Tom Froemming

For the second straight game the Twins beat the Tigers by the score of 10-4. Jorge Polanco continued his second-half surge, hitting a double and his 12th home run of the year, Eduardo Escobar hit his 20th homer and Jose Berrios held the Tigers to two runs over 5.0 innings. The victory polished off a convincing four-game sweep of Detroit.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: IMG_0685.PNG Download attachment: IMG_0684.PNG The Twins jumped out to a 5-0 lead by the top of the fifth inning, making for a pretty low-stress Sunday afternoon for the club. Detroit scored twice in the bottom of the fifth, but the Twins answered with a five-run sixth inning. The Twins collected 12 hits, two apiece from Brian Dozier, Joe Mauer, Polanco and Kennys Vargas. Eddie Rosario drew two walks. Alan Busenitz pitched a scoreless inning, lowering his ERA to 1.50. Ryan Pressly (0.2 IP) and Taylor Rogers (0.1 IP) combined for a scoreless inning of their own. Michael Tonkin took care of the final two innings and gave up a two-run homer to Ian Kinsler in the ninth. This was the 82nd victory of the year for Minnesota, giving the Twins a winning record and putting this year's club just a win behind the 2015 team with six games left to play. The Twins also now hold a commanding lead in the race for the second Wild Card spot. Clinching early would give the team an opportunity to provide the veterans some much-needed rest before amping up for that play-in game. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 86-69 (+4.5) WC2: Twins 82-74 Angels 76-78 (-5.0) *Sunday game in progress when this published. Rangers 76-79 (-5.5) Royals 76-79 (-5.5) Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: IMG_0686.PNG Looking Ahead Mon: Off Tue: Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Cleveland (Josh Tomlinson), 6:10 pm CT Wed: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Cleveland (Danny Salazar), 6:10 pm CT Looking Back MIN 10, DET 4: Twins Blow Out Tigers Bullpen MIN 7, DET 3: Gibson, Offense Keep Rolling MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back Click here to view the article

One moment it looked like the Twins were going to blow a quality start from Ervin Santana, the next moment they were blowing out the Tigers. An eight-run eighth inning turned the tables in this one as the Twins destroyed the Detroit bullpen.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot923.png Brian Dozier led this one off with a “home run” of sorts, but not the type of leadoff homer we’re used to seeing from Dozier. He bunted and circled the bases on a throwing error. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen923.png Looking Ahead Sun: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Tigers (Buck Farmer), 11:10 am CT Mon: Off Tue: Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Cleveland (Mike Clevinger), 6:10 pm CT Looking Back MIN 7, DET 3: Gibson, Offense Keep Rolling MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back NYY 11, MIN 3: Twins Crumble At Yankee Stadium (Again) Click here to view the article

There's been a ton of great coverage and analysis on Gibson's turnaround. Here are a few links for anybody looking for some extra weekend reading: -As you mentioned, Brandon Warne wrote about him at The Athletic. There is a paywall, but you can get a free trial to read that piece. -Matthew Trueblood wrote about Gibby for Baseball Prospectus. He also pointed out Gibby is throwing from a different arm slot, among other things. That article is free (thanks Aaron). -Of course, Twins Daily has covered this too. Nick Nelson wrote about Gibson's turnaround at the end of August, before it was cool -Ted Schwerzler also wrote about Gibson over at Off The Baggy, pointing out his increase in off-speed offerings. -Derek Wetmore covered Gibby's turnaround for 1500 ESPN, honing in on his four-seam fastball. -Eddy Almaguer at Fake Teams also target Gibson as a fantasy sleeper earlier this month and shared some good, nerdy stuff. I'm sure other blogs the STrib, Pioneer Press and the team's official site have had some good stuff too. Feel free to share links I may have missed.

