Tom Froemming

I would respectfully disagree. I thought he's done a great job chronicling Buxton's swing adjustments and Jose Berrios adjusting between the major and minor league ball. He was the first reporter I remember who covered the Twins' investment in better nutrition for the minor leaguers. He also is the only beat writer who had the nerve to actually press Molitor on all the bunting and wrote a great article on it, though it came after the season was already over. He said in the chat that the list is not his evaluation of the players, but more his conclusions based on information he gathered from sources both inside and outside the organization. Is that the best methodology? I'm not sure, since those sources might have ulterior motives. By now, I'm sure Mike has a very strong BS indicator and can tell when someone is trying to use the media as a tool for their own good.

I love Javier, I believe I had him highest of anyone in the Twins Prospect Handbook, but he did have a 27.2 K% and committed 16 errors (.893 fielding percentage). In comparison, Nick Gordon had a 17.7 K% and .964 fielding percentage when he was in the Appy League. Javier has definitely shown a lot more power potential and errors/fielding percentage should be taken with a grain of salt. He has the tools to be a good defensive shortstop. He could be a five-tool player, but his warts aren't going to really appear until he starts facing some more advanced pitching. What if that K rate keeps increasing? What if he can't smooth things out in the field? What if he gets bigger and is forced off shortstop?

Baseball America released its Top 10 Minnesota Twins Prospects for 2018, and there was a familiar face who slid down the rankings. One year after being named by the publication as the team’s top prospect, Nick Gordon slotted in at No. 8. Did his poor second half cause Gordon’s prospect stock to slip?Here’s a link to the Baseball America’s article on the list and the chat that Mike Berardino participated in. Just a heads up, most of this content is behind a paywall, but BA is outstanding and you should consider signing up for a subscription. The list itself is available to anyone. If you haven’t seen it yet, here it is: Royce LewisWander JavierAlex KirilloffStephen GonsalvesBrusdar GraterolFernando RomeroBrent RookerNick GordonBlayne EnlowTyler JayThis is a fun list, and I’m sure Berardino put a ton of thought and legwork into putting it together. There are a few surprises, but Gordon was certainly the biggest. Berardino was quick to point out in the chat that he did not compile last year’s list, so it's not really his job to rationalize the big dip from last year. Still, it’s a bit jarring to see Gordon so low, especially after he had his best offensive season. Gordon was also just 21-years-old throughout the entire season, three years younger than the average player in the Southern League. To put that into some perspective, when Brian Dozier was that age, he was still only a junior in college. Then again, Jorge Polanco made his major league debut at 20. Apples to oranges, I guess, but the point is Gordon is still quite young. Let's check out some of the numbers ... The Good -Gordon got off to an amazing start, hitting .315/.376/.504 (.880 OPS) in the first half. -He hit a career-high nine home runs in 122 games played. Coming into 2017, Gordon had just five homers in 293 career games. -He also posted a career best 9.2 BB%. Prior to 2017, Gordon had a career walk rate of 5.7 percent. -He hit the most line drives in the Southern League, registering a 28.0 LD%. -He stayed healthy, racking up 578 plate appearances. That was tied for the third most among all Double-A hitters. -He was ranked 19th on Baseball America’s Midseason Top 100 and 33rd on Baseball Prospectus’ Midesason Top 50. -Gordon also represented the Twins at the Futures Game, serving as the leadoff hitter and shortstop for the U.S. team. The Bad -Gordon had a terrible second half at the plate, hitting .221/.304/.305 (.609 OPS). -He was helpless against lefties, posting a .174/.273/.240 line (.513 OPS) -He had the worst strikeout rate of his career, 23.2 percent. Coming into the year, he had a 17.1 K%. -He was still only successful in 65 percent of his stolen base attempts (13-for-20), which is also roughly his career rate. -He committed 22 errors in the field, 19 at shortstop and three at second base (to be fair, Polanco made 30 errors in his age 21 season). Unfortunately, advanced defensive stats aren’t really a thing in the minor leagues yet. My Take Gordon probably isn’t as good as his crazy first half, but he’s definitely not as bad as his terrible second half. There are questions about his ability to stick at shortstop, but at this time a year ago I was basically having a panic attack thinking about Polanco being the Twins everyday guy there. Coaching can go a long way toward helping an infielder refine his defense. I have Gordon as my No. 3 prospect in the system, one spot ahead of Wander Javier, due in large part to the advances he made as a hitter. His power doesn’t stand out, but he took a huge step forward. He makes a lot of hard contact and is learning to draw more walks. With all that in mind, I didn’t see any reason to drop him in my rankings (though he slid down a spot from 2017 thanks to the arrival of Royce Lewis). It’s a lot easier to pin dreams on guys who haven’t even made it to full-season ball than it is on someone who’s played an entire season in Double-A. The closer a prospect gets to the majors, the more likely his flaws are going to be exposed. Gordon has some red flags, and I can see why someone would drop him down to the eighth spot. I don’t look at Berardino’s list and interpret it as a slam on Gordon, I see it as him being really high on the other six guys who follow Lewis. And there are plenty of good reasons to get excited about those players. What do you think? Is Nick Gordon’s glass half full, or half empty? The Twins Prospect Handbook has more prospect lists than you can shake a stick at, including every one of Seth Stohs’ rankings going back to 2006. Here is a link to the paperback, which is $15.99, and here is a link to the PDF, which is $10.99. Click here to view the article

