Tom Froemming

With Zack Wheeler coming off the board, Twins Territory seems to have attached to Madison Bumgarner as the must-have free agent of the offseason. Why? Here’s a look at how MadBum stacks up against two much less heralded pitchers on the free agent market.Bumgarner’s pedigree in the postseason is undisputed, but he hasn’t appeared in a playoff game since 2016. That was the same season ByungHo Park was on the Twins. Doesn’t that feel like forever ago? If you want to cling to MadBum’s October heroics, there’s probably no convincing you that he’s not The Guy. For those of you willing to look past that, I’ve picked two free agents to compare Bumgarner to. As a two-time All-Star, Julio Teheran has some name recognition, but I still sense Twins fans would view him as a consolation prize on this year’s market. Homer Bailey also has some name recognition, but not for good reasons. He’s been my favorite example to use this offseason, mainly because the common knee-jerk reaction to him is “ew, gross.” I’d imagine Twins fans would see him a Terry Ryan-era dumpster dive type signing. Let’s take a look at some of the 2019 numbers. ERA- (which is league and park adjusted) 86 Teheran 93 Bumgarner 99 Bailey Slash line against .245/.291/.426 (.717 OPS) Bumgarner .229/.328/.389 (.717 OPS) Teheran .256/.316/.403 (.719 OPS) Bailey K% 24.1 Bumgarner 21.5 Teheran 21.4 Bailey Those numbers alone build a fair case to consider these three pitchers to be of a similar class, but Bumgarner absolutely destroyed the pitchers he faced in 2019. Check out what happens when we take them out of the equation. Slash line vs. non-pitchers .256/.315/.404 (.719 OPS) Bailey .225/.327/.393 (.720 OPS) Teheran .262/.309/.455 (.764 OPS) Bumgarner K% vs. non-pitchers 21.4 Bailey 21.3 Bumgarner 21.1 Teheran Next, let’s run through some metrics that measure quality of contact. 2019 xwOBA .316 Bumgarner .318 Bailey .323 Teheran Hard hit % (95+ mph) 35.4 Teheran 38.7 Bailey 41.5 Bumgarner Barrels/PA % (barrel = 98+ mph exit velo, 26-30 degree launch) 4.0 Bailey 4.5 Teheran 6.3 Bumgarner And here’s a fun little exercise I’ve been toying around with. Below is an illustration of every home run hit at Target Field (the bright green dots) and all the batted balls surrendered by these three pitches overlaid atop the dimensions of Target Field. First is Bumgarner, then Teheran followed by Bailey. Download attachment: HRs1.gif This isn’t exactly a scientific way to look at the batted ball data, as it’s not like these pitchers would make all their starts at Target Field, but I thought it was an interesting way to present some of the batted ball info. But, but, but … Bumgarner was certainly better under pressure, right? Well … WPA 1.20 Teheran 0.15 Bailey -0.20 Bumgarner Clutch (per FanGraphs) 1.25 Teheran -0.52 Bailey -1.14 Bumgarner Slash against in two outs, RISP situations .200/.286/.340 (.626) Bailey .231/.326/.359 (.685) Teheran .319/.397/.478 (.875) Bumgarner MLB Trade Rumors predicted Bumgarner would get a four-year, $72 million deal and Teheran would get two years and $18 million. Bailey did not crack their top 50 list, but Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs had him pegged for a one-year, $7 million contract. Given their 2019 performances, the only reason I can see why there’s such a dramatic difference in their perceived market value is due to Bumgarner’s legacy. Remind me again, how many actual wins is that worth? For a more positive outlook on Bumgarner, check out Patrick Wozniak’s recent article here at Twins Daily. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Friday morning that the Twins had an agreement with veteran catcher Alex Avila on a one-year, $4.25 million deal. The 32-year-old posted a .774 OPS and started 49 games behind the plate for the Diamondbacks last season.As Passan noted, the catching market has developed quickly, so it's good to see the Twins lock down Jason Castro's replacement. Speaking of Castro, Avila's skill set matches up nicely to the former Twins backstop. Avila is a left-handed hitting catcher who boasts a career .241/.358/.417 slash line (.775 OPS) against right-handed pitching. It's not a perfect comp, as Castro has more power and is the better defender, but Avila will provide the Twins with a veteran presence who is adept at getting on base. Avila is no stranger to the AL Central, as he spent the first seven years of his career with the Tigers, was with the White Sox in 2016 and then returned to Detroit in 17. Alex's father, Al Avila, is the current executive vice president of baseball operations and general manager of the Tigers. He's been with the Diamondbacks the past two years, following up a disappointing 2018 with a solid performance last season. Among the 48 catchers with 200 plate appearances last season, Avila ranked fourth in OBP (.353), 15th in OPS (.774), 19th in wRC+ (97) and 23rd in WAR (1.3). Avila also graded out as a positive pitch framer for Arizona last year, trailing Castro by a small margin (3.2 FRM vs. 2.8 FRM, per FanGraphs). Just a couple weeks ago, Cody Christie mentioned Avila as one of the underrated free agents who would be a good fit for the Twins. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

