Tom Froemming

The Twins haven’t been the most injured team in baseball. They’re not even in the top five. In fact, they’re barely even in the top 10. If you’re interested in looking at the data, it’s available at spotrac. In terms of number of players who have been or are currently on the Injured List, the Twins are tied for 10th in baseball. Here’s a look at the rankings: TEAM PLAYERS 1. Giants 26 2. Blue Jays 25 3. Padres 23 4. Mariners 22 5(t). Astros 21 5(t). Rays 21 7(t). Dodgers 20 7(t). Brewers 20 7(t). Cubs 20 10(t). Mets 19 10(t). Twins 19 Change the metric to days spent on the IL and the Twins are even lower down on the list. They rank 23rd at 360 days. There are four teams with more than 700 combined days on the IL. And you know what? It hasn’t prevented any of them from having winning seasons. Two of the top four teams are in first place (the Rays and Giants) and the other two have winning records ( the Padres and Blue Jays). TEAM Days 1. Padres 943 2. Rays 748 3. Giants 732 4. Blue Jays 718 ... ... 23. Twins 370 Switch the focus to dollars spent on IL players and the Twins are 21st at just over $6.2 million. And, again, the top-four teams in terms of dollars spent on IL players all have winning records (the Astros, Mets, Yankees and Dodgers). Even right now, with the Twins having 11 players currently on the IL, the team isn’t in the top five. Yes, the Twins have had a ton of injuries, but almost every team in the league has been dealing with similar situations this season. The health of this team isn’t a "get out of jail free" card for those who were in charge of building and managing a winning Twins club in 2021. The Twins played their 60th game last night, which is as many as they played last season. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the team’s number of players and days on the IL from the past five seasons. These are full-season numbers, so the 2017-19 data represents the full 162-game season. TWINS PLAYERS DAYS 2021 19 360 2020 14 389 2019 19 629 2018 18 1,052 2017 15 1,026 And now that same information for the entire league. MLB PLAYERS DAYS 2021 488 14,350 2020 456 13,313 2019 574 49,279 2018 585 34,126 2017 530 31,300 We’re less than 40% through the season. This is pretty crazy. Why? Consequences from last year’s mostly lost season, probably. That sounds like an easy explanation, but I’m not smart enough to find anything better than that (hint, hint: looking for some help here from all you lovely people of the Twins Daily community). If we go back further and compare this era to previous ones, I found the explanation Patrick Reusse offered up interesting. This may have been said with tongue in cheek — sometimes the tone of Reusse’s Tweets can be tough to gauge — but this seems like a legit reason to me. Some people may read that Tweet as "old man mad at new technology" but I think he has a point. In prior eras, the training staff didn’t have much to go on. They had to depend on players self reporting accurately, and they’re almost always going to push to stay on the field. That’s not to say it was necessarily better in the good ‘ol days. Just different. I would just like to see the best players on the field as close to 100% as much as possible. Can’t somebody just go into the settings and turn injuries off? Are things going to keep getting even more extreme going forward? Again, I’m not smart enough to figure that out. Hopefully the 2020 hangover is to blame and things deescalate next season.