I would have included him in the pen, but in this fantasy scenario of no signings or extensions he would have already left via free agency by 2021.

One of the best parts of putting together the Twins Prospect Handbook is taking a deep dive into the players who will populate Target Field in the years to come. Cody Christie took a look ahead at the 2021 Minnesota Twins line-up earlier this week. Today, I’ll do my best to forecast the pitching staff.This projection does not factor in any kind of free agent additions or extensions. All the guys added this offseason will be gone by then. Ervin Santana, Kyle Gibson and Ryan Pressly will all be free agents in 2020 at the latest. Trevor May will be a free agent in 2021. Bartolo Colon will be 48 by then, so … With that in mind, here is what I came up with for the 2021 Minnesota Twins projected pitching staff. I included each player’s “baseball age” (defined by Baseball-Reference as a player’s age on July 1) for 2021. I cheated on the rotation. I had a difficult time cutting it down to five starting pitchers, so I distorted my crystal ball to show that there would be six-man rotations by 2012. Is that a cop out? Yup, sure is. Jose Berrios (27) Here's the only question I have about Berrios: How many Cy Young Awards will he have won by 2021? OK, maybe that’s going a little overboard, but it’s pretty impressive how far he’s already come. In 2017, he was one of only three pitchers to make at least 25 starts in his age 23 season or younger. The other two were Colorado’s German Marquez and Luis Severino of the Yankees. Berrios was one of only 40 American League pitchers to eclipse 145 innings last season, and his 3.89 ERA ranked in the top half of that group. Fernando Romero (26) Romero is the most likely of the current crop of Twins pitching prospects to develop into a top of the rotation pitcher. At the same time, he’s also probably the most likely to end up in the bullpen. Romero’s 2017 totals are solid, but a terrible finish overshadowed the fact that he showed flashes of greatness. He had a 13-start stretch in which he went 9-1 with a 1.40 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.9 K/9. That hot streak coincided with the exact same time frame Romero was teammates with the next guy on this list … Stephen Gonsalves (26) At first glance, Gonsalves’ 2017 numbers make it look like he took a step back from previous seasons. Look a little deeper and you discover a career-high 3.81 strikeout-to-walk ratio that stands out as a big indicator of progress. After three-straight seasons of an escalating walk rate, he managed to trim that mark down to 2.5 BB/9. His overall numbers with Rochester aren’t great, but those are marred by an ugly performance out of the bullpen. Three of his four other outings were quality starts. Adalberto Mejia (28) We got to see some of Mejia’s warts at the Major League level in 2017, but he still has plenty of time to smooth things out. Paul Molitor was very cautious with the Dominican lefty, limiting him to less than five innings per start on average. Mejia only surpassed the 100-pitch mark three times and completed six or more innings in just four of his 21 starts. But he ended his rookie season with numbers that are comparable to the AL averages for starting pitchers. Here’s hoping he only goes up from there. Zack Littell (25) Littell is still a new face to the organization, and based off all the prospect lists people are still trying to get a feel for where he fits into the big picture. For me, he’s kind of like a right-handed version of Stephen Gonsalves: Doesn’t have the greatest stuff out there, but he really knows how to pitch, prepare and compete. It is a bit of a red flag that he’s already been traded twice, but I suspect the Yankees were willing to let him loose because they envisioned Littell being selected in the Rule 5 Draft. Lewis Thorpe (25) Just like everyone else I’ve mentioned, Thorpe is already on the 40-man roster. I’d be shocked if he debuts in 2018, but the team has every incentive to get him moving up now that he’ll be burning through options. After two years off due to injuries and illness, Thorpe bounced back nicely in 2017. He’s only had one appearance above High-A, so there’s still a long way to go, but he’s also got a chance to have three legit Major League pitches. How could I not include this guy? On to the bullpen. The crazy part of the group I ended up with is the majority of these guys figure to be contributors in 2018. In fact, all but one has already made his Major League debut. Along with starting rotations growing, my crystal ball is also indicating that the closer role will have evolved by the time 2021 rolls around. But if you force me to pick the guy who I think best fits as a traditional closer, how about J.T. Chargois? He throws the hardest of this group and (given his injury history) might be the guy best suited for a rigidly-defined role. Trevor Hildenberger (30) Gets strikeouts, induces groundballs and doesn’t walk anybody. What’s not to like? Hildenberger has also been very healthy, especially when compared to some of the other names in this group, so I feel very comfortable writing him in as the top arm in my projected pen. He was drafted as a fifth-year senior, so there was little incentive to bring him along