Rosterman

Yeah, the Twins have a .500 starting rotation and no one that you truly expect to win 15+ games. Sad to say, that is not good. Of course, if the line-up scores 4 runs in each and every game, the W-L total will improve. The joy is that you at least expect that ALL these guys will go at least six innings, and maybe 7, depending on the status of the bullpen.

In the sixties my family had a business executive friend who worked for Cargill. Every spring he would take me to the Twins "Welcome Home" Luncheon. Back then, they were pretty much just bigshots from around town. And every year I would show up with my Topps cards from the previous year and go right down the entire front-of-the-house table at some point, the players getting a kick out of seeing their card (only one card back then) as well as a kid in a suit amidst all these executives. I quit the autographing for awhile and got back into it, with my most memorable experience being the first person to write to Pat Neshek getting an autographed card and, I'ma shamed to say, calling him an outfielder. Of course, Pat is one of the most accessible of players ever. But a bonus Neshek event was proposing to my wife on the scoreboard in a game started by Matt Garza which Pat ended up winning for the Twins. He has, of course, become our pitcher and I look forward to attending at least one game when he is visiting, shouting him down from the outfield pre-game. And I used to love the Metrodome, with the bullpen down the third baseline. I would choose those September afternoon games when no one would be in the park and I would have the whole row for myself before and during the game and could interact with the current and future bullpen throughout the game. Check out www.twinscards.com where we keep track of Twins players - majors and minors - and you can check out autographs from different collections (I'm "rosterman"). After the New Year, we should have the beginnings of the 2016 look at the Twins roster and minor league system.

Three seasons away. What will the Twins rotation look like, or who will the Twins trade to get a top-of-the-order pitcher because of depth. Dozier will be expendable. Park, by then, will be a washout or tradebait. The Twins will have made a decision on Arcia by then. Two years out Walker will probably be the major DH candidate if he doesn't totally strikeout at AAA. Names like Gordon and Vielma could be prospect tradebait. I see the Twins long-terming Buxton, Sano and Kepler. But Rosario? If he has a 2016 similar to 2015, he will be tradebait as the Twins look to rid themselves of Nolasco, move on from Milone, and decide if they want Kyle Gibson to remain a Twin for a contract or not. The weak link is catching. The guy has to work with major league pitchers, throw runners out, and be durable behind-the-plate. If he hits or doesn't hit may not matter, as you can always have ONE weak link in the line-up. Also, the Joe Mauer question going into 2018. They would have to make him a qualifying offer in 2019, give him a lifetime contract, or look to rade him before OR in his walk year, if there is any interest. Mauer's next two seasons will seal his fate...maybe so much so that NO ONE will touch his final year contract anyways.

You can't write Duffey in for certain. He can still be optioned out. Milone still has to earn the job. Being a lefty helps, but if he stinks...look for him to go back to the minors, unless all otehr lefties really flame out. Nolasco will be given a long look. The joy of spring training, msot pitchers throw a couple of innings a span...and the decision can be made after 3-4 looks if May should start stretching his arm or not. The bigger question is why Fien? Pressley and Graham can both go to the minors (Graham IS a stater candidate). But, again, why Casey? Meyer has to earn the job and DO the Twins want him as a starter?