Kirilloff gave Minnesota Twins fans a glimpse into his immense potential when he hit four home runs in a three-game stretch. Because this is 2021, he landed on the IL with an injured wrist just a game later and hasn’t been the same since. Kirilloff homered in both games of his rehab assignment with the Saints, but his power has been non-existent since returning to the Twins. Here’s a look at some of the numbers. Before IL Since IL Slash .214/.227/.571 .254/.309/.302 K% / BB% 29.5 / 2.2 25.0 / 7.4 Avg. Exit Velo 96.7 mph 90.1 mph Luckily, the dip in power production has come along with some more hits falling in and gains in regard to both strikeouts and walks. But that’s case closed, right? The dip in power is all the result of the wrist injury. Probably, but Kirilloff is also being pitched a lot differently since his return from the IL. Before IL Since IL Fastball % 50.6 41.4 Breaking % 26.3 41.9 Offspeed % 23.1 16.9 Kirilloff was already seeing a shortage of fastballs before he got hurt — across the league, pitchers are throwing fastballs 57.3% of the time — but since his return fastballs have been even fewer and further between. This is particularly significant because Kirilloff has murdered fastballs. If we’re taking the stance that the wrist injury has sapped his power, which I think is legit, then his pre-IL performance should be viewed as more representative of who he is. Here’s a look at how Kirilloff was performing prior to the injury using xwOBA, with the league averages included for context. xwOBA Kirilloff (pre IL) Leage Average Fastballs .605 .351 Offspeed .457 .289 Breaking .112 .269 So Kirilloff is both trying to hit with a wrist that’s less than 100% and being served a diet of breaking balls usually reserved for established middle of the order hitters. Welcome to The Show, kid. Here's where I take a page out of my four-year-old's book and tantrum about how IT'S NOT FAIR!!! Other rookies get to come up and slaughter a steady dose of fastballs while our guy get's hampered by a wrist injury and pitched to like he's the next Babe Ruth. Anyway ... While Kirilloff has been doing a better job at controlling his plate appearances, maybe the best thing he can do for himself right now, that .611 post-IL OPS is disappointing. As a result, I think he may be pressing. At least that’s the conclusion I’ve come to in explaining the couple bizarre plays he was involved in Sunday in Kansas City. Here’s a video with more on that. *All data in this article is via Baseball Savant.

Major League Baseball isn’t like other sports. The degree of difficulty in the draft is extreme and one player, no matter how good, can only make so big of an impact. Joe Mauer is the fourth-best No. 1 overall pick of all-time, according to Baseball-Reference WAR, behind only Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. Those top four combined to help bring one World Series championship to the teams that drafted them (Jones with Atlanta in 1995). Even when you get this pick right, there’s so much else you have to do correctly to build a successful team. Know who the 10th-best top overall pick is? B.J. Surhoff. He had a nice long career, but when we’re talking about one of the best top picks that’s not a very encouraging guy landing in the top 10. Since the turn of the millennium, we’ve seen busts such as Bryan Bullington (2002), Delmon Young (2003), Matt Bush (2004), Luke Hochevar (2006), Tim Beckham (2008), Mark Appel (2013) and Brady Aiken (2014). There’s been more misses than hits. This is the first overall pick we’re talking about! Twins fans should have the best grip of anyone on how long it can take for draftees to materialize. The 2016 season is long in the rear-view mirror yet we’ve only seen 51 plate appearances (Brent Rooker) and four innings pitched (Bailey Ober) from that draft class. Royce Lewis would have likely been on the verge of contributing, but the tricky thing with these draft picks is they're human beings subject to injuries. And that’s just the draft, MLB’s international signings might be the ultimate crapshoot in all of sports. It seems for every $4 million Wander Javier there’s a $100,000 Ronald Acuña Jr. It seems like the idea of tanking really took off after the Cubs and Astros won back-to-back World Series championships in 2016 and ‘17. Both franchises had long down periods before reaching the top. Chicago was led by 2013 No. 2 overall pick Kris Bryant and Houston by 2012 No. 1 overall pick Carlos Correa. It was easy to believe there was a simple formula to follow but what’s overlooked is how good (or fortunate) both those organizations were with many of their other transactions that had nothing to do with tanking/draft picks. The Cubs made excellent trades for Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Hendricks and Jake Arrieta. The Astros originally signed José Altuve for $15,000, got Dallas Keuchel with the 221st pick of the 2009 Draft and paid just $25.97 for an invaluable trash can from Home Depot (sorry, I couldn’t resist). That’s definitely oversimplifying things — those teams did benefit from tanking — but you have to do so many other things right than just get high draft picks and big international signing bonus pools. Just look at teams like the Orioles, Reds, Tigers, Marlins, Mariners, Rangers and Pirates. They are in varying states of extended rebuilds and have little to show for it. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have 13-straight winning seasons, Dodgers are at 10 years of winning and Cleveland, despite all their (mostly self-imposed) limitations, has eight consecutive seasons with a winning record. Those teams haven’t had to lose, let alone bottom out, to stay competitive. People like to marvel over the fact that Mike Trout was the 25th-overall pick. But Mookie Betts was the 172nd, Shane Bieber was the 122nd, Jacob deGrom was the 272nd … we could go on and on. Any team in baseball could have had all four of those guys at the same time. Think about that for a second! There is no limitation that counts as an excuse for not being successful. There is also no monetary or talent-acquisition advantage such as draft position that is a silver bullet for success. So how do the Twins ensure a successful future? Same as always: Be elite in player acquisition and player development. Hey, I said it wasn’t that easy.

