Lee-The-Twins-Fan

I wholly disagree... Yes, we need pitching. But not "desperately". I would rather have Dozier for 2017 than trade him for one prospect SP, or one prospect SP and a 'lottery ticket' or two. You do that (consistently) and the Twins will never be successful. The Twins need two near MLB-ready starting pitchers (such as De Leon and Stewart) plus one or two 'lottery tickets' for Dozier. The Twins are not in a desperate situation here. (Neither are the Dodgers btw.) The Twins have some very good prospects on the way up – including Romero and Gonsalves, plus some talent, like Berrios. They will have the arms to contend in 2019 (or sooner). Plus, there will be better SP free agents next offseason. Those who argue 'we must trade Dozier for a prospect or two,' should remember we still have to play 2017 and 18 – with or without him. To trade Dozier for SP prospects who won't be ready in 2017 or 2018 is pure foolishness, IMHO. We need 2 SP we can plug into the rotation in 2017, if we are to compete. If we don't get that, I'd rather have Dozier's bat in the lineup and his leadership in the clubhouse.

JDL, Stewart and one or two lottery ticket players.

I don't know about you, but I don't think the Twins will be panicking if they don't get the Dodgers' pitchers. I think the Dodgers might be panicking about not getting a star 2B...

Regarding the SS platoon void: Engelb Vielma (on the 40-man) also is a switch-hitter on the 40-man roster, who also hits better vs. lefties. But help may be on the way. Nick Gordon, who was in A-ball, expected to be at AA this season, hit .315/.356/.431/.787 vs. right-handers as a lefty batter in 2016. Danny Santana hit .265/.301/.357/.658 as a left-handed hitter vs. right-handed pitchers in 2016. IF he was a defensive specialist that might be tolerable, but he's not. I don't see him making the team heading north. Benji Gonzales, whom the Twins signed as a minor league free agent (SS) and who is invited to spring training, was in AA ball last year, and hit .289/.348/.446/.795 as a left-handed hitter vs. righties. Hitting the other way, he did not quite as well: .265/.340/.367/.708. He just celebrated his 26th birthday (Jan. 15). Happy Birthday! The only other SS on the Twins' non-roster list for spring training is Leonardo Reginatto, who bats right-handed, and did worse against righties. (All these stats are from Baseball-Reference.com) It'll take spring training to determine if a left-handed hitting SS is worthy of making the team in a possible platoon situation (Gonzalez or Gordon, or someone else). But the Twins might also look for a short-term solution until Gordon or Gonzalez is ready.

I'd hardly call Tyler Duffey an 'unknown'. But i like the rest of your piece – and I was hoping the Twins would get Haley in the draft.

I like the optimism in the story, and I tend to agree with it. I see Buxton, Sano, Polanco and Dozier having very good years, with regular playing time. I think Buxton will be moved to the leadoff spot, which will help. I agree with Nick that we need some pitching help – but i disagree with the way he wants us to get it. Yes, we could trade Brian Dozier for a prospect starter, but we need more than that for him. At least two near-ready starters and one or two other prospects. We cannot undersell Dozier. If we don't get what we want for him, we should keep him – he's very valuable on the team both on and off the field. Let's face it: If the Dodgers really wanted to give up a couple of their top pitching prospects for Dozier, the deal would have been done. And I don't think the Twins will trade Ervin Santana; they need strong leadership in the starting 5. If Santana repeats his capable 2016 season (but with more wins) and guys like Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Jose Berrios and others turn their seasons around, the Twins could have a winning team. Falvey and Levine know what they are doing. They're taking some flyers on possible starting pitchers (Justin Haley, Nick Tepesch and Ryan Vogelsong, among others), and there are some starting pitchers in the minor leagues that the Twins could call upon (Stephen Gonsalves for one). The bottom line is this team will not be a 103-loss team in 2017. Winning 80 games would be a step in the right direction, but at least one bad Twins team has done far better the following year; in 1991, they went from worst to first. A lot can happen over the course of a 162-game season, and I look forward to a much brighter 2017 than 2016.