Last year the offense was...in simple words...close to a disaster. High strikeouts amongst candidates, most players regressed in the stats that people see flashed on the scoreboard. The Twins did do better, it seemed, offensively in moving runners and scoring runners when it mattered. Three major factors: (1) How players prepare themselves in the off-season to keep their natural skill sets sharp. (2) How coaching works with the players in a correct and understandable way to eliminate some faults. (3) Line-up construction and how the team works together on the field. Right now, it is a team. There are no individual stars. Mauer came back to earth. Sano will have to be put in a fielding position which may change his game-to-game mindset. Park has to adapt to major league pitching. The Twins have a lot of solid players, but they still are strikeout prone (especially Arcia, Sano and Rosario -- the outfield -- and Dozier isn't far behind). It will be the same group as last year minus Torii Hunter and Aaron Hicks. The Twins need a Buxton at the top of the lineup, but like Hicks, will he be ready. The Twins would love to find a permanent place for Arcia, but where does that put Rosario if Sano is also in the outfield. Plouffe is almost too valuable, at this point, to rid yourself of with the questions surrounding Park, Sano and Arcia...but a hard decision has to be made to keep him longer term or make sure you get value for him out of spring training or, at the least, mid-season. Sano shined as a slugger. He has the potential to be more than that. Rosario did what was necessary. He's what you wanted, or expected, for a corner outfielder, but was far from spectacular (think Jacque Jones). The coaching staff and manager have their work cut out for them, considering that don't see Suzuki getting better and Murphy being adequate at the most. What will be the perfect Twins lineup and CAN it come out strong to start the season. I expect the rotation to be solid though far from spectacular, with short leashes on Nolasco and Milone. But I see the potential for ALL starters giving us at least six innings so educe the concern for an across the board strong bullpen. I think the division will be stronger overall, with Chicago making some strides, Cleveland getting their youngsters into full form, and Detroit making at least one more move to position themselves as contenders.

Or one will be a designated hitter.

And, of course, you can never have too much pitching. Names that may be pencilled in for the majors MAY end up injured (or not work out) -- Graham, Pressley for example. The Twins could suddenly have many outfielders break down (that hasn't happened, right?). When you look at the current names on the Rochester roster, and add in, say, 10 names from the 40-man, you see that team is pretty set now. I find seeing who gets jobs and invites anywhere exciting off-season news. Hey, Garrett Jones just signed with Japan! Good for him!

It will be interesting to see not only Sano, but how Buxton and Berrios fit into the rich longterm contract picture. At this point, the guys would have to dominate! But Sano could be the next Ortiz, in the least! If he wants to play to age 40, watch out. Then, again, what will Mauer's NEXT contract cost the Twins if Joe wants to play out his career with the Twins and to, say, age 40!

The Twins are pretty well set, really. They just have to weigh how bad they want Sano AND Arcia in the corners, and it would be nice to have a proven vet in the bullpen (you left out Logan Darnell as a potential starter or bullpen guy). The Twins will have backup depth at catcher, 1st base, middle infield, and outfield at AAA Rochester. They will have 1-2 arms to call upon for rotation spots. They will hopefully have too many guys (not on the 40-man) that they want at the major eaegue level sometime in 2016 for the bullpen. Again, the biggest issue is possibly outfield defense. Would you put Sano at third and Plouffe in the outfield (bring back Cuddyer)! Santana and/or Nunez as a bench infielder is okay. I imagine Vargas will start at Rochester, again. I hope Park gets some rotation time at first with Mauer DHing.

Hicks was soon to be ano utfielder without a job. He was the underdog coming into sprint training. Yes, he could've opened the year in centerfield. Yes, he could be a corner outfielder. Are the Twins better taking a flyer on Buxton and Arcia, to name two, in those positions? I think yes. Hicks had limited production. He showed enough spark that his trade value had increased. But he is soon to be arbitration eligible. He either plays regularly in 2016 and has a breakout year, or is a continued flop and the you have to ask yourself about going to arbitration with a fourth outfielder who was a number one prospect. Hopefully he pulls it all together. But in the organizational depth chart, he was tradable. Considering the playrs on the current Twins roster than other teams want and the Twins are willing to trade, Ryan did goo. And hopefully centerfield won't be a weakness in 2016 with Buxton, Benson, Santana and Rosario all in the mix. Buxton will takeover, or be given every opportunity to takeover, sometime next year. He should be a keeper!

Yeah, a team could take a flyer on Rodriguez stashing him and hoping he becomes Santanaish. But doubtful. Wimmers and Bard would most likely not stick for the season. Better served having another minor league year under their belt (and then the Twins can give them consideration). Same with Wheeler. Any team that wanted him could have had him when the Twins removed him from the 40-man, and saved the fee. Would Jones get picked? The Twins think not. Are there a dozen players out there more seserving? That is the question.