Before we get to the actual proposal, I just want to make sure to be extra clear that this is a hypothetical scenario that DeRosa is throwing out there. This isn’t a trade in the works that’s being reported or even a trade rumor. This is DeRosa just spitballing an idea he feels makes sense. Does it? DeRosa has Josh Donaldson and $15 million in cold, hard cash going to the Milwaukee Brewers for veteran center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and left-handed pitching prospect Antoine Kelly. Donaldson is owed the prorated amount of his $21.75 million salary for this year, that full amount for next season and has a $16 million option for 2023 that comes with an $8 million buyout. Bradley Jr. signed a two-year $24 million deal prior to this season and is playing terribly for the Brewers (.160/.228/.294 in 180 plate appearances). Kelly is ranked by MLB Pipeline as Milwaukee’s No. 6 prospect. He’s also broken. The 21-year-old is recovering from surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome. Here’s video of the segment in which DeRosa explained the logic behind the idea: Basically, this would be the Brewers (30-26) taking a shot at what appears to be a very winnable NL Central while the Twins are primarily getting salary relief, though sending that large a chunk of cash along with taking on Bradley’s money negates that to a degree. I encourage you to share your thoughts in the comments. For me, this doesn’t make sense for the Twins. It is, however, a great example of the type of deal the Twins may be faced with if they did try to trade away Josh Donaldson. Even though I don’t think this is a particularly great trade hypothetical, I do appreciate getting an unbiased thought from DeRosa here. With the Twins struggling, it’s easy to say they need to trade veterans for prospects but players who are owed large sums of money often actually have negative trade value. If there’s anything to take away from DeRosa’s proposal, I think it’s that. I think Twins fans as a whole have been disappointed in Donaldson’s production thus far, but he’s actually hit better for the Twins than he did in the season he played with Atlanta prior to coming here, in terms of league averages. Donaldson had a 124 OPS+ in 2019 and has a 133 mark so far with the Twins. I wouldn't be desperate to trade him away. Speaking of desperation, I know Bradley Jr. would fill the Twins' current need for a center fielder, but it doesn't sound like Byron Buxton is too far off from a return. I expect the Twins to be open to the idea of trading Donaldson, but don’t think packaging him with a bunch of cash for an overpaid and underperforming player and a broken prospect is what they’d have in mind. OK, maybe that’s selling Kelly a bit short. He was a second rounder in 2019, about a dozen picks after the Twins took Matt Canterino, but TOS just scares me. That can be such a mysterious injury. Still, this proposal serves as a good reality check in terms of what Donaldson’s perceived trade value is right now.

