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    Michael Pineda Will Play a Huge Role During This Division Race

    Cooper Carlson

    By Cooper Carlson

    Earlier this month, the Twins had a few key players land on the IL, the most notable being Byron Buxton. Losing him definitely hurts more than anyone else on the team. But a key member of the rotation also went down around the same time but has since returned. How good has that pitcher been recently? Do the Twins have the depth to take the blow of him going down? How much can he do to help win the division? Keep reading to find out.

    Image courtesy of © David Berding-USA TODAY Sports

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    In case you haven’t noticed, the Twins starting rotation has been a huge area of concern since August began. Jose Berrios has dropped off a bit, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson struggle with consistency and then the number five spot is a fight between Martin Perez and Devin Smeltzer with neither of them doing enough to secure a job. The most consistent and reliable starter recently is Michael Pineda, but he hit the IL as August began and since then the Twins rotation holds a 5.55 ERA, 5.16 FIP, 1.61 HR/9, and 3.94 BB/9.

    Ironically, the Twins lost a key starting pitcher just a couple days after they did not add a starting pitcher at the deadline. That was controversial to some, but that is for a different day. So the Twins came into August fighting for a division, needing all hands on deck, and a few key players, including Pineda, landed on the IL at the worst time.

    People seem to forget this, but Big Mike began the season with four excellent starts before he started to slow down in his first season back from TJ surgery. There was talk about a long term extension before fans wanted to DFA him during his bad period of starts. He was eventually placed on the IL for the first time as a sort of break/precaution to get him some rest. Since his return he had been lights out, holding a 2.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 4.4 K/BB, and .662 OPS against. The funny thing is that nobody really started talking about how good he has been until the start before the most recent, his second, IL stint. Michael Pineda had quietly been putting up ace numbers since the start of June.

    A lot of this success has come from his ability to limit walks. He is fourth in the American League with just a 4.4 BB% so keeping guys off the bases has been key for his success. This BB% isn’t even a career high, so maybe he can get even better in that area, which would certainly be impressive.

    With Cleveland steamrolling through every opponent they face at like a .900 winning percentage, the Twins will need Pineda to return from his stint on the IL and get back into the role he had. It seems as if he stabilizes the rotation every fifth day with a guaranteed quality start. He actually has the second most quality starts on the Twins, trailing only Berrios, so he is definitely reliable.

    If the playoffs began today, Pineda would likely be the number two starter for the Twins, taking on Gerrit Cole of the Astros ... that’s scary, but it’s the truth. A playoff rotation of Berrios/Pineda/Odorizzi isn’t flashy but hopefully it could get the job done.

    Overall, the weight on this entire starting staff has only gotten much heavier with the Indians catching the team and no help for the starting staff being added at the deadline. The front office showed they have confidence in this group to get it done in big games this year so let’s see Big Mike step in and prove the Twins are here to stay. The Indians didn’t have to face him in the most recent series, but if they really want to take the division from the Twins then they have to beat the healthy version of the Twins.

    After this season Pineda will become a free agent and you should not be surprised if he returns to the Twins on a short two-year deal. He has become a solid pitcher and with the Twins having only Berrios and Perez under control, expect the team to make a noticeable effort to keep Pineda around.

    Before Pineda was put on the IL the second time, it seemed as if he was getting better with every start. It will be crucial for the Twins division chances if he can come back on that same wave he had been riding. On that note, I wonder what he would look like surfing... back to baseball. Keep in mind this is still his first season after TJ surgery so his innings could be limited. The Twins definitely seem to have a plan in place to keep him around for the long haul this season with scheduled breaks or IL stints for him to rest his arm so hopefully fatigue or major injury do not become concerns.

    He should be returning to this rotation this week so hopefully he can make the group a whole lot more reliable than they have been lately. All five starters will need to contribute if the Twins want to take the division for the first time since 2010, and I expect Michael Pineda to be leading the rotation.

    Follow Cooper Carlson on Twitter: Carlson_MnTwins

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    Featured Comments

    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    It will be very interesting to see how we tackle SP this offseason. I don't think it's a conincidence that our level of play has dropped off significantly with our starters being less effective. Perez, Odorizzi, and Gibson have all turned back into pumpkins. Pineda is looking more like his old self. I definitely agree with the sentiment that you keep someone around, and that the moment, that someone is Pineda. I'm not sure I'd even consider QOing the others at this point. They've all been pretty bad as the season has worn on.

     

    The problem is what to do next. That's 2 starters for 5 spots. I could see leaving one spot to Thorpe/Smeltzer to see who emerges victorious (with the other being a depth piece for 2020)... but going with both would not be wise IMO.

     

    Free agency doesn't look all that good with really only one or two starters worth giving money to... I still think they end up trading for someone.

     

    I'm still shocked the Twins didn't try and beat the offer for Gallen... They certainly could have. Then again, I'm still shocked that the Marlins traded him.

    Miami got back the #58 prospect in return for Gallen.

    If they weren't picky about position, then Graterol would have been comparable (#57).

    However, if they were looking to get a position player back, only Lewis or Kirilloff would likely be enough to top what they got.

