nicksaviking

Well stated, and much more concisely than I did.

How can you defend Gardy by listing his Manager of the Year near misses but previously state that managers have no impact on playoff performances? I also really don't think your two listed reasons for wanting Gardy gone are the most prelevant reasons. I think most people on this site acknowledge Gardy isn't the most culpable person when it comes to this team's failures. I think most people agree he had no chance at winning with what he was given. I think those of us who want a change, want a change because a new atmosphere seems manditory to right the ship. It's going to be hard to expect different results when so many of the variables remain the same. I'm actually torn on the Gardy issue. I want change; mostly I want this team to prove to me that they are willing to try new things and ideas from the sport that is not entirely encompassed within the Twins' world. But I also think the stubborn refusal to step outside the comfort zone comes from the front office and I really don't want them to make the manager the scape goat when the problems stem from deeper within the organization.

I too don't like what those quotes imply. I'm not sure what it has to do with the 40 man thread though.

There are plenty of GM's in win now mode who wouldn't consider it, but considering all of the other rebuilding teams, I wouldn't take the chance. As fans who follow the prospects, think about our reaction if two prospects of this caliber were left available for the Twins to pick up. We'd be begging for Ryan to snag them, roster spots be damned, considering 2014 looks to be another lost season.

Yeah, this is discouraging. Of note from Rosenthal, he states Gardy likely wanted assurances that payroll would be raised. If true, raised from what? What it is now or from the start of the season? Anyone think that if Ryan keeps the band together AND the Twins once again are terrible in 2014 his job will finally be on the line?

Well those of us that think a change is needed can for the time being take solice in the fact that no mention of an Anderson extension has been announced. Anderson is a good man and has been a good soldier but I don't think the front office can overlook the success of Cuellar's bullpen compared to the utter mess of Anderson's rotation over the past three or four years. Someone has to take the fall for the failure of the starters and if Ryan isn't going to take most of the blame and step down, Anderson likely will take the bullet.

Well neither are under contract currently, so I'd imagine they'd have a press conference to announce a new contract. Actually a press conference to confirm a non-signing seems less likely to me, though I'd expect the team to hold one regardless considering the stature of the men in question.

I don't blame Gardy for the wretched team he's been given, but I think a new atmosphere is needed in the clubhouse. That being said I agree with Seth, Gardy stays, Anderson goes. Since both aren't staying or both aren't going, that is the reason no in-season announcement was made. After all, didn't we all kind of think Anderson's lame duck status and Cuellar's promotion last year wasn't a coincedence? The bullpen was very good, the rotation was a mess, Cuellar's certainly going to be the pitching coach next year isn't he?

I kept thinking this too despite my belief that Ryan had taken the blame off of Gardy enough to back himself into a corner. But then I started thinking that a decision may not be announced or even leaked mid-season if only Gardy was being brought back and Anderson was getting the boot. If you announce Gardy is back, the next question will be, "What about Anderson?" If you don't want to announce your pitching coach won't be back, you probably would take steps to avoid that question including keeping wraps on a new contract for the manager.

I'd be pretty surprised if Hoffman didn't get in on the first ballot.

Nathan's career has not been short though. I've made this argument before, but I think Nathan will end up getting in after some Blylevenian wait and SABR debate. I think he'll get in due to his dominance during his peak years. Considering the innings pitched, closers generally don't produce a ton of WAR. I know, WAR sucks, blah blah, but considering how few variables there are for a closer, it actually matches up well for this position. A 2.0 WAR is a pretty good season for a closer. Joe Nathan just finished his 6th season with at least 2.8 WAR. Mariano Rivera is far and away the best closer ever, but as relievers, HOF'ers Rollie Fingers and Dennis Eckersley have a total of five 2.8 WAR years. Combined. Trevor Hoffman only had 3. Contemporary, and possible Hall stumbling block Billy Wagner had 3. Other contemporary top closers Jonathan Paplebon, Francisco Cordero, Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Valverde have six years with a 2.8 WAR. Combined. This of course this isn't an end all be all argument but I think it shows how much more dominant Nathan was than his contemporaries save Rivera. He'll likely still need to pitch well a couple more years to pad his stats, as HOF voters like traditional stats too, but he's in the top 10 in saves now, that's a Hall worthy argument in itself. I think 59 more saves to get to 400 would be hard to argue against and barring a complete nose dive in 2014, I think he's a shoe in to get there in 2015. 4th all time in saves is well within the realm of possibility which I think would put his odds very high.

That is twice the amount of the "huge" salary Ryan gave to Willingham. Edit: Mods, what are the consequences for accidentally double posting? I assume it is a severe penalty but I'm willing to suffer the consequences for my mistake.

That is twice the amount of the "huge" salary Ryan gave to Willingham.

Yes, this is the problem. If Pelfrey is brought back along with two pitchers significantly better than him, no one would take issue. The problem is that Ryan almost certainly will not do so meaning Mike Pelfrey would likely be one of the top free agents the Twins sign next year which obviously should be unacceptable to all fans.