There were some bright spots in May, certainly more than there were in April, but another losing month is still dissatisfying. If you’re looking for a bit more balanced look back at the month with a few positive notes mixed in, here’s a video I recorded on the team’s ups and downs for the month. Just want to dwell on the downs? Let’s do it. This is my list of five, it’s subjective and partially based on expectations. Share the guys you were most disappointed in down in the comments. Nelson Cruz Is it age, injuries or just a bad stretch of luck? Cruz hit .221/.302/.360 (.662 OPS) in May. It’ll come as no surprise that is his worst month as a Twin, but this is the lowest OPS he’s posted in a month since June of 2015. Cruz was hit in the wrist by a pitch on May 20 and went 2-for-18 for the rest of the month. With all the other injuries to other veterans this team needs Cruz to be the guy. Here’s hoping the further we get away from that wrist injury the better he starts to look. Josh Donaldson Donaldson’s overall line wasn’t exactly a trainwreck, he hit .222/.328/.404 (.732 OPS) in May. That was aided by closing on a game in which he reached base four times. The real problem with his performance was what he did in high-leverage situations. Donaldson was 3-for-19 with runners in scoring position and hit .158/.208/.211 in 24 plate appearances in those situations. He entered the final day of the month with the worst WPA among all Twins hitters. Thankfully, hitting with runners in scoring position isn’t very predictive, so there’s no reason to believe Donaldson won’t bring in more runs this month. J.A. Happ One of the biggest bummers of May was the Twins went 1-5 against the Chicago White Sox. Happ was part of the reason why the Twins did so poorly, giving up 15 earned runs in seven innings pitched across two starts against the Sox. Happ had an 8.49 ERA in five starts during May and opponents hit a ridiculous .320/.380/.567 (.947 OPS) against him. Jorge Alcala This may seem like a surprising entry on the list, but I was really hoping Alcala could emerge as a solution to fixing some of the Twins’ bullpen woes. He may ultimately prove to be just that, but he didn’t take advantage of the opportunities provided to him in May. Alcala had a 4.35 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the month, but issued nearly as many walks (five) as he had strikeouts (six) in 10 1/3 innings pitched. He gave up a two-run homer in the sixth inning of a tie game against Chicago and another two-run homer in the eighth inning while trying to protect a one-run lead against Baltimore. I would have love to see him shine in those moments. Maybe next time. Andrelton Simmons I’m just done with this guy. Not really in a “I think the Twins should release him” type of way, because he’s one of their few healthy regulars. More in a “I don’t like watching baseball whenever he’s hitting” kind of way. Simmons wasn’t brought in for his bat, of course, but he hit .228/.297/.304 (.601 OPS) in May with 21 strikeouts, the most he’s recorded in one month ever. He entered this year with a strikeout rate below 10%, which is basically the only interesting thing about him offensively. He struck out in 20.8% of his plate appearances in May. The last bit of disappointing news to go over is that you all are going to have to put up with seeing more junk like this from me. I have stepped down from the content editor role I’ve served in here at Twins Daily since March of 2018 and will instead be focusing my efforts solely on content creation once again. Deal with it.

Box Score Happ: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 5 K Home Runs: Larnach (3) Top 3 WPA: Larnach .196, Garver .135, Cruz .108 Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) The Twins jumped out to an early lead, scoring runs in the first and second innings, but that advantage was quickly erased by a Salvador Perez two-run homer in the third. J.A. Happ retired the last seven batters he faced after giving up that homer. The bats took the lead back thanks in part to a Rob Refsnyder RBI bloop single and a run-scoring passed ball. They tacked on runs in the sixth and eighth innings to extend the lead to four runs. Every bit of that wiggle room was needed. Jorge Alcala and Tyler Duffey each delivered a perfect inning before Hansel Robles gave up a run in the eighth. Taylor Rogers came on for the ninth inning to protect a three-run lead and got off to a concerning start. After Kelvin Gutierrez doubled Adalberto Mondesi hit a two-run homer to reduce the lead to one run with no outs in the ninth. Rogers induced a groundout then struckout the final two batters he faced to secure his fourth save of the season. Larnach’s Bomb Larnach’s home run was another tape-measure shot. He went deep into the Delta Sky360 Suite earlier this week and nearly did it again today. This one was “only” hit 423 feet with a 109.5 mph exit velocity. Postgame Interview Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Robles 13 20 0 0 21 54 Rogers 26 0 0 0 21 47 Duffey 0 15 0 0 13 28 Thielbar 2 16 0 0 0 18 Farrell 0 0 0 17 0 17 Minaya 0 0 15 0 0 15 Colomé 13 0 0 0 0 13 Alcala 0 0 0 0 10 10