This is a tremendous deal. By several metrics Pineda was better than both Wheeler and Bumgarner in 2019, and they're all very close in age.

I mentioned both Walker and Kevin Gausman in my article for the offseason handbook. Here are some interesting career numbers to consider: Kevin Gausman (925 2/3 IP, 28-years-old) 21.7 K%, 7.1 BB%, 43.1 GB%, 1.34 WHIP, 95 xFIP-, 4.04 SIERA Taijuan Walker (528 1/3 IP, 27-years-old) 21.3 K%, 7.4 BB%, 43.7 GB%, 1.25 WHIP, 99 xFIP-, 4.08 SIERA And a couple more names for additional context: Zack Wheeler (749 1.3 IP, 29-years-old) 22.8 K%, 8.5 BB%, 46.5 GB%, 1.29 WHIP, 97 xFIP-, 4.03 SIERA Jose Berrios (596 2/3 IP, 25-years-old) 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 40.7 GB%, 1.26 WHIP, 99 xFIP-, 4.23 SIERA Things have not been going Gausman's way the past two seasons and Walker has logged just 14 innings over that time, but both of them are pretty interesting to me.

This is fun, thanks for sharing. I suppose a lot of my story is a bit similar to yours, just set in a slightly earlier era. I was born in the mid-80s, so it was pretty easy to get wrapped up into World Series fever. Being a kid in Minnesota around that time, Kirby Puckett was right up there with Batman and the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles as your favorite superheroes. I always remained interested in baseball, but my family's interest in the Twins specifically tailed off in the mid-90s. The strike hurt, but the Twins being completely irrelevant was probably the bigger factor. I personally started getting back into the Twins a bit in 1999, then attended a bunch of games the next season. You could get in the Metrodome for $4 in 2000, so it was never too difficult to find somebody interested in going, and I'm sure my parents were thrilled to get me out of the house It just so happened that 2000 club was also a really fun team. Really bad, but really fun. A lot of the core guys in that group developed into the next winning Twins team. To have followed that progression was a really rewarding fan experience. Witnessing the 2002 team beat contraction, essentially sticking it to the man, was a kind of thing that leaves quite an impression on a teenager. I have the same feelings toward that team as a lot of people have with their favorite band/musicians from their teenage years. I'd say I was a Twins fan by birth. Both my parents and my brother and sister enjoyed baseball. My grandpa listened to every game, so Herb Carneal and John Gordon were basically the background music of my summers growing up. But, it was all the time I spent as a teenager at the Metrodome from 2000-02 that really pushed things beyond casual fandom for me.

Rowson took the Marlins bench coach job before it was apparent Shelton was going to get the Pittsburgh managerial gig. Had he still been in the org, I assume Rowson would have been next in line for the bench coach job. But, it's also entirely possible Rowson viewed the Miami job as more desirable. He seems to have a lot of old Yankee connections there, it seems that managerial job is much more likely become available at some point in the nearer future and, well, it's Miami. Pretty nice place to spend half your summers.

