Better Late Than Never: Justin Topa Arrives, Locks Down Twins Win

The Twins announced a flurry of roster moves ahead of Wednesday night's game against the Marlins. One of them was activating Justin Topa for the final five games of the season.

In January, the Twins traded fan-favorite second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners in a five-player swap that also netted them Anthony DeSclafani, Gabriel Gonzalez, Darren Bowen, and enough cash to cover most of DeScalafani's salary for 2024. While the move was panned by those who saw DeSclafani as the prize, the true value was meant to come from Topa and Gonzalez. While Gonzalez has had a middling season at High-A Cedar Rapids, he’s still just 20 and may have a future.

Topa, on the other hand, has been injured all season with left patellar tendinitis, suffered covering home plate during a game near the end of spring training. He was close to returning in late July, but that was scuttled by a setback. Only here at the death of the season has he made it all the way back, so many Twins fans are only dimly aware of him. Who is he, why did the Twins trade for him, and what can fans expect?

Topa's career has been quite a journey. Drafted twice out of college, in the 33rd and then the 17th rounds, he signed with the Pirates. He was a late bloomer, and injuries wrecked his first shot at pro ball, ultimately forcing him to spend a couple of season and a half in indy ball before the Rangers gave him a second chance. His minor-league deal with them in 2018 didn't lead to glory, but he signed with the Brewers on the eve of Opening Day in 2019.

That time, he took off. He debuted in his age-29 season in 2020 and had a good, but brief showing. Over six appearances (7 2/3 innings) he struck out 12, allowed just two earned runs, had a WHIP under 1.00, and carried a FIP of 1.76. The next two seasons were disrupted by a flexor tendon issue that required surgery, so he was limited to just a handful of games in each season. 

Prior to the 2023 season, the Mariners traded for Topa and he hit his stride in a real way. In his first healthy season, he had a rubber arm, making 75 appearances. That’s Griffin Jax territory. Over 69 innings, he pitched to a 2.61 ERA (3.15 FIP). He walked fewer batters than an average pitcher, and was worth 1.1 fWAR. He was good against both left-handed and right-handed batters, and emerged as a late-inning weapon.

That’s the pitcher the Twins hoped they were trading for. Seventy-five innings is a good sample size for a reliever, and the Twins were buying the uncertainty that goes along with a player of Topa’s unusual career arc and injury history, hoping for upside. Controllable through 2026, the intention was for Topa to slot in behind Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, and Brock Stewart to form a lethal foursome at the back of the bullpen. Unfortunately, his injury prevented that from taking place. Now that he’s back, he can still impact a bullpen desperate for some stability, as he demonstrated with a scoreless ninth inning Wednesday night.

So what does he offer the team? Well, a lot. He has a four-pitch mix, throwing a sinker, slider, cutter, and changeup. The sinker and cutter are both very good, worth 10 runs and one run last year, respectively. He throws the sinker about 45% of the time, and the cutter another 19%. The changeup is so-so, with neutral value, and he throws that rarely, just 7% of the time. The slider is a slight negative, but of course, the Twins do well at helping pitchers develop that pitch. He throws that 30% of the time. The fascinating wrinkle with Topa is his sidearm slot, from a fairly upright posture. It leads to very heavy action on the sinker, and his slider actually appears to rise relative to that pitch, when it's right. 

While the Twins making the playoffs at this juncture seems unlikely, there’s still value in Topa facing major-league hitters a couple of times this season, and for the Twins, it will be instructive to see how he looks. Being under team control for two more seasons has a ton of value, and although he wasn’t a bullpen building block this season, he could be so next year. The next test is whether he’s truly healthy, and whether his stuff plays at the same level as 2023. If it does, next year's bullpen should be a good one.

He pitched for the first time as a member of the Twins in the 9th inning of an 8-3 win. He was efficient, located his pitches, and coaxed a ground out, a pop out, and a strikeout to finish the game. Rocco Baldelli needed 24 outs from his relievers to win that game, and he'll need plenty more from them if the team is going to win enough to sneak into the postseason. Topa gives them a much-needed reliable option, increasing the likelihood that Baldelli will thread the needle. It's a welcome development, though something shy of true salvation.