As the countdown to the 2026 MLB Draft continues, most evaluators agree on one thing: nobody truly knows how the first three picks will unfold. That uncertainty is exactly what makes this year's draft so intriguing for the Twins.
In his latest attempt to project the top of the draft, MLB.com draft expert Jim Callis laid out six different scenarios for the first three selections. While there are certainly other possibilities, his projections reinforce the idea that three elite prospects have separated themselves from the rest of the class. The debate centers around three names: UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky, Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey, and prep shortstop Grady Emerson.
For Minnesota, that's a pretty good place to be.
Cholowsky Still Leads the Pack
Callis currently projects the White Sox to select Cholowsky with the first overall pick. That wouldn't qualify as a surprise. Cholowsky has spent much of the draft cycle viewed as the favorite to go No. 1 overall thanks to his polished all-around game, defensive value at shortstop, and offensive upside. He has been the most consistent name atop draft boards for months.
But consistency doesn't necessarily mean certainty. With several weeks remaining before draft night, teams are still gathering information, discussing bonus pool strategies, and determining whether another player might offer more value at the top of the board.
Lackey's Meteoric Rise
If Cholowsky goes first, Callis predicts the Rays would select Lackey with the second overall pick. Few players have boosted their stock more than the Georgia Tech backstop this spring. What began as a strong season evolved into a legitimate argument that Lackey could be the best player available in the entire draft.
Catchers always bring additional risk because of the physical demands of the position, but Lackey's offensive profile and defensive tools have convinced many evaluators that he belongs in the conversation for the first overall selection. In fact, several of Callis' scenarios have Lackey coming off the board before either Cholowsky or Emerson.
Emerson Could Be the Twins' Prize
Under Callis' most likely projection, Minnesota lands Emerson at No. 3 overall. Not long ago, many draft observers believed Emerson would be the favorite to go second overall to Tampa Bay. That's no longer a consensus view, but it illustrates just how fluid the top of this draft remains.
For the Twins, Emerson represents the type of upside teams dream about acquiring near the top of the draft. The prep shortstop has long been viewed as one of the most talented players in the class, and there are still plenty of scenarios where he doesn't make it past the first or second pick.
That's why Minnesota's front office is likely spending more time preparing for multiple outcomes than targeting one specific player.
Another factor worth monitoring is Kentucky shortstop Tyler Bell. Callis noted that Bell could be willing to sign for less than slot value if selected within the top five picks. Those types of bonus considerations can dramatically alter draft boards.
If a team believes it can save money early and redistribute those dollars later in the draft, Bell could become an appealing option. Any surprise move involving Bell would create a ripple effect that impacts the prospects available when Minnesota is on the clock.
The Odds Favor Minnesota
Callis assigned probabilities to six potential outcomes involving the first three selections:
From Minnesota's perspective, the math works out quite nicely. Those projections give the Twins roughly a 43% chance of landing Lackey, a 31% chance of selecting Emerson, and a 29% chance of ending up with Cholowsky. When the possible outcomes are the three best players in the draft, those are odds any front office would gladly accept.
A Familiar Situation
This year's draft bears some resemblance to the 2023 draft. That summer, the Twins benefited from the inaugural MLB Draft Lottery, jumping from the 13th pick to the fifth overall selection. The top of that draft featured a clear group of elite prospects, and Minnesota's strategy was simple: wait and take whichever premium talent remained available. The result was Walker Jenkins, who has remained the organization's top prospect ever since.
The Twins could find themselves following a similar blueprint this year. Rather than being locked into one player, Minnesota appears positioned to let the first two picks dictate its decision. With Cholowsky, Lackey, and Emerson all viewed as top-tier talents, the organization may simply select whichever member of that trio is still available.
Draft season often becomes a search for certainty, but this year's class isn't offering much of it at the top. What it is offering, however, is opportunity.
The White Sox and Rays will ultimately determine how the board unfolds, but Minnesota enters the process in an enviable position. Whether it's Cholowsky's polish, Lackey's rising star power, or Emerson's immense upside, the Twins appear likely to walk away with one of the draft's premier talents.
With less than a month until commissioner Rob Manfred steps to the podium, the picture remains cloudy. For the Twins, that's perfectly fine. Sometimes the best draft strategy is letting the talent come to you.
There is roughly a month remaining before the 2026 MLB Draft, and most of the top amateur prospects have already wrapped up their seasons. With the on-field evaluations largely complete, front offices are entering the most challenging phase of the process.
At this point, the draft becomes less about collecting new information and more about determining organizational preferences. Teams must weigh talent against signability, bonus pool strategy, and long-term upside. It is a complicated balancing act, especially near the top of the draft, where every decision can reshape a farm system.
In his latest mock draft, Keith Law presented a scenario that would likely have Twins fans sprinting to the podium if it became reality.
Law projects the White Sox to select catcher Vahn Lackey with the first overall pick. Lackey's stock has steadily climbed throughout the spring, and he has become one of the hottest names in the draft class. His combination of offensive production and defensive value behind the plate has made him a favorite among evaluators. The connection to Minnesota is notable because there has been industry speculation that the Twins have spent considerable time evaluating Lackey as a potential third-overall pick.