slowly. He only made 53 appearances between Double-A and Triple-A combined, so it’s possible he may get even better as he adjusts to facing more advanced hitters. Tyler Jay (27) His arsenal has the depth of a starter, the stuff of a closer and he’s left-handed. It’s easy to see why the Andrew Miller comps get thrown around. While I think it’s not what the Twins envisioned when they picked him No. 6 overall, I can still see Jay reaching that potential if he manages to stay on the field. I don’t think there are many conclusions we can draw from his 2017 season, but it was great to see him finish out the year healthy in the Arizona Fall League. J.T. Chargois (29) Chargois is another guy who has all the tools, he just needs to stay healthy. Given his short track record in the majors and extensive injury history, at some point it may have made sense for the Twins to DFA him and hope he slid through waivers. I think the fact that they’ve hung on to Chaggy over guys like Nick Burdi and Luke Bard says a lot about how they view his future. After finishing out 2016 with a 0.79 ERA, 0.71 WHIP and 10 strikeouts over his final 11.1 innings with the Twins, he appeared poised to make a big impact. It’s too bad he got hurt again. John Curtiss (28) What a year this guy had. Twins fans may remember him taking some lumps on the big club at the end of the season, but he also struck out 10 batters while issuing just two walks over 8.2 innings. In his minor league career, Curtiss has averaged 11.3 K/9 and struck out 30.0 percent of the batters he faced. Just nasty. He could probably benefit from some more time in the upper minors, as he’s only logged 39 appearances above High-A. Taylor Rogers (30) Yep, Rogers will still be around. In fact, he’s not set to reach free agency until 2023. Over his first two years in the bullpen, Rogers has pitched to a 3.54 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. At this point, it looks like he’ll be best used as a lefty specialist (right-handed hitters have a .289/.355/.435 line against him), but that’s still a role that every team needs filled. Much like with Mejia, we’ve seen some of Rogers’ warts, but I’m still inclined to include him in the 2021 bullpen. Alan Busenitz (30) A former 25th-round pick who was considered a throw in to the Ricky Nolasco/Hector Santiago/Alex Meyer trade, Busenitz is looking a lot more intriguing after a breakout 2017. He was called up from Triple-A on three separate occasions last season, but put up nice numbers at both levels. His strikeouts took a dip against more advanced hitters, dropping from 9.9 K/9 in Triple-A to 6.5 with the Twins, but he still posted a 1.99 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in the majors. Felix Jorge (27) Lots of starters end up in the bullpen. Jorge has a cool personality, smooth delivery and five-pitch mix, so I assume he’ll continue to start for as long as possible. But, much like Rogers, I could see him eventually finding a home in the bullpen. He’s never missed many bats in the minors, but he's got the velo. He topped out at 95 mph over his two appearances with the Twins last season per Brooks Baseball. As a reliever, maybe Jorge could add a few more ticks and be even more effective by eliminating a couple pitches. Just missed the cut: Tyler Duffey (30), Gabriel Moya (26), Lachlan Wells (24), Kohl Stewart (26), Aaron Slegers (28), Tom Hackimer (27), Jake Reed (28) among many others. Regarding this group, it’s important to keep in mind that a year ago a lot of people wouldn’t have been penciling in Hildenberger as a huge part of the team’s long-term future plans. The Twins Daily 2017 Minor League Primer listed Chargois, Reed and Burdi all above Hildy among the top relief prospects, and that was only about 11 months ago. These things can change really fast. It was tough to leave off a guy like Duffey who’s already established himself. His 2017 left a lot to be desired, but it was his first year back in the bullpen. Moya and Slegers have both also made it to the majors already and I still think pretty highly of Stewart’s potential. I also like Hackimer and Andrew Vasquez … and Lachlan Wells … and Tyler Wells … and Tyler Watson (among many others). On the verge: Blayne Enlow (22), Brusdar Graterol (22) and Landon Leach (21) among others. Is it possible one of these guys could make it to the majors by then? Absolutely. Would I predict one of them will be established in 2021? No. Berrios had about the best minor league career you could hope for, both in terms of performance and health, and even he didn’t establish himself until his age 23 season. So I’m going to take a conservative outlook on these kids and project them to still be in the minors, but knocking on the door. What do you think? I’m sure the 2021 Twins won’t be completely homegrown, but it’s pretty interesting to see what’s already in the pipeline. That projected rotation I came up with would still be really young. Same with the bullpen, but all those guys I penciled in as relievers figure to have plenty of opportunity to gain Major League experience between now and then. For more on the pitching pipeline, check out he Twins Prospect Handbook. Here is a link to the paperback, which is $15.99, and here is a link to the PDF, which is $10.99. Click here to view the article

