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  • Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

    The latest Minnesota Twins free agent and trade rumors, along with notes and tidbits about the team.
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    Brock Beauchamp
    MLB Trade Rumors released their top 35 trade candidates for the 2024-2025 offseason. To the surprise of absolutely no one in the room, the two Twins that made the list are the biggest salary concerns on a Twins team already over their projected payroll for 2025: catcher Christian Vazquez and pitcher (starter? reliever? mascot?) Chris Paddack.
    Vazquez can be considered a luxury on a Twins team battling baseball economics: he's a good defensive backstop with limited offensive capabilities and is slated to make $10 million in his walk season. Paddack is a different story but a similar payroll concern: he's due to make $7.5 million in 2025 but only made 17 starts last season. It's also uncertain whether the Twins want him in the rotation on Opening Day or would prefer to move him to the bullpen where his velocity and speed has played up in the past.
    Brock Beauchamp
    MLB Trade Rumors recently wrote about the Twins' financial situation, their current payroll, and options for the coming offseason. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic recently wrote about the Pohlads committing to keeping the 2025 payroll at roughly the level of the 2024 payroll.
    The primary problem facing the Twins front office this offseason is that without doing anything through the winter, they're still roughly $10 million over last year's payroll number.
    Obviously, the Twins need to shake up the roster (at least a little) after the worst collapse in team history. This means the one tool remaining in Derek Falvey's (admittedly empty) tool chest is to deal from the team's relative depth, primarily on the position player side. Some of the names that are due raises via arbitration (MLBTR estimates shown) are Willi Castro ($6.2 million), Ryan Jeffers ($4.7 million), Bailey Ober ($4.3 million), Joe Ryan ($3.8 million), Jhoan Duran ($3.7 million), Griffin Jax ($2.6 million), and Royce Lewis ($2.3 million).
    This isn't an ideal situation for the Twins, as they will likely be forced to deal additional value and hope to recoup more value in return. They were able to achieve this goal with the Luis Arraez for Pablo Lopez trade but it's a fine line to walk and fraught with risk.
    Brock Beauchamp
    This is going to be controversial, and for good reason. In Aaron Gleeman's latest roundup for The Athletic, he mentions that while change is likely coming, three of the most controversial figures of the Twins' late-season collapse are likely to remain in place for the 2025 season.
    Team manager Rocco Baldelli, President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey, and team president Dave St. Peter will probably run it back again at 1 Twins Way in 2025.
    Gleeman mentions that while changes could be coming, the core of the organization is likely safe. This isn't going to sit well with the fanbase after so many of them couldn't watch games on television while the Twins were red-hot and then after a dead-deadline, the team was no longer worth watching. 
    Brock Beauchamp
    This news might cause whiplash: the New York Yankees are apparently dangling starting pitcher Nestor Cortes on the trade market. Cortes is only 29 years old and won't become a free agent until after the 2025 season.
    Cortes has flashed brilliance in the past but scuffled in 2023 (87 ERA+) and is roughly league-average this season (99 ERA+). The Yankees, an obvious contender this season, will likely be looking for major-league talent in return for the pitcher, which could make a lot of sense for the Twins, who are severely payroll-constrained at the deadline.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Jon Morosi tweeted that several teams are in pursuit of Blue Jays starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has struggled this year for the Jays, posting an 85 ERA+ after posting a stellar 111 ERA+ last season. Most of his peripherals indicate he's a similar pitcher to the one that was well above average in 2023; last year, he was quite fortunate in batted-ball outcomes while this year, the opposite is true. If relying on advanced metrics, he's probably closer to a league-average starter in both seasons.
    Kikuchi is making $10 million this season, which means an acquiring team would be on the hook for about $4 million. Unfortunately, insiders are suggesting the Twins are unwilling to add payroll, which means they will need to go above and beyond other teams in prospect capital to bring Kikuchi to Minnesota.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Per Dan Hayes (The Athletic) in his latest Twins roundup, the Twins are looking for starting pitching, targeting starters on expiring contracts.
    This shouldn't come as a surprise, as starting pitching is the team's biggest weakness heading into the trade deadline and the team has been payroll-constrained since their Bally Sports television deal expired after the 2023 season. It's unlikely the Twins are in a position to commit additional dollars to a starter beyond this season and even their ability to add significant payroll for the rest of this season is in question.
    There are two starters on expiring contracts that should be traded before the trade deadline: the Detroit Tigers' Jack Flaherty and the Toronto Blue Jays' Yusei Kikuchi. Both are on relatively inexpensive contracts and should be within the budget constraints of the Twins.
    Brock Beauchamp
    According to Mark Feinsand's latest MLB.com report, the Blue Jays are telling teams they are willing to trade any players on expiring contracts, though they are not yet willing to part with players with team control beyond 2024.
    The Blue Jays have a slew of players who will be free agents at the end of the season: center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, DH Justin Turner, relievers Trevor Richards & Yimi Garcia, and most interestingly to the Twins, Yusei Kikuchi.
    Kikuchi is having a solid season with 101.1 innings pitched, a 101 ERA+, and is making only $10 million this season. Relievers Richards and Garcia might also be of interest to the Twins depending on the healthy return of Brock Stewart in the next couple of weeks.
    Brock Beauchamp
    In the latest trade roundup from The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal, Katie Woo, and Patrick Mooney wrote that the Nationals are preparing to sell. While Washington is playing decently this season (42-49), they're a whopping 16.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies and 5.5 games out of a contentious National League Wild Card spot. They didn't expect to compete this year and feel as if they're a year ahead of schedule and PoBO Mike Rizzo feels selling is the right decision at this trade deadline.
    The Nationals have several interesting right-handed relievers that could interest the Twins. On expiring contracts, they have Dylan Floro (179 ERA+) while they have two relievers who become free agents after the 2025 season: Hunter Harvey (183 ERA+) and Kyle Finnegan (184 ERA+). Starting pitcher Trevor Williams is expected to return from injury soon. He will also become a free agent at season's end and over 11 starts has a 2.22 ERA.
    Of course, the Nationals also have a Twins fan favorite rostered and available in trade, Joey Gallo.

