Tom Froemming

They rank last in the league in CG+TS (crotch grabs plus tobacco spits). ?

What’s with this new programming from Bally Sports North? They keep showing a replay of the exact same Twins game. They get ahead, bullpen gives up runs, bats leave men on base and they eventually lose. Sheesh, get a new show already! Box Score Maeda: 5 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Polanco (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Alcala -.249, Garver -.108, Kepler -.081 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Kenta’s Concerning Command Kenta Maeda continued to struggle with his command and was visibly upset with himself during parts of his outing tonight. This start extends an alarming trend of Maeda’s whiff rate dropping while his hard-hit rate increases. Here’s a look at the numbers: Whiff% Hard-Hit% 2020 34.7 24.7 2021* 28.7 44.7 Tonight 25.0 57.1 *prior to tonight's game Maeda threw 56 of his 87 pitches for strikes (64.4%), struck out three batters and walked two. He issued multiple walks in just two of his 11 starts last season but this makes four of seven starts for 2021. The only runs Maeda gave up were on one swing of the bat, a three-run homer by Yasmani Grandal. It could have been worse. Web Gems Maeda was aided by a pair of nice run-saving plays by his outfielders. Left fielder Luis Arraez ended the second inning by nailing a runner at the plate on a beautiful throw. The very next inning, center fielder Max Kepler robbed José Abreu of a home run on a very smooth snag. Maybe that would have been off the wall. Maybe. Still, that’s a pair of fine plays by a couple guys in less familiar positions. There were some plays in the field later in the game that were, uh, less good. Feel free to discuss that one among yourselves. RISP/Relief Shortfalls Speaking of negative trends continuing, the Twins got outperformed in terms of both hitting with runners in scoring position and bullpen performance yet again. The Twins went 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position, left 10 men on and the bullpen surrendered six runs. Meanwhile, the White Sox went 5-for-11 w/RISP, only left four men on and received four shutout innings from their bullpen. To be accurate, the bullpen didn’t technically give up the lead since they took over with the score tied. Progress! Jorge Alcala was credited with the loss, however, meaning the bullpen now has a combined 1-12 record. Simmons’ Not So Sexy Swing During a pregame interview, Andrelton Simmons spoke to reporters about how a hitter’s approach may change depending upon whether they’re feeling sexy at the plate. Simmons delivered a base hit in his first at-bat and perhaps was feeling a little too sexy the next time he was up. Dylan Cease induced one of the ugliest “swings” from Simmons you’ll ever see from a batter. It’s hard to describe, just ask Dan Gladden. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here to see the bullpen usage over the past five days (link opens a Google Sheet). View full article

The 16 runners left on base was one shy of a team record. The MLB record is 20. (both of those stats for nine-inning games)

I was able to watch parts of all four games last night but did have some trouble. Things seem to work best through their app on my super old iPad mini. Desktop version through their site struggles for me. Next time try clearing your cache/cookies and if that doesn't work try an incognito tab for Chrome. That did the trick for me last night, for whatever reason.