Tommy Watkins!

I enjoyed this, thank you. I've been looking at this stuff some, but I'm not certain how to best apply it. For example, it makes me awfully suspicious that Kyle Gibson ranks ahead of Clayton Kershaw in QOPA. I always like to have another data point, but I just don't know how valuable it is.

Ha! Nobody knew I was out there 10 years ago. I made myself very difficult to find because I couldn't stick to one topic or one site for very long. Speaking of days gone by, this feature reminds me a bit of a project from back in 2008. I put together a comprehensive list of all the active Minnesota Sports blogs I could find. I think I got up to something like 80 blogs listed on it at one point. It was kind of a big deal. OK, that's not true at all, but it did make the Aaron Gleeman Link-O-Rama.

YES! This is music to my ears. That's a great article idea. I'd tackle it myself, but I've actually never been to TwinsFest either. Gets me every time. Target Field needs to find a way to incorporate that song into every game. Would be great filler in between innings or something like that.

Me: Hello!?!? Amazon? I'd like to have two copies of the book He's Just Not That Into You sent to the offices at Target Field ... Is this damn thing even on? Alexa: That's now how this works. That's now how any of this works.

Thank you, the plan is to do these each and every week for the foreseeable future. Glad you liked it. Yes, the plan is for this to be a regular feature whether the news cycle is a slow trickle or flowing like a raging river. I'm hoping this will actually be even more valuable to readers once things start to pick up. During the season, there's so much going on here that a lot of great stuff slips through the cracks.