New Twins hitting coach Edgar Varela took some time before the holiday to chat with Kris Atteberry on the Twins Hot Stove Show. Here’s where you can find the entire episode. Varela made it clear he valued collaboration and his emphasis would be on hunting the good stuff.The Twins announced Tuesday that Varela, the team’s minor league field coordinator the past two seasons, would be taking over as hitting coach. This is the 39-year-old’s first MLB coaching job, though he has joined the Twins for brief periods over the past two years. Varela said he and former Twins hitting coach James Rowson, who took a promotion to become bench coach of the Miami Marlins, conversed often and share many of the same traits. “I think it’s extremely important for players to be comfortable in their own skin and for them to be comfortable speaking to us and talking to each other knowing that we have their best interests in mind,” Varela told Atteberry. “So I think I have a lot of the same philosophies, in that aspect, with J-Row.” Varela also stressed keeping things simple, connecting people together and putting good systems into place. Prior to joining the Twins, Varela coached in the Pirates’ organization the 10 years. He mentioned former Twins catcher Tom Price as one of his biggest influences early in his coaching career with the Pirates. Varela was taught early in Pittsburgh that it was important in a world full of negative information to hunt the good stuff. “I want to continue to hunt the good stuff,” Varela said. “Because things in this game, it’s difficult, and baseball’s just like life. We’re going to get hit right between the eyes and get humbled here and there. I want to continue to find those positive things that happen on the daily so we can continue to move forward, especially when we hit a bump in the road.” Having had the opportunity to work with the top prospects in the pipeline, Varela is excited about 2020 and beyond. “That’s the intriguing piece of this, it’s not the now. Yes, we’re working towards 2020, but what’s to come and sustaining the next few years with what’s to come, is super exciting for me,” Valera said. “Some of the young players that fans have heard about in the system coming up, it’s real. These guys are super athletes, they’re great kids, great young men. “The Lewises, the Kirilloffs, the Jeffers, the Larnachs … those guys, they’re coming. So, again, we talk about the excitement coming for 2020 building off of 2019, but the future’s coming as well.” As a player, Varela spent five years in the minor leagues and one more playing in an independent league. He was selected by the White Sox in the 31st round of the 2002 MLB Draft after playing his college ball at Long Beach State. The Twins still need to replace former assistant pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, who took a promotion with the Mets, and former bench coach Derek Shelton, who is now manager of the Pirates. Here’s a link to that podcast one more time. Valera joins the broadcast around the 11-minute mark. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — The Twins Should Bring Michael Pineda Back for 2020 — Justin Morneau Keeping Twins Territory Warm this Winter — The C.J. Cron Conundrum Click here to view the article

I can relate to this take. While I will always believe the more baseball the better, I'm not qualified to comment on all 42 of these teams potentially being eliminated. Maybe it does make sense for some of these teams to be eliminated, I don't know. I can say, however, Elizabethton is extremely proud of its team and its tradition with the Twins. It's a small city, population of only about 14,000 or so, but it's a well-established team and affiliation. That's really the grossest part of all. The city deferred a police station renovation in order to meet the Twins basically halfway and commit more than $1 million toward stadium upgrades. I believe that entire project only cost something like $2.5 million, chump change for an MLB team/owner. Definitely. The strike hurt every team, I'd argue the Twins more than most others, but it essentially killed the Montreal Expos. Carl Pohlad was more than willing to allow MLB to contract the Twins, but Jeffery Loria basically had his hands around the throat of baseball in Montreal. Sorry you had to go through that. How awful.

