Trevor Larnach is Twins' Most Interesting Non-Tender Candidate

[Cody Pirkl]

The November 20 arbitration deadline is just around the corner, and the Twins have a handful of decisions to make. Trevor Larnach is probably right on the fence as to whether he’s worth tendering a contract to. The Twins’ decision will speak volumes about their plans and how they view the rest of the roster.

A first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Larnach is due for his last trip through arbitration before becoming a free agent. He was a non-tender candidate last offseason, and the Twins chose to stick with him. They were rewarded with a career year from Larnach, as he posted a .788 OPS. Despite his strong production, Larnach was a big part of the left-handed logjam the front office created for itself. Though some of this logjam will be cleared up regardless of the Larnach decision, the team could open things up quite a bit by cutting Larnach loose.

It’s no secret that the Twins have far too many left-handed-hitting outfielders at or near the MLB level. Things have reached the point where evaluating some of them has become extremely difficult. While top prospects such as Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodríguez will be prioritized, the team has plenty of potentially useful options who have struggled to get opportunities. 

This would be irrelevant if Larnach were a slam dunk at his projected $6.3 million in salary, but that’s a difficult argument to make. Larnach’s career production before 2026 made it worth questioning whether he was worth the $4.475 million he made this season. Though his production made him worth the price, the 2027 team context (along with his age and career profile) may give the Twins pause.

While Larnach was a career-best 23% more productive than an average hitter in 2026, he continued to show a surprisingly modest amount of power. His production was carried by a career-high OBP and his best batting average on balls in play since 2022. While this is a valuable skill, his career-best .436 slugging percentage keeps him from being an impact, middle-of-the-order bat. His ceiling is limited, and he’s shown his floor to be extremely low in previous seasons.

Injuries have to be part of the equation with Larnach. He’s had somewhat frequent stretches each season of being either in and out of the lineup, limited to DH duties, or entirely unavailable due to the injury bug. It was also just announced that he will undergo arthroscopic wrist surgery this offseason, which still has plenty of time to heal, but is not great news for a soon-to-be 30-year-old corner outfielder who already lacks power.

Larnach would be the team’s worst defensive option in left field, to boot. The team has preached for years that they want to become more fundamentally sound. Speed and defense are constantly the stated goals (though we’ve seen little implementation of this), and Larnach offers neither, being a below-average runner and regularly posting negative marks in defensive metrics.

There are plenty of marks against tendering Larnach a contract, but when it comes down to it, his production in 2026 would have been worth that price. Tendering him and awarding him the starting left-field job by default would be the safest option, as the team could preserve depth and keep at least one top prospect in St. Paul. Paying him may signify that the team believes in his 2026 production, and may even believe there’s more to unlock.

There’s a legitimate argument against tendering him, however. We’ve seen Larnach’s floor plenty of times throughout his career, and if 2026 is his ceiling, it could be easily argued that the Twins have plenty of other options that could meet or exceed that production. If he’s non-tendered, it shows that they agree. They could hand the position to Alan Roden, a vastly superior defender with similar on-base-driven offensive production. They could also entrust that job to Rodríguez, who will have to make the Opening Day roster in 2027.

A trade would be the middle course, and might be the wisest. Larnach isn't a great fit for the 2027 Twins, but he might have done enough in 2026 to make another team willing to gamble on him, even at a moderate cost. If the Twins can get something for him in trade, it could simplify their dilemma about whether to tender him a deal. That creates a de facto trade deadline for him in one week, though, so one way or another, something is about to happen.

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The non-tender deadline will bring clarity to the Twins’ plans for 2027, and with two of their top prospects as candidates to fill in, the Larnach decision may be the most interesting. How should they proceed?

Image courtesy of USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

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[Linus]

The wrist surgery just made this a whole lot more complicated. If the Twins plan was to tender him and then trade him ( after all they are quite adept at that move /sc) it seems like a very risky play now. A trade partner won’t have any idea until January? if he is back and healthy. He’s really not a player with enough upside to take that kind of risk. If the Twins tender him he is most likely with the club in 27. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

If 3 teams truly want him right now, get whatever you can for him via trade. Otherwise dfa him and wish him well. 

The absolute worst thing would be to offer him arbitration and then have him take up a spot on the team. They need better defense, not worse.