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Everything posted by nicksaviking
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Wolfson: Sano to get a look in OF
nicksaviking replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This is what I most agree with. I have no problem if he gets some OF flexibility, but I would worry that he won't be able to develop at 3B. If Plouffe is the 3B here next year, Sano will basically have only played the position for a half years worth of AA games in three years. The team would be getting awfully close to burning the 3B bridge before they ever gave him a chance. -
Not my cup of tea but I like the outside the box thinking. I still don't think your best pitchers end up throwing more innings this way.
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I do want to say that, and it is the pitchers that have put a sour taste in my mouth. I don't like the idea of rolling the dice again in the veteran free agent game since now the odds are really in the house's favor. The risk for Wieters looks higher than it was for Martin and McCann and the reward is lower. I will walk away from the table before I lose everything. I don't want to have to try another rebuild before this one even started. Six vets over 30 signed through at least 2017 is going to make that more likely if the season doesn't go as we hoped, and likely the only one of them tradable would be Perkins, IF he returns to form. I didn't want Shields or Lester, but I'd be a much happier camper if the Twins hadn't signed Nolasco, Hughes and Santana (and Suzuki) but instead had just signed Shields and Martin.
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I will be pretty disappointed if he's on the 40-man before the Rule V. I'd also like to see them broaden their search first. Assuming he's a righty, whoever gets that 4th or 5th OF spot is going to play a ton with Rosario, Arcia, and Kepler in the mix. This is an important spot; basically it's what the Twins wanted Hunter to do. I'm a little worried the Twins aren't thinking about this spot this way; missing out on Hunter and settling for Robinson in November seems rash. Ryan Raburn is still my vote but Chris Young also was fantastic against lefties last year. I'd be interested in him if he can't find full-time job.
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I'd be open to seeing any kind of stats that show otherwise, but statistically and visually, to me it looks like guys are peaking very, very early these days. Even look at last year's All-Star game, something that used to be loaded with veterans getting in based on their past reputations; it is now loaded with kids. Just look at last year's Twins, from the rotation to the lineup, it was almost exclusively carried by the younger guys. I don't disagree that there are still plenty of good contributors over 30, most are solid role players, but why on earth would anyone give a role player more than a two year deal? Guys on 1-2 year deals can be traded if the season goes in the toilet or a young player emerges. Guys on 1-2 year deals can be sent to the bench or DFA'd if they stink, we continue to see the Twins in awkward positions now because they have given too many guys 4-year deals. It hasn't worked, they need to stop digging themselves into a deeper hole. I'd be fine taking a chance on a couple long term deals to vets, but it's got to be quality over quantity. From my perspective, two guys on a 4-year/80M deal are better than four guys on a 4-year/40M deal.
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Dozier to the Yankees for a Catcher?
nicksaviking replied to jsteve96's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I like Dozier and think he can be a very good ballplayer, but he might actually be hurting the Twins in the way they're using him. Even during his excellent 1st half of the season, he only had a .328 OBP, the Twins have to do better than that for the top of the order but I'm not sure the Twins and Molitor would actually move him down the lineup. I'd be willing to trade him for a nice return, however Daniel Murphy, Howie Kendrick and Ben Zobrist are all free agents. It's hard to say if the Twins would be able to leverage Dozier's lower contract against those guys, or if the glut of 2B is too much to overcome. Also, if 35-year-old Zobrist is only able to get a two-year-deal, I'd be all for trading Dozier and overpaying for Zobrist. -
Do The Twins Need To Acquire An Ace?
nicksaviking replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I can't see a free agent ace coming here unless it's unexpected, such as the Cardinals turning around Chris Carpenter or when RA Dickey came out of nowhere for the Mets. I'd certainly be willing to trade for a young one though, say Matt Harvey. I'd even be OK chasing a big money free agent starter, just not until Santana, Hughes and Nolasco are no longer guaranteed roster spots.- 39 replies
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I don't want to say about the time PEDs became passe, but only two of the top 20 offensive players in WAR started the year over at an age over 30, and only three of the top 20 pitchers. Of all pitchers and batters in the top 20, only Curtis Granderson was over the age of 32. It sucks, but it's been headed this way for several years and I'm betting there are several GMs who are already planning to take advantage this.
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There are plenty of low risk free agents, they come on 1-2 year deals. Those are the only kinds of free agents I'm supportive of at this time as the team already has Mauer, Santana, Hughes and Nolasco guaranteed to take up four of only 25 available roster spots because of their long term contracts. The roster just can't be filled with untradable, unmovable veteran contracts or they'll end up like the Tigers, but with a lower quality group of veterans mucking up the works and fewer division titles to show for the moves.
