Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Twins News & Analysis

    Make It Official! Twins 3, White Sox 2: Clutch Kepler, Steely Thielbar Slam Door on Sox


    Nate Palmer

    With the win streak at seven, the Twins grinded out a win to extend the string to eight. It took a Santana home run, Kepler RBI single, and big relief appearances from Jax and Thielbar to secure the win. 

    Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    SP: Joe Ryan: 6.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (86 pitches, 59 strikes (68.6%)
    Home Runs: Carlos Santana (4)
    Top 3 WPA: Caleb Thielbar (0.164), Joe Ryan (0.164), Max Kepler (0.122)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs

    image.png.50b0ef8407f0c5950f46d37eb7715262.png

    Riding a seven-game win streak, the Minnesota Twins received good news as Carlos Correa was activated and started the game Monday. Of course, one player's good news often results in the opposite for someone else. That someone was Austin Martin, who was sent back to St. Paul to make room for Correa.

    The Twins faced off against Garret Crochet once again, whom they were only allowed to go 4.0 innings and scored five runs against back on April 24th. The Crochet that came out Monday didn’t look like that version of the left-hander. Instead, he looked much more like the version that opened the season. Included in Crochet's opening few starts were 7.0 IP, 1 ER, and 8 K’s against the dangerous Atlanta Braves. 

    In a puzzling move, the White Sox did pull Crochet early. This was a welcome sight for Twins batters, as he pitched five innings and struck out seven. 

    The White Sox offense also looked much different early in the game. Chicago has been struggling with fastballs and got to Joe Ryan’s fastball early and often. Nicky Lopez singled sharply up the middle, setting up an Andrew Vaugn RBI double. Before the end of the inning, Vaughn would score on a double-play ball that would put the Sox up early 2-0. 

    Carlos Slamtana with Sausage Power
    That White Sox lead held just until the second inning. The Twins roared back as Manual Margot took a walk, setting the stage for Carlos Santana to hit his fourth home run in five days. And yes, the sausage made another appearance, flying out of the Twin's dugout into Santana's hands. 

    Unlikely Stolen Base Duo
    The Twins were moving on the bases Monday evening. Willi Castro was the first to swipe a bag in the second inning. We are used to Castro swiping bags, but it is the next guy who we  need to get used to being involved in the running part of the running game. Christian Vazquez also stole second on a close play in the seventh inning. That puts Castro and Vazquez in a four-way tie with Austin Martin and Kyle Farmer for the team stolen base lead at two. 


    Twins Daily's winning "Make It Official!" game recaps are sponsored by Official Fried Chicken, which you can find in center field of Target Field. With a name like "Official," we know we have to be the best in the game every day, and from your first bite, you'll know that's a promise we make good on.


    The Twins and White Sox would stay tied at two from the second inning until the ninth. It was then that two long-time outfield mates got the offense going again for the Twins. Byron Buxton finally got a hold of a ball and ripped it to left field for a double. Max Kepler followed him up with an RBI single to right field, which gave Buxton plenty of time to score and go up 3-2.  

    On a night when it seemed Joe Ryan wasn’t at his best, he still gave the Twins a great outing. Only allowing two runs put his team in a position to win as long as the offense could do its job. Ryan also helped produce nine swings and misses against White Sox batters. 

    The Twins could then work through their bullpen with Brock Stewart into Griffin Jax into Caleb Thielbar to close the win. Jax especially had to find a way through a tough inning and a tough stretch of the White Sox lineup and did so successfully. 

    The Twins now own an eight-game win streak and are 8-0 against under .500 teams. It is one more successful step as the Twins climb back up the division ladder after their rough start. 

    What’s Next?
    The newest fixture in the Twins rotation, Simeon Woods Richardson, will take his turn on Tuesday. Wood Richardson will look to put together a third strong start for his young season. The Twins will see Mike Soroka start again. He was strong against the Twins initially, but their bats eventually got him. Twins hitters would undoubtedly like to get to him earlier on Tuesday. 

    Postgame Interviews

     

     

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

      THU FRI SAT SUN MON 19
    Sands 13 0 0 35 0 48
    Okert 10 0 0 29 0 39
    Funderburk 0 0 38 0 0 38
    Jax 9 0 0 6 22 37
    Bowman 0 35 0 0 0 35
    Stewart 20 0 0 0 15 35
    Jackson 0 0 29 0 0 29
    Thielbar 13 7 0 0 0 20
     

    Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

    Recent Twins Articles

    Recent Twins Videos

    Twins Top Prospects

    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    21 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

    Good call out on leverage index, I was assuming on that one before I dug into the math.  I was assuming because it should obviously be part of the equation, how else would they know what the big moment is?  Just later in the game isn't congruent with sending the closer out against the heart of the order in the 7-8 inning, also a darling (and correct) move of the nerds and seamheads alike.  It's the correct high leverage moment.

    Why would Thielbar get all 20.6% of the WPA?  One of his outs had a .630 xBa and it was one of two good plays Kepler made in the inning.  Because he gets credit for whatever his defense does, which ruins the stat for pitchers, IMO.  Lord help the Angels pitchers going to arb if they want to talk WPA.

    If roughly 20% is available for a one run lead a good closer should run away with the title, but they don't.

    From Fangraphs-"A fun way to think of WPA is as a storytelling statistic."  If your story doesn't include defense it's going to have a large blindspot when Buxton robs a homerun for Duran.

    I'm 90% sure even leverage index doesn't take into account who is batting. You're right in that we know it's more valuable to shutdown the heart of a lineup in the 8th than it is to pitch against 7-8-9 in the 9th, but I don't know if any of these kinds of metrics have caught up to that yet.

    Yeah WPA in my opinion is an OK estimator for pitcher performance in the aggregate but it breaks down quickly under any scrutiny. Similar to how ERA can be deceptive depending on the quality of the defense, it's a descriptive of strictly what happened but it's not all that helpful when you want to evaluate an individual player's performance. 

    10 hours ago, rv78 said:

    It's great to beat up on the two worst teams in the AL, but that only means you could still be the 3rd worst team in the AL. I'll start believing when they start beating good teams. 

    Way to be upbeat!




    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...