Alex Kirilloff and Embracing the Unknown

“We need guidance; we’ve been misled—young and hostile, but not stupid.” – Tom DeLonge

Fans have been looking forward to Alex Kirilloff ’s return since his most recent season-ending trip to the injured list. The 25-year-old former top 25 prospect has had a rocky beginning to his MLB career. He got off to a great start in 2021, appearing ready to live up to the hype surrounding him before a wrist injury in May 2021. Since then, he’s undergone two surgeries and has looked questionable in limited MLB time.

Through 104 MLB games, he’s been inconsistent, with some highs but a 94 OPS+ overall, at times losing the ability to hit the ball with any authority. He, the Twins, and fans hope those days are behind him following surgery to shorten his ulna bone to give his wrist more room to operate. Early results have been promising, as he has hit three home runs with a .391 batting average and a 1.326 OPS at AAA.

His rehab assignment—limited to 20 days—ends on Monday, May 1 (Mayday! Mayday!). Given this information, it’s easy to believe he will be on the big league team soon. However, signs are pointing elsewhere. Why would a player crushing the ball in AAA and at the end of his rehab stint not be moments from donning an MLB jersey?

Club officials have been characteristically tight-lipped about Kirilloff’s timetable. Little is truly known for sure about the situation. Still, Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic reported that many in the organization believe he will be optioned to AAA at the end of his rehab assignment to give him more time.

This development is abnormal. If he’s healthy enough to play at AAA, he should be healthy enough to play in MLB. If he’s crushing AAA, he should be ready to step into an MLB lineup and at least hit well enough to get regular time. Even if he didn’t have a standard spring training, hitting on the backfields in Ft. Myers and getting a full three weeks of minor league baseball should be enough, right?

Well, therein lies the problem. Kirilloff has not had a full three weeks in the minors. At the time of this article’s writing, he has played back-to-back days only twice—April 15th and 16th, then again on April 20th and 21st. He has played 10 games in 16 days and only finished the most recent three on the field. The Twins are slow-playing his return.

There’s really no telling what’s going on with him or how soon we’ll see him. We need to be prepared for him not to show up next week.

There’s where the speculation starts.

As fans, we’re only privy to what we are told. For the rest, we speculate. Three fans could read the above information and jump to three different conclusions. Maybe he’s not healthy enough to play more than three or four times per week. Maybe the Twins aren’t pushing him as hard as they need to. Maybe they plan on keeping him down long enough that he won’t hit arbitration this year as an edict from Cheap Pohlad.

Then the takes get fired. 

He needs to be up ASAP because the lineup needs him, and his on-field results indicate he’s healthy. He can play every other day in the majors. He needs to learn to play through pain. His wrist is cooked if he can’t play every day yet. Cheap Pohlad needs to sell the team. Daddy Rest is keeping secrets, so he might not even have a wrist. Nelson Cruz was fine without a wrist. The Twins should have DFAed him.

Obviously, the team could be more forthcoming (see Jamie Cameron’s suggestions for better communication). A note in the Athletic and a bunch of box scores can’t provide fans with all the information they crave, and we make our own stories in the absence of information. Heck, in the presence of information, we still make our own stories.

Injuries, though, are challenging to communicate about. Naturally, there are privacy concerns. Beyond that, though, is the general uncertainty and nonlinearity of recovery times. There are timetables, but they’re more suggestions than rules. Kirilloff’s situation is even more nebulous, given the lack of precedent for his surgery and the length of time he’s been working to get back—we’re coming up on two whole years since his injury.

But still, we want to know what’s going on. We want to be able to evaluate and critique the move. We want to have a plan and to know what to expect. We hate the unknown. 

I don’t have answers. You don’t have answers. Derek Falvey, Thad Levine, and Rocco Baldelli don’t have answers. Nick Paparesta probably doesn’t have the answers. But we want so deeply to know what’s going on so that we can have an opinion on it or just sleep a little better at night.

Do we really need to have an opinion on it, though? Sure, speculation is fun. Certainty is comforting. Speculating yourself into a sense of certainty checks both of those boxes. But what good does that do?

I don’t mean to preach—you can handle the information given to you however you want; it’s the fun of sports. I’ve just reached the point where I don’t pay much attention to injury updates. Let me know when he (whether that be Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Chris Paddack, or Matt Canterino) makes it back to the majors. Until then, I’ll watch and analyze the game on the field.

There are simply better things to critique the Twins’ management over than a cloudy injury recovery whose shadows we watch on the wall of Plato’s Cave. We don’t need to worry ourselves sick about the unknown when we could instead be arguing about who deserves the seventh spot in the bullpen—which is much more fun. Get back soon, Alex. And rake.