Welcome to the first edition of Twins Weekly. This feature intends to help readers discover anything they may have missed, encourage prospective writers to get active and provide readers an opportunity to offer up requests for content. And let’s have some fun, too. Here goes nothin’ ...Before we get down to business, let’s crank up the old This Week In Baseball theme song to set the mood. Ah, doesn’t get any better than that. Leading off we’re going to take a quick look back at all the articles from the front page in the order they were published. When Twins Daily is really rolling, articles fall of the first page pretty quickly. Here's a second chance to catch anything you may have missed. This edition of Twins Weekly covers Friday, Dec. 29-Thursday, Jan. 4. On Miguel Sano, Al Franken and Believing in Heroes - Tom Froemming The Twins Almanac for Dec 31-Jan 6 - Matt Johnson Five Twins Players’ Resolutions - Cody Christie Gleeman & The Geek, Ep 349: Duke & Sano - John Bonnes The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets: Part 3 (6-10) - Nick Nelson Join Twins Daily At The Diamond Awards! - John Bonnes Will Max Kepler Take the Next Step in 2018? - Tom Froemming The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Assets: Part 4 (1-5) - Nick Nelson Eddie Rosario and the Battle for Plate Discipline - Jamie Cameron Three Prospects To Watch In 2018 - Cody Christie A Look Back: 2011 Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year, Brian Dozier - Seth Stohs What If Miguel Sano Is Really Kyle Schwarber?- Ted Schwerzler Three-Bagger: Darvish Meeting, Sano Fallout, Ice Cold Stove - Cody Christie Community Content You may have noticed there was a debut on the front page this week, Jamie Cameron wrote a great review of Eddie Rosario's progress at the plate. Below are some additional items of note from both the blog area and forums. I've pulled excerpts from each piece in an attempt to hook you in. A New Year for the Twins: Call your shot now! By dougkoebernick “One year ago, I seriously doubt that anyone would have made a New Year's prediction that said the Twins would be in the playoffs in 2017 (if you did let all of us know!). Now here we are on December 31, 2017 and all the avid readers of Twins Daily are looking forward to 2018. What is everyone thinking? What are your hopes and dreams for the new year?” Happy New Years to the 2018 WS Champions By mikelink45 “It is a time to reflect, speculate, lie and hope. We are all equal, we can all sign the big star, we know the next great player is about to be called up from the minors, and we are all undefeated. So, until spring training ends, I nominate the Twins as the 2018 World Series champions. I can revisit that prediction many times in the next few months and like most New Years resolutions and predictions it will be hard to remember anyway.” Ridiculously Premature Enthusiasm for Kernels' 2018 By SD Buhr “Even as the 2017 was winding down, I found myself taking mental inventory of which members of the playoff-bound Kernels might be starting 2018 in Cedar Rapids, as well. Then I started looking at the talent that was on the field for Elizabethton's Appalachian League champion club and projecting a few that were likely to get their first exposure to full-season minor league ball with the Kernels in 2018 All of that informal mental note-making left me feeling pretty optimistic that the Twins would send a pretty competitive group to Cedar Rapids this spring. The Kernels have qualified for the Midwest League postseason in each of the five seasons that Cedar Rapids has been affiliated with the Twins and it was fine to feel pretty good about that streak continuing in 2018.” Baseball Adventure By Luke Albrecht “And here I am, over two months in. We've both got jobs and an apartment in the second city, Santiago de los Caballeros. We've made some friends and are starting to get the hang of things down here. On one of my first nights here I got to watch the last game of the World Series while sharing drinks with the local guys at the corner shop. Most importantly, I've been to over 15 games at 2 of the 6 stadiums. I've seen all of the teams and a really interesting array of prospects, big league regulars, and has- beens. Plenty of future, current and former twins as well. I've also gotten to know a lot more about Dominican culture and it's people at the games.” Mauer’s Future By Lenzy2108 “It's no secret that Joe Mauer is entering the final year of his eight-year, $184 million contract extension signed in 2010. It's also not a secret that Mauer isn't the player he was in 2009 or in the years leading up to that MVP season. What does seem to be a secret, is what thoughts "Falvine" have on Mauer's future past the 2018 season. As a new, "lets try this out", blogger I don't yet have the insider access to pose this question to the Twins FO myself, but Twins Daily has given me a platform to provide what I see are the three options for Joe in 2019 in no particular order.” Diving Into Twins 2018 ZiPS By Ted Schwerzler “Today, Dan Szymborski released the 2018 Minnesota Twins ZiPS projections via Fangraphs. If you aren't familiar with ZiPS, it is simply a projection system (similar to Steamer, KATOH, PECOTA, etc) that attempts to look at potential production for an upcoming season … Rather than dive deeply into the bulk of the projections themselves, I'd like to point out a few key areas of note, as well as adding some commentary.” Community Casting Below are podcast episodes that Twins Daily members have shared either in the blog area or forums. Baseball is Good Ep. 29 (scroll down) By Cory Engelhardt "I had my 29th episode last night. Chad Matthews was my guest last night. He is a HUGE baseball fan who lives in Michigan. We talked MLB, the hall of fame ballot, the AL Central, the future outlook for the Detroit Tigers with Ron Gardenhire at the helm, and how he plans a baseball trip every summer with his son. Please give is a listen!" Midwest Swing ft. Matt Trueblood (scroll down) By Brandon Warne "Matt Trueblood came on to talk Chicago Cubs, Yu Darvish and a bunch of other stuff." T&L Supershow Ep. 52 By Twins and Losses "Happy New Year! We're back with a brand new episode to ring in the new year. This week Dan and Panda talk about TV shows, Dan's complaints with Star Wars fans, and the terrible news regarding Miguel Sano." Calling All Bloggers!!! One of the biggest obstacles to overcome when writing is figuring out just what the heck to write about. Well, here’s a topic to consider … Which Twins player is going to break out in 2018 and why? There’s been plenty of talk about who the Twins might add this offseason, but what about the guys already in the organization? Who’s your pick to click in 2018? This could be anyone from prospects to guys who’ve been around for years. Use stats, use narratives or just listen to your gut. The method is your choice, and there are no wrong answers. Just to be clear, this is simply an idea I'm throwing out there to consider. You can post a blog about whatever topic you'd like. If you're interested in being a regular writer for the site, the blog section is how you get your foot in the door. The only reason you're reading my words right now is because I started my own blog at Twins Daily. Calling All Readers!!! If there's anything you'd love to read about next week, please let us know in the comments. That's all I have for now. Have a wonderful weekend everyone. Click here to view the article

