Road to October: A Breakdown of the Twins' 2021 Schedule

[Nash Walker]

Can we predict how the division race will go?Projection systems are not perfect. Every year, teams that are projected for massive win totals disappoint, and other teams, like the 2019 Twins, vastly outperform expectations. Using PECOTA win projections, where is the schedule heavier and lighter for the Twins in 2021?

 

APRIL - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 77

 

The Twins begin the season with a three-game series in Milwaukee against a Brewers club projected to win 90 games. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes are more-than-capable righties and Christian Yelich is always a matchup problem. The Crew presents the toughest challenge for the Twins in April.

 

The Twins then have 10 straight and seven at home against teams projected to win less than 80 games in the Tigers (65), Mariners (71) and Red Sox (79). The California road trip follows with three a piece in Anaheim and Oakland. Mike Trout’s Angels are projected for 86 wins and Matt Chapman’s A’s sit around 82.

 

The Twins enjoy a day off before welcoming the bottom-feeding Pirates (62) to Target Field. Eddie Rosario will play his old club at the end of the month when the Twins head to Cleveland (85) for three. The Twins start a three-game series with Kansas City (71) to close April.

 

MAY - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 74

 

There should be very little resistance for the first week-plus in May. The Twins face the Royals for two and the Rangers (67) for three at home. The Tigers (65) await in Detroit for three following the homestand.

 

The stingiest part of the month starts May 11 in Chicago against the White Sox (82). The Twins will return home to face the A’s for three and White Sox again for three after the Windy City visit. Cleveland will host the Twins the weekend of May 21.

 

If they can survive that tricky stretch, the Twins could dazzle a league-leading record after May. The Orioles (65) come to town for a three-game series followed by Kansas City. To finish, the Twins head to Camden Yards to face Baltimore again. Light work.

 

JUNE - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 80

 

As the weather heats up, so does the Twins’ schedule, but not immediately. They’ll finish the season series with Baltimore and then head to Kansas City to begin the summer. The Bronx Bombers make their annual trip to Target Field after an off-day. Good news for Twins fans: Didi Gregorius won’t be with the Yankees (99).

 

Minnesota will have a chance to actually show up to play when the Astros (92) visit the weekend of June 11. Then comes six faint road games: three in Seattle and three more in Texas. Luis Castillo and the Cincinnati Reds (79) head to Minneapolis for a two-game series starting June 21. The Twins finish the month with three versus Cleveland and three on the road against the White Sox.

 

The Twins host 10 of the 13 games against projected winning teams.

 

JULY - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 75

 

Minnesota is gifted four home games with the Tigers before the All-Star break, and then head to Detroit after for three more. 10 of the Twins’ 26 games in July are against the Royals or Tigers.

 

The Twins have a challenging seven game stretch starting the 19th with three in Chicago against the Sox and four at home against the Angels. After that: three more against the Tigers.

 

The Twins close the month in St.Louis against a Cardinals team projected for 80 wins. This month is more difficult than PECOTA lets on. The White Sox and Cardinals should both exceed conservative projections.

 

AUGUST - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 87

 

Similar to 2019, August is by far the Twins’ most demanding month of the season. The three-city road trip runs through St.Louis, Cincy and Houston for four. Then comes a nine game homestand against the White Sox, the AL defending champion Rays and Cleveland.

 

The Yankees await in New York for four games following that taxing homestand. The Red Sox shouldn’t be very hard to beat but Fenway is always an awkward task. The Twins head there from Yankee Stadium for three.

 

Yelich reintroduces himself August 27-29, this time at Target Field. After three months with projected opponent wins under 80, this stretch may allow Chicago to make some ground. However, the White Sox have a difficult month too with 17 straight games against the Twins, Yankees, A’s, Rays and Blue Jays.

 

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER - AVERAGE OPPONENT PROJECTED WINS: 80

 

Anthony Rizzo’s Cubs stop by to start the homestretch of the season. The Twins then hit the road for seven, three in Tampa and four in Cleveland. Minnesota has five off-days in September, the most of any month this season (including the All-Star break).

 

The entirety of the season series with the Blue Jays (84) is in September with three in Toronto and four at home. The Jays added George Springer and Marcus Semien to an already-strong core. The Twins will have to work for those wins at a critical point.

 

Perfectly, the Twins will have the benefit of playing a bottom-feeder for the final two series’ of the season. Detroit will make the final trip to Target Field for three before the Twins close the season in Kansas City.

 

For reference, here’s the month-by-month average opponent win projections for the White Sox:

 

APRIL - 77

MAY - 81

JUNE - 78

JULY - 81

AUGUST - 84

SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER - 75

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

— Recent Twins discussion in our forums

— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

 

Click here to view the article

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Nice article. Thanks. I know it is a cliché, but the most important game is the next one.