Left Field Could Surprise Next Season

On 11/30/2025 at 5:35 AM, Mahoning said:

Years ago the Twins had a regular, every-day LF named Eddie Rosario. When the Twins released him (too expensive) all the stat-heads wrote that he'd be easy to replace. They've never replaced him. That's one of the problems with WAR: It assumes that there is a (cheap) replacement available. But, what if there isn't?

 In all the years since Rosario the Twins' farm system has failed to produce a regular left fielder. Now that MLB seems to be shifting to giving value to contact and speed, I'd like to see Martin get the chance.

Well, first off you appear to be misrepresenting what replacement level means in the context of WAR. That's for guys who put up a negative WAR which yeah...you can find cheaply and off the street. WAR doesn't presume that you can replace a starting quality player easily or cheaply, which is why they value 1 WAR at $8M or so.

Have the Twins found a consistent replacement for Rosario in LF? No, but they've certainly replaced Rosarios production since he left...because Eddie stopped being good. Twins got solid production in the COVID season in 2020 (OPS+ of 116 with decent defense in the smaller sample). After that, it hasn't been good for Rosario and the Twins still look smart for not investing playing time or financial resources in him. Atlanta got overly excited by a hot run down the stretch and handed him a big contract, that immediately blew up in their faces. In a fairly similar amount of playing time (overall) from 2021 through 2025, Trevor Larnach was in fact better than Eddie Rosario, and much much cheaper.

Because of injuries and lack of production, Larnach hasn't been able to seize the LF job on a permanent basis, but drop Rosario's production in there and things are even worse.

Martin is an intriguing option for LF in 2026, because he finally started to look comfortable out there and his ability to get on base was strong enough to make up for not having any real pop in his bat, and his speed on the bases offset the mistakes. If he produces like he did in 2025 for an entire season, he's a solid starting LF that provides speed, defense, and a solid ability to avoid outs, while not adding anything for power. 

Roden has a higher upside, because he looks like he could potentially play all 3 outfield positions credibly or better, could have some decent pop in his bat, and might avoid outs effectively. But his hit tool hasn't shown up yet. (BTW, Roden has a better track record as a hitter in the minors than...Eddie Rosario) He should get chances in MLB this season.

I'd rather give Martin the starting job out the gate because I think Larnach's upside is pretty limited and Martin adds more things. Roden should get chances in LF, RF, and CF to play and show he can hit. If we're adding in a prospect to compete for OF time (and I believe we should), I'd make it at the expense of Wallner in the OF, moving the moose to DH, but not having Larnach on the team at all.

Regardless, I'm not really missing Eddie Rosario in LF. 2018 Eddie? Sure. But that guy ain't been around for a long time.

1 hour ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I'm one of the people that likes Martin and I agree entirely with you. Martin is not the backup CF, he's not a super UTL guy, he's a corner OF whose path to regular playing time is as a solid average, high OBP guy who is above average in in the corner OF and can play CF for a few innings here or there and not embarrass himself. He was that guy for the last 2 months of the 2025 season, the first time he's really gotten the chance to play every day. His performance last year should give him a shot to continue this year as the every day LF unless and until his bat falls off or his defense badly regresses. If he can hit .280/.375/.365 like he did last year, he's a starter. If he raises that SLG to even around .400 and/or can steal 25-35 bases at an 85% success rate, he's a locked in starter for the next few years. If his hitting stats regress to the .253/.318/352 he hit in 2024, he's a 4th or 5th OF. If they regress more, he's a DFA. 

My point here is not to "anoint" Martin or even say play him come hell or high water, it's to give him a real chance next year. A real chance means playing him almost every day for at least a couple or months or half a season and sticking with him when he has his inevitable ups and downs. Platooning him with a guy who hit .150 last year is not a real shot. Martin got his chance last hear and he performed. We need to reward that by keeping it going if we can. There are plenty of opportunities in RF and at 1B for all of these "can't miss" prospects we have to come up and perform like Martin did (or better) and earn there own shot. Let's not "anoint" Emma, GG, Roden, or Jenkins. Let's give them a shot too and play the guys who actually perform. So far that's Martin. Start the season with Buxton in CF, Martin in LF,  and one or more of Roden, Emma, GG, or Jenkins in RF (or Roden at 1B) and make Wallner the DH playing RF 1-2 days a week. The Twins aren't likely playoff contenders in 2026, let's FIND OUT WHAT WE HAVE. 

 

Completely agree. Martin of the last two months deserves to play and be given the chance to show that’s who he is going forward. And no “gimmes”; let the best player play regardless of who it is.