Ranking Probable AL Playoff Teams

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Currently, there are eight AL teams with a record above .500. With the recent "struggles" of the Rangers and Rays, as well as the lack of dominance from recent perennial pennant chasers like the Astros and Yankees, the field lacks (a) juggernaut(s) at the top, like the NL. The field is very even this year, and the AL pennant will likely be determined by who gets hot at the right time. 

Baltimore Orioles: 79-48 (101-61 Pace)

Traditionally, a 100+ win team would qualify as a juggernaut. They do have an elite back end of the bullpen and have only lost 11 one-score games (tied for first in MLB). They also have an AL-best 42-31 record against teams with a winning record, indicating the strength of their performance against top teams. However, there are a couple of big question marks. Their offense has scored fewer runs than the 4th-place Red Sox, and they've conceded more runs than all but two of the teams on this list. They currently only have one starter with a sub-4.00 ERA (Kyle Braddish), who is only in his second season. Relying on two or three of Kyle Gibson, Jack Flaherty, Dean Kremer, Grayson Rodriguez, or Cole Irvin to fill out the rest of your rotation seems suspect (at best), and it hurts the O's chance of a World Series quite considerably.

Tampa Bay Rays: 78-51 (98-64 Pace)

The team that was a juggernaut through the first two months of the season has cooled off considerably; however, the Rays still boast a terrific lineup. They've scored the second most runs in the AL, and have known clutch-hitting-master Randy Arozarena. After the injury to ace (and likely top-2 Cy Young guy before injury) Shane McClanahan, the third spot in their playoff rotation remains a still-strong Aaron Civale. There are seven bullpen arms with sub-3.50 ERAs (with at least 25 appearances), and they sport (probably) the best staff in the postseason despite losing a top-5 pitcher in baseball. Run differential is a flawed stat, but they are 3rd in baseball in that category, with an RD twice as high as the Orioles. Although they are not on a historic pace as they were in May, they still remain a very potent team.

Texas Rangers: 72-55 (92-70 Pace)

Probably the busiest team at the deadline, bringing in Max Scherzer, Aroldis Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, and Austin Hedges, the Rangers are making a big push to win now. Besides the Braves, they are the only team that could produce a lineup with every batter possessing an OPS+ above 100, which explains why they've scored almost as many runs as the Braves. They have an embarrassment of riches in their rotation with the aforementioned Scherzer and Montgomery, as well as Nathan Eovaldi, Dane Dunning, and Jon Gray. Their bullpen is probably the biggest reason why they are not on pace for 100 wins, as Aroldis Chapman, Jose Leclerc, and Chris Stratton are their only relievers with a sub-3.40 ERA. As we saw last night (08/24), their bullpen can and will cost them dearly if it doesn't improve. Because of their current seven-game losing streak, they are going to have to fight hard to keep their division crown (and bye-week) in their hands.

Seattle Mariners: 71-56 (91-71 Pace)

The Mariners have been the hottest team since the deadline, and if they can keep this up, they will be the definition of "it's not how you start, it's how you finish." Again, run differential is a flawed stat, but they are within one RD of the Orioles. They have conceded the second-fewest runs in baseball, and top to bottom, they rival the Rays for the top staff in baseball. A rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert looks terrific, and the Mariners' great depth in the bullpen would allow them to fill a potential 4th-spot with a bullpen day (or rookie Bryce Miller, who has a 3.78 ERA). Their lineup was pretty terrible in the first half, but their recent hot streak has been propelled by their offense, and their season numbers are now closer to league average (on offense). 

Houston Astros: 72-57 (90-72 Pace)

The defending champions are in a very precarious position. With the surging Mariners and the strength of the Orioles/Rays, the Astros are currently in the 6th seed, and the way everyone is playing, it appears more like The Jays/Sox have a better chance of catching up to them than the Astros do of catching the Mariners/Rays/Orioles. Their rotation, an undeniable strength of their '17-'22 teams, now looks like a weakness, with Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander being the only guys who are unquestioned playoff starters. Likely two of JP France, Hunter Brown, Christian Javier, Brandon Bielak, or Jose Urquidy, will be needed to make multiple starts if the Astros are to make a deep playoff push. Although they've scored a lot of runs, they only have six guys with an OPS+ above 100, indicating that their lineup is very top-heavy. The backend of their bullpen is fantastic, as usual, but the Astros, as a whole, seem a lot weaker than in years past.