The law has had to prevent Major League Baseball from destroying itself to some degree on multiple occasions over the past 25 years. Fans of minor league teams under threat of elimination in Rob Manfred’s new proposal, such as the Elizabethton Twins, might have to hope justice prevails once again.If the MLB and the team owners get what they want, the landscape of minor league baseball is about to change dramatically. Commissioner Manfred, apparently backed by unanimous support from the owners, is actively working to eliminate 42 affiliated minor league teams. John Sickels of The Athletic recently wrote a great piece titled “On MLB’s plan for minor league contraction: You gotta be crazy.” Sickels evoked memories from a time when it appeared the Minnesota Twins would be contracted. It’s easy to forget that appeared to be a foregone conclusion at one point. In November of 2001, the MLB owners voted 28-2 in support of contracting two teams, widely assumed to be the Twins and Montreal Expos. Luckily, the Twins lease agreement on the Metrodome was in effect through the ‘02 season. A Minnesota judge granted an injunction to force the Twins to play their home schedule in the Metrodome that season. Not only did the MLB appeal that decision, but so did the Twins. In January ‘01, the Minnesota Court of Appeals upheld the injunction. Once again, the MLB and the Twins appealed to the state’s Supreme Court. On Feb. 4, the Minnesota Supreme Court announced they were refusing to consider the appeal, essentially forcing the Twins to play the 2002 season in the Metrodome. But how did the downturn in fan interest that led to the threat of contraction come about in the first place? While the 1994 strike hurt every team, it was particularly devastating for the Twins. Backlash to the ’94 stoppage was compounded by the fact the Twins had the worst record in baseball in ‘95. Then Kirby Puckett lost vision in his right eye during spring training in ‘96. It was as if the Baseball Gods were doing everything in their power to send Minnesotans to the St. Paul Saints (who had both Jack Morris and Darryl Strawberry that season), their local town ball team or simply to pick up a new summer hobby. The ‘94 strike lasted 232 days, but it only ended because the U.S. Court system issued an injunction that reinstated the previous collective bargaining agreement until a new one could be agreed upon. The owners’ only option at that point was to impose a lockout. If that lockout would have been ruled illegal, however, it would have resulted in owners paying huge amounts in damages and back pay to players. So the show went on. Could there be hope the courts could protect minor league teams against this proposal? The New York Daily News quoted an anonymous “major league official” who expected there to be plenty of legal action. “I don’t see any way we can do something like this. My God, we’ll be sued all over the place from these cities that have built or refurbished ballparks with taxpayer money, and this will really put our anti-trust exemption in jeopardy. It’s crazy.” More than 100 members of Congress have expressed opposition to the proposal, but MLB already responded with what The Boston Globe depicted as a “feisty” letter. How do we keep finding professional baseball in the position in which it needs to be saved from the individuals running Major League Baseball? Hopefully Elizabethton, a Twins affiliate since 1974, manages to survive this threat of contraction. Afterall, the city recently dedicated funding to renovate the ballpark’s facilities in an effort to appease the Twins and keep minor league baseball in Elizabethton. Here’s hoping the law will be on Elizabethton’s side. We know Major League Baseball isn’t going to be. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Pending Prospects: Which Outfielder Will Be Called up First? — Jhoan Duran Headlines Twins Roster Additions — Episode 8: Get to Know RHP Austin Schulfer, C Caleb Hamilton, RHP Nick Anderson Click here to view the article

I'm not totally sure I get what you're trying to say, but you get some more fun facts!!! Batted balls against with both -Less than 100 mph exit velo -At least 350 feet. Boyd 28 Bumgarner 25 Syndergaard 25 Wheeler 24 Odorizzi 24 Number of those that were home runs Boyd 10 (35.7%) Bumgarner 4 (16.0% Syndergaard 8 (32.0%) Wheeler 3 (12.5%) Odorizzi 5 (20.8%) Grand total of batted balls hit at least 380 feet (regardless of exit velo) Bumgarner 39 Boyd 34 Berrios 33 Syndergaard 27 Wheeler 27 Odorizzi 20 Just picked out the fun names as I saw them.

Could be, but here's another fun fact: Homers allowed with both average exit velocity under 100 and a projected distance under 380. 9 Boyd 8 Wade Miley 7 Trevor Bauer & Martin Perez 6 Eight different pitchers 28 The entire Twins pitching staff

In a vacuum I'd take Snydergaard, but when you factor in he has one fewer season of team control and would cost Graterol, that's enough to tilt me toward Boyd. Also, here are some of the numbers from the past two seasons combined, which is more than 350 innings for both of them: Boyd: 26.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, 1.19 WHIP, 3.91 SIERA Thor: 24.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 1.22 WHIP, 3.82 SIERA So what's with the separation in ERA (3.73 for Thor vs. 4.48 for Boyd)? The biggest difference is run prevention is that Boyd has given up literally twice as many home runs as Syndergaard over that span. What's with that? It's unusual to have such an extreme flyball pitcher post such a high HR:FB. Among the 25 pitchers with a flyball rate above 40% last year (min. 120 IP), Boyd's 18.2 HR:FB was the highest. Only five other pitchers in that sample even had a HR:FB over the league average of 15.3 and five had a rate below 12 (Odorizzi was the lowest at 8.8). The average HR:FB of that sample of 25 was about 13.25. If my math is right, just getting Boyd down to that rate lowers the number of home runs he allowed from 39 to 28. I believe this is a big reason why SIERA views them in such a similar light. If we really want to let our imaginations go and pretend the the Twins can work some magic and get him closer to Odorizzi, down to 10, that drop goes from 39 to 21. I definitely understand why so many people view Boyd through a pessimistic lens, but this is just an explanation on why I feel 1) He's better than most people view him, and 2) He's a good bet to be even better than he has been.

