Twins Fantasy Fix (7/16): A leadoff launching pad?

[Mike Rose]

Carlos Correa has done well since taking over as Minnesota’s leadoff hitter and could be poised for a strong second half.

Image courtesy of Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

 

The Twins started their post-break schedule with two wins over the struggling Oakland Athletics, bringing their record to 47-46 with 69 games left. As far as opponents go, this is about par for the course in the second half. According to Tankathon’s calculations, the teams left on Minnesota’s schedule have a combined .471 winning percentage. That’s the second easiest in MLB.

Now could be a time to get some players right for fantasy purposes, particularly on offense. After wrapping up against Oakland, the Twins head to Seattle. The Mariners pitch pretty well, sitting fifth in team ERA, but Minnesota also faces the White Sox (25th in team ERA) and Royals (28th) this month. Then, the Twins will get St. Louis (24th) and Detroit (22nd) in early August. Minnesota hitters have been inconsistent all season, but these matchups could be just what the doctor ordered. The Twins have scored 15 runs in two games after finishing the first half with five total runs during a three-game sweep against Baltimore.

Let’s now look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week and a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates

Jose Miranda
Expected return: TBD

Miranda was in the initial lineup Friday before getting scratched due to shoulder soreness and sent to the 10-day injured list. It remains to be seen how long he’ll be out, but his absence has opened up a spot for Matt Wallner (more on him below).

Royce Lewis
Expected return: Mid-August or later
Lewis continues to recover from a Grade 2 oblique strain. He should return sometime next month and take over again at third base.

Brock Stewart
Expected return: Mid-July
Stewart is dealing with right elbow tendinitis and was expected back soon after the break, so he should be able to rejoin the club in the next few days. 

Jorge Polanco
Expected return: Late July
Polanco will begin an extended rehab assignment on July 16 as he slowly returns from a hamstring strain. The Twins will surely be cautious here, but when Polanco can return, they’ll have an interesting dilemma with Edouard Julien at second base.

Stock Rising: Carlos Correa
ESPN Ownership: 74%
Correa started batting leadoff on June 30 and has taken off in the new role. In 11 games since then, he’s batting .364 with a .871 OPS. He’s yet to hit a leadoff home run, but if the power comes and the batting average stays up, a big second half could be in order. I already mentioned the soft pitching Minnesota will face in the near term, which only further boosts Correa’s outlook. He’s available on the waiver wire in some shallower leagues, and in the leagues where he’s owned, his trade value remains decreased due to his subpar first half. I’ve been banging the drum for taking a flier on the shortstop, and I’ll bang the drum even louder now.

Stock Falling: Jose Miranda
ESPN Ownership: 35%
Any thought of Miranda picking up steam with his latest opportunity in the majors likely ended when he hit the injured list. He’ll be out for at least ten days and possibly longer, and Lewis is expected back sometime next month. In the meantime, the Twins will rotate the likes of Willi Castro, Kyle Farmer, and Donovan Solano at the hot corner, with Wallner and Joey Gallo likely seeing the bulk of the playing time in left field. If Wallner performs well when called upon, Miranda may stay in the minors, even if he’s ready to go before Lewis. 

Prospect Spotlight: Matt Wallner (Current team: Minnesota)
As noted above, Miranda’s absence has opened the door for Wallner. The 25-year-old has a .927 OPS across 67 games in Triple-A and 1.099 OPS over 11 games with the Twins earlier in the year, so he could be an offensive weapon if the playing time materializes. Wallner continues to strike out a fair amount, but the power is real. Consider taking a flier on the young outfielder if he gets hot, or at the very least look his way in daily formats when he’s in the lineup, as he should be pretty affordable.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
4 Games at Seattle (Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, George Kirby)
3 Games vs White Sox (Lance Lynn, Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito)

I mentioned that Seattle is a tough pitching matchup, and the Twins are set to face All-Stars in Castillo and Kirby. The Mariners have been more middling on offense, as they sit 17th in the league in runs scored. The White Sox have some good starters on paper but own a 4.59 ERA as a team. On offense, they’re 23rd in runs scored.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers
Sonny Gray and Bailey Ober are both lined up to start twice. I like both Minnesota starters, with
neither the Mariners nor the White Sox being particularly imposing offensively. Based on their performance so far, they should be locked into lineups.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
As noted above, I’m pushing my chips in on Correa, though a few of the matchups look tricky. He hasn’t faced the two Seattle aces and has struggled against each of the Chicago starters, batting .200 or lower versus all three. Still, I trust his recent form and think he can still have a good week.

Gallo hit a big home run Friday, but I’ll watch how playing time shakes out in the next week or so. If Wallner starts to overtake the veteran in left, it will change the fantasy prospects of booths players. Third base is the other place to monitor in the near term. It seems like the Twins will rotate a few players, but if someone gets hot and grabs hold of a more significant role, they could be worth picking up in deeper leagues or using in a DFS stack.

Speaking of stacks, Lynn looks like the pitcher to target this week with his 6.06 ERA. Woo is the least experienced starter the Twins will face, though the youngster has pitched well lately. Lynn, meanwhile, allowed four earned runs or more in two of his last three starts. He’s mostly done well against Minnesota hitters, though Castro has taken him deep twice in 10 career at-bats. 

Do you believe in Correa the leadoff hitter? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.

 

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[John Belinski]

When is Rocco going to drop Buxton to the bottom of lineup? No other manager would have a .200 hitter batting in 3 spot. Put Buxton on IR since he is just not helping team and is actually hurting team.

[Mike Rose]

2 hours ago, John Belinski said:

When is Rocco going to drop Buxton to the bottom of lineup? No other manager would have a .200 hitter batting in 3 spot. Put Buxton on IR since he is just not helping team and is actually hurting team.

I think we see the rubber meet the road soon, with Polanco returning. Does Julien take DH ABs then? Wallner/Gallo/Kepler also make sense as DH options against righties. Perhaps Buck finds himself on the short side of a platoon? I still find that hard to believe, even with his struggles, but you never know.  

[JoeCool]

8 hours ago, John Belinski said:

When is Rocco going to drop Buxton to the bottom of lineup? No other manager would have a .200 hitter batting in 3 spot. Put Buxton on IR since he is just not helping team and is actually hurting team.

I think the IR is coming for Buxton. He is for sure not at 100%. It’s time to get him sorted health wise and upgrade the DH production in his absence.  

Popkins needs to go as well. He is just not unlocking the potential of this lineup.  It’s obvious.