Joe Maddon is Out in Tampa. Could Twins Get Him?

Yeah, 10-12 teams will call Lester and Max at 12:01 when free agency opens up.  But we will wait for them to call us so we have negotiating leverage. Really drive their price down and pounce.

Actually I found that nugget about TR's trade approach -- waiting for others to initiate talks -- fascinating.  It's actually a pretty good (albeit obviously not aggressive) approach to trades -- when you inquire about a player or players, it does naturally follow that you lose a lot of leverage.  If the Twins call the Nationals about Alex Meyer, the Nationals probably ask for the moon (and they probably did initially anyway); but if the Nationals call the Twins about Denard Span, and the Twins keep coming back to Alex Meyer in their discussions, it's a whole different situation.  (The problem, naturally, is you need to have desirable assets to make this work, and even then you're operating more on other teams timelines.)

It's a little more problematic when it comes to free agents, since there is an obvious defined market and time frame for them.  Although he showed some signs of bucking that trend last winter.  (Similarly, TR's pre-2008 approach to international players might best be described as "waiting out the market" given the results he got from it.)

Bunk on the leverage thing. The moment you ask for a guy, the other teams know you want him, even if they call first. IME, negotiations don't work that who calls first is at a disadvantage. Maybe in baseball it's different than what I've experienced in other lines of work, but I find that hard to believe.

For Maddon, or free agents -- I agree it's bunk.

For player trades, I think it plays a part (although obviously a relatively minor one).  It's a much less structured market.

How much better of a player does a team have to give up if it calls first, instead of takes a call? Do people think it really makes a difference? If the Twins call first, do they give up a guy 5 - 10 spots higher on their list? I just don't buy it at all. I could be wrong, but it seems......not likely.

You're looking at it from a video game simulation perspective, which is problematic by itself, but there are a whole lot more outcomes that you're not considering.

How about, if you call about trading for a minor leaguer, you're slightly less likely to actually land him than if the other team calls you?  (Of course, once you factor in that the other team may not call you at all, it's probably a wash.  But there are other ways to approach it too -- you can discuss other players before bringing up the guy you want, or you can discuss a player at the trading deadline and then revisit it later, etc.)

Of course it varies too what kind of player you are calling about.  Minor leaguers and less-heralded prospects are going to be affected by this much more than an established MLB player.  For example, if the Twins called the Braves last winter about Gilmartin, maybe they don't simply give him up for Doumit, or at least not as quickly -- they had no pressing need to unload Gilmartin at that point, who required neither a 40-man roster spot nor much money, so any sign that he had more value to other teams might have caused them to re-evaluate.  (Of course, the Twins could call the Braves about pitching help in general and find their way to Gilmartin indirectly... or more likely, they have Gilmartin and others on a list for every team which they reference whenever a trade inquiry comes in, and rarely target such players so precisely.)

On the other hand, if it is the summer of 2001 and we call the Mets about Rick Reed, they're not going to hold out for more just because they didn't call us for Matt Lawton first.

I'll admit, it's going to be a minor effect and perhaps undetectable given the multitude of other variables around trades, but given the lack of structure and many possible outcomes, I can't say there wouldn't be an effect.

(A related approach and effect might be seen in teams that seek/offer lots of trades, versus teams that don't. TR's restrained approach might nab slightly higher returns and/or close deals quicker than a team that comes across as more reckless in its approach.)

No, I'm looking at it from having been in negotiations in businesses, not from a video game perspective.

 

And, there might be "some" effect, but really, how much effect? Should it really be some kind of principle a team actually follows? (not saying they do, but others have said that, I have no idea)

The video game perspective was the idea there would be an ordered list of prospects with a number attached, and increasing or decreasing the number would be the primary effect of these different approaches.

Like I said, I don't think it's a major effect, but it's probably there and it's not necessarily a bad thing either.  Think of it less like altering the trade, and more like altering a team's valuation of a player.  If some team calls us about Eddie Rosario, I think that could/should alter TR's valuation of him, to some degree.