Air is a very important thing I like to put into my body. More air the betterer, I always say.

I'm guessing by Goodman you actually mean Nick Gordon, but correct me if I'm wrong. Gordon has very little trade value right now. Those two plus Duran or Balazovic doesn't quite get the job done either. Those two plus Arraez works, but he's my starting second baseman in this blueprint. Not really a guy I'm looking to get rid of under the circumstances. Three years of a young, but proven, MLB starter who appears to have the potential to reach new heights isn't going to come cheap.

Noooo! The Braves signed Chris Martin to a two-year, $14 million deal. If only I had gotten this into Derek Falvey's hands sooner

I mean, strikeouts are pretty rad. Just for fun, let's take a look at some of Boyd and Stephen Strasburg's 2019 numbers. MB: 30.2 K%, 6.4 BB% SS: 29.9 K%, 6.7 BB% MB: .307 BABIP, 18.2 HR:FB, 88.4 mph avg. exit velo, 34.7 hard hit % SS: .274 BABIP, 16.2 HR:FB, 87.3 mph avg. exit velo, 33.8 hard hit % A big difference between these two is that Strasburg gets a lot more grounders (51.1 GB% vs. 35.6). But, just imagine if Boyd's BABIP and HR:FB ratio could come down, which doesn't seem to be all that unreasonable given the exit velo and hard hit rates. So buying into Boyd certainly takes some belief that he can improve upon some of his results on batted balls, but if he were to accomplish that, he could be a beast.

Here's how that one works out on a couple other projections: MLB Trade Rumors Ryu (3Y, $54M), Wheeler (5Y, $100M), Bumgarner (4Y, $72M) MLB Daily Dish Ryu (3Y, $57M), Wheeler (4Y, $81M), Bumgarner (5Y, $88M) And the median crowd sourced projections from FanGraphs had this: Ryu (3Y, $48M), Wheeler (4Y, $72M), Bumgarner (4Y, $72M) So I think it's very fair to be suspicious about a two-year deal being realistic, but I'd still prefer Ryu in each of these other scenarios.

Always really tough to say, but if I was Detroit I wouldn't take anything less than Larnach as the centerpiece. Boyd has three years of team control left, so it's not like they're going to be very motivated to move him. In no way am I targeting Larnach and Jeffers because I don't believe in them, that just appears to be (at least) the cost of doing business in this case. I do feel the system could withstand losing those two because there are so many other corner outfielders, Mitch Garver is going to be around four more years and I'm pretty high on Ben Rortvedt. Also, I don't understand this, but catching seems to come cheap on the free agent market. I suppose it's due to the injury risk? I dunno. Here are the projected contracts for this year's top catchers (per those same FanGraphs projections I used in the article): Grandal 4Y, $70M d'Arnaud: 2Y, $12M Castro: 2Y, $12M Chirinos: 1Y, $9M Weirdly low, considering position scarcity. That's a long-winded way of saying if it came down to it, I'd much rather have to supplement catching on the free agent market than starting pitching. Still, I definitely understand the attachment to Jeffers. Guys like that are hard to find.

Just a little bit more info on Littell: I'd be fascinated to see how he could apply the lessons learned as last season progressed to working as a starter. His pitch usage changed dramatically to where he was a fastball/slider guy, but I've seen him working with five pitches successfully in Triple A. Similar to Lewis Thorpe, consistency was elusive, but I think it's worth giving guys like that as much time as possible to figure it out as starting pitchers. Also, I don't necessarily feel like Littell is needed in this bullpen. He wouldn't be pitching many high-leverage innings over Rogers/Martin/Duffey/May/Romo. So instead of having him mostly work mop-up duty on the big club, why not give it one last go on the starting path? After all, it's much more difficult to find starting pitching than bullpen help..