Toronto Blue Jays: 70-58 (89-73 Pace)

They are the best team at preventing runs and have a terrific postseason rotation of Gausman/Berrios/Ryu/Bassitt. Bichette, Chapman, Guerrero, and Belt form the bulk of their offensive firepower, as down years from George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Daulton Varsho have limited the overall offensive production. The hype about the Rays/Orioles has stolen a lot of the AL East media oxygen from the Blue Jays, but rest assured, they still present a very formidable squad. Their remaining schedule looks very favorable, as their next five series are against weak opponents, including the worst three teams in baseball (Rockies, Royals, and A's), and I would wager that they will be in a playoff spot come Labor Day. Their bullpen has a decent amount of depth, and Jordan Romano is back and healthy. The 11-year-old in me would like to mention that Tim Mayza has an ERA+ of 420, which is extremely good. Their rotation gives them great strength, and their offense, while unimpressive so far, has enough quality to compete in October.

Boston Red Sox: 68-60 (86-76 Pace)

Another team that has not been getting the time of day because they don't currently occupy a playoff spot, the Red Sox, are sneakily within 3.5 of a playoff berth. Their remaining schedule is not easy at all; however, they do have remaining series against the Rangers and Astros, giving them some amount of control over their future despite their 11.1% odds to make the postseason (per baseball reference). While they may not have the name recognition, Bryan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and James Paxton, all have sub-3.80 ERAs and could be an okay rotation in the postseason. Similarly, their lineup, while not possessing marquee names like years past, has performed very well, and they've scored the 6th most runs in the MLB to date. Unlike years past, this Red Sox bullpen is not god-awful, with Jansen, Winckowski, Martin, and Bernardino all possessing sub-3.10 ERAs and the ability to avoid bullpen implosions on the order of the 2016 Cincinnati Reds. 

Minnesota Twins: 66-62 (84-78 Pace)

In 1987, the Twins won 85 games, they had a new uniform design, and the last remaining undefeated team started the year 13-0. The Twins are currently within a game's pace of completing this trifecta, though they'll need more than weird coincidences to make a deep playoff run. Sonny Gray, Pablo Lopez, and Kenta Maeda form a terrific three-man rotation, with the top two likely top-10 finishers in AL Cy Young voting and the bottom one having a second-place finish the last year he was healthy (albeit in the COVID-shortened season). The bullpen quartet of Duran, Jax, Thielbar, and Pagan likely ranks around the middle of the teams on this list, and starters like Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober give plenty of depth and flexibility to this staff. Their offensive struggles have been well-documented, though they've only scored one fewer run than the Blue Jays. The lineup is certainly flawed, over-relying on young guys like Jeffers, Lewis, Kirilloff, and Julien to provide a spark, while veterans like Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, and Polanco have not produced much. They are certainly not an impressive or scary postseason team, but they will be playing an opening series at home, and we've seen where good pitching can take teams in October.

 

My Rankings:

1. Tampa Bay Rays

2. Seattle Mariners

3. Baltimore Orioles

4. Texas Rangers

5. Houston Astros

6. Toronto Blue Jays

7. Minnesota Twins

8. Boston Red Sox

 

Conclusion:

There are three echelons within my rankings, as the Rays and Mariners stick out as clear top teams, while the Red Sox look like long shots to play October baseball. I weigh pitching very heavily, and the two best pitching staffs occupy the top two spots on my list. I am not very high on the Orioles because of their weaknesses in the rotation, and I would likely rank them 6th/7th if they were on pace for 90 wins as opposed to 100 (the bye-week played a role in this decision). Sticking with the theme of bye week, the Rangers seem likely to lose theirs, but the quality of their rotation and lineup cannot be ignored. In the ALWC and ALDS, it is easier to mask deficiencies in your bullpen, and they remain a dangerous team despite their losing streak. I gave the Astros the edge over the Jays because of their experience, and I am not too concerned about their rotation, though it is considerably weaker than last year. The Twins have the worst record and offense, though they have the edge over the Red Sox, as their pitching staff, though underrated, is still by far the worst on this list. 

[GusGus11]

My Twins wish list

Blue Jays(wont make it, they are chokers)

Mariners. Great starters but righties and the most flawed lineup.

Rangers. Them adding Montgomery plus their offense is tough for us.

Astros. Nightmare. Get ready for 20 in a row. Valdez and his bolwing ball from the left side and JV. Please no.

Looking more likely we get one of the bottom 2 which is wild and scary.