There's no way I'd trade Gonsalves - not now, not after the year he just had. I think the reason Some would be willing to trade De Leon or Berrios is because neither has truly proven themselves in the major leagues. If we trade Dozier for an established MLB pitcher, that's one thing. But to trade him for De Leon alone – (hey that rhymes) who has not yet proven his value in the bigs is a mistake. We need to mitigate risk here, and get more than one decent prospect for Dozier. But it doesn't sound like the Dodgers are willing to 'play ball'. So we move on.

I think you're pretty much right on – except for two things. I think Vielma will edge Granite for the fourth bench spot; I think they will need a better backup infielder, rather than a fifth outfielder. And I would not be surprised to see May in the bullpen, and Haley as the starter. To me this is almost a coin-toss, but May has struggled as a starter in the past. While his back issues may be linked to being a relief pitcher, I really don't see that as an issue. It'll depend a lot on how the two do in spring training...

So they DID reach an agreement after all. That's actually pretty low for what I expected. He's been a pretty good relief pitcher.

Wow, you were pretty close, really. Right on with Santiago, $8 million; a little low on Gibson and Kintzler. Kintzler's was actually close to what you said his asking price would be. Obviously Falvey and Levine value him higher than TD or MLBTR. Ryan's will come in today too... Just my thought.

Aaron and Brock: What's a reasonable return? I think Falvey and Co. are looking for two near-MLB-ready starting pitchers plus one or two prospects, and rightfully so. That, in my mind is what Dozier is worth. De Leon is one. Stewart would be another. Alvarez is a nice prospect, but too far from the majors. I think Falvey and Co. have stuck to their guns. If they don't get a package with two near-ready MLB starters, they'll walk away. And they should. Getting just De Leon and a couple of C-prospects doesn't do it for me. Dozier is worth more than that. You would be trading a very good commodity for – in my mind – a minimal return. If that's the case, the Twins would be much better off keeping Dozier until they get a better offer.

The twins won't go to an arbitration hearing on any of them. When was the last time the Twins went to an arb hearing? Of course, now the Twins are under new management... but still, they'll reach agreements. Seth, I think your numbers are pretty accurate. I find the differences between MLB Trade Rumors and the Twin Daily projections interesting. I tend to think the Twins Daily numbers are closer to the mark in each case.

Probably just more conjecture on someone's part.

Dave W: So any clues to the pieces?

I'm not sure I agree or disagree with this. My first reaction is no. But then I read the last phrase again. I guess it depends upon what you consider to be "solid pieces". No one denies the Twins need solid starting pitching. No one denies the Dodgers need a 2B. Few deny that the Dodgers have starting pitching in abundance (as do other teams, including possibly Atlanta). Thus a trade may be likely. But just because the Dodgers offer X, Y and Z for Dozier does not mean the Twins will accept it. And if the Twins offer Dozier for W, X, Y and Z, it doesn't mean the Dodgers will accept it. So what are you looking for in a trade for Dozier? He's an established, very good 2B, arguably better than any 2B free agent this year. He played a good defense (not elite, but good) but hit with significant power this year, including 42 home runs. To me, that's worth two near MLB-ready starting pitchers, and, depending on their quality, one or two other throw-ins. If it's a trade with the Dodgers, then it's De Leon, Stewart and two prospects. If the Dodgers and Twins have already agreed to De Leon and Alvarez (as Dave W has reported), I still need another MLB-ready arm (Alvarez is too far away from the Majors). De Leon, Alvarez and Stewart would do it for me. But I would not trade him for De Leon, and two A-ball players – no matter how solid they are. We need a better return. So again, it depends on your definition of "solid pieces."

I agree with most of this. I wouldn't mind trading Santiago for more pitching, but I'd hang onto Ervin Santana (Now Danny Santana I would make available...) Barring other signings, my 2017 rotation would be Santana, De Leon, Gibson, Berrios and Stewart or May. Waiting in the wings would be Justin Haley (in the bullpen, but ready for spot-starts), May (or Stewart), Gonsalves and Duffey. I think Gonsalves will be a great pitcher, but I suspect he will need another year – I hope I'm wrong about the latter!!

