WPA - Hit for the cycle and decrease the probability of winning

[jorgenswest]

There have been a lot of new measures in the last decade. Many help frame the game of baseball in new ways.

 

WPA - Win Probability Added tries to measures a players impact on winning games.

 

Earlier this week Mike Trout hit for the cycle and stole a base. His WPA for the game was -0.012. His performance that day decreased the probability his team would win the game.

 

Jose Bautista posted a WPA of over 1 in his two homeruns walk off performance earlier this week. I am not sure what that means, but the Blue Jays sure could use two wins for one given their rough start.

 

still interested?

 

Great Moments in Numerical Oddities: Mike Trout?s Zero Hour | Getting Blanked | Blogs | theScore.com

[drjim]

Wouldn't WPA need to be negative to decrease the chance of a victory?

 

Just means his cycle happened in low leverage at bats, or his out(s) was early in the game when it would be more negative.