The bigger surprise in Law's mock comes with the second selection. He has the Rays taking Tyler Bell, a player Tampa Bay originally drafted out of high school before he chose the college route. Bell is a talented prospect, but most public draft boards have not consistently placed him among the top three players available. The selection would likely indicate that Tampa Bay is prioritizing bonus pool flexibility, potentially saving money at the top of the draft in order to be aggressive later on.
If that sequence unfolds, Minnesota would be left with an opportunity that currently feels almost too good to be true. Law has the Twins selecting Roch Cholowsky with the third overall pick. For much of the draft cycle, Cholowsky has been viewed by many evaluators as the favorite to go first overall. He is widely regarded as one of the most complete players in the class, combining a polished offensive profile with the defensive ability to remain at shortstop. Depending on who you ask, he is either the best college shortstop available or the best overall player in the entire draft.
That is why this mock stands out. Most projections have Cholowsky off the board before Minnesota is on the clock. If he somehow reaches the third pick, it would be difficult to imagine the Twins passing on the opportunity. Talent tends to win out at the top of the draft, and Cholowsky's combination of floor and upside would make him an ideal addition to the organization's long-term plans.
Of course, Minnesota would still have attractive alternatives available if the board unfolds differently. Texas prep standout Grady Emerson remains one of the most exciting hitters in the class and has generated significant buzz throughout the scouting community. Meanwhile, Jackson Flora has emerged as the top college pitching prospect available and could provide the Twins with another premium talent to consider.
Both players would represent strong selections at No. 3 overall. Still, if Cholowsky is sitting there when Minnesota is on the clock, the decision could be one of the easiest the organization has made in years.
The reality is that mock drafts remain educated guesses, and there is still plenty of time for opinions to change before draft day arrives. Teams continue gathering medical information, conducting final meetings, and refining bonus strategies. One unexpected selection can completely alter the board.
That uncertainty is what makes the MLB Draft so fascinating. Today, Law's projection gives the Twins a dream scenario. Whether that scenario survives the next month of rumors, negotiations, and last-minute adjustments remains to be seen.
The picture at the top of the MLB Draft is becoming clearer, and all signs point toward the Minnesota Twins focusing heavily on Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey with the third overall pick. According to Baseball America, “Minnesota has had a lot of high-level decision makers scouting Vahn Lackey this spring.”
That report lines up with how the draft board appears to be developing. UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky has looked like the favorite to land with the Chicago White Sox at first overall for much of the year. He entered the spring as a strong candidate for the top pick and has only strengthened that case with his performance this season.
The second pick belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays, and they have consistently been connected to prep shortstop Grady Emerson throughout the draft cycle. There is still a chance Tampa Bay pivots to Lackey if he remains available, but many recent mock drafts have Emerson heading to the Rays at number two overall.
If the board falls that way, Lackey could slide directly into Minnesota’s lap. The appeal is easy to understand.
At Georgia Tech, Lackey is continuing a strong tradition of first-round catching talent, including Jason Varitek, Matt Wieters, Joey Bart, and Kevin Parada. He has been one of the best offensive catchers in college baseball this spring while also showing the athleticism teams covet behind the plate.
Through his first 47 games, Lackey is slashing .371/.491/.682 with a 1.173 OPS, 12 home runs, and nine stolen bases. That combination of impact offense and athletic ability has helped push him into the upper tier of this draft class.
His rise has not been a traditional one. Lackey was a late bloomer in high school and did not receive Division I offers until his senior year. Even in college, his development trajectory has continued to trend upward as he has added polish to both sides of his game.
Defensively, scouts believe there is still more room for growth. Lackey is agile behind the plate and moves well for the position, giving evaluators confidence that he can become a dependable receiver and blocker as he improves his consistency and focus. His arm strength and accuracy already stand out as major assets.
For the Twins, that profile makes plenty of sense. The organization has leaned toward polished college talent in recent drafts, especially players with a blend of upside and relatively high floors, including Brooks Lee, Kaelen Culpepper, and Marek Houston. Catchers with Lackey’s offensive ceiling and athletic traits are difficult to find, and Minnesota may view him as one of the safer premium bats near the top of the board.
If the Twins ultimately go in another direction, college pitcher Jackson Flora and prep shortstop Jacob Lombard appear to be among the other realistic options tied to the third pick.
Still, as the draft draws closer, the momentum around Lackey continues to build. Unless something changes in the first two selections, the Twins may soon find themselves adding another cornerstone talent to the organization, and one who could eventually become the long-term answer behind the plate.
The calendar may still read April, but draft season is already beginning to take shape. In his latest update for The Athletic, Keith Law reshuffled the board for the 2026 MLB Draft, offering a clearer picture of how the top of the class is evolving. For the Twins, who currently sit in the third spot, that clarity comes with both opportunity and complication.
