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    How Can The Twins Add To Their Defensive Strength?


    Nick Nelson

    Minnesota's 26-game improvement from 2016 to 2017 was driven largely by massive improvements in run prevention. The Twins allowed 101 fewer runs this year, and better pitching wasn't really the differentiator.

    In fact, the team's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) actually went UP, from 4.57 to 4.72. The strikeout rates, walk rates, home run rates – they were all mostly static from one season to the next.

    What changed? The rate at which balls in play were converted into outs.

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    In 2016, the Twins ranked 29th out of 30 MLB teams in Defensive Efficiency Rating. In 2017 they rocketed up to 12th. That's a remarkable jump.

    Sure, the pitching staff played a role in shaving off 11% of the runs allowed from 2016, but not a very big role. As mentioned above, the K, BB, and HR rates didn't really change. Per FanGraphs, the batted ball profiles – grounder and fly ball rates, ratio of soft/medium/hard contact – also remained virtually identical.

    The Twins hired a new pitching coach last week, and hopefully they'll target some impact arms this offseason. But what's truly essential is supporting those new and returning hurlers with the best defense possible.

    Fortunately, this roster already has a top-tier starting alignment locked in. The Twins can bring back all the starters from what was a terrific unit this year – arguably above-average at all but one or two spots.

    Byron Buxton is, of course, the central figure here. He was probably the most valuable defensive player in the game this year, and as long as he stays healthy at age 24 that should remain true. Those who preordered the Offseason Handbook received a special perk this weekend, when we sent out Parker Hageman's feature on Buxton's impact. You can get that, and another early preview coming later this week, by getting your preorder in now.

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    Flanked by Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, Buxton can lead the game's best defensive outfield. Jason Castro is a quality backstop. The right side of the infield shapes up nicely with Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer. Really the only question marks are at shortstop and third base, but Paul Molitor can help himself by rotating Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano through the DH spot frequently while plugging in Ehire Adrianza and Eduardo Escobar.

    Unless the Twins shake things up with a big trade, we already know how the starting nine will align in the field, more or less. But Derek Falvey and Thad Levine will have opportunities this offseason to make upgrades on the periphery of the roster, and that's where I will be curious to see their approach.

    In particular, the answers to these three questions will be telling:

    1) Will they bring back Robbie Grossman?

    The most patient hitter in baseball took a step backward after his exceptional first season with the Twins, but was still a relatively useful piece, splitting time between DH and the outfield corners while providing a steady – albeit unexplosive – offensive presence.

    Grossman's on-base skills fit nicely in a power-packed lineup, but it wouldn't be hard to find another fourth outfielder who can match his .741 OPS, and upgrading his glove would be be easy. When he's in the outfield, Grossman is a rare defensive liability for the Twins, lacking the range to track down anything outside his immediate vicinity.

    Rosario and Kepler are lined up to man the outfield corners, and both have proven vulnerable to left-handed pitching (especially Kepler), so it'd make sense to replace Grossman with a right-handed hitter who plays good defense. In the Offseason Handbook, you'll find a few names fitting that description.

    Then again, the arbitration-eligible Grossman will only cost around $2 million to bring back, and his .361 OBP ranked second on the team behind Mauer.

    2) Do they trust Mitch Garver behind the plate?

    It would seem that Garver is ready to take over as Minnesota's backup catcher. He had a great year at Triple-A, earning Twins Minor League Player of the Year honors, and got his feet wet in the majors during the final weeks of the campaign.

    But do they trust his defense enough go with him as Jason Castro's standalone backup? This much is not clear. Molitor didn't seem to have a ton of faith in Garver behind the plate, giving him only four starts there and none after September 4th.

    Will the Twins bring back Chris Gimenez, or seek another glove-first option as Castro's caddy? If they do, what does that mean for Garver's future here? He turns 27 in January.

    3) Did Ehire Adrianza show enough to get another shot?

    The Twins claimed Adrianza off waivers ahead of spring camp mainly because of his defensive rep. He played shortstop and he played it well; it wasn't clear Minnesota had a player with that capability on the roster. He ended up playing all over the field and getting a career-high 186 PAs this season.

    Like Grossman, Adrianza is eligible for his first turn at arbitration this offseason, and won't be expensive to retain (maybe around a million). The Twins need a strong defender they can use frequently on the left side of the infield. Did Adrianza do enough to convince them he's that guy?

    His defensive metrics were good, though not as strong as they have been in the past. To my eye, he was a bit sloppy at times and not quite the specialist that his reputation suggested. But the tools are clearly there and to me, bringing him back is an easy call, especially since he's the only speed threat on the bench as things currently stand.

    What are your concerns and questions around the Twins defense as we head into the offseason?