    Brock Beauchamp
    Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic focused on the struggling Texas Rangers in his latest trade deadline roundup. He points out that while it's rare for defending world champions to sell, the Rangers are teetering on that precipice as we head toward mid-July. Texas is in third place in the AL West, six games behind the Seattle Mariners. They're even further out of the Wild Card picture, 7.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot. While those aren't insurmountable numbers, the Houston Astros have been playing much better baseball after an abysmal start to the season while the Rangers have yet to do much better than treading water at any point thus far.
    What makes the Rangers particularly interesting is their corps of starting pitchers. Michael Lorenzen is having a stellar season (123 ERA+) while making only $4.5 million this season. He's a free agent at season's end. Nathan Eovaldi is having a similarly good season (128 ERA+), though he is making $16 million this season and if he pitches another ~70-ish innings, a $20 million vesting option kicks in for 2025. If he continues pitching as he has this season, that's probably not a deterrent to any acquiring team. 
    The wild card candidate is Max Scherzer, who has a no-trade clause. He was willing to waive that last season but only if the Rangers added an additional season to his contract. There's no telling what Scherzer will do at this deadline; he's 39 years old now and is a free agent at season's end.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote up a list of trade deadline candidates whose stock is rising.
    He only lists one candidate as a potential fit for the Twins and it's an intriguing one: Jesse Winker.
    Winker, once a promising rising star with Cincinnati, fell upon hard times in 2022 after joining the Seattle Mariners. He was later traded to the Milwaukee Brewers and had an even worse season in 2023. He signed with the Nationals hoping for a rebound season and he has accomplished exactly that: a 134 OPS+ on the back of a .263/.377/.425 triple-slash line.
    Winker, a left-handed outfielder (who is better positioned as a designated hitter, frankly), would slot nicely into the Twins lineup, which is elite against left-handed pitching while slightly above-average against right-handed pitching.
    Hit the link above to check out the rest of Feinsand's list.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Appearing on Skor North's The Scoop, Doogie Wolfson of KSTP 5 mentioned that the Twins are receiving calls on minor-league outfielder Matt Wallner. Wallner, after a highly successful half-season in 2023, stumbled out of the gate in 2024 and was demoted back to the Triple-A St Paul Saints where he has rebounded nicely, posting an .869 OPS in 64 games played.
    While the Twins may be fielding calls on Wallner, it's hard to imagine them actually trading the Minnesota native. He has less than a year of service time under his belt and with the expiring contract of Max Kepler looming, the Twins will need another left-handed bat as soon as next year.
    It can be argued that the Twins don't need Wallner next season, they need him today. While the Twins have done an excellent job of mashing left-handed pitching (.799 OPS, 2nd in MLB), they're merely adequate against right-handed pitching (.720 OPS, 10th in MLB). Wallner's left-handed power stature could play well in the Twins lineup in the second half of the season.
    Ultimately, it will boil down to the front office deciding whether Wallner is more critical than the Twins' immediate need of pitching help, both in the rotation and bullpen.
     
