Matt Wallner: A Powerful Assessment

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, ashbury said:

Why do you think Wallner was the sole plan?  Besides the possibility that Outman could resuscitate his career (I don't know what evidence they relied on for that), there were two high-ranking prospects rostered at AAA.  The day Wallner was sent down, Walker Jenkins was on the injured list for the umpteenth time, and Emmanuel Rodriguez was on the injured list for the umpteen-plus-first time.  How many plans do you demand of a front office beyond B, C, and D, involving major-league-quality players who can be plugged in at will?  If anything, the untimely absence of these options could have sustained Wallner's time on the roster for longer than otherwise would have been tenable given the collapse of Wallner's productivity.  I.e., under-reaction rather than over-reaction.

As for the analogy you offered, I use analogies as much as the next guy on the internet, but to use the analogy for an extended argument it needs to be pretty solid.  Substance abuse can be disguised by the person for extended periods of time and then suddenly it re-manifests.  Inability to hit a high fastball, if that's Wallner's problem, isn't so easy to disguise.  Not to mention, an incident of throwing up on an inlaw feels like punching down.

I apologize for the analogy. Admittedly... it was tortured, without a doubt. I attempted to pivot from "poof" and failed. I apologize for the offense. I apologize for the failure. In my younger days, I could have come up with 10 better alternatives. I've slipped in my old age, and the times are much less tolerant of my efforts.

Why do I think Wallner was the sole plan?

I'm not going to prove it was the sole plan. How about... it wasn't a very good plan if there was. There certainly wasn't a publicized rumor of an OF upgrade. 

My indicators would be roster construction and managerial utilization. I really, really watched utilization last year. And then there's Tom Pohlad announcing that they were going for it.

I assumed they weren't turning things over to the kids at that point and they didn't go with the kids so I my assumption could still be valid. But... that's another discussion. 

Other than that... admittedly... I have no idea what Plan B was. They have a depth chart, I assume. Next man up is the next man up. Qualifications be damned. 

If you think it was Emma... OK, it was Emma. However, that opens another discussion because Emma had 200-some PA in St. Paul and a 31.6% K rate in 2025. If I had to guess, he may well have been the plan. Because if Buxton got hurt, it wasn't going to be bulk work from Outman. So Emma (who has also been hurt quite a bit as you mention) might have been it. Kreidler was called up when Wallner was sent down. He went immediately into platoon with Outman initially. 

Interesting Note: Matt Wallner had a 27.3% K rate with the Saints in 2026.  

Jenkins? Maybe. He's our biggest prospect in quite some time. However, that's a 40-man addition with 102 PA. That's a pretty quick crank-up of the clock at age 20.

What I'm reasonably confident about is this: It wasn't Outman.

Outman was a very specific role player. Give Buxton a breather in CF, late-game defensive replacement, and pinch runner.

No matter how bad things got for Wallner, Shelton didn't turn to Outman. He had 33 PA when Wallner was sent down. He started in CF four times when Buxton took a day off. He stepped in to play LF when Larnach moved to DH for a game. He stepped in to play RF on April 19. Wallner was originally in the lineup but was scratched that day with a reported rib injury.

Interesting Note: Wallner had a rib injury. He sat two days before an off day and was back on the horse after that. No trip to the IL. Time to heal? Incidentally. The eventual dwindling also starting right about this time. 

Outman is out. He was never the guy. And this is why I hate role players. We always need them to be more than they are.

The other role player was Austin Martin.

We know it wasn't Martin. Someone had to cover for Larnach against left-handed starters. We all know that was Martin's assigned job. That, along with pinch running and late-game defensive replacement duties. That sort of thing.

He eventually started playing RF, and he was killing all those lefties to start the season. But Martin didn't seriously move into RF until the Wallner demotion. And this, of course, exposed Larnach to more left-handed pitching. It's like a cat chasing its tail. Martin can't be the contingency plan if expanding his role just creates another contingency problem elsewhere. That's another discussion, of course.

Then there's the timing.

He had just struck 10 times in his last 12 PA's. The day of the Wallner demotion, Trevor Larnach was also out with upper-back tightness.

Interesting Note: The Wallner demotion was sudden/urgent enough that they made the move with Larnach hurt badly enough to miss the next three games.

The timing is... what? At the very least, it's worthy of questions.

Outman also saw a major kick in playing time after the Wallner demotion. But it wasn't Wallner's departure that caused that uptick. It was Buxton, who developed a right hip flexor issue the very next day.

The Wallner demotion right between Larnach and Buxton injury. It's why I keep talking about the role of role players over and over again. Because it's an important discussion... particularly right now, at this critical juncture.

Ok... What do you think?

Minnesota had some severe injury problems in May. Wallner's demotion came right in the MIDST of those injuries. Doesn't that seem suddenly urgent? Here's the real question. Do you think Minnesota had adequate coverage for Wallner? Especially if this fastball-exploitation problem already existed? And they are going for it. 

Myself... I don't think they had adequate coverage for Wallner, and I'm surprised you're even considering the possibility that they might have. 

To me, it looks like Wallner was selected... chosen... relied upon for a significant role. Not even a platoon attachment. It was every day Wally. 

To me that says, "Let's rock and roll."

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

20 hours ago, ashbury said:

How many plans do you demand of a front office beyond B, C, and D, involving major-league-quality players who can be plugged in at will?

In consideration of my posting content and the volume of it. In consideration of myself making the same points in regards to injuries, role players, platoons, 26 and 40 man spots being pure gold.

The same points that I repeat over and over and over again. 

You are seriously asking me this question?  

Analogies are not the only place that I'm failing. 

I do not believe that a short side platoon bat in Martin and a defensive replacement in Outman that is so bad offensively that he is not trusted to out hit the sub .600 OPS that Wallner was producing... Despite being a better defender is a sensible Plan B. 

Emma could have been Plan D but we kind of skipped over Martin and Outman.