There were a few times I noticed missing data on Baseball Savant/Statcast, but I would have never been searching for data on pop ups. Thanks for adding that. The infield fly ball rates came from FanGraphs, which gets that from Baseball Info Solutions. Assuming that's more trustworthy data, maybe this is a better way to compare those five hitters? Outfield fly ball percent (FB%-IFFB%) Kyle Seager 46.6 (51.6-5.0) Matt Carpenter 46.0 (50.8-4.8) Justin Turner 44.7 (47.8-3.1) Aaron Judge 37.0 (43.2-6.2) Max Kepler 28.0 (39.5-11.5)

I'd agree that over thinking things during game situations is usually a very bad thing for a baseball player. But I sure hope Max is thinking about this kind of stuff and putting in work to make adjustments in the offseason so things come naturally once it's game time. The guys who've invested a lot of thought into this kind of stuff and revolutionized the way they think about hitting are making loads of money right now. Justin Turner was waived, non-tendered and barely hanging on. Thanks in large part to an overhaul in his approach, he signed a $64 million deal last offseason. J.D. Martinez was released by the Astros at one point, now he's the biggest bat on the free agent market. If I was Max Kepler, that kind of stuff would certainly catch my attention.

Sometimes what's logical is also incorrect. For example ... Kyle Seager Avg. Launch Angle: 20.3 degrees IFFB rate: 5.0 percent Matt Carpenter Avg. Launch Angle: 21.6 degrees IFFB rate: 4.8 percent Justin Turner Avg Launch Angle: 18.4 degrees IFFB rate: 3.1 percent Aaron Judge Avg. Launch Angle: 15.8 degrees IFFB rate: 6.2 percent And compare those guys to Max Kepler ... Avg. Launch Angle: 12.7 degrees IFFB rate: 11.5 percent Those four other guys are putting the ball in the air a ton more often than Max, and yet most of them hit half as many infield flies as Kepler. That's illogical, but it's a fact.

Max Kepler would be the most exciting young player on a lot of other teams, but in terms of up and coming Twins, he was somewhat left behind in 2017. It was a great bounce-back season for the team, but for the most part Kepler stayed stagnant. What’s been holding him back?Kepler passes the eye test, but take a glance at the numbers and you see a guy with an OPS+ of just 95. So what’s been missing? Digging deep into the numbers is the only way I have of trying to find answers, so here we go ... Low BABIP Over the 2016 and ‘17 seasons, Kepler had just a .269 batting average on balls in play. That’s seriously suppressed his offensive output. It’s the ninth-worst BABIP among 131 qualified hitters over that stretch. The FanGraphs glossary entry on BABIP is a great resource, and points out two things that would suggest there are reasons to be optimistic about Max turning things around. The average BABIP for hitters is around .300, and you need about 800 balls in play before a hitter’s BABIP stabilizes. Max is approaching that mark, but according to Baseball Savant he’s put 668 balls in play as a big leaguer. A lot of people associate a a low BABIP with bad luck, but I’m not one to automatically make that assumption. There can be concrete reasons behind why a player struggles to post a respectable BABIP. For example, anyone who consistently makes weak contact or doesn’t run well. But does that describe Max? Exit Velocity and Sprint Speed In that same two-year stretch, Kepler had an average exit velocity of 88.7 mph. That’s solid, ranking 121st out of a sample of 355 hitters (top 34.1 percent). So it's not like he's just making a bunch of weak contact. Kepler spent a lot of his time in the minors in center field, but is he really that athletic? Statcast’s sprint speed data would certainly suggest so. Kepler had an average sprint speed of 28.2 mph in 2017, which ranks 63rd among the 333 players who had a minimum of 25 opportunities to be tracked for that metric (top 18.9 percent). If Kepler is consistently hitting the ball hard and runs well, then what’s with that alarming BABIP? Maybe it really is just bad luck, or … Launch Angle Over the 2016 and ‘17 seasons, Kepler’s average launch angle was just 10.7 degrees. That ranked 201st out of the 335 hitters who had a minimum of 250 balls in play (in the bottom 40 percent). The good news is that rate has been on the rise. In 2016, Kepler’s average launch angle of 8.3 degrees was worse than 78.2 percent of hitters. He jumped up to 12.7 degrees last season, which only trailed 43 percent of hitters. Basically, he went from terribly below average to slightly above average in that metric. Despite that improvement, Kepler’s overall numbers stayed pretty much the same. What gives? I do think Max may have been a bit unlucky in 2017, but one thing that didn’t help him was an infield fly ball rate that jumped from eight percent to 11.5. What About Those Platoon Issues? There’s no denying Kepler’s performance against lefties is a concern. Over his career with the Twins, he’s hit just .176/.242/.279 (.520) against port-siders. Something to keep in mind is he’s only had 271 plate appearances against southpaws. In his last full minor league season, Max hit .319/.390/.473 (.863) against lefties. Yes, hitting Southern League pitching is a whole lot different than major league pitching, but it's still pretty early to cast a final judgement on his ability to hit same-sided pitching. It’s easy to forget that 2017 was only Kepler’s age 24 season. Things could click any day now. He’s still trying to figure things out and find some consistency. Here’s a look at his OPS by month in 2017: Download attachment: KeplerGraph.png Put it all together, and I see a guy who’s on the verge of a breakout. What do you think? Am I just seeing something I hope is there? Or is a Max Kepler breakout inevitable? It wasn't only two seasons ago when Max Kepler was featured on the cover of the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. To read more about players like Kepler still in the Twins farm system, pick up a copy of the 2018 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. Click here to view the article

