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    Nobody Wins: The Jorge Polanco Trade

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    After a disappointing year in Seattle, the Mariners have declined Jorge Polanco’s team option for 2025. Let’s look back at last winter’s trade to see if either team can be declared the winner.

    Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

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    On Friday, the Seattle Mariners announced that they were declining the $12 million club option on Jorge Polanco . His lone season in Seattle was a disappointment after the team added him in hopes of bolstering their line-up. In 118 games, he hit .213/.296/.355 (.651) with a 93 OPS+ and a 1.4 rWAR. It was the first time since 2020 that he posted an OPS+ below 112 and averaged a 116 OPS+ since 2018. It was a disappointing year for Polanco, but there may have been reasons for his struggles. 

    His strikeout rate jumped from 25.7% in his final year with Minnesota to 29.2% in his lone season with Seattle. Eno Sarris mentioned that the issues with the Mariner’s batting eye have been “well documented.” He also said he was “striking out more like he normally does late in the season.” This positive sign could indicate Polanco is an above-league-average bat in 2025 if he doesn’t play regularly in Seattle. Polanco also played through knee issues this season and is slated to undergo off-season surgery to repair the patellar tendon in his left knee. Twins fans may remember that the same knee caused him to miss the end of the 2022 season and the beginning of the 2023 campaign. 

    The Mariners acquired Polanco from the Twins last winter in a trade that netted the organization two big-league pitchers (Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani) and two prospects (Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen). Topa and DeSclafani were expected to help the big-league roster last season, but injuries prevented them from impacting the team. DeSclafani never appeared for the Twins after having surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm. Topa suffered a knee injury in spring training and was limited to three appearances with the Twins. He is arbitration-eligible this winter, so there is still an opportunity for him to impact the roster moving forward. 

    Gonzalez was viewed as a borderline top-100 prospect when the Twins acquired him. He spent last season as a 20-year-old at Cedar Rapids, where he was over two years younger than the average age of the competition. In 81 games, he hit .255/.326/.381 (.707) with 19 doubles, five home runs, and a 49-to-23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He is no longer viewed as a top-100 prospect, but he is still young and has time to develop in the Twins system. Next year will be significant for him as he is projected to spend the majority of the season at Double-A, a level where prospects can sink or swim. 

    Seattle drafted Bowen in the 13th round of the 2022 MLB out of college. He spent the entire 2024 season in Cedar Rapids, where he was slightly old for the level. His on-field performance was inconsistent in his first year in the organization. In 72 2/3 innings, he posted a 6.07 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP and 8.8 K/9. Bowen allowed three earned runs or more in 11 of his 18 appearances, and his ten losses were twice as many as any other Cedar Rapids pitcher. Perhaps the Twins can continue to alter some of his mechanics with more time in the organization, or a path to a bullpen role might help with his consistency. 

    Baseball Trade Values posted an interesting assessment of the Polanco trade after Seattle declined his option. At the time of the trade, their trade model rejected the deal because of how much the Mariners were overpaying for Polanco. He was expected to provide Seattle with $9.4 million in surplus value over two seasons, but he provided negative value in one season. Things have failed to go well for the Twins either, but Minnesota is relying on Gonalez to provide value at the big-league level. Topa is expected to make $1.3 million in arbitration next season, so there is no guarantee that the Twins will keep him around at that price point. 

    Polanco is heading to free agency for the first time in his career, and some Twins fans will call for the team to bring back the veteran infielder. As mentioned above, he is a strong contender to be a bounce-back candidate next season, but the Twins have little payroll flexibility. Minnesota is also well aware of his knee issues, and health will continue to be a question mark for Polanco throughout the remainder of his professional career. A reunion would be nice, but it seems unlikely. 

    From Seattle’s perspective, the trade with the Twins looks like a big swing and a miss. Polanco underperformed and was done after one season. Minnesota has some hope of gaining value from other players involved in the trade, but it might be years before the Twins know the full value gained or lost on their end of the trade. 

    Which team won this trade? Does a reunion with Polanco make sense for both parties? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    tony&rodney

    tony&rodney 16,949

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

    No.  I am saying that in terms of the net payroll +/- from 2023 to 2024 that Farmer's cost was already accounted for other than a $715K increase.  Therefore, it makes no sense to allocate the savings from Polanco to Farmer.  Had they kept Polanco instead the net Change would have been Polanco's salary went up $3M and they would have jettisoned Farmer's $5.85 for a net change of -$2.85M.  I said at the time they could have gotten rid of both.

    I just don't understand this defense, however it is constructed, of a trade that did absolutely nothing to improve the 2024 team. There have been dozens of comments and replies that have covered all angles of the trade with Seattle last winter. The Twins  received two minor leaguers (I have watched both), Justin Topa, and Anthony DeSclafaini in the trade. How did this exchange make the Twins a better team is what I asked myself. 

