Can the Twins Lineup Turn it Around?

Early in the year, there’s often the excuse that weather is a culprit for lackluster offensive performance. That’s certainly a fair suggestion, but it’s far too generalized to sum everything up with that easy of a pass. This offseason, the Twins front office added one of the best free agents in baseball, and while Carlos Correa will likely get going, he hasn’t anchored a lineup looking to produce.
 
Scoring just 41 runs in 13 games, Minnesota is averaging just over three runs per contest. No matter how strong the starting pitching has been (they rank 8th in baseball in terms of ERA) or how bad the bullpen has been (they rank 27th in baseball in terms of ERA), the reality is that type of production leaves little room for error. Minnesota is 4-0 when scoring at least four runs this season, but having scored less than that in eight contests is why they’re being doubled up in the loss column.

 
For Rocco Baldelli’s club, it’s not as though there’s a single culprit either. Looking up and down the lineup, no player save for Luis Arraez is producing. Byron Buxton was off to a torrid start before going down with a knee injury. Returning to the lineup, there’s still a 10/1 K/BB he’ll be looking to even out and push the on-base percentage north. It was expected that Alex Kirilloff would be a regular contributor to the lineup this season. However, his lingering wrist injury still hasn’t figured itself out, and the path of a cortisone shot is one that only provided a temporary fix last season.
 
Minnesota’s .195 average as a team sits 27th in baseball, ahead of only the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks. They see a slight boost to 23rd when looking at on-base percentage, and despite being a team capable of doing significant damage, they rank just 24th in terms of slugging. To say things are bad right now would be putting it lightly.
 
However, there has to be hope on the horizon, and if there is, that comes in terms of process driving results. The Twins lineup currently produces the highest hard-hit rate in baseball at 36.7%. They avoid ground balls, hitting them just 38.7% of the time, which ranks 27th in baseball. There’s room for growth in terms of the HR/FB (home run/fly ball) rate and line-drive rate. Minnesota ranks in the bottom third of the sport in both areas.
 
Despite being seen as a homer-happy club, it’s also important to note that the Twins are doing a decent job in the batter’s box regarding plate discipline. Their chase rate ranks in the middle of the sport, and while the whiff rate is 10th, they aren’t egregiously bad on an island by themselves. In short, there should be a light at the end of this tunnel.
 
If it’s unfair to suggest that the weather is the main culprit here, it’s probably also unfair to suggest that 12 games indicate what’s to come. The reality is this lineup has far too much talent to stay down for a considerable amount of time. They are all going through it simultaneously, but one person breaking out could undoubtedly provide a spark for the rest of the group.
 
When the dust settles on the 2022 season, I’d bet handsomely on the pitching taking a back seat to where the lineup is in terms of production. Winning baseball games by scoring three runs or less is a daunting task. The guys in the clubhouse know that, and getting it going needs to happen soon. After feeling good about the bats up and down the order this spring, the hope is that sentiment returns soon.