It is a sad choice. Both pitchers need to pitch if either is with the Twins to hopefully increase trade value, which menas someone will sit, be it Milone and May in the bullpen of Duffey in the minors. That's the long (and short) of it. Thinking them longterm members of the team...nah! At this point, moving Noalsco to simply allow another longer term alternative to pitch for the team (be it May, Milone, Duffey or Berrios) would be my choice over giving any innings to Noalsco. But it comes at a price. You either have to outright pay a team to take him off your hands, and the hopes being that you might get one or two back of the roster prospects at best. If you must absorb a corresponding contract, maybe something like Papelbon, where you have a need on the current roster. But Shields, no. You are just replacing Noalsco. Not getting rid of Noalsco.

Yeah, can afford to overspend on at least one arm. And a reliever can come and go, again depending on the price and the state of your team. Yes, the Twins DO have prospects up the wazoo, so to speak, probably better than any arm in their current bullpen. They have to groom a future closer, and in the salary structures, probably another shortly after that. Trevor May could find a superstar role as a reliever if he so chooses. Glen Perkins, for all his ups and few downs, is not the end game in gold. He best future role IS probably as a setup man as he ages...although (salary offerings) will keep him in the closer role, or signing with another team for one of those 3-year $30 million contracts in the future...as a setup guy...NOT with the Twins, sadly, though. So the Twins should overspend on a longterm aging lefty (who better be close to lights out). Can they play the right-handed field, or do they need another guy and forget about Tonkin/Pressly/Graham and whomever for now and forever. Press and Graham can still go back to the minors, so that is a blessing. But I'm not sure the answer to a contending team IS Darnell, O'Rourke or even Rogers/Dean in the bullpen. Maybe one of those guys can fill a space, but not two.

"gets savvy vets." That's a good one. Possibly cheap (although we sometimes overpay a bit) and available is a better description. Of course, the past few seasons the Twins have had to lobby for players that would want to play here. At least now the time might look a little more enticing and we might actually sign a savvy vet.

The Twins have many questions. I can argue about moving Sano to the outfield if he may be the third baseman of the future. I think it is just postering to keep value for Plouffe. I would rather move Plouffe to the outfield and then out-of-town (if his salary becomes to overbearing). Yes, Park is a suspect rookie, as is Buxton, and possibly still Sano. Centerfield is an issue. Can Rosario play there if push comes to shove. Moreso than where Rosario and Sano play, where can we put Arcia. I think we do need to give him one BIG chance. He is a player to be reckoned with. The joy is that we do have Kepler in the wings, maybe Walker. Benson is around (as well as Wilkerson and Palka) for emergency depth. The outfield possibilities are high...notice I said possibilities. It could also be weaker than alst year's bullpen if the soph slumps hits some people. We need something in the bullpen. It can survive patchwork, thank you. But I would like to see something, or keep my fingers crossed that the young promising guys from last year's prospect list become young promising guys again. There is some space on the 40-man. You always have some. Hicks, a couple of pitchers, there are at least three working spots and another couple that could open come spring training end, for sure. I'm waiting to see how the Twins market the team for 2016, to get more season tickets sold (remember, Hunter helped a lot last year). People may think the second place finish was spectacular and the last day playoff hunt wonderful, but the reality is that THERE ARE STILL many questions. Some could be solved by simply eating salary and moving on, others by not offering spots to replacement value guys. And then we have Joe Mauer!

Boy, the bullpen list of names is pretty...lame. Throw in May and or Milone/Noalsco from the rotation. You still have some questionables that no one else probably deems a major league MUST (Darnell, O'Rourke) ... a couple of Rule 5 pickups that can still go up and down and one of which is an emergency starter candidate (wait, we have May) -- Graham/Pressly. You have Tonkin because..... You have Meyer being too valuable to cut loose. You kept Dean. You kept Rogers because he gives you left-handed starting depth or COULD be a long-arm out of the bullpen next season. You have a couple of guys coming off surgery that you didn't want to gamble losing, although don't see them jumping to the Big Leagues fulltime in 2016 (like at least a half-dozen other arms. possibly ahead of them in the system, could also do). And then you have Fien, who I fear could be Burton 2.0. Fien had good trade value in 2015, but didn't go anywhere. He was solid, but also unspectuacular at times, in 2015 -- and no one was calling his name in 2015. For all intent and purpose, Jepsen replaced him in the bullpen forthe next season. We are still waiting to see if we lose anyone of importance in the Rule 5 (Jones) and then we can really cry about a couple of Twins decisions. But it will be interesting to see if the Twins do sign some arms for the bullpen in 2015 and who goes elsewhere. I don't expect Boyer to be back just to pitch at Rochester, but have to see what demand there is for his services. I mean, Aaron Thompson came back!

