on both sides of the game that it wouldn’t shock me for an MLB team to try to develop a two-way superstar at some point. There are always guys here and there that successfully convert from one aspect of the game to another. Rick Ankiel was a major leaguer as a pitcher and a position player, just never both at the same time. Guys like Kenley Jansen, Joe Nathan and Matt Bush (among many more examples) were drafted as position players and converted to pitchers.

The Padres have experimented with using Christian Bethancourt as a two-way player, but he’s currently in the minors trying to develop his feel on the mound. Last season, the Cubs used pitcher Travis Wood in left field three games... that counts for something. Reds reliever Michael Lorenzen has a pinch-hit homer this year. Obviously those are all baby steps, but it certainly seems some teams are becoming more open to the idea.

Former Twins center fielder Jordan Schafer was attempting to convert to a two-way guy for the Cardinals, but his elbow blew out. Same thing happened to Dariel Alvarez of the Orioles in his attempt to transition to the mound. Even Otani is injured right now, but he's just out a few weeks with a strained thigh muscle.

The increased risk for injury is why we probably won’t see Greene or McKay be two-way players in the pros, but I think before too long there will be a handful of two-way role players in the MLB.

UPCOMING

Friday: Eduardo Rodriguez (2.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Phil Hughes (5.06 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)

Current Twins have a .364/.462/.545 line against Rodriguez. In just eight PAs, Brian Dozier homered twice off him. In 43 PAs against Hughes, Dustin Pedroia has hit .390/.419/.829. Ouch.

Saturday: Rick Porcello (4.46 ERA, 1.38 WHIP) vs. Nick Tepesch (-)

No batter in the league has faced Porcello more than Joe Mauer, who has hit just .259/.317/.345 off the defending AL Cy Young Award winner. Tepesch will be making his Twins debut, and could be in line for an extended look with Kyle Gibson being demoted to Triple A.

Sunday: Chris Sale (1.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP) vs. Ervin Santana (0.66 ERA, 0.71 WHIP)

What a matchup, huh? Sale has struggled at Target Field, posting a 4.44 ERA (his career ERA is 2.94). Dozier has three homers to go with a .973 OPS in 41 PAs against Sale. Current Red Sox hitters have hit just .198/.275/.321 over 91 PAs against Ervin.

ADDITIONAL NOTES

-The Twins allowed their first bunt hits of the season Thursday. Only three other teams had lasted this long without giving up a bunt hit.

-Phil Hughes has given up the most contact in baseball. Batters have a 88.3 contact percentage against him.

-The Twins pitching staff has the highest foul ball strike percentage in the league at 30.8 percent.

-Ehire Adrianza’s rehab assignment ends May 10. While down on the farm, he has hit .310/.383/.357 and appeared in the outfield for the first time in his professional career.

-Max Kepler had his struggles in the second half of 2016, batting .223/.304/.391. It was nice to see him put together a tremendous April (.280/.368/.476).

-On Thursday, Eddie Rosario extended his hitting streak to 14 games with a home run. He also drew his fourth walk of the season. It took him 95 PAs to reach that mark, which isn’t great, but last year it took him 158 PAs to get to four unintentional walks.