How about that Kyle Gibson? He delivered another quality start as the Twins beat the Tigers, and has people starting to wonder if he’s turned the corner. Of course, having some premium run support hasn’t hurt his cause, either. The bats delivered another nice cushion for Gibby tonight, scoring six runs while he was in the game.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot922.png Gibson held the Tigers to three runs over 7.0 innings. He gave up five hits, two of which were homers, and walked a pair of batters while striking out six. He also induced three double-play balls. He’s been a bit of a chameleon of late, mixing up his pitch selection to lean more on his four-seam fastball and slider as opposed to the two-seamer. Here’s a breakdown of his pitch mix from his previous start (9/17): Download attachment: Gibby917.png And that has been fairly consistent with how he’s pitched over the past two months. Well, here’s what he did tonight: Download attachment: GibbyTonight.png Back to tons of two-seamers (or sinkers, depending on who you ask). He doesn’t deploy the curveball or changeup as frequently, but hitters still have five pitches they need to prepare for when they dig in against Gibson. He's also working up in the zone more frequently. Whether the goal is being a little less predictable, he's attacking his opponent's weaknesses or it’s simply that he’s leaning on a pitch he has the feel for that night, this new Gibson is rolling. In the 10 games he has started since the beginning of August, Gibson has a 3.32 ERA and the Twins are 8-2. And, of course, the Twins have had the best offense in the American League since the All-Star break. They’ve been giving Gibby plenty of support, and Friday was no exception. The lineup provided six runs while Gibson was on the bump. Byron Buxton led the way with three hits, two of which were doubles. He drove in two runs and also scored twice. Max Kepler had two hits, including his 19th home run of the season off lefty Daniel Norris. Brian Dozier hit his 32nd homer and stole his 16th base of the year. Postgame With Gibson AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 85-68 (+5.5) WC2: Twins 80-74 Angels 76-77 (-3.5) Rangers 76-77 (-3.5) Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen922.png Looking Ahead Sat: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Tigers (Matthew Boyd), 5:10 pm CT Sun: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Tigers (Buck Farmer), 11:10 am CT Mon: Off Looking Back MIN 12, DET 1: Once Again, The Twins Bounce Back NYY 11, MIN 3: Twins Crumble At Yankee Stadium (Again) NYY 5, MIN 2: Tough Night For Berrios, Twins Click here to view the article

Seems to be an odd time to complain about pitching staff management. They gave up one run last night.

Ha! I've basically been given free rein of the best Twins site on the Internet. I should probably be paying them, not the other way around

That’s more like it! After a demoralizing sweep, the Twins opened up a stretch in which they’ll face the Tigers in seven of their final 10 games by delivering a strong message. I'm sure Detroit would love to play the role of spoilers, but it appears the Twins aren’t gonna have any of that.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot921.png This team takes care of business. There have been about a dozen times where it seemed appropriate to count this club out over the course of the season, and while they’ve had their struggles against some of the top teams in the league, they’ve done an excellent job at avoiding extended skids. The longest losing streak the Twins have endured this season is just four games. For every devastating blowout, a bounce back has followed. For every sweep, a hot streak. The series at home against Houston when they were swept and outscored 40-16; getting swept in a four-game series at home against Cleveland; going 5-12 heading into the trade deadline and watching their closer get dealt away … none of those things killed these Twins. It looks like their sweep at the hands of the Yankees isn’t going to finish them off, either. Every time these guys get their teeth kicked in, they just say “screw it, we like applesauce anyway, let’s eat.” The Tigers are in shambles, finishing the season in a complete tailspin, but that shouldn’t take away from the fact that the Twins cleaned up against them Thursday night in Detroit. This was a big opportunity for the team to deliver a message that there will be no spoiling this season. Joe Mauer had yet another big night, going 3-for-4 with a double, a walk, a pair of RBI and two runs. There’ve been a lot of great moments this year, but seeing Joe fill up the stat sheet again of late has been particularly satisfying. He entered tonight’s contest with a .333/.413/.447 line since the All-Star break. Jorge Polaco also continued his second-half breakout, tallying three more hits and drawing a walk. Eduardo Escobar had a pair of hits, a walk and scored three times. Max Kepler had two well-struck hits and drove in a pair of runs. Byron Buxton had a big two-run single and had his 22nd-straight successful stolen base attempt. That tied a team record. The offensive outburst was impressive enough to garner the Starship treatment ... Good teams beat bad teams. Check. Good teams win on the road. Check. Good teams take care of business. Period. Maybe the Twins aren’t among the American League’s elite, but this is a good baseball team. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 85-67 WC2: Twins 79-74 Angels 76-76 (-2.5) Rangers 76-76 (-2.5) Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen921.png Looking Ahead Fri: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Tigers (Daniel Norris), 6:10 pm ET Sat: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Tigers (Matthew Boyd), 5:10 pm CT Sun: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Tigers (Buck Farmer), 11:10 am CT Looking Back NYY 11, MIN 3: Twins Crumble At Yankee Stadium (Again) NYY 5, MIN 2: Tough Night For Berrios, Twins NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins Click here to view the article