On a shelf sit two bottles of dishwasher gel. One is a brand name you’re familiar with, the other a generic. You start reaching for the brand name and notice it’s $5.99 while the other is only $3.69. Is there any reason to pay nearly twice as much for a comparable product?Much like at the supermarket, there are also name brands and generics on the free agent and trade markets this winter. I’m going to be identifying a number of players who represent the plain generic bottle that does just as good a job at a greatly reduced price. *cue cheesy infomercial music* This is a similar line of thinking I explored in my piece for the 2020 Twins Offseason Handbook, which you can download at whatever price you’d like (including $0). Now that’s the ultimate deal. *record scratch* I’ll be referencing Kiley McDaniel’s contract projections from FanGraphs. I don’t have a great reason behind picking those in particular, I just wanted to keep things consistent. Hyun-Jin Ryu (2Y, $32M) over Zack Wheeler (4Y, $68M) and Madison Bumgarner (4Y, $64M) It’s difficult to paint the defending ERA champ as a generic alternative, but I think the shoe fits in this scenario. What am I missing here? Ryu is the best pitcher of this trio. The big divider seems to surround durability concerns, but Ryu did manage to throw 182 2/3 innings in 2019 and is still only 32-years-old. Ryu is unlikely to provide 30+ starts, sure, but that’s fine with me as long as he’s good to go in October. Though he’s coming at a similar AAV to Wheeler and Bumgarner, the shorter commitment to Ryu appeals to me. Less potential for disaster. We’ll split the difference and say that’s about $34 million saved, plus a draft pick. Wheeler and Bumgarner both rejected qualifying offers, meaning any team that signs them forfeits a pick. Some outlets have very different figures on these projected contracts. MLB Trade Rumors has Wheeler at five years and $100 million, MadBum at four and $72 million with Ryu at three years and $54 million. Matthew Boyd as a trade target over Noah Syndergaard It’s amazing what pitching in New York, having a cool nickname and topping out at 100 mph can do for your reputation. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see Thor in a Twins uniform, but Boyd was actually a more dominant pitcher in 2019. Boyd had a 30.2 K% and 14.1% swinging-strike rate while Syndergaard was at 24.5% and 12.5%, respectively. Boyd also bested Syndergaard in ERA-, xFIP- and SIERA. Just imagine what he could do with someone other than Rick Anderson as his pitching coach! Baseball Trade Values has its flaws (Jake Cave is valued higher than Jordan Balazovic, for example), but it also appears to be the best tool at our disposal. They estimate Syndergaard has twice as much trade value as Boyd ($75.7M vs. $37.7M), despite the fact that Boyd has an additional year of team control. He won’t be a free agent until 2023. A package of Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers does the trick for Boyd, per their trade simulator. To get Syndergaard, they project you’d need to add Brusdar Graterol to that package. Pass. Michael Pineda (1Y, $12.1) over Dallas Keuchel (3Y, $45M) That figure listed above for Pineda is his projected $16 million deal prorated with the remaining 39 games of his suspension factored in. Both of these pitchers can play the rust card in regard to their 2019 seasons, Pineda due to injuries and Keuchel due to silly qualifying offer stuff. That’s about all they have in common. Keuchel is a lefty ground ball wizard who essentially pitches to contact while Pineda is a right-handed flyball pitcher who posted a swinging-strike rate comfortably above league average (12.5 vs. 10.8). I’ll take Pineda and save another $32.9 million. For what it’s worth, MLB Trade Rumors had Pineda tabbed for a two-year, $22 million contract and Keuchel at three years and $39 million. Here's the rotation. Since you only need four starters early in the season, covering the rest of the suspension shouldn’t be much trouble. Download attachment: TFrotation.png Chris Martin (2Y, $12M) over Will Smith (3Y, $40M) Yup, I’m pitting a guy you’ve (probably) never heard of against the guy who was the top free agent reliever on the market. Martin edged Smith in xFIP, SIERA and was the only pitcher to post a better K:BB ratio than Taylor Rogers (min. 40 IP). In 55 2/3 innings, Martin struck out 65 batters and walked just five. Both Martin’s average fastball velocity (95.6 mph) and average exit velocity (88.7 mph) also bested Smith’s. Two years of Martin for less than the cost of one season of