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I agree if it's a legit minor league deal. I can't imagine any player would settle for that this early though. The team should be looking at Ryan Raburn who's option wasn't picked up. The guy hits lefties well and would be a great bench/platoon option considering the possible left handed heavy starting OF Arcia/Rosario/Hicks.
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Yeah but giving a four year deal to a CF wouldn't kill your roster if his defense or offense tanked, a team carries four or five anyway. You should only have two catchers, and there's nowhere to put this guy if the wheels fall off. When Mauer's deal is up, this would make more sense. Four years just isn't a good move for free agents over 30. Two years? Sure, I'll get on board.
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Catching Help (the boring edition)
nicksaviking replied to nicksaviking's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
It seems like every post season interview done by Ryan has included questions about catching. Every time Ryan makes it clear that catcher will be strongly assessed at the same time trying not to blame Suzuki. There's a great interview in the 2016 Offseason Handbook! -
Would You Hire Ron Gardenhire?
nicksaviking replied to Parker Hageman's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It's a tough spot for Gardy, he has a rep as an manager from a bygone era. As mentioned a guy can change, but at the same time, it's also not fair to chastise a GM take for not taking that leap of faith. I think Gardy really liked the "old school" rep he had with the Twins, plenty of people wear that like a badge of pride. However that's not what most people who do the hiring want to see these days. Gardy had ample opportunities to change his rep with the Twins. No one was stopping him from shifting or platooning. No one was forcing him to bunt. Perhaps he was better with numbers than everyone thought, but all I can remember is when he sarcastically called them "cybermetrics". I would really like to see Gardy get another shot, but he had to know long ago that a revolution was taking place in baseball. I like the guy a lot, but I have to say, Gardy probably should have considered the idea that the Twins might not be his retirement gig. He really should have done more to put down the league-wide idea that he was resistant to new ideas, especially if he really wasn't. -
No illusions here. There's one good well-rounded catcher in the league and the Giants aren't selling. The difference between the rest isn't that big and becomes nearly negligible once you get past the top five or so. Not everyone gets a stud catcher, it sucks. The other 29 teams will have to figure out other ways to win.
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Well for one thing, healthy seasons on the wrong side of 30 aren't a given, and four in a row are going to take some luck. My main point was that his defense could be replicated or even better, which seemed to be your sole argument for signing him instead of Pierzynski. My underlying point was that his offense wasn't so far above average that other free agent catchers will have no chance at matching it.
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Dioner Navarro is better defensively and Geovany Soto is comparable. Odds are that he'd be better than both offensively, but it's not even close to a sure thing, they've both had seasons as good or better than Wieters offensively. I sure don't think he's 4 years, 60 million and a draft pick better than them.
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Catching Help (the boring edition)
nicksaviking replied to nicksaviking's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Looking at the numbers, I think Chris Iannetta is becoming my choice. I'd go for Soto or Navarro also, but I never realized how good Iannetta has been at getting on base in his career. Last year he wasn't hitting, but he's historically had a great walk rate and a career OBP of .351. The Twins could really use someone at the bottom of the order that can work the count and get on base regularly, offensively I think that's their biggest issue right now. -
Wieters has been fine offensively, but not better than Pierzynski and his career offensively is pretty similar to Chris Iannetta. Defensively Dioner Navarro is in the same ballpark and Geovany Soto isn't much of a step back. No argument that Wieters is the best all around catcher available, but there's no way he's 60M and 4 years better than any of the other options. And it's really that 4+ years that most concerns me. And the pick.
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I'm OK with that. I'm not typically risk adverse, but the Twins just have too many terrible contracts at the moment. If they can't pawn them off on other teams, they really need to wait until they expire to start handing out more questionable long term deals to vets. I want a good catcher too, but it's not worth hamstringing the future over; offensive catchers are not a necessity.
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Catching Help (the boring edition)
nicksaviking replied to nicksaviking's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm sad to say, but Butera still has an arb year left and surely KC will not let such an important cog get away. -
When he left, I thought he'd have a hard time getting a job. He sill likely will though. It will likely be with a veteran team, and fair or not, likely a team that's not very strong into analytics. I'm not surprised Gardy didn't get the Nationals job as he and Dusty Baker seem very similar, though Baker has a stronger track record and has spent his entire career in the NL.
