Tom Froemming

The Twins lost the Wild Card game. The circumstances in which it happened were pretty tough to swallow. This isn’t the kind of thing that’s easy to react to right away. Time is going to heal wounds and the good memories are going to outlast the bad ones, but right now … well, in the wise words of Joe Mauer “This sucks right now.”Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: NewSnap.png Brian Dozier hit a leadoff homer, Eddie Rosario added a two-run shot and the Twins were up 3-0 in the first inning. Hard to realistically imagine a better start for Twins fans. Luis Severino was bounced from the game after he recorded just one out. Just as euphoria began to sweep across Twins Territory, it was blown away just as quickly. Ervin Santana gives up a three-run homer to Didi Gregorius to tie the game in the bottom of the first inning. It’s OK, that’s just like a 0-0 ballgame, right? Santana gives up a homer to Brett Gardner in the bottom of the second to give the Yankees the lead. The Twins answered in the third, tying the game, but they also stranded runners on second and third base for the second straight inning. Jose Berrios took over for Ervin and the Yankees took the lead right back. The next inning, Aaron Judge delivered the finishing blow in the form of a two-run homer. The Yankees scored their final run off the game when Alan Buesnitz walked in a run on four pitches. There were plenty more downers in this one. The Twins were already forced to play without the injured Miguel Sano, but Byron Buxton was forced to leave this game in the bottom of the fourth due to a back injury he suffered while making another ridiculous catch in center field earlier in the game. What, that’s it? No, of course not! There is going to be plenty more analysis of this game and the entire 2017 season here at Twins Daily in the days to come. Tomorrow night I’ll be posting a recap of all the recaps, sort of a final sign-off from me, putting a nice bow on what has been an amazing experience for yours truly. Click here to view the article

Five hours to first pitch and I already fell like I'm gonna barf ... This is gonna be awesome!

That's a good point. I've never really looked into home plate umpire numbers or put thought into what they mean. It's really fun to be obsessing over a game to this level.

That would make Star Wars day a heck of a lot more fun!

Umpiring assignments are in. Alfonso Marquez will be behind home plate. He had the lowest K/9 rate of any umpire this year at 7.2. League average was 8.3. This is reading way, way too far into it, but if anything that could benefit the Twins. The Yankees staff is much more reliant on Ks.