The Yankees completed their sweep with a bang, blowing out the Twins 11-3. That’s the bad news, and it definitely stings. The good news? The rest of the AL Wild Card contenders are steeped in mediocrity. No matter what happens with the Angels tonight the Twins will maintain their lead in the Wild Card race.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot920.png Bartolo Colon struggled today and has been a mess of late. Over his last three starts, he's has given up 16 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. Today, Colon gave up six runs on seven hits, two of them home runs, over 3.1 innings pitched. What made matters worse was the bullpen couldn’t stop the bleeding. Tyler Duffey gave up three runs over 0.2 innings and Nik Turley gave up a pair while recording just a single out. That implosion was especially depressing because the Twins had jumped out to a 3-0 lead. Kennys Vargas got things going in the third inning with a one-out infield single. He then advanced from first to third on a Jason Castro single. I guess that silent “s” stands for speedy. Brian Dozier drew a walk to load the bases before Joe Mauer put together what may have been the team’s finest at-bat of the entire season. Facing Luis Severino, who has been among the best pitchers in the American League this season, Mauer fell behind 0-1 and then 1-2. He fouled off seven of the next nine pitches, taking the other two for balls. On the 13th and final pitch of the at-bat, Mauer pulled a 99 mph fastball through the infield for an RBI single. Jorge Polanco followed with a two-run single and the Twins were up 3-0. But just when it was feeling like they might get the monkey off their back, Colon gave up two homers in the bottom of the inning to tie it up. It was a bad day that ended a bad series for the Twins, but luckily they’re still in control of their own destiny. Even if the Angels win tonight (UPDATE: they didn't), they’ll still be a half game back. Plus, seven of the Twins last 10 games come against the Tigers, who have been the worst team in baseball over the past month. Coming into today, Detroit was 9-21 over their last 30 games. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 85-67 (+7.0) WC2: Twins 78-74 Angels 76-75 (-1.5) Rangers 75-76 (-2.5) Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen920.png Looking Ahead Thu: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Tigers (Jordan Zimmermann), 6:10 pm ET Fri: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Tigers (Matt Boyd), 6:10 pm ET Sat: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Tigers (Buck Farmer), 5:10 pm CT Looking Back NYY 5, MIN 2: Tough Night For Berrios, Twins NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory Click here to view the article

According to ESPN's home run tracker that ball would've been out of all 30 parks.

The Twins led early but surrendered four unanswered runs and Jose Berrios lasted just 3.1 innings. Outside of Joe Mauer, this is an entirely different team than the one that endured so much heartbreak against the Yankees, yet the Twins continue to be snake bit. What gives?Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: Snapshot919.png Jose Berrios didn’t have his best game tonight. I doubt he’ll make excuses, but I’ll offer some up on his behalf. First off, the Yankees are always a tough team to pitch against. They’re so patient. Second, this was Jose’s first time pitching in Yankee Stadium. That’s a pretty big moment for any ballplayer. Third, this was his first start since his wife gave birth to their third child. And fourth, Hurricane Maria was on the verge of hitting his home country of Puerto Rico as this game got underway. That’s a whole lot for a 23-year-old to handle. I would assume he was able to block most of that out while he was actually on the mound, or else he wouldn’t have even lasted as long as he did. But, those things had to have had an impact on his preparation for this start. And, as we all know thanks to Yogi Berra, baseball is 90 percent mental and the other half is physical, so that stuff is important. Berrios only lasted 3.1 innings, but when he exited the game was tied 2-2. He gave up five hits, walked four and was charged with three earned runs. The Twins got hits from their first three batters of this game (more on that in a moment), but managed just five more hits the entire rest of the contest. A couple of weird things happened in this one. Joe Mauer committed a fielding error. On the plus side Max Kepler hit a homer off a left-handed pitcher. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 84-67 (+6.0) WC2: Twins 78-73 Angels 76-74 (-1.5) Rangers 74-76 (-3.5) Mariners 74-77 (-4.0) Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen919.png Looking Ahead Wed: Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Yankees (Luis Severino), 12:08 pm CT Thu: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Tigers (Jordan Zimmermann), 6:10 pm ET Fri: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Tigers (Matt Boyd), 6:10 pm ET Looking Back NYY 2, MIN 1: Garcia, Yankees Bullpen Dominate Twins MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory TOR 7, MIN 2: Pub Crawlers Have Best Night Ever Despite Twins Loss Click here to view the article

The odds are always in favor of the pitcher recording an out ... that's exactly why outs are so precious.

I don't think they laid down any sac bunts, right? They stole second base four times, but I don't think they ever bunted to advance anyone.

... Jason Castro's OBP is exactly league average ...

One more thing to add regarding Betances, after he has fallen behind 1-0 (as he did to Granite), opposing hitters have a .466 OBP and 31.1 BB% this season.