The Twins’ 6-8 start isn’t disastrous at face value, but with each loss it feels like they invented a new (and painful) way to lose. Let’s take a look at how these Twins have performed in terms of runs scored and runs allowed compared to the usual trends.The two most common ways to look at run scoring and run prevention is by run differential and through that the Pythagorean, or expected, win-loss record. The Twins are looking pretty good by both of those measures. They have a +6 run differential, which is the ninth-best mark in baseball, and an expected record of 8-6. The Twins are losing games they should win isn’t exactly a news flash, but a problem with those stats at this point of the season is blowouts carry a ton of weight. The Twins beat the Tigers by nine runs in one game and beat the Mariners by eight runs in another. Let’s look at scoring and prevention through a bit of a different lens. When MLB teams allow fewer than five runs, they win more often than not. This means when they score five or more they’re also more than likely to win. The Minnesota Twins are not following either formula so far in 2021. All of the scoring information used in this article is from Baseball-Reference’s scoring and leads summary page. Here’s a look at the numbers from every MLB game over the previous two seasons: 2019-20 Scoring Allowing four runs or fewer: 2,616-899 (.744 winning %) Allowing five runs or more: 711-2,428 (.227 winning %) Five runs is the threshold in which winning percentage turns below .500. Here are the winning percentages over the previous two seasons by the number of runs allowed: 2019-20 Runs Allowed One: 591-44 (.931) Two: 640-171 (.789) Three: 575-283 (.670) Four: 442-401 (.524) Five: 298-508 (.370) Six: 178-440 (.288) And here that information is in a graph: Download attachment: ScoringChart.png So far this season, the Twins have already lost three games in which they allowed four runs and another in which they only allowed three. It’s very unusual to have such a poor record in games where you allow so few runs. Let’s take a look at how previous Twins teams have performed in those situations. Record When Allowing Exactly Three or Four Runs 2021: 1-4 (.200) 2020: 10-8 (.556) 2019: 40-8 (.833) 2018: 26-17 (.605) 2017: 24-10 (.706) 2016: 21-24 (.467) It’s pretty incredible the Twins lost as many of these games last year as they did the year before despite it being a shortened season. And they’re already halfway there this year! Add it up and over those five previous seasons the Twins had a .644 winning percentage in games where they allowed three or four runs. This same concept can be applied to runs scored. The Twins have already lost games where they’ve scored five and six runs, which is also unusual. Record When Scoring Exactly Five or Six Runs 2021: 0-2 (.000) 2020: 7-3 (.700) 2019: 28-11 (.737) 2018: 28-12 (.700) 2017: 22-13 (.629) 2016: 24-17 (.585) This year’s team almost has as many losses in these situations as all of last season. Even the lowly 2016 Twins had a winning record when scoring five or six runs. Over the prior five seasons combined the Twins had a .661 winning percentage when they scored five or six runs. To have this team not consistently scoring enough runs when they need them OR not preventing runs when they need to would be frustrating enough to watch on its own. The fact we’ve been treated to BOTH so far has been downright maddening. That's why the start has felt a lot worse than the 6-8 record. A couple final notes: The seven-inning doubleheaders do throw a bit of a monkey wrench into this line of thinking. The Twins lost one of those games in which they gave up three runs this year. That’s roughly the equivalent of allowing four in a nine-inning game, so I still think it’s fair to count that as a game teams will win more often than not. Also, because I have a hunch someone might ask, here is the Twins record in one-run games over the same time frame we’ve been looking at: Record In One-Run Games 2021: 2-4 (.333) 2020: 9-5 (.643) 2019: 23-12 (.657) 2018: 15-21 (.417) 2017: 15-18 (.455) 2016: 15-29 (.341) MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article

Some of y'all need to find a sense of humor.

Make it stop, Bryan!!!

Yep, it's definitely early. We shall see, but I'd bet roughly 30 fanbases view their team's bullpen as a weakness right now.

So some more pitcher's fielding practice is in order.

Sure feels like this lineup could use a spark. Too bad they don't have a top hitting prospect just waiting in the wings across town. That'd be too good to be true.

Fact. Bullpen ranks entering today: ERA 8th WHIP 5th FIP 4th xFIP 3rd SIERA 3rd K-BB% 4th CSW 6th And giving up two runs on three hits and a walk over 4 1/3 innings today shouldn't do too much to hurt those numbers. The bullpen's WPA is junk, 19th in the league entering today, and that's part of how we get to 5-5, but all other signs are pointing to this unit not being an area of concern overall. To your other point ... Twins runs scored 2021 Innings 1-3: 21 Innings 4-6: 23 Innings 7-9: 13 When you're basically asking the bullpen to be perfect almost every night it's easy for it to feel like they're performing miserably.

It looks like Colome, Rogers, Duffey and Robles have combined to give up exactly one extra-base hit so far. Yeah, not worried.

The bullpen is going to give up some runs. Had Rogers been able to pull the ball out of his glove cleanly after fielding that bunt the Mariners wouldn't have scored. Not too concerned over stuff like that. If they start consistently getting shelled or can't find the zone for an extended period, then I'll worry.

I know it can be difficult for some relievers to get hot, sit between innings, and then go back out there, but I think it'd be valuable to get a few guys more accustomed to it. I'm always left scratching my head a bit when there's a relief outing that lasts less than 10 pitches.

Maybe Parker will end up expanding upon this, but for now here's a look at from last year to this year:

Correct, and at that time he essentially had made the same amount of progress through the minor league system as Baddoo had entering this year.