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Sometimes I think there just isn't an good answer to some problems. I think catcher in 2016 might be one of them. You might be stuck with free agents that have too many question marks to give a long term deal (Matt Weiters) or trade targets that will cost top prospects, and walk right when the team is ready to compete (Jon Lucory). The position itself is cause for concern as prior and pending injuries may force a shift to another position or crush their effectiveness altogether (Weiters, Lucroy and that other guy) Sometimes I think you just have to suck it up, say there is no real answer to this problem and make the best out of an ugly situation. We have recently seen some former part-time/journeymen catchers surprise us. Pittsburgh struck gold getting the previously forgotten Francisco Cervelli and Oakland found something when they got unknown Stephen Vogt. Of course the Twins had four months of success giving Kurt Suzuki another chance at full-time duty in 2014. I think there may be something to taking a chance on a part-time player and seeing if more regular play positively influences his game. Let's look at the cringe worthy free agent catching class of 2016: Geovany Soto - Not bad behind the plate and can throw out runners. Nothing sexy but would be cheap and even in part time duty has managed an OPS over .700 in two of the last three years. Perhaps there is still some chance that he could sniff his past glory and be a useful player? Dioner Navarro - Solid behind the plate and can throw out runners. Has had varying degrees of offensive success, including an OPS of .856 as recently as 2013 in a part-time role, though last year he was not very good. He has some pop and is a switch hitter. Michael McKenry - Um who? Well he's been the number two catcher in Colorado and Pittsburgh the past five years. Three of those five years he's had an OPS over .730 with a .910 (double take) OPS in just under 200 PA in 2014. Defensively he doesn't look too hot, throwing out only 3 of 33 batters last year. That seems like a high number of attempts against a back-up catcher, either the book is out on him, or Billy Hamilton was on base all the time against the Rockies last year. Chris Iannetta - Experienced Colorado and Los Angeles Angles backstop. 2015 was a down year for the veteran, but he had plenty of full-time (most of the time?) duty in prior years and only once had an OPS under .730 between 2008 and 2014. Defensively, he isn't the greatest, but he has thrown out 25% of his would-be base stealers in his career. Jared Saltalamacchia - Former 1st round pick and top prospect. A history of solid power for the position and his only truly dreadful year this decade was his first in Miami in 2014. That was unfortunate as the sour taste he left in their mouth probably helped convince the team to cut bait on him after only 33 PA in 2015. Upon signing with Arizona and playing part time, the switch hitter put up a .804 OPS which wasn't out of line with his years in Boston. Defensively, well, let's just say he at least owns his own equipment. Jordan Pacheco - Um who part II? Backup (often 3rd) catcher for Colorado and Arizona since 2011. However he once was a starter, way back in 2012. Offensively he hasn't been good.....except that one year he was a starter when he put up a .762 OPS (though still only a 93 OPS+) and 32 doubles in 475 PA. Interestingly, this guy could hit in the minors with a .799 OPS with very strong on-base skills. When he's had a full-time gig, he's put up really nice double and walk numbers. So why didn't he ever get a chance? Well it doesn't look like his defense is all that great. AJ Pierzynski - Not much to say here, we all know who he is. Old but offensively reliable for nearly two decades. Defensively he's not pretty and slightly less pretty aesthetically, but who wants a good looking catcher anyway? Other catching free agents include Alex Avila, Carlos Corporan, Jeff Mathis and Brayan Pena, but none of these guys have shown the ability to swing a bat in years, if ever, and as much as fans want a defensive catcher, when we actually have one who can't hit, fewer ballplayers become more of a punching bag. Personally, I think the Twins will avoid Wieters altogether but have strong dialogue about Lucroy. Under the hypothetical situation where the Twins get neither and are rebuffed from trading for another team's young catcher and only shop for their next backstop here at C-Mart, the discount catcher retailer, who makes you weep the least?
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Article: Twins With Winning Bid On Korean Slugger
nicksaviking replied to Willihammer's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm not trying to stir up any kind of contempt, but geez, the Twins would have so many more options of varying contract lengths and prices to upgrade the offense if they didn't have someone locked in at 1B at the moment. Not sure about this guy though. If we are going to assume the MLB is going to impact his numbers in some way, how high are those 160Ks in the KBO going to rise to? He led his league by a mile in that department last year when I sort the league by strikeouts. He's intriguing, but here's the number two slugger in the KBO last year: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=navarr001yam He's been in five different MLB teams; systems since 2006 and his previous career high in HR was 12 before slugging 31 in the KBO in 2014 and 48 in 2015. -
Yeah, what is up with the big-pocket Nationals low-balling the managerial candidates? They screwed around with Davy Johnson too. It looks like they either don't believe a manager has much influence over the players (in which case, why do they keep firing them?) or they have no problem cutting corners to save a buck. If this happened with the Twins, there would be rioters here. And I'd be one of them. Considering the lack of discipline clubs have handing out player contracts these days, I always thought the managers were underpaid and big deals like the Cubs gave Joe Madden would become the new norm. Looks like the Nationals are trying to set a new precedent by giving a small deal to an established, but desperate for a job veteran manager. Of course we don't know what the incentive bonuses are, so I might be making a mountain out of a pitching mound.