Here's a link to Tom Tango's run expectancy matrix. I believe this is the same information that's in Keith Law's book Smart Baseball. If you look at the middle table, that is giving the odds that your team scores at least one run in an inning in any give scenario. With a runner on first base and nobody out, you have a 41.6% chance of scoring a run. With a runner on second and one out, you have a 39.7% chance of scoring a run. So bunting a guy to second to record the first out decreases your likelihood of tying the game. But lets breakdown what we're looking at here. This is big data. These tables are generated off actual game situations from 2010-15. Like, every inning of every game. In a way that's great, because the sample size is huge, but on the other hand it fails to account for the specific situation in the particular game you're watching. But here are a couple numbers that make it seem like the bunt was an even worse call in this particular scenario: -Dellin Betances has walked 17.3% of the batters he's faced this year. So there's a chance he could've just walked Castro/Granite and advanced the tying tun to second base anyway without recording an out. -One of the better reasons to bunt is to try and avoid the double play, but Betances is terrible at inducing them. He's gotten 10 DPs in 199 career opportunities. That's 5%, league average is 11%. So it was over three times as likely that Betances simply walks the tying run to second base than it was that he was going to get a double play. I know those aren't the only two possible outcomes, and the scales are always tipped in favor of the pitcher recording an out, but given both the big data and the specific data in this case, there is very little to support bunting in that situation. The other problem with bunting there is it also greatly reduced the chance the Twins would score multiple runs and take the lead. That's the top table at the link I provided. With a runner at first a no outs, you're going to score .859 runs that inning on average. With a runner on second and one out, that drops to .664.

The Twins pitching staff, led by starter Ervin Santana, had a solid game Monday night at Yankee Stadium, but the bats were uncharacteristically quiet. The Twins have had the best offense in the American League in the second half, but could only muster four hits and struck out 13 times tonight.Snapshot (chart via Fangraphs) Download attachment: CorrectedSnap.png Old friend Jaime Garcia … wait, can we even call him that? I mean, it was really just a one-night stand, right? Anyway, the guy the Twins traded for and then traded away after just one start absolutely killed them tonight. Since the trade, Garcia had struggled to find his footing with the Yankees. Over six starts he had a 4.60 ERA. There were no such struggles tonight. The veteran lefty gave up one unearned run over 5.2 innings and struck out nine batters. Below is a breakdown of Garcia's pitches on the evening via Baseball Savant. While he may have gotten a couple of generous called strikes, Twins hitters swung through a ton of pitches outside the zone. Download attachment: JaimeGarcia.png The Twins got a leadoff double from Jorge Polanco in the second inning, but failed to score. They got their first two batters on in the fifth. Eddie Rosario had gone first-to-third on an Eduardo Escobar single, with an error being charged to Aaron Judge. The Twins managed to scratch across a run that inning on a Robbie Grossman fielder’s choice. The Twins went down in order in both the sixth and seventh innings. The dominant Dellin Betances came in for the eighth inning and led things off by hitting Grossman with a pitch. Luckily it was an 84 mph curve and not a 100 mph fastball. Now one thing to note about Betances is that while he has been just as overpowering as ever, his control has been all over the place. After averaging 3.5 BB/9 last season, that number has spiked to 6.6 this year. Jason Castro was due up next, but Paul Molitor opted to bring in Zack Granite to bunt. The first pitch was high, but Granite got the bunt down on the second pitch of the at bat. Per Fangraphs, the Yankees’ win probability actually increased from 65.9 percent to an even 70 percent as the result of that bunt. Max Kepler pinch hit and was walked on four pitches to turn over the lineup. With Brian Dozier batting, Betances threw a wild pitch that advanced both runners. Dozier ended up walking after a nice eight-pitch battle. Betances exited, leaving the bases loaded. Just six of the 17 pitches he threw went for strikes and the only out he recorded was on the Granite sac bunt. Aroldis Chapman came in and struck out Joe Mauer on three pitches and got Byron Buxton to fly out to end the threat. Chapman pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save. It was a shame, too, because the Twins pitched pretty well tonight. Ervin gave up a pair of runs over 5.2 innings, but Trevor Hildenberger and Taylor Rogers pitched out of jams they inherited and Tyler Duffey had a scoreless appearance. The Yankees got their first run on Judge’s 44th homer of the year. In the sixth, they had back-to-back one-out singles. Santana threw a wild pitch that allowed the runners to move up to second and third. After intentionally walking the next batter in hopes of setting up a double play, Todd Frazier hit a sac fly to score what went down as the game-winning run. AL Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 83-67 (+5.0) WC2: Twins 78-72 Angeles 76-73 (-1.5) Mariners 74-76 (-4.0) Postgame With Molitor Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen918.png Looking Ahead Tue: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Yankees (CC Sabathia), 6:05 pm CT Wed: Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka), 12:08 pm CT Thu: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) at Tigers (Myles Jaye), 6:10 pm ET Looking Back MIN 13, TOR 7: Mauer Grand Slam Among 4 Twins Homers In Comeback Victory TOR 7, MIN 2: Pub Crawlers Have Best Night Ever Despite Twins Loss TOR 4, MIN 3: Pressley Fails To Pounce, Is Victim Of A Bad Bounce Click here to view the article

Dozier talks about the thought process behind that bunt in the postgame interview I included. I had no problem with that, take what the defense is giving you. Even if he didn't get the hit, you get two runners in scoring position with one out.