Love this. Twins/Minnesota baseball history is not my strong suit, so I appreciate stuff like this and what you do on the Twins Almanac Twitter account.

I just wanted to jump in first and say I’d appreciate it if everyone would please read the entire article before commenting. These are complicated things to try and write about. I did my best, but I feel like there are some things that could be very easily misunderstood if taken out of context. I’ve shared my feelings and made my points. If you don’t agree with them, that’s okay. Also, it would be great if we would try to keep the conversation on the topic of believing in heroes/looking up to people in today’s climate. The Sano situation is obviously relevant to this discussion, but there are already a number of threads in which you can discuss the specifics of that story if you wish to do so. Thank you.

Maybe it’s appropriate that hero is a four-letter word. Investing in heroes or looking up to powerful men seems to be a foolish thing to do these days. Regardless, I’m still a believer there’s overwhelmingly more good in this world than bad. I wrote an article about that feeling for the Twins Prospect Handbook that I’d like to share.Spend two months thinking about a bunch of minor leaguers who’ve made major sacrifices to chase their dreams and you can’t help but develop a bit of a soft spot. In other words, to quote Moneyball, “It’s hard not to be romantic about baseball.” Right when I was getting wrapped up in some of those feelings, the Al Franken accusations came out. Just like that, I was reminded how admiration can be so dangerous. The article below was included in the Twins Prospect Handbook (which is available in paperback here and as a pdf here). I wrote it in one sitting on Nov. 21. I wanted to make sure to point that out because this was not written in response to the Sano situation, or any of the reactions to it. I also just wanted to make it clear that I’m not comparing the things Sano is accused of doing to the things Franken is accused of doing. I mention them together as it relates to the disappointment they’ve caused, not the severity of the accusations. The article as it appears in the handbook is below (with a few links added). It’s not the wisest business decision to give away something in the book for free, but I felt like this was something worthy of discussion at this time. Athletes As Heroes? Sure, Why Not? Believing in a hero is an increasingly difficult thing to do these days. It seems there’s a never-ending news cycle of stories regarding people we hold in high esteem doing bad things that shatter their public image. Entertainers, artists, politicians, CEOs, religious leaders, athletes – we see this happening everywhere and it’s nothing new. While it may be for the best that we acknowledge we’re all human, and worshiping our heroes was probably always a bad idea, it’s a shame that these developments have created a culture of universal distrust. Things weren’t always this muddy. There was a time in America when things were more black and white, for better or worse. There was a hero and there was a villain. Maybe the hero wasn’t always perfect, but he abided by his code. He did what was right for the simple reason that it was the right thing to do. There’s perhaps no better an icon that represented those ideals than the American cowboy. Much of what the prototypical cowboy character was constructed from was all a myth, but that imagery captured the imagination of Americans for decades. Who are the American folk heroes of today’s age? I’m not talking about the capital “H” type of heroes. The first responders or people like Todd Blyleven, Bert’s son and a former minor leaguer, who put himself in the way of danger to save others during the music festival massacre in Las Vegas this October. No, those are True Heroes, and lucky for the rest of us they’re still around. But in popular culture we seem to have taken a sharp turn away from more relatable, real-life people as our heroes. The cowboys were replaced by superheroes sometime around 1940, but that genre has exploded off the pages of comic books and into the box office in recent years. Also, the line between good and evil is also often blurred, even in superhero stories. But aren’t there any everyday people we can look to for inspiration? Who are the American folk heroes of 2017? Why not minor league baseball players? Hear me out. A lot of people will immediately reject the notion of athletes being heroes. I get it. , the message was ahead of its time. “Just because I dunk a basketball doesn’t mean I should raise your kids,” Barkley said. While I agree with that sentiment – that we shouldn’t look up to athletes based solely on their abilities – it’s a shame it feels almost inappropriate to look up to someone who