POLL: Who will win the NL East?

[cHawk]

3 National League Playoff Spots have been locked up, and another one is as good as locked up. The final spot that is still a question is the champion of the NL East. Who will it be? Will it be the Braves or the Phillies? Please vote and share your opinion below:

[Otto von Ballpark]

I was hoping that the Phillies would make it interesting, but after last night's loss to Atlanta, the Phillies are now 3.5 games back with only 5 to play (potentially 6 to play for Atlanta -- they have a game vs the Rockies that would have to be made up next Monday if it has any playoff implications).

Phillies have a little control, with 2 more in Atlanta tonight (Wednesday) and tomorrow (Thursday). But their odds are down to about 3.8%, per Fangraphs.

Even if they can manage to win the next 2, the Phillies would still need some help from the Mets and potentially the Rockies:

https://tomahawktake.com/2021/09/27/the-atlanta-braves-game-scenarios-for-this-week/

• SCENARIO 3 – Braves lose 2 of 3 games vs. Philly.
  • In this scenario, the Phillies are still trailing by 1.5 games when they leave Atlanta, so they still would have a lot of work to do.
  • If Atlanta sweeps the Mets, the Phillies are closed out.
  • If Atlanta beats NY 2 of 3 times, the Phillies have to win out just to force the Colorado game to be played on Monday, October 4.
    • If Atlanta wins that, they win the division
    • if Atlanta loses, they tie with the Phillies.

[Otto von Ballpark]

After beating the Phillies again last night, Atlanta's magic number is down to 1 now. So unless they lose out while the Phillies win out, the NL East crown will be Atlanta's again.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And with yet another loss to Atlanta, the Phillies are now mathematically eliminated.