No player can have a bigger impact on a single game than the starting pitcher. Go out and throw a gem, you've put your team in excellent position to win. Turn in a clunker and your team may have already been sunk in the early innings. With that in mind, here's a deep look into how Yankee starter Luis Severino likes to attack hitters, Ervin Santana's history against the Yankees and some other notes regarding tomorrow's big game.All About Luis Severino Here’s the stat on Severino that makes me most optimistic: 23. As in, he’s only 23-years-old. Maybe that doesn’t matter, but if you take a look at the rest of his numbers, there’s aren't many things to pick at. He’s been phenomenal. Severino was the third-best pitcher in the AL behind only Chris Sale and Corey Kluber, so this is really grasping for straws, but he has been much worse at home and has not dominated lefties like he has same-sided pitchers. -Severino at Yankee Stadium: 3.71 ERA, 15 homers, .627 OPS. -Severino on the road: 2.24 ERA, six homers, .579 OPS. -Severino OPS Against: LHB: .667, RHB: .550. Current Twins hitters have a .813 OPS against Severino, but that's come in only 14 plate appearances. Not much to really go off there. Another thing about Severino is he’s fairly predictable. He’s a strict three-pitch guy and uses his arsenal as you’d expect. The slider is featured against righties (42.9 percent sliders vs. 7.8 percent changeups) and the change comes out more frequently against lefties (26.6 percent sliders vs. 19.8 percent changeups). He throws his four-seamer 51.35 percent of the time, but leans on that pitch slightly more against lefties. Like most pitchers, that four-seamer is his go-to pitch to open an at bat. He throws that for the first pitch 63.3 percent of the time. His strikeout pitch is the slider, which he throws 65.8 percent of the time when he has two strikes on a right-handed batter. To lefties, the four-seamer is actually is preferred pitch when he gets to two strikes, throwing that 51.5 percent of the time. His fastball averages 97.6 mph, the slider at 88.4 mph and the change is 87.8 mph. All that data is per Brooks Baseball, as are the charts below. One would imagine if right-handed hitters can just focus on pitches middle in, they should give Severino a tough time. That relies a lot on pitch recognition, however, which is much easier said than done against a guy who throws everything this hard. Here's how Severino attacks right-handers: Download attachment: SeverinoZone.gif And here's how he pitches to lefties: Download attachment: SeverinoLHB.gif On the Twins Platoon Advantage Another potential reason to be optimistic is Severino is a right-hander. The Twins were among baseball's best hitting team against righties, finishing fourth in OBP (.355), fifth in wOBA (.322) and sixth in both OPS (.777) and wRC+ (104). That's not much of a surprise, considering how many lefties and switch hitters the Twins rely on in their everyday lineup. That onslaught versus right-handers was led by Eddie Rosario, who had a .906 OPS, .377 wOBA and 135 wRC+. Rosie ranked in the top-15 in the AL in all three of those stats vs. RHP. The Yankees have two very tough lefties in their pen, but they’re in limited roles. Aroldis Chapman is their closer, so it’s not likely he’ll be deployed until the very last innings. Chasen Shreve has actually been even better against lefties than Chapman this year, holding them to a .498 OPS, but he’s a straight LOOGY. Right-handed batters have hit .227/.338/.491 (.829 OPS) off Shreve, accounting for seven of the eight homers he’s allowed. The Yankees also have lefties Jordan Montgomery, CC Sabathia and Jaime Garcia, but none of those three made a single relief appearance this season. Ervin Santana vs. the Yankees Unfortunately, this does not appear to be a great matchup for Ervin. -Career at new Yankee Stadium: 0-5 in six starts, seven HRs allowed, 6.43 ERA, 1.71 WHIP. -Vs. Current Yankee Hitters: .272/.316/.481 (.798 OPS) over 176 PAs. But something interesting about Santana in this one-game format is he actually had reverse platoon splits for the second-straight season. Lefties have hit .228/.284/.372 off Santana over that span, so there’s really no need to try and play matchups as long as he's on the mound. On Yankee Stadium At 51-30, the Yankees had the third-best home record in baseball, but the Twins were tied for the sixth-best road team at 44-37. We know Paul Molitor likes to play small ball, but this is a Yankees team that averaged 5.57 runs per game at home. Giving away outs to gain one run seems like a fool’s errand against this team in this run-scoring environment. The Twins have had the best offense in the AL since the All-Star break. There’s really no need to small ball. Yankee Stadium has the fifth-smallest outfield in baseball, so the Twins defense is not going to be as big a strength as it would be at Target Field. Some balls Max Kepler would easily glide under for harmless outs at home are going to sail over his head for homers at Yankee Stadium. On Roster Construction The two questions that really stick out to me are what to do with Miguel Sano and who do you trust as the second lefty out of the bullpen? Sano managed to return from his shin injury, but was clearly not 100 percent and went 1-for-8 with three strikeouts. Taylor Rogers is the obvious go-to guy to get a tough lefty out, but who would be the second option? Candidates include Buddy Boshers, Glen Perkins, Nik Turley and Gabriel Moya. Adalberto Mejia would be in the mix too, but he’s not accustomed to coming out of the bullpen. With those options, the Twins may be better served to just go with one of their better right-handers if the situation arises and hope for the best. For what it’s worth, lefties hit just .225/.244/.300 (.544 OPS) off Alan Buesnitz, though that's only a sample of 45 plate appearances. Additional Twins-Yankees related content at Twins Daily: Small Miracles: How To Beat The Yankees by Nick Nelson Ep 336: Twins vs Yankees by Gleeman & The Geek A Blueprint For The Bronx by Ted Schwerzler A Gedankenexperiment: Beating The Yankees by John Bonnes Those Damn Yankees by Nick Nelson Click here to view the article

How about LHPs in the pen? Rogers is the easy choice for guy you trust the most, but who's next? Buddy? Turley? Does Moya make the roster? Or do you turn to Adalberto and just cross your fingers that he adjusts to pitching out of the bullpen?

I was just going to skip the bullpen report, since everybody's going to be fresh heading into Tuesday's game. But I figured I'd toss that in instead just for fun. Looks like Hector's going to end up finishing seventh on the team in innings, which does seem really weird. Feels like he hasn't pitched in forever. He did a nice job in helping the team avoid another dreadful start, though. His first seven starts were so great (2.76 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and opponents hit just .213/.299/.290). Too bad it all went to hell.