So that is what happened to Mauer, too!

I think the point of argument is NOT that Nunez and Fien aren't worth the arbitration salary. It is more that the Twins MIGHT be able to do more with two vacant roster spots, rather than having to go the arbitration route with these two guys, and for the money involved, they could probably find suitable replacements from the field of free agents or (jn the end) a home for a prospect. Too late to add Jones to the bullpen list? If we lose Jones in the Rule 5 and he stays with a team, I'm going to feel minutely pissed that we kept Fien and his salary. Yes, noth Nunez and Fien CAN be worth keeping, but they are on the edge of the roster and not needed.

Overall, not an expense arbitration year. You can afford to offer Nunez, Fien arbitration to offer you current depth. I don't LOVE the idea of Fien, still thing he will be Jared Burton 2.0, and I didn't hear of anyone knocking on the door last summer to obtain him for a stretch run. Nunez is kept in the mix in case you make Santana an outfielder again. Milone would be able to command a comparable salary elsewhere and is a lefty, so he's a keeper. Plouffe isn't ready to depart, but the looming arbitration salary of the upside of $10_ in 2017 is scary. You either trade him NOW or set yourself up to offer him $30+ million to stay with the Twins. Jepsen was a surprise and did more than what anyone expected in 2015. He's a keeper. Escobar, for the second year, showed he should have respect as the shortstop in a system where there isn't a better shortstop...today. Talk about inexpensive!?! The flipside is that as a regular he would become expensive and not able to retain as a utility gy, if that is the role the Twins want him to slip into in the future.

That's always the good question when adding A-ballers to the 40-man. If a team did decide to grab the player, will that delay their time in reaching the majors and using the options. The other reason for selecting A-ballers is the possibility of losing them in the minor league portion of the draft if they are not ready/already on the AA or above rosters. You can always risk removing hem from the 40-man during the season, especially at the level they are playing. Another team would have to see the worth (and a have a palce) to add them to the 40-man, before sending them out themselves, if they choose to play that game. You realize how controlling major league teams can be of prospects. You canbe dropped or advanced at a moments notice. You can flip around to other teams. You can lose your prospect hold in the pecking order one year and become a journeyman minor league guy always hoping to make it back to the limelight. You get a salary bump. You do open yourself up to being more interested to other teams by being a 40-man guy. But your fate is still in your hands.

Sometimes we might value the minor league additions too much. The biggest hurdle now and need for adding guys is the bonus money paid and the development of the prospect and the chance that you might lose them as early as the High-A level if a team feels the need to keep such a player on their roster before sending them to the minors the next year. Most players with major league capabilities are added to the 40-man, probably, during the season. Again, service time plays into the mix, but really shouldn't as service time can be negated (see Hicks and Arcia) by short-seasoning the guys at the major league level if they aren't producing. From ALL the names mentioned above, there was so much promise in many (Joe Benson, for example) that didn't pan out anywheres and interesting to see how manyare still in organized ball, and some struggling in the indy leagues (just saw Reme Tosoni this summer and talked and he's having a grand old time in indy ball), And Scott Diamond was a Rule 5 signee and the Twins ending up trading Billy Bullock to keep him and send him to the minors.