happens to be an athlete. Like you’d be judged for it. Following prospects, just like searching for heroes, can often feel like a fool’s errand. Only a small percentage of these players will one day grace Target Field. To some people, that’s a good enough reason to completely dismiss the minor leagues. But those who deem only major leaguers worthy of their attention or only superheroes worthy of their admiration are missing out. This book focuses on young men who are chasing their dreams. Some of them are just teenagers who’ve left behind their families and everything they’ve ever known to prove they have what it takes to make it here. What’s more American than that? Some others have graduated from prestigious universities and turned their backs on more gainful employment to pursue a life in baseball for as long as they can. The vast majority of the players in this book make less than minimum wage on average. Even a lot of the guys who didn’t get a college education could be making more money if they gave up their baseball dreams and just worked a regular day job instead. During the season, they work hours and endure travel that would drive lesser man to tears. Days off are few and far between and there really is no offseason. These guys may decompress and get to spend the winters back at home if they choose, but I promise you none of them are just hanging around until spring training. All for the love of the game. If you’re reading this book, you probably have some sense of how things work, but most people assume the typical professional athlete is a pampered millionaire. Sure, there may be a few “bonus babies” in the minor leagues who already have seven figures in the bank, but they’re few and far between. And even they’re not taking private jets from city to city or riding in limousines to the ballpark. Royce Lewis, the No. 1 pick of the 2017 Draft, reportedly put his entire $6.7 million bonus into a trust fund, was living off his minor league salary of roughly $850 a month and living at the team’s dorm-like complex in Fort Myers this season. These are all young men, so that means there’s a real good chance they’ve all done a thing or two that their mothers wouldn’t be proud of. Maybe some of these players even have some character flaws that would be less than desirable, I don’t know. But what I can tell you with confidence is that the majority of them are worthy of your admiration. Bad guys don’t tend to stick around in the minor leagues for long. Most of these players stay out of trouble and give back to their communities – both their hometowns and the cities they pass through on their way up the ranks. A few of them even sprung into action during an emergency situation last spring. Rochester Red Wings manager Mike Quade was involved in a nasty car accident down in Florida during spring training last season. Among the first people to respond to those involved in the wreck were four young men: Twins minor leaguers Caleb Hamilton, Dane Hutcheon, Ben Rortvedt and Austin Tribby. The group checked in on passengers of the other cars involved and even assisted Quade’s girlfriend, who had been injured, out of their car and to safety. We know that story thanks to some great reporting by Phil Miller of the Star Tribune. There are plenty of other feel-good stories. Pitcher Griffin Jax is an active member of the military who used his brief leave of absence from the Air Force to chase his baseball dreams in Cedar Rapids. I’m sure there are plenty of other accounts from the young men in this book that would make Twins fans proud that haven’t been widely disseminated. It could be argued the players in this book have superhuman abilities (if you can throw or hit a 90 mph fastball, you’ve got superpowers in my book). In some ways, these players are just like the rest of us; but their pursuit of Major League dreams hearkens back to an earlier time in our country’s history. These days it’s easy to wonder if there even is such a thing as the American Dream anymore. Well, these ballplayers are living proof that ideal is alive and well. For more information on the Twins Prospect Handbook, Seth provided many more details in this article announcing its release. Click here to view the article

No offense, but how about we get Brandon's Zone Coverage articles and Ted's Off the Baggy articles out of the blog section and added to the "Twins Blogosphere" feed instead? If the blog section is intended for harvesting new voices/writers for Twins Daily, it just doesn't make sense for them to be in there. Don't get me wrong, I definitely think there should be an opportunity for link sharing/promotion to other great Twins content, but would that fit better in the forums? While we're on that topic, I think Puckett's Pond needs to get added to that blogosphere feed, as well.