So you're just going to throw out the 114 games he played and the fact that he's the single most dangerous hitter on the team? Also, it looks like the Twins went 21-17 while Sano was out with this injury. Of those 21 wins, just two came against teams with winning records and 11 came against 90-loss teams. They would've cleaned up even more down the stretch had Sano been in the lineup.

I'd start Sano at DH, but I don't feel super strongly about that opinion. Either way, I know the Twins will have more info on Sano than anybody and will make a very informed decision on what to do with him.

Jason Castro hit a go-ahead two-run single and his 10th home run of the season and Bartolo Colon held Detroit to one run over 6.1 innings to lead the Twins to victory in their final game of the regular season. This was the 85th victory of the year for the Twins. On to the Big Apple ...Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot101.png Jason Castro quietly had a very nice season for the Twins, but he was overshadowed by many of his teammates. He had the second-best season of his career at the plate, surpassing the numbers he had posted the previous three years. He also played a role in turning the pitching staff from having the worst ERA in the league in 2016 to 20th this season. Castro was the only significant addition the Twins made this offseason, which makes their turnaround from 103 losses to the postseason all the more impressive. It was the guys who were already in place who really led this team out of the basement. Guys like Brian Dozier, who was 2-for-2 with his 30th double, 78th walk and scored his 106th run. Chris Gimenez hit a pinch-hit homer, his seventh of the season and Joe Mauer had an RBI double. Joe closes out the regular season with a .305 batting average and an .810 OPS. That's the first time he's hit those marks since 2013. Byron Buxton stole his 29th base of the season. The only time he was thrown out stealing all year was when he overslid the bag. Miguel Sano was 0-for-3 with a strikeout, and did not look especially comfortable the two times he had to run to first base. Paul Molitor has until Tuesday morning to submit his roster for the Wild Card game. It seems likely Sano will be present, but the Twins skipper will have a difficult decision to make as to whether or not to start Sano or turn to him as a pinch hitter. It was nice to see Colon’s season end on a high note, especially after he struggled in September. The game ended with Gabriel Moya, who entered the game in the eighth inning with the score 4-1, picking up his first career save. He struck out two batters over 1.2 perfect innings. So that does it for the regular season. Next up: The Wild Card game in New York. I'm already stressed out just thinking about it. This is gonna be awesome. Final AL Central Standings Cleveland 102-60 Minnesota 85-77 (-17) Kansas City 80-82 (-22) Chicago 67-95 (-35) Detroit 64-98 (-38) Final AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 91-71 (+6) WC2: Minnesota 85-77 Kansas City 80-82 (-5) Angels 80-82 (-5) Tampa Bay 80-82 (-5) Postgame With Molitor Pitcher Usage Doing something different for the finale. Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the staff over the course of the entire season: Download attachment: Pitching101.png Looking Ahead Mon: OFF Tue: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Yankees (Luis Severino), 6:00 pm CT Wed: OFF Thu: Twins (TBD) at Cleveland (TBD) … book it. Looking Back DET 3, MIN 2: Twins Lose In Romine Sideshow Game MIN 6, DET 3: Dozier, Escobar Lead Offense To Victory CLE 5, MIN 2: Ervin Caps Banner Year With 5 Shutout Innings Click here to view the article

Andrew Romine played all nine positions for the Tigers, but the Twins still couldn’t beat them, not that it matters. What does matter is tonight marked the return of Miguel Sano to the lineup. It was also an emotional evening for Glen Perkins, who likely made his final appearance for the Twins.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot930.png Any time a guy plays all nine positions it’s obviously a bit of a stunt. Detroit clearly has nothing to play for at this point, and tonight’s accomplishment by Romine is among the highlights of their season. This was all for fun, and it’s hard to hold anything against the Tigers, but I would assume the Twins weren’t thrilled with how he was used on the mound. The only batter Romine pitched to was Sano. That was unfortunate timing.I don’t think the Twins needed to see what Sano could do against 85 mph batting practice. Sano hit a 113.6 mph single in his first at bat of the night, but followed that up with strikeouts in his next two plate appearances. Against Romine, he grounded out to third base. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: bullpenupdate.png Looking Ahead Sun: Twins (Bartolo Colon) vs. Detroit (Anibal Sanchez), 2:10 pm CT Mon: OFF Tue: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Yankees (Luis Severino), 6:00 pm CT Looking Back MIN 6, DET 3: Dozier, Escobar Lead Offense To Victory CLE 5, MIN 2: Ervin Caps Banner Year With 5 Shutout Innings CLE 4, MIN 2: Twins Lose, Clinch Postseason Berth Anyway Click here to view the article