Smith? Yes please. There’s another $28 million saved. Of course, Smith has already signed with the Braves at this point, but this was just too good a thrift to delete. Sergio Romo (1Y, $3M) over Daniel Hudson (1Y, $6M) Romo had a better fWAR, FIP, xFIP, K-BB% and SIERA than Hudson, who enters the market after a solid postseason showing. It’s too bad Sergio doesn’t have October success on his resume. Oh, wait ... Romo isn’t listed on either of the top 50 free agent lists, but I’d bet $3 million plus some incentives in which he can earn GameStop gift certificates would get the deal done. I’ll count that as another $3 million saved, though MLB Trade Rumors has Hudson projected for a more lucrative two-year, $12 million contract. Brusdar Graterol and Zack Littell Return to the Rotation Even with a few starting pitchers added, I’m still redirecting more resources to the rotation. The staff was remarkably healthy last year, as the team’s primary quintet accounted for 90% of the team’s starts. I’m not banking on that again in 2020. I want to keep Graterol on a track to develop into a stud starting pitcher. His ceiling is enticing, but there’s still work to be done. Some guys fail as starters or were always better suited for a bullpen role, but I don’t see Littell in that light. Think about it, if you could go back in time and convert Taylor Rogers back into a starting pitcher earlier in his career, would you do it? C’mon, you’d at least think about it. Keeping all that starting pitching depth in the minor leagues at the onset of the season also opens the door for guys who are out of options, like Fernando Romero and Matt Wisler, to find spots in the bullpen. If they don’t work out, it’s a lot easier to convert one of the Littell/Graterol/Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe types into relievers than it would be to stretch them back out in the event rotation help was needed. Download attachment: TFbullpen.png Miguel Sano to First Base, C.J. Cron Non-Tendered ($7.7M) I’m ready to accept the fact that the Twins can no longer get away with both Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco on the left side of the infield. Sano is swinging over to first base while Marwin Gonzalez takes over as the primary third baseman. The Rays cut ties with Cron last winter after he posted a 123 wRC+ and 2.2 WAR, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Twins move on after a 101 wRC+ and 0.3 WAR. This decision has more to do with shifting Sano to first base than anything in particular with Cron, but it does also add another $7.7 million saved (projected arbitration salary per MLB Trade Rumors). Sign Martin Maldonado (1Y, $3M) The only bat I’m bringing in is actually a guy I’m more interested in because of his glove. I don’t expect Robinson Chirinos or even Jason Castro, both of whom I’d prefer, would sign with the Twins. They’re good enough to get starting gigs.. What about Eddie Rosario? I think he’s more valuable on the 2020 Twins roster than he’d be in a trade, so he stays. Here’s the starting lineup and bench: Download attachment: TFlineup.png Download attachment: TFbench.png This is a good ballclub with plenty of talent still waiting in the wings. The payroll gets stretched to a franchise-record $132.5 million, higher than I originally intended. Jake Odorizzi accepting the qualifying offer added $10.8 million to my original plan. I explained how that would have worked out , if you’re interested. Still, thrifty shopping saved a total of $97.9 million in cash, Brusdar Graterol (by targeting Boyd instead of Syndergaard) and a draft pick (by signing Ryu over Wheeler or Bumgarner). Oh, and another $7.7 million was saved by non-tendering Cron. Yes, I admit it, this offseason blueprint is also to be included as part of my application to become a member of the Minnesota Twins front office. Ya got me. I hear they’re looking for an Assistant to the Regional Manager of Comparative Sciences and Dumb Jokes (A2RMCS&DJ for those of you familiar with the inner workings of an MLB front office). I guess part of the exam is to build a 2020 roster that protects the Pohlads' pockets but still appeases Twins Territory. Can I put you down as a reference? Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE BLUEPRINTS FROM TWINS DAILY Building a Bullpenner | Nick Nelson Making Big Betts | Nate Palmer Hooking a Big Fish | Ted Schwerzler The Window Just Opened | Jeremy Nygaard Cheat Off the Champs | Matthew Lenz Run It Back | Nash Walker Spending Every Penny | Cooper Carlson Bet the Farm | Matthew Taylor Click here to view the article