Respectfully, I think we're going to have to agree to disagree. Adding one MLB-ready starter (De Leon) plus a position-player prospect is not enough for me. Yes, Gonsalves, Romero, Kohl Stewart, Jay and other prospects in the Twins system are going to help the rotation. I'm actually high on them, But we need a viable bridge to get to them. I don't see quality starters coming via free agency. That leaves a trade. Dozier is the most valuable trade chip we have. He's worth two starting pitchers and one or two prospects. If the Twins don't get that, I'm sorry, i'd rather keep Dozier. The Dodgers need Dozier. The Twins need starting pitchers, which the Dodgers (and possibly other teams) have. It's a good match with LA. I just don't know if they can reach an agreement.

No, Dozier is not the ONLY way the Twins can get quality starting pitching – but I believe his trade is the BEST way. I don't disagree that Calhoun is a good prospect – but it's kind of like going into the grocery store to get milk and walking out with a pound of bananas and no milk. The Twins need starting pitching, preferably 2 MLB-ready starting pitchers. The rotation is a mess. Adding a position player beyond that is fine; adding one as one of two prospects is not fine. I'm not willing (and I bet the top Twins' brass agrees) to wait 1-3 years to get a quality rotation. The new brass wasn't brought in to help the Twins win starting in 2020. They need the quality starting pitching NOW. That will help not only now, but in the near future. The bottom line: If the Twins go into spring training without Dozier, they should have two starting pitchers (from wherever they traded Dozier to) to plug into the rotation list. I'm not saying they have to have two in the 5-man rotation - but every team needs depth at starting pitching, The Twins don't have it. If other teams don't pony up and give two near-MLB-ready starters plus one or two prospects for Dozier then I'd rather have Dozier back. It's that simple.

I respectfully, and seriously disagree. Yes Calhoun is a good prospect. But the Twins need PITCHING. Specifically starting pitching. Adding Calhoun as a third piece would be fine (not that the Dodgers would do that). They need two near-MLB-ready starting pitchers (at least) for Dozier. This is the Twins' one shot at improving their rotation in 2017 and beyond. De Leon, Stewart and Alvarez, or Calhoun would do it for me. Personally, I don't think this deal is made this offseason. The longer we wait, the more the deal is stalled. Quite frankly, if the Dodgers won't trade De Leon, Stewart and one or two other prospects for Dozier, I'd walk away. If Dave W is right, and it's De Leon and Alvarez, that's fine, but I'd want another MLB-ready starting pitcher. If we get two MLB-ready pitchers, plus, for Dozier, the Twins have enough other talent on this club to at least win 81 games this season, and with Golsalves coming up probably in 2018, have a shot at becoming a contender. Trades HAVE TO BE ABOUT improving both teams, not just one. Yes, the Twins are asking a lot for Dozier. But to the Dodgers he should be well worth it.

Sorry – I guess I got off topic.

I don't believe the Twins will trade Ervin Santana. They need him to pitch every fifth game to at least give them a chance to win fairly consistently. Even if Dozier is kept, the Twins will be better in 2017. Our youngsters (Buxton, Sano, Kepler, Polanco and others) will be better. I believe the management is addressing the pitching problem, but they have to wait until the know whether the Dodgers will offer the pieces they want. Sure the Twins would like to trade Dozier for MLB-ready pitching, and it would make the team better, but they should never undersell him. If the Dodgers are only offering De Leon, then the Twins should walk away. They need two MLB-ready (or near-ready) pitchers plus one or two prospects for Dozier. That's what he's worth. De Leon, Stewart, Alvarez and one other would be my price. But I'm not the Twins' brass.

I don't know if this counts as "In the media" but here is a Dodger site suggesting the team could afford to give up De Leon and Stewart (at least) for Dozier. http://dodgerblue.com/would-brian-dozier-twins-trade-prove-too-costly-dodgers-prospects/2016/12/29/

Dozier is not "elite"? On several rankings, he is a top 3 second baseman. He's a right-handed batter – with significant power (42 homeruns in one season is nothing to sneeze at) and a very good defender. What does it take to be elite?

Well, I wouldn't. Trout may be the best, but you're trading one established star, one up-and-coming star and two good players for Trout. I'd rather have the four players, thank you.