    I'm not looking for a return response from anyone because this is a dead subject. I would only ask that each person satisfy themselves with their reasoning. Disagreement is a positive thing on many occasions because we see separate sides to an issue. I think everyone has sufficiently explained their positions and have their views and it was a good conversation. This is one of the joys of Twins Daily.

    I'm looking forward to how individuals on Twins Daily construct a team for 2025 on a budget of somewhere between $115-135 million. In such an exercise, I am interested in knowing how the rosters constructed may have the ability to improve the prospects of the 2025 team being 1. more interesting and 2. more successful.

    Further, I am hoping that everyone can avoid all talk of the constraints of payroll and the Pohlads. The Twins are competing initially with their AL Central foes. While winning playoff series remains an important goal, winning the division or getting into the playoffs is a first step. Management of the roster is crucial to taking that step. I wonder how this will be accomplished?

    DJL44

    DJL44 16,605

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    29 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

    The timing for off loading a good MLB player for future benefit would have been wrong and therefore even though it may have been better than what actually happened... it was still a bad idea.    

    There was quite a bit of questioning whether Polanco was still a good player. He missed quite a bit of time with injury over the past few seasons.

    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 10,427

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

    I just don't understand this defense, however it is constructed, of a trade that did absolutely nothing to improve the 2024 team. There have been dozens of comments and replies that have covered all angles of the trade with Seattle last winter. The Twins  received two minor leaguers (I have watched both), Justin Topa, and Anthony DeSclafaini in the trade. How did this exchange make the Twins a better team is what I asked myself. 

    I'm not looking for a return response from anyone because this is a dead subject. I would only ask that each person satisfy themselves with their reasoning. Disagreement is a positive thing on many occasions because we see separate sides to an issue. I think everyone has sufficiently explained their positions and have their views and it was a good conversation. This is one of the joys of Twins Daily.

    I'm looking forward to how individuals on Twins Daily construct a team for 2025 on a budget of somewhere between $115-135 million. In such an exercise, I am interested in knowing how the rosters constructed may have the ability to improve the prospects of the 2025 team being 1. more interesting and 2. more successful.

    Further, I am hoping that everyone can avoid all talk of the constraints of payroll and the Pohlads. The Twins are competing initially with their AL Central foes. While winning playoff series remains an important goal, winning the division or getting into the playoffs is a first step. Management of the roster is crucial to taking that step. I wonder how this will be accomplished?

    Lets say the only player they got back would have been Harry Ford and he ends up being a well-above average catcher and contributes for several years.  Would it have mattered that we did not improve the team in 2024?  They lost virtually nothing by letting him go so the cost of that future production would have been zero.  If I offered you $1M on 12/31/24 or $2M on 12/31/25, which would you take?  

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,821

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

    There was quite a bit of questioning whether Polanco was still a good player. He missed quite a bit of time with injury over the past few seasons.

    Those debates can happen with any player... especially from us in the Twinsdaily crowd. Those debates will continue on into the future with other players.

    Gabriel Gonzalez included in the trade indicates to me at least decent value in the eyes of Seattle and in the eyes of Minnesota because of what was paid by Seattle and what Minnesota asked for. Hindsight can justify the questioning by us in Twinsdaily land. Hindsight can even determine weather Seattle was wrong or Minnesota was wrong or maybe both were wrong in the end.    

    In my opinion... At the time of the trade... Polanco was a player who didn't need to be platooned and we needed at least 5 of those upper end types of players who didn't need to be platooned and we had no budget to work with. Yeah... He may have been an injury risk just like Lewis, Correa and Buxton consistently are but we needed those upper end guys because this was a team trying to win today... not rebuild with more prospects.

    We need those 5 upper end guys... Especially if we were going to commit 6 out of 11 spots to players to serve platoon roles. 

    Polanco may have tanked this year in Seattle and not been an upper end guy. But at the time of the trade. Seattle and Minnesota didn't know that he would tank.

    Minnesota then spread the Polanco money around to players who were not upper end guys. 

    Anyway... I can see your logic of getting all prospects. I hope you can see my logic by saying that we needed an upper end guy instead. 

    Jeff K

    Jeff K 1,338

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 11/4/2024 at 9:07 AM, tony&rodney said:

    I won't correct you. Those whom are fixed on knowing how Polanco was going to perform have their position. I accept the differences of opinion. Keeping Farmer and trading Polanco was related per Falvey. It's all good.

    I am curious what you are predicting for Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien for 2025?

    I wish I knew!  Royce Lewis sure seems like a player.  Julien?  Unless Julien turns it around, or someone comes on strong in Spring training, I think Castro ought to play 2nd base more regularly.



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