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Who gets traded this year?


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I was thinking that there was a really good chance this year that by the end of August there is going to be a whole new Twins roster to watch. So I went through the roster and listed each player as well as the probability that they would be traded or released by the end of August.

 

I did this because I do not believe the Twins will be all that good this year (see, well out of contention by July) and I believe that there a lot of players that won't be back next year, the Twins will be promoting players early and often when the current players do not or under perform. This is done with the caveat that any player can be traded at anytime. I look forward to the feedback I will get on my first post.

 

Jared Burton: 40% Traded

Kevin Corria: 75% Traded

Sam Deduno:60% Traded

Brian Duensing: 80% non-tendered then re-signed at the end of the year

Casey Fien: 50% Traded

Kyle Gibson: 0% Traded

Phil Hughes: 5% Traded

Ricky Nolasco: 0% Traded

Mike Pelfrey: 20% Traded

Glen Perkins: 0% Traded

Anthony Swarzak: 45% traded

Caleb Thielbar: 0% traded

 

Josmil Pinto: 0% traded

Kurt Suzuki: 0% traded

Jason Bartlett: Released by June

Chris Colabello: 0% traded 15% optioned to AAA

Brian Dozier: 0% Traded

Eduardo Escobar 0% Traded 0% Optioned to AAA

Pedro Floriman: 0% Traded 75% Optioned to AAA

Joe Mauer: 0% traded

Trevor Plouffe: 40% Traded

Oswaldo Arcia: 0% traded

Aaron Hicks: 0% Traded

Josh Willingham: 25% Traded 75% Released in August

Jason Kubel: 100% Released in August

7 Comments


Recommended Comments

blindeke

Posted

I like this post. It's depressing and strangely optimistic at the same time.

 

Your most positive prediction is for Kubel? Defend yourself, good man.

tobi0040

Posted

I put KC at about 100%. I was very confident early on, but it seems like pitchers are dropping left and right and the season is young.

 

I think Deduno is an asset, controllable. Can make spot starts and be in the pen. I think we keep him.

 

I don't see Plouffe being moved either. He is cheap and can play 3B, 1B, LF, and RF and pounds lefties.

 

I hope you are wrong about Josh and Kubel, I hope they both play well enough to warrant a prospect.

 

Good blog.

Highabove

Posted

Are the wagering windows open?

I would like to put $10 on Casey Fein

Richie the Rally Goat

Posted

It wouldn't surprise me to see Florimon or Dozier traded, depending on how Santana and Rosario do this season.

 

if Rosario comes back from suspension hitting and fielding well, Dozier is valuable and expendable.

 

If Escobar can hit like he did last fall or Santana show the ability to play SS well, Florimon could be a valuable defensive sub for a contender close to trade deadline or in August.

Cris E

Posted

I think if they move any bullpen guys they'll keep Swarzak (homegrown) and move Burton or Fien, probably Burton since he's got a better track record so he'd bring a better return.

 

If Willingham is toast it'll be obvious by May and he'll be sitting in MN on August 1. At that point there's little reason to play him or trade him until Sept, when his playing time will be more valuable in the hands of the kids. My guess is that is if he bombs we'll see more Kubel, and if he bombs too by the end of June we'll see the end of the Eddie Rosario 2B Experience and the dawn of Rosario: LF. When his 50 games wrap up they'll tune up his bat and have him go stand in LF, defense or no.

pierre75275

Posted

I like this post. It's depressing and strangely optimistic at the same time.

 

Your most positive prediction is for Kubel? Defend yourself' date=' good man.[/quote']

 

My prediction on Kubel is that he is released by the first of August. I believe that because at this point in his career he is on an extreme downward spiral. Now I hope I am wrong but given his contributions the last year and a half I don't see him sticking with the Twins all year.

pierre75275

Posted

It wouldn't surprise me to see Florimon or Dozier traded' date=' depending on how Santana and Rosario do this season.

 

if Rosario comes back from suspension hitting and fielding well, Dozier is valuable and expendable.

 

If Escobar can hit like he did last fall or Santana show the ability to play SS well, Florimon could be a valuable defensive sub for a contender close to trade deadline or in August.[/quote']

 

Good points, all...but I believe Bartlett will get released first before any of those other things happen

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