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    Castro is partially the reason of the ERA drop from 2016.  He is part of the good defense.  Castro's 2017 fWAR: 1.6, bWAR 2.5;  Suzuki's 2016 fWAR 0.5, bWAR 0.4.  10th best C as far as fWAR is concerned, higher with bWAR

    Well, if we’re going to discuss WAR, 2017 Suzuki had 2.7 fWAR and 2.8 bWAR, which is way better than Castro. But the topic is improving the defense, so WAR is not really on point. One way to improve defense would be to be better than tenth. Of course, you can have a different opinion.

    MN's ranks in swinging strike %:

     

    2013: 30th

    2014: 29th

    2015: 29th

    2016: 29th

    2017: 28th

     

    Regardless of what moves they make in the offseason, a majority of this year's staff will surely be returning and I don't think it's realistic to expect them to suddenly vault into the top half of the league.

     

    So what your are saying is that there has been improvement over these last 5 years! (Albeit incremental) :).

     

    In particular, the answers to these three questions will be telling:


    1) Will they bring back Robbie Grossman?

    The most patient hitter in baseball took a step backward after his exceptional first season with the Twins, but was still a relatively useful piece, splitting time between DH and the outfield corners while providing a steady – albeit unexplosive – offensive presence.

    Grossman's on-base skills fit nicely in a power-packed lineup, but it wouldn't be hard to find another fourth outfielder who can match his .741 OPS, and upgrading his glove would be be easy. When he's in the outfield, Grossman is a rare defensive liability for the Twins, lacking the range to track down anything outside his immediate vicinity.

     

     

    I disagree with both of the bolded parts of the parts of the article. Robbie performed just as anyone would have expected unless they base their projections on a 99 game sample size. He was a player brought in on waivers (or similar) and had one full minor league season with a .800+ OPS. I still don't know why people thought he was going to .800+ OPS last year.

     

    I don't think it is as easy you think to find a .741 OPS with an upgraded glove as a 4th OF. Robbie (and his .741 OPS) ranked about 150th in the entire majors for OPS with 400+ PA. And 6th on the Twins.

    The key to improving (more like maintaining) the Twins defense will be whether or not they choose to force Vargas onto the roster. Doing that requires Sano to play more 3B and/or Grossman to play more OF. If they don't do that then Granite is the logical last hitter to make the team and it is less likely than both of Grossman and Sano are in the lineup defensively.

     

    I do really like Vargas though.Tough fit on the roster though with Grossman also needing DH AB's and Sano likely getting plenty of DH days.

    MN's ranks in swinging strike %:

     

    2013: 30th

    2014: 29th

    2015: 29th

    2016: 29th

    2017: 28th

     

    Regardless of what moves they make in the offseason, a majority of this year's staff will surely be returning and I don't think it's realistic to expect them to suddenly vault into the top half of the league.

    sign or trade for 2 starters and a reliever, and 2 or 3 of Jay, Chargois, Burdi, Romero, Gonsalves and May become significant contributors and you’ve turned over half your pitching staff.

     

    You can make significant improvement when you turn over half your pitching staff

     

    sign or trade for 2 starters and a reliever, and 2 or 3 of Jay, Chargois, Burdi, Romero, Gonsalves and May become significant contributors and you’ve turned over half your pitching staff.

    You can make significant improvement when you turn over half your pitching staff

     

    Yeah. As you and others are pointing out, this statistic can change overnight by getting rid of pitchers who are bad at this and signing pitchers who are good at it. In fact, that's probably the ONLY way to fix this problem, which goes back to what we already knew -- the Twins simply need a lot of turnover on the pitching side.

    Now bear in mind this is just one statistic and is no guarantee of wins. There are pitchers who can make players swing and miss who also get shredded once contact is made.....  The Twins need a multitude of pitching styles on the roster to be truly successful (and no, they don't currently have that).

    Edited by Doomtints

     

    Yeah. As you and others are pointing out, this statistic can change overnight by getting rid of pitchers who are bad at this and signing pitchers who are good at it. In fact, that's probably the ONLY way to fix this problem, which goes back to what we already knew -- the Twins simply need a lot of turnover on the pitching side.

    Now bear in mind this is just one statistic and is no guarantee of wins. There are pitchers who can make players swing and miss who also get shredded once contact is made.....  The Twins need a multitude of pitching styles on the roster to be truly successful (and no, they don't currently have that).

    Even the LOOGYs are high contact types.

     

    Dozier is my favorite Twin, but I don't think he has the arm for 3B.

    And defense would almost certainly be a downgrade with Dozier at the hot corner.

     

    Remember Trevor Plouffe? Most guys can't just pick up third base in Spring Training. Plouffe spent most of his MiLB career at short and was absolutely terrible at third base when he hit the majors.




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