No, clearly the Twins are rebuilding, but they do not clearly have a plan other than wait and pray for the prospects. If Gardy is playing Doumit against Ryan's wishes, Ryan simply could have traded or cut him. Morneau was traded for one and likely two more players +27 years old. If Morneau simply could only bring back another stop-gap OF taking up a roster spot, why was Morneau moved at all? Not a rebuild move. Butera brought back a young player and dumping Carroll, even for nothing, cleared some room on the roster, but I don't know how you can insist that a proper rebuild should include this many AAAA 27+ year olds. I'll agree that Ryan has taken a few strides this summer, but the gameplan for the rebuild seems to be made on the fly. Kevin Correia had no business being on the Twins radar last off-season. It should have been a one-year vet or a longer term solution, same with the Carroll and Willingham signings the previous year and Doumit's extension this past offseason. All this seems more like ad-libbing than an actual gameplan. In fact I think one can make a pretty strong argument that until this summer, Ryan had deluded himself into thinking the Twins didn't need a rebuild but instead needed to reload.

I don't like the showboating, it annoys me. I like the reaction by McCann less though. Sure Gomez was showing Maholm up, but what did McCann think he was doing? He was blocking the path of the base runner twenty feet from home plate and not allowing Gomez to touch it. That sure as hell isn't one of baseball's unwritten rules. McCann was trying to make a spectacle just as much as Gomez was. Besides, before the HR, McCann and Gomez looked like they were jawing. When McCann blows his **** afterwards, it just looks like a sore loser as Gomez got the better of that battle. What happened to being the bigger man? Do your talking with the scoreboard and the standings. Did McCann and the Braves really think Gomez' antics were going to make him look cool and admired by the rest of the baseball world? Let him look like a fool; arrogant HR trots will turn off 90% of the people every time.

No doubt Ellsbury is preferable to Presley but the Twins can comfortably cut bait with Presley anytime. Ellsbury on a 5-7 year $120-170 million deal will be hard to get rid of. As said previously, speed is always the first thing to go. When his stolen bases decline over the next couple of years I think we won't be very happy with the player we are left with considering the contract. His strikeouts are trending up and his 2011 HR numbers look like a mirage now. To be fair, I've never been a big fan, mostly because his game was so speed reliant and I never put that high of value on stolen bases. I'd overpay for him on a three year deal but he'll most likely get double those years.

Yeah, Gatewood will likely be among my top two picks if he improves from his Jr. year. Hoffman has helium, but I think Gatewood is likely the only guy who could challenge Rodon for the top pick. It's going to be hard to pass him up if he contiunes to get A-Rod/Tulowitzki comps.

And that's great, a system is clearly needed to fairly evaluate pitchers but they should not be matching their grading scale to the anticipated rotation slot. Instead they should be ranked, say, A B C D E. Plenty of pitchers with three above average pitches are command pitchers and not overpowering. These guys tend to be 4/5 arms. My arguement is that the more swing and miss you have, the higher you generally pitch in the rotation. Often strikeout ability goes hand in hand with a strong repertoir, but it's not necissarily a requirement. When you don't have three strong pitches and your overpowering stuff can't keep you at the top of the rotation, you usually end up in the bullpen or AAA, not the 4/5 slot.

Great analysis, though I wonder were Nathan, Liriano and Bonser included in the trade section? I only ask because I assumed Nathan's WAR would increase that figure quite a bit. Also, would Santana be include in the trade section? Or would he go in the Rule V? Great breakdown though and it does clearly show the Twins are amonst the worst teams in acquiring talent in free agency. They should not have more success in waivers than free agecny, that is simply rediculous.

One of my bigger pet peeves with these scouting wonks. Guys with good breaking balls, 96 mph heaters and most importantly a strong K% rarely are 4/5 pitchers. They usually end up at the top of the rotation, in the bullpen or flame out completely. They are almost always boom or bust. A 4/5 arm is generally the definitive mediocre pitcher. Low strikeouts, hopefully a competent innings eater who will simply give the team a chance to win. A 4/5 is Eades, Baxendale or Darnell. Seriously, I think these guys just hedge their bets and think, "Well he's either going to be a stud or in the bullpen so I'll split the difference and call him a #4," which they identify as the half way point between Ace and set up man.

And as I type this BA comes along and ranks Stuart Turner the #18 prospect in the Appy League. I must be missing something. .721 OPS' for big program, college bats in rookie league don't exactly turn my crank.

Turner? I didn't realize the Appy League was so starved for potential. Is all the love about his defense or am I missing something about his bat? Because defensive catchers with questionable bats are littered throughout every level of the minors.

All of whom stunk up the rookie leagues. Catchers are crapshoots in the draft, more so than other players it seems. Most of the time they are developed organically and unexpectedly like Pinto.

Yeah, I'd pass on Jackson as well but not because Pinto looks good. The success rate of HS catchers since Joe Mauer is virtually zero. Plus Jackson sounds iffy to stick at catcher. My top five would be Rodon, Kolek, Turner, Hoffman and Gatewood. I'm guessing I'll probably fall in love with Hoffman next year but the Cape Cod League rockstars lost a little luster for me after the Manaea disappointment last year. I've always wanted the best talent (or at least best pitcher) but if it's close, perhaps a college guy is the best bet next year considering how many power HS arms there are. You probably can't get two big time prep players with your top two picks anymore.