Storen would be interesting. He could jsut be a short-term rental with hopes that the flamethrowers do develop in 2016. The starting rotation is near elite. They just had a miserable 2015, yet the rotation ERA dipped nearly a run a game and the starters, as a whole, did stay in the game longer. There is a nice mix of arms there, that could only get better if May/Meyer come thru as starters and Berrios gets the call (this will be his sprng training, but watch the Twins play careful, for some reason, because they don't need to 40-man him). We can complain about Milone and Nolasco, but they can get the job done. Santana can be near elite. It will be Hughes year in 2016. Back to the bullpen. How much do you spend? In Nathan's alst year, I think the bullpen cost was like $24 million, substantially more than the rotation at the time. Do we get specialists (groundball, strikeout). Do we stay with ahrdthrowers? Is there a palce for a Boyer (no!). So, if choosing between O'Rourke and Darnell/Dean, who would you choose (assuming Rogers will be the long man from the elft side).

Wimmers, Jones....I don't really see them sticking thru spring training, which would prove to be a rude awakening for them about how good major league batting really is. But we will see. Still remember the Twins losing Dickey in the Rule 5!

Looking at this again, would Acheter and Pinto make the Twins in 2016? Pinto is too far behind in the DH mix, especially if the Twins DO sign Park. Achter is bullpen filler. Is he better or worse than anyone they have (i.e. Dean, maybe). Again, he is probably Anthony Slama 2.0. The bigger question is the 7 who were added. Will they be contributing to the Twins in 2016? We think Rogers could be in the bullpen at the least. But not sure where Dean fits in, except that the Twins need left-handed depth in the roatation, especially if Darnell ends up being cut for a free agent addition. No one will argue with Walker. He is still a season away from even a callup (at the least, he might get a September cup-of-coffee like Kepler did). But IS worth a spot. Landa, Rosario, Chargolis, Melotakis all could be stashed on a team's roster for 90 days and the DL for the rest, possibly, if one wanted to take that gamble. Will the Twins lose Jones? They are taking a gamble that teams will flinch at his Chattanooga numbers this season. And combined with Bard (also a possibility of loss), Burdi, Cederoth, Jay, Reed and others, the Twins do have depth...names that they do have to address in 2017 and especially 2018...so hopefully they don;t sign any reliever to a longterm contract this season. I don't see Michael making the team as a reserve. I think most teams will wait for him to become a minor league free agent (or a throw-in in a deal). Being a General Manager is a tough job. The Twins ahd to weigh the short-term sparks from some injured guys against the fact of losing them in the organization. They have to look at a 25-man roster that is rpetty well set with a few loose cannons if they do decide to sign a free agent (relief pitcher), plus still having the ability to trade a piece or two (a starter, a third baseman come to mind). That they jettisoned Pinto and Achter this early MIGHT mean that they do have sights on a Rule 5 guy and DO EXPECT to sign Park, so two spots needed to open up anyways. Watchm expect Pinto and Achter to possibly be designated for assignment by the teams that picked them as the off-season progresses. That's the joy of grabbing someone off the waiver wire right now, you can play those games.

Someone said T.R. could be searching the waiver wire ... but you have to add that guy to your own 40-man. At some point, the Phillies or San Diego may feel that their additions from the Twins to the 40-man aren't worth it, and both will also go thru waivers. Of course, they have the option of keeping them in the organization. I find the addition of Dean and the keeping of Darnell interesting. Yes, both are lefthanders, of which the Twins have few major league ready depth, but still...both? Achter put up good numbers in the minors, but so did a guy named Anthony Slama, as well as Eddie Morlan in the past. Be interesting to see who the Twins sign (beyond Paulino) as a minor league catching free agent. We can argue about the need to add Rosario and Melotakis and Landa. I would doubt that the Twins would lose all three in the Rule 5, if even one of them. Sure, a couple have the appearance of starting the season on the DL, but still..... It's too bad that players like Pinto and Achter join other names like Duensing and Boyer (and maybe Arcia) as having little or no trade value to the Twins, but enough of an interest that they may get picked up by another team (or do get picked up). But maybe the Twins can steal a prospect (or two) from some other minor elague system. Good for Tonkin making the cut, I guess. But I would've been more inclined to go without a guy who needs to be added to the major league roster than one that still has options and still has potential.