At the top, UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky has long been viewed as the frontrunner to go first overall to the Chicago White Sox. That perception has not completely disappeared, but Law suggests the gap is tightening. A handful of college standouts are making compelling late pushes, giving both the White Sox and the Rays, who pick second, more to think about before Minnesota is on the clock.
One of the fastest risers in Law’s rankings is Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey. The right-handed hitter has put together a dominant offensive season, showcasing a rare blend of patience and power. He is controlling the strike zone at an elite level, drawing more walks than strikeouts while doing significant damage when he connects. Lackey has also flashed surprising athleticism, even contributing on the bases, and evaluators remain confident in his ability to remain behind the plate long term. That combination of offensive impact and defensive value has pushed him into the conversation at the very top of the draft.
On the pitching side, UC Santa Barbara right-hander Jackson Flora continues to build momentum. His performance this spring has been nothing short of overpowering, backed by premium velocity that regularly reaches triple digits and comfortably sits in the upper 90s. Flora complements the fastball with a devastating changeup that earns top-of-the-scale grades, while his slider and command round out a well-balanced arsenal. His delivery adds an element of deception, making his already electric stuff even tougher for hitters to pick up. Among pitchers in this class, he stands alone as the most realistic candidate to challenge for the first overall selection.
Kentucky infielder Tyler Bell presents a different type of evaluation. After suffering a shoulder injury early in the season, Bell missed time before returning to the lineup and continuing to produce at a high level. His on-base skills have been particularly impressive, driven by a disciplined approach that limits chase and forces pitchers into the zone. There will be medical questions to answer, and teams will need to be comfortable with the long-term outlook, but his performance has kept him firmly in the mix as one of the better bats in the class. For a team like Minnesota, risk tolerance will play a key role in determining whether he remains a viable option.
Beyond those names, Law’s rankings continue to highlight the depth of the class. High school shortstop Grady Emerson represents one of the top prep talents available, while college hitters Eric Becker and Drew Burress have both put themselves on the radar with strong offensive showings. Each brings a different profile, giving teams multiple pathways depending on their preferences for risk, development timeline, and positional value.
For the Twins, the takeaway is simple but significant. There may not be a clear-cut choice waiting at three, but there should be a talented one. How the board unfolds ahead of them will dictate whether they lean toward a polished college bat, a high upside arm, or a longer-term prep investment.
The Minnesota Twins will have options when they step to the podium with the third overall pick in this summer’s draft, but recent performances are beginning to shape the conversation in a meaningful way. One name that continues to gain traction is Jackson Flora, a college right-hander whose combination of production, stuff, and projection is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
Industry outlets are starting to align on his value. Baseball America currently slots Flora as the third-best prospect in the class, while MLB Pipeline has him further back at 14th overall. That gap may not last much longer. MLB Pipeline recently highlighted Flora as the top emerging college pitcher in the draft, and his latest outings suggest that label is more reality than projection.
In his most recent start, Flora worked nine shutout innings while allowing just four hits. He issued a pair of walks and struck out nine hitters, continuing a dominant run. Across eight starts, he has yet to take a loss and owns an ERA under 1.00. In just over 52 innings, he has limited opponents to 26 hits while striking out 65 and walking only 15. It is the type of statistical profile that demands attention, even in a class loaded with talent.
What makes Flora particularly intriguing is how his arsenal continues to evolve. His fastball comfortably sits in the mid-90s and can reach triple digits. The slider has long been considered his primary secondary weapon, operating in the mid to upper 80s with the ability to miss bats consistently. However, it was his changeup that stole the spotlight in his most recent outing. He leaned on it more frequently than his slider against Cal Poly, showing growing confidence in a pitch that could ultimately round out a complete three-pitch mix.
That development matters because Flora is not just overpowering hitters. He is doing so with control. His strikeout rate sits north of 30%, but just as importantly, he is limiting free passes at a rate under 8%. The ability to command multiple pitches in the zone separates him from many of his peers and raises his floor as a starting pitching prospect.
Physically, Flora checks every box teams look for in a frontline starter. At six-foot-five, he generates premium velocity with relative ease and maintains it deep into outings. His fastball has shown strong shape with late life, while his slider usage includes both a sweeping version with significant horizontal movement and a firmer, tighter breaking ball. The changeup continues to trend upward, flashing the kind of late dive that can neutralize opposite-handed hitters.
At the top of the draft, much of the intrigue centers around what happens after Roch Cholowsky, who is widely viewed as the likely first overall selection. The Chicago White Sox are expected to make that call, leaving the next handful of picks open to interpretation. The Tampa Bay Rays go in several directions, including prep shortstops like Grady Emerson or Jacob Lombard, or a college bat such as Justin Lebron.
That uncertainty creates an opening for a player like Flora to climb. Pitching always carries risk, but teams picking near the top of the draft often prioritize impact, and Flora is beginning to look like one of the few arms in this class capable of providing it at a high level.
For the Twins, the decision at three will ultimately come down to how the board falls and how they balance ceiling with certainty. Flora is making a strong case that he offers both. If his current trajectory holds and he continues to dominate while refining his secondary pitches, he may not just be in the conversation. He could be one of the most compelling options available when Minnesota is on the clock.