    SF Twins Fan

    SF Twins Fan 1,735

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    The bullpen will be fine. A back end trio of Rogers-Romo-Dyson with a mid tier of May-Duffey-Littell is not bad. The starters have to get to the sixth inning and beyond for the bullpen to succeed.

    It's not good either though and that's the problem.

    yarnivek1972

    yarnivek1972 6,290

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I think the Twins need to make a push to sign all three of their free agent pitchers. IMHO, Perez would be better suited for a BP role or SP option as part of 6 guys who can fill that role. This year, like nearly every year previously, has proven a major league team needs more than 5 starters. Other than Brusder and Smeltzer, I don;t see a lot of major league ready starting pitching in the minors.

    Nothing about Perez’s 2019 performance suggests he would do well in the pen. The first inning is one of his poorer innings. Not the worst, but far from the best.

     

    Also, the Twins aren’t going to pay him $7.5 mil to be their second (or third if Smeltzer or Thorpe sticks in the role) lefty.

    ashbury

    ashbury 60,776

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Nothing about Perez’s 2019 performance suggests he would do well in the pen. The first inning is one of his poorer innings. Not the worst, but far from the best.

    Unless he can do things, knowing he will only pitch one inning, that he can't pace himself to do when going for five or more.

    jkcarew

    jkcarew 8,313

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    This much I know for sure....

     

    Standing in the box and looking out at that, out there on top of the mound, 60 feet six inches away....he could throw 100 90-mph fastballs over the middle of the plate and I'd never make contact. My toes would be scraping the outside of the box and I'd be bailing before his release. I guess that's why I'm a fan.

    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 6,082

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The Twins should want Pineda back, but IMO it needs to be in the same role he has filled this season; back end starter with front end upside. If MN goes into next season with Pineda penciled in atop the rotation they're asking for trouble, and the hunt for offseason arms went horribly wrong. 

     

    I'm fine with Pineda on a 2 year deal although I agree it seems unlikely he'd sign one in MN barring another IL stint to end the season. Between him, Odorizzi, and Gibson he certainly has the most upside, but he's by far the least durable. I'd hesitate on giving him 3 years, but I could be swayed if the numbers weren't crazy. There's no way I'm handing him 4 years. 

     

     

    yarnivek1972

    yarnivek1972 6,290

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    The Twins should want Pineda back, but IMO it needs to be in the same role he has filled this season; back end starter with front end upside. If MN goes into next season with Pineda penciled in atop the rotation they're asking for trouble, and the hunt for offseason arms went horribly wrong.

     

    I'm fine with Pineda on a 2 year deal although I agree it seems unlikely he'd sign one in MN barring another IL stint to end the season. Between him, Odorizzi, and Gibson he certainly has the most upside, but he's by far the least durable. I'd hesitate on giving him 3 years, but I could be swayed if the numbers weren't crazy. There's no way I'm handing him 4 years.

    He’s almost certain to finish tonight’s start with more IP than Odorizzi. He’s 3 1/3 behind him.

    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,263

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I am a bit late but here I go.

     

    1] I agree Pineda is a key. He bas been very solid and consistent. As pointed out in the OP, his ERA...not exactly the best measurement..is a bit inflated from a few bad performances. That can be said for a LOT of pitchers. He has good stuff, has had a nice career, and his biggest problem has simply been injuries that have slowed him. His signing was very smart. Coming off TJ, the Twins have handled him perfectly!

     

    2] I don't know that Pineda is my #2 when playoff time comes. The problem with the rotation, right now, is NOT that anyone stinks. The problem is that everyone seems to be hitting a lull at once. Berrios bas one of the best starts of his young career followed by a bad one and then a mediocre one. Odorizzi seemed to have a recent finger issue. But I remind everyone he finished both 2017 and 2018 strong. Gibson had a STRONG year and a half coming in to this season before a rough start due to illness, missing time, etc. He hasn't been quite the same, but you still see starts where he is the same "new" pitcher he morphed in to. Usually, batters and pitchers have highs and lows in a season. Unfortunately, our rotation seems to all have had a lull recently.

     

    There is still a month and a half to set things straight!

     

    Before the season began, we all knew 3 pieces of our rotation were potential FA. I stated then that nobody should be surprised if Pineda turned out to be a priority when all is said and done. I think that is coming true.

     

    This OK is about the post season, but we also understand the reality of tomorrow, and this thread is leaning that way. I get it. Makes sense under the circumstances. This team has truly has the ability to go deep and win it all. They could also be done 1st round. But isn't that true every year?

     

    If we want to discuss next year, my personal belief is anywhere from 50-50 To 75-25 the FO makes a major move to add a major rotation piece to join Berrios. My vastly differential exists because the entire market has changed so much the past 3 years. FA options have changed so much. The first year of the new trade deadline left so many teams holding their cards thinking they had a shot. The Twins have a deep enough system to trade away 4 top 20 prospects for a quality SP without doing anything to "damage" their system.

     

    Regardless, especially considering how the market has changed, I believe the Twins can, and probably will, bring back 2 of their 3 impending FA SP. The question is which 2?

     

    Not necessarily a proven ACE, but a talented arm with a couple of years of control is brought in to team with Berrios. Pick your player! Between Odorizzi, Gibson and Pineda, which 2 would you choose? Because I see finances and production making cases for any of the 3.



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