If it came down to it, I personally would have preferred Baddoo over Celestino. Had him ranked higher on my prospect list entering last year. And before Baddoo got hurt, I think we all had him higher (on the 2019 TD prospect list Baddoo was No. 10 and Celestino was 16). I also would have taken Baddoo over LaMonte Wade, who was still on the 40-man roster at the time of the Rule 5 Draft. Oh, and there were four empty spots. Oh, and two of the spots were occupied by Ian Gibaut and Brandon Waddell, who were both later outrighted (with Waddell being re-added this week). I do think it more came down to the Twins thinking nobody would take Baddoo/even it he was selected he wouldn't last past Spring Training than the Twins giving up on him. I know I was a bit surprised he was taken after missing all that time.

Here's every pitch Luis Arraez saw today. Fun to watch.

This feels like one of those "the only rule is it has to work" type situations. News flash: It worked. P.S. Get used to this, especially if it keeps working.

Thanks for following along. Yeah, if these guys keep taking care of business things are going to work out for them one way or another. Thanks Channing!

Hear ye, hear ye! All hail 2021 Sire of Fort Myers Derek Law!!! Before we get to coronation, let’s take a look back at how we got here.A special shoutout is certainly in order for Kyle Garlick. He hit .293/.304/.683 with a team-leading five home runs this spring, earning himself a spot on the Opening Day roster. Garlick both has previous MLB experience (42 games over the past two seasons with the Phillies and Dodgers) and is on the 40-man roster, so he was not Sire eligible. A tip ‘o the cap to him, regardless. The unique circumstances of Spring Training this year slightly limited opportunities in what’s already a competition that revolves around small samples. That created an incredibly right race for Sire of Fort Myers. Keon Broxton (.286/.394/.464) was the early favorite, but faded enough to fall out of contention. Brandon Waddell had some eye-popping performances (1.07 WHIP, 15 Ks), but couldn’t overcome a poor early outing that was the main culprit of a 4.82 ERA. Those two had strong showings, but three candidates emerged in the end. It’s difficult to ask for more than what utility man Tzu-Wei Lin did at the plate this spring, as he hit .300/.440/.600 (6-for-20 with three doubles, a homer and four walks). He also provided some strong glovework and was even two-for-two in stolen base attempts. He was overshadowed by a pair of relief pitchers who were nearly perfect. It’s nearly impossible to pitch any better than Luke Farrell did this spring. He had a 0.00 ERA, 0.63 WHIP and struck out 10 batters while not issuing a single walk. The only things holding him back were out of his control: playing time and quality of opponent. Farrell pitched just 6 1/3 innings this spring and his quality of opponent, a stat made available by Baseball-Reference, was far below that of Sire Law. Derek Law also had a 0.00 ERA, though he logged eight innings pitched. He posted a 0.75 WHIP and slightly edged out Farrell in K%. Law had a 44.8 K% (striking out 13 of the 29 batters he faced) while Farrell was at 41.7% (10 of 24). In quality of opponent score, the biggest differentiator, Law was at 9.2 (out of 10) and Farrell at 7.8. Waddell was also at 7.8 while Lin had a score of 6.4 and Broxton's was 6.1. Here's a look at Law's game log: Download attachment: LawGameLog.png Law's dominant spring comes after a year in which he spent the regular season at the Texas Rangers' alternate site. Prior to that, Law had racked up 167 games pitched in four total seasons with the Blue Jays and Giants. Law will have the crown, cape and scepter bestowed upon him, but for the first time in the award’s history the honor is not being accompanied with a spot on the active roster. The Twins Opening Day bullpen will be fully comprised of either holdovers from last season (Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Cody Stashak and Randy Dobnak as the longman) or relievers signed to big league deals over the winter (Alex Colomé and Hansel Robles). There wasn’t an opportunity in the pen, no matter how well anyone pitched this spring. There was not a Sire of Fort Myers crowned last season, but Law follows in the footsteps of former winners Ryne Harper and Ryan LaMarre. Harper had a 0.00 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and 32.6 K% in 11 innings back in 2019. LaMarre hit .475/.511/.775 in 45 plate appearances back in 2018. For now Broxton, Waddell, Lin, Farrell and Law will serve as additional depth waiting in the wings. They’re also projected to be among the first class of St. Paul Saints players affiliated with the Twins once the minor league season commences in May. Thank you to everyone who followed along with this year’s race for Sire of Fort Myers. This is an exercise I enjoy every year because I am desperate to find any good reason to pay attention to Spring Training games. Now that a Sire has been crowned, it’s on to what we’ve all been waiting for ... Happy Opening Day Eve. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email Click here to view the article