It took the Boston Red Sox 86 years to break the Curse of the Bambino and the Chicago Cubs 71 years to break the Curse of the Billy Goat. Let’s hope whatever’s happening to the 2021 Minnesota Twins it doesn’t loom over the team for that long. Of course, revisionist history will apply any curses back to originating in 1991 and provide some explanation behind the 0-18 drought, but something feels different about 2021. There’s an extra serving of curses (or is that just my vocabulary?) After doing extensive research on the topic, I’ve come up with three possible origins of the curse. 1. Curse of the T___s One of the common memes that always pops back up after the Twins get swept out of the playoffs involves taking the “win” out of Twins. They’re either referred to as the T___s or the Tins accompanied by an altered logo such as this one: Well, no need to crack open any image editing software now, the Team has done the work for you. This year's promotional campaign appears to taken the “win” out of Twins. Some of the glitchy, pixel art stuff they’ve done for their promotional material has been kinda rad, but what is this even supposed to be? Go who? That certainly doesn't say Twins. It's bad enough this joke is so on point in the first place. Didn't need the team feed fuel to the fire. 2. Curse of the Fox That’s right, the Cubs had a billy goat, the Twins have a fox. Fox Sports North, that is. The rebranding from Fox to Bally Sports North has come along with a disastrous turn for the Twins. Don’t think this one carries any weight? Well, the Twins won the only game they played so far that wasn’t broadcast on BSN. On April 28, the Twins beat Cleveland 10-2 on YouTube’s MLB Game of the Week. The numbers don't lie. Maybe it’s just the Curse of Victory Sports One living on ... 3. Curse of the Evergreen Ghost This is my personal spin on an old favorite here. The Twins opened Target Field in 2010 with beautiful evergreen trees in front of the batter’s eye. They went 94-68 (.580) that season, with a particularly impressive 53-28 (.654) record at home. That winter, they relocated the trees, which hitters had complained about being a distraction. In a fall that’s feeling all too familiar at the moment, the Twins went from 94 wins to 99 losses. Three more losing seasons followed. Prior to the 2019 season, the team installed a living wall of evergreen plants and the team won its first division title since the trees were still up. So, problem solved, right? WRONG. Field's haunted. The 2019 green wall installation was enough to temporarily appease the Evergreen Ghost, but it’s not enough. It demands more. The entire outfield wall needs to be covered in these things like Wrigley Field’s ivy. Yes, we’ve moved from curses to hauntings. I don’t know what to tell you, this is just how the paranormal works. Seems fitting for this 2021 Twins team so far. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

The video below touches on some of these impressive early performances and includes highlights of Ober, Winder, Gray and Julien. St. Paul Saints: Bailey Ober, RHP Year Age Tm Lev ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 2021 25 St. Paul AAA 1.29 7.0 5 1 1 0 3 8 29 1.143 6.4 0.0 3.9 10.3 2.67 Wichita Wind Surge: Josh Winder, RHP Year Tm Lev Aff ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO BF WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W 2021 Wichita AA MIN 1.17 15.1 14 2 2 0 4 19 60 1.174 8.2 0.0 2.3 11.2 4.75 Cedar Rapids Kernels: Seth Gray, 3B Year Age Tm Lev G PA HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2021 23 Cedar Rapids A+ 10 45 1 9 10 .250 .467 .438 .907 Fort Myers Mighty Mussels: Edouard Julien, 2B Year Age Tm Lev G PA HR BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2021 22 Fort Myers A 10 39 0 11 13 .321 .513 .464 .977 *Stats via Baseball-Reference MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email