Tom Froemming

Take a look at how the 2019 Twins ranked in comparison to the rest of the league: If you’re not familiar with those stats, here are the FanGraphs Library entries: FIP, xFIP, SIERA, DRS, UZR, DEF. The Twins clearly need to add arms, especially considering their expected departures, but it’s not entirely fair to point to pitching as a weakness of the 2019 Twins. Metrics that attempt to isolate pitching independent of defense actually look highly upon the ‘19 staff. The Twins had the worst ranking in Defensive Runs Above Average among all the postseason teams this season. Just one team that ranked lower in that metric had a record above .500. The Twins also had the eighth-largest gap between their team ERA and FIP. Again, none of the teams with a larger gap qualified for the postseason, and just one had a winning record. That’s not keeping good company. While the Twins ranked ninth in ERA (4.18), they were 14th in total runs allowed per game (4.65). They gave up the fifth-most unearned runs in the league, 74. League average was 59 unearned runs, but Oakland led the league with just 34 unearned runs. Under normal circumstances, I’d happily sacrifice some defense to improve offensive firepower. Afterall, there’s a much stronger correlation between run scoring and overall team success than there is with fielding alone. But did the 2019 Twins take things too far? If the Twins fail to take steps forward in the field next season, their return on any pitching investments will be somewhat diminished.

We’ll do a lot of looking ahead to this Twins-Yankees ALDS here at Twins Daily over the coming days, but I thought it was also worthwhile to take a quick look back at how these teams have played against each other so far in 2019. There’s no denying the Yankees dominance over the Twins in postseason play, but it’s also completely irrelevant. Rocco Baldelli’s response to whether he was aware of the recent postseason history between the Twins and Yankees was the exact message the entire organization and its fans needed to hear. https://twitter.com/dohyoungpark/status/1177986288194113537 So how about 2019? The Twins went 2-4 against the Yankees this season, though New York only held the advantage in run differential by five (43-38). Here’s how things went at Yankee Stadium, with links to the Twins Daily game recap for each contest: May 3 | NYY 6, MIN 3 May 4 | MIN 7, NYY 3 May 5 | NYY 4, MIN 1 (8 innings) The Bomba Squad was uncharacteristically quiet in that series, and a few untimely errors crippled the pitching staff. There were three unearned runs allowed the first game and one more in the finale. The teams met again nearly two months later in Minneapolis. July 22 | MIN 8, NYY 6 July 23 | NYY 14, MIN 12 (10 innings) July 24 | NYY 10, MIN 7 The Twins evened up the season series at two games a piece, then had New York against the ropes in the second game at Target Field. The Twins led 8-2 through the first four innings, but suffered a crushing extra-inning loss in what was among the most thrilling games of the season. https://twitter.com/TFTwins/status/1178505743558959104 Over the entire season series, the Twins combined to hit a solid .254/.343/.512 (.855 OPS), but the Yankees had a much more impressive .327/.402/.588 line (.989 OPS). Poor starting pitching was a common theme throughout for both teams. Here’s a look at the numbers: NYY SPs: 8.54 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 6.5 K/9, 4.4 BB/9, 1.045 OPS against in 26 1/3 innings. MIN SPs: 7.45 ERA, 1.97 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 5.6 BB/9, 1.047 OPS against in 29 innings. Ick. The biggest separator was bullpen performance. Twins relievers combined for a 5.87 ERA in 23 frames while the Yankees pen posted a 3.38 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. Blake Parker managed to give up five runs while recording just five outs against the Yankees, so I guess take that with a grain of salt. Parker’s dreadful appearance in that July 23 madhouse of a game was his last in a Twins uniform. Considering the changes both these teams have gone through since late July, even this season’s previous matchups might not matter. That alone illustrates how completely ridiculous it is to drag any prior years into the conversation.

Box Score Gibson: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K, 48.1% strikes (25 of 52 pitches) Bullpen: 7.1 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 9 K Home Runs: Cruz 2 (39), Sano (31), Garver (31) Multi-Hit Games: Cruz (2-for-4, 2 HR), Sano (2-for-3, 2B, HR, BB), Garver (2-for-3, HR, 2 BB), Rosario (2-for-4) Top 3 WPA: Cruz .313, Sano .245, Garver .183 Bottom 3 WPA: Gibson -.237, Gonzalez -.080, Schoop -.080 The Royals jumped out to a 3-0 lead early in this game (more on that in a moment) but the Twins bomba’d their way back in it. Nelson Cruz hit a three-run shot to the opposite field in the third inning to tie the game. https://twitter.com/MLB/status/1174850108468412416 Later that frame, Miguel Sano hit a majestic blast into the upper deck. The Royals fought back, but the bombas kept being blasted. Mitch Garver crushed one to center in the fifth inning that tied the game at 5-5. Cruz added a two-run homer in the seventh inning. The lineup, which was still missing Max Kepler and C.J. Cron, combined for eight runs on 10 hits and five walks. It was nice to see them making some serious noise at Target Field again. What Even is Kyle Gibson Right Now? From the 2017 All-Star break through the first half of this season, a stretch of 368 innings, Kyle Gibson pitched to a 3.77 ERA. In his 62 innings since, Gibson has limped to a 6.10 ERA. What awful timing. This 2019 club is by far the best Gibson’s ever been a part of. The soon-to-be 32-year-old is also slated to become a free agent for the first time this winter. His weight is down due to his ulcerative colitis, and it’s showing on the mound. Gibson was the Twins starter tonight, but recorded just five outs and was removed from the game after surrendering three runs on three hits and four walks. He threw 52 pitches, just 25 of them for strikes. And it could have been worse. Luis Arraez threw a runner out at home plate. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1174838161995948032 Gibson has been reduced to a complete question mark in his current condition. Could he be helpful as simply an opener? A long reliever? I don’t know, but it appears unlikely he’ll be dependable in a traditional starting pitcher’s role. For more on Gibson’s legacy as Twin, check out this piece Nick wrote earlier tonight. Thor(pe)’s Hammer After Zack Littell got a big out to strand the bases loaded in the second inning, Lewis Thorpe took over. He gave up a pair of runs on six hits over his four innings of work, but also flashed some encouraging signs. Thorpe induced 12 swinging strikes on his 72 pitches and struck out four batters. He managed to throw his curveball, which averaged 73.3 mph, for strikes 14 of the 19 times he went to that offering. The bullpen A-team took over from there, as Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Sergio Romo and Taylor Rogers combined to throw three shutout innings of one-hit ball, striking out four while issuing one walk. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.