The Tigers jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the first inning, but back-to-back homers from Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar in the second inning put the Twins on top and they never looked back. Kyle Gibson labored in his final appearance of the regular season, but the bullpen, which included Jose Berrios, was stellar. There was even a Miguel Sano sighting.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapsho929.png There was a pretty significant portion of the crowd of 34,580 that didn't even get inside the stadium before the Tigers scored their three runs. Gibson gave up a single, an RBI triple and a two-run homer before recording the game's first out. But from there, Detroit added just six more hits. Dozier opened the home half of the first by hitting a double that also provided some comic relief for his teammates. He would have likely had a triple, but Dozier tripped on his way to third and had to scramble back to second, just beating the tag. Escobar followed with a double of his own to score the team's first run. It looked like the Twins might go down quietly in the second inning, as the Tigers retired the first two batters. But Chris Gimenez drew a walk, Ehire Adrianza hit a long double, Dozier blasted a three-run home and Escobar added a round tripper of his own to put the Twins up 5-3. Ed later added an RBI single, giving him three run-scoring hits on the evening. Gibby only lasted 3.2 innings, and it took him 87 pitches to get that far. Ryan Pressly recorded the last out of the fourth inning before Jose Berrios came in to make his first relief appearance of the season. He gave up a pair of hits and struck out a batter over 1.1 innings. Tyler Duffey provided 1.2 innings of scoreless relief before Taylor Rogers (0.2 IP) and Trevor Hildenberger (0.1 IP) combined to cover the eighth and Matt Belisle closed out the game and picked up his ninth save. Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen929.png Looking Ahead Sat: Twins (Aaron Slegers) vs. Detroit (Buck Farmer), 6:10 pm CT Sun: Twins (Bartolo Colon) vs. Detroit (Anibal Sanchez), 2:10 pm CT Mon: OFF Looking Back CLE 5, MIN 2: Ervin Caps Banner Year With 5 Shutout Innings CLE 4, MIN 2: Twins Lose, Clinch Postseason Berth Anyway MIN 8, CLE 6: Twins Use Team Record 10 Pitchers In Victory Click here to view the article

The Twins partied late into the night Wednesday, celebrating their postseason berth, which meant this afternoon their “B” squad was going to get some reps. They got dominated by Carlos Carrasco, but even with somewhat of an unfamiliar cast of characters the team displayed the same fight to the finish spirit we’ve seen all year. The Twins managed to score a pair of runs in the ninth but eventually fell to Cleveland, who won their 100th game of the year.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot928.png How huge is it that the Twins were able to clinch early? The majority of the regulars got to take a day off. The focus for this weekend can switch from sprinting to the finish to tuning up for what’s next. Heck, Miguel Sano may even have the opportunity to test his shin in a low-stress game situation, though that still sounds like a longshot. A bunch of the young guys got in today against a team that still had something to play for and faced one of the better pitchers in baseball. Cleveland is trying to fend off the Houston Astros in the race for the best record in the American League, and their starter today, Carrasco, ranks fourth in the AL in pitcher WAR. While resting the regulars and letting the young guys gain experience was a win-win, unfortunately, the Twins couldn’t also win the ballgame. Not that it matters at this point, the Twins are locked in as the second Wild Card team no matter what happens from here on. Now it’s not like it was a complete skeleton crew for the Twins. Ervin Santana was pitching to Jason Castro. Robbie Grossman, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler were also in the lineup, but it was pretty awesome to see a thinned out Twins roster at least hold its own against a 100-win Cleveland club. Carrasco struck out 14 Twins hitters over 8.1 shutout innings. Mitch Garver drove in both of the Twins runs when he hit a two-out triple in the ninth. Santana threw 5.0 shutout innings, limiting Cleveland to four hits. He had one strikeout and did not issue a walk. He was very efficient, throwing just 57 pitches, but there was really no reason to push him any further than five frames. Offense was up across the league this season, but apparently Ervin didn’t get that memo. He’ll finish the regular season with a 3.28 ERA over 211.1 innings. That’s the lowest ERA he’s registered since his 2013 season in Kansas City and the most innings he’s logged since way back in 2011 when he was still with the Angels. Trevor Hildenberger and Alan Busenitz both gave up two-run homers and Nik Turley gave up a solo shot. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen928.png Looking Ahead Fri: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 7:10 pm CT Sat: Twins (TBD) vs. Detroit (Buck Farmer), 6:10 pm CT Sun: Twins (TBD) vs. Detroit (Anibal Sanchez), 2:10 pm CT Looking Back CLE 4, MIN 2: Twins Lose, Clinch Postseason Berth Anyway MIN 8, CLE 6: Twins Use Team Record 10 Pitchers In Victory MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again Click here to view the article