    Matthew Lenz
    While rumors of Kelley Jansen being in the market have been swirling since the offseason, it may have been assumed he was off the market considering the Red Sox unexpected success in 2024. Instead, Jim Bowden of The Athletic wrote that rival executives believe "...there could be 'buyer-to-buyer' type trade this year..."
    While the price tag is hefty in both salary and player capital, the former elite reliever has done exceptional this year sporting a 2.30/2.13 ERA/FIP with a 19.1-percent K-BB and locking down 15/16 save opportunities. He would be an expensive but great addition for any team who needs bullpen help. While relievers are volatile creatures, it's an added bonus that an acquiring team would only be tied to him for this season.
    Cover photo credit: © Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
    Brock Beauchamp
    Most years, not a lot happens in June trade-wise but this June has been particularly slow, with almost no note-worthy trades happening between teams.
    That's primarily due to two reasons:
    The new postseason format, as many predicted, is keeping more teams in the postseason race than ever before. The ridiculous amount of parity in the leagues, particularly the National League. As of this writing, only three American League teams and just two National League teams are clear sellers: Oakland, the White Sox, and the Angels in the AL, while Colorado and Miami are the only clear sellers in the NL.
    In the American League, 12 of the 15 teams are in a postseason position or within 7.5 games of the third Wild Card spot. In the National League, 13 of the 15 teams are in a postseason position or within just 3.0 games of the third Wild Card spot.
    As we head into July, it's likely we will see more stratification amongst the contenders and some teams will drop out of the race and eventually trade expiring contracts but it's hard to imagine many high-profile names moving in the first half of July. We could also see savvy teams like the Rays, currently 4.0 games out of the third Wild Card, take advantage of the seller's market and intentionally bow out of the race. On the other hand, some GMs/PoBOs should be concerned about their jobs, such as Jed Hoyer and the Cubs, and they may try to avoid making the obvious long-term decision of selling assets to improve in later seasons.
    Time will tell how this all plays out but don't expect much to happen in the coming days or even weeks.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Two weeks ago, the Mets looked like they were on a path to being clear sellers at the trade deadline; several games under .500 and well back of the Wild Card, most expected David Stearns to sell. A small warm-streak later, they're still under .500 but now only two games out of the third Wild Card spot in the National League.
    Why should a Twins fan care? Well, because the Mets have starting pitching, and a lot of it. Mike Puma of the New York Post tweeted that it's possible the Mets may look to move starters while also trying to contend. They have several starters coming back from injury or in the minors (see below) but also have several starters on expiring or short-term contracts: Luis Severino (3.52 ERA, free agent after the season), Jose Quintana (4.58 ERA, free agent after the season), and Sean Manaea (4.16 ERA, $13.5 million option for 2025) are three options the Metropolitans could use as bait to beef up their middle-of-the-pack offense.
     
    Matthew Lenz
    Lately, we've been covering teams who the Twins could make a deal with to make up ground and win the division. Or, at the very least, stay at the top of the Wild Card standings.
    Well, assuming they will be buyers, they are not the only AL Central team looking for the same results. Per The Windup Podcast and shared by MLB Trade Rumors, the Royals GM (J.J. Picollo) revealed that the Royals will be in search of bullpen and utility depth. The Royals bullpen ranks near in the bottom third of the league in WAR, ERA, K rate, and BB rate. While we think the Twins are in need of bullpen help, the Royals have a far greater need but don't have the farm system to match the asking price of some of the power arms that may be available in a month.

    On the offensive end, the Royals are similar to the Twins in that they love to play matchups and splits. While they need OF help specifically, Picollo noted that they're looking for utility bats that can deepen their bench and fit with their matchup based philosophy. Unlike the bullpen, the Twins and Royals likely won't in the market for the same offensive additions in the trade market.
    Brock Beauchamp
    Ken Rosenthal in his recent roundup for The Athletic, mentioned that it's likely the Miami Marlins will be looking to deal pitchers at this trade deadline. They already moved Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres early in the season and with new President of Baseball Operations Peter Bendix tasked with rebuilding a painfully depleted Marlins farm system, it's likely he will use the trade deadline to build out the farm system.
    Three names mentioned are starting pitchers Jesus Luzardo and Braxton Garrett while reliever Tanner Scott is also likely to be dealt. Scott is on an expiring contract this season but starters Luzardo (free agent after 2026 season) and Garrett (free agent after 2028 season) are long-term pieces that would require a hefty prospect price.
    While it's questionable whether the Twins will be in the starter market at the trade deadline, their volatile bullpen performance could make Scott an appealing trade pickup.
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