The Twins got to closer Cody Allen but were unable to overcome Cleveland, so all eyes were on the Angels-White Sox game at the conclusion of this one. If the White Sox can win, the Twins would clinch the second Wild Card spot. UPDATE: The White Sox won it on a walk-off homer in the 10th inning, the Twins are in the postseason!Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: SnapShot927.png The Twins displayed their typical “no retreat, no surrender” mentality we’ve seen all season, but their comeback effort fell short. Entering the ninth inning, the Twins had just a pair of doubles and a walk, all of which came with two outs. It was another impressive display from the Cleveland staff, who had allowed 60 fewer earned runs than any other AL team heading into tonight. But Brian Dozier led off the ninth inning with a single and Jorge Polanco drove him in on his 13th home run of the season to make the score 4-2 Cleveland. Byron Buxton added a two-out single to keep the rally alive, but Max Kepler grounded out to end the game. UPDATE: Who cares!?!?!?!? Let's just skip right to the celebration: OK, back to Wednesday night's game. Adalberto Mejia lasted just 3.2 innings, continuing a trend of brief starts for the 24-year-old. In 21 starts, Mejia is averaging less than five-innings per outing and has only gone 6.0 innings or more in four of those starts. Still, he’s posted a respectable 4.50 ERA over his rookie season. Danny Salazar was electric tonight for Cleveland, but luckily was on a pitch count. He struck out nine batters over 4.2 one-hit innings. Unfortunately, things didn’t get any easier against the bullpen. A bright spot for the Twins tonight was the bullpen, as five relievers combined to limit Cleveland to one earned run over 4.1 innings. Another unearned run scored due to an error by Eduardo Escobar. John Curtiss pitched 1.2 no-hit innings in relief and had one strikeout and hit a batter. That’s three-straight scoreless appearances for Curtiss now. AL Wild Card Standings THE TWINS ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS!!!!! Go crazy, folks. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen927.png Looking Ahead Thu: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Cleveland (Carlos Carrasco), 11:10 am CT Fri: Twins (Jose Berrios) vs. Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 7:10 pm CT Sat: Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Detroit (Buck Farmer), 6:10 pm CT Looking Back MIN 8, CLE 6: Twins Use Team Record 10 Pitchers In Victory MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen Click here to view the article

Sorry to have let everybody down, lol I'm on vacation in Duluth right now and decided to take a crack at doing one of these things on my iPad. Had some hiccups.

Yep, it was. Just feels wrong to type am for a game time. Thanks, fixed.

The Twins got a ridiculously short start from Bartolo Colon in what was a ridiculously long game against Cleveland, but Brian Dozier delivered a three-run homer in the eighth inning that lifted the Twins to victory. The Twins ended up using 10 pitchers, which was a team record for a nine-inning game.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: IMG_0689.PNG Download attachment: IMG_0690.PNG Dozier led off the game with a double high off the left field wall, came around to score the first run and finished 3-for-5 with that three-run homer, his 33rd, and three runs scored. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: IMG_0692.PNG Looking Ahead Wed: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Cleveland (Danny Salazar), 6:10 pm CT Thu: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Cleveland (Carlos Carrasco), 11:10 am CT Fri: Twins (Jose Berrios) vs. Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 7:10 pm CT Looking Back MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen MIN 7, DET 3: Gibson, Offense Keep Rolling Click here to view the article