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Everything posted by Tom Froemming
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I was too. I didn't realize how bad things have gotten the past five or so years. Last year's quickest team (St. Louis at 22.7) would've ranked 20th back in 2011. Last season 11 teams exceeded 24 seconds on average compared to just one team in 2011.
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I'm not sure what the league average is, but here are some more numbers: Twins Avg. pace: 24.8 seconds (eight slowest in baseball) Avg. pitches/game: 145 Cleveland Avg. pace: 24.0 Avg. pitches/game: 142 So a 20-second pitch clock in theory would've saved about 21 minutes from the average Twins-Cleveland game last season. I suspect players will find other ways to slow things down, but a pitch clock could make a huge difference. To find the pitcher pace numbers at Fangraphs, go to the Pitch Info tab and click Plate Discipline. Pace should be listed at the far right.
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This might be a bigger deal than I first imagined. FanGraphs has pitcher pace info. Not a single qualified starter had a pace under 20 seconds last year. The two slowest were Sonny Gray (28.3) and Alex Cobb (27.3). In a game where those two squared off and each threw 100 pitches, the 20-second pitch clock would save 26 minutes. That's even before we apply that same idea to the bullpens, who are even slower. Pedro Baez, Bud Norris and Joaquin Benoit all averaged more than 30 seconds between pitches last year.
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From the sound of Rosenthal's initial article, the players are somewhat concerned about fan backlash. "But some players, believing the new rules will be unpopular with fans and damaging to the game, want to absolve themselves of responsibility while putting the onus on Manfred to deal with any public fallout and unintended consequences, sources said." It's nice to hear the players are taking the fans into consideration, but they also need to realize that we like to watch baseball. Not guys fidgeting with their caps on the mound or adjusting their batting gloves in the box. We don't need to see you and your catcher discuss every single pitch or a guy who's been warming up in the bullpen for 15 minutes go toss another eight pitches on the mound before play resumes.
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Isn't it 2:25 right now? If they're going to make a stink about it, might as well slice it down more than that. I appreciate the fact that Commissioner Manfred is open to tinkering with some things in hopes of making improvements, but if he pisses off the MLBPA over a bunch of petty changes that's really going to be a drag.
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I wouldn't have a problem with a pitch clock and restricted visits but, 1) I'll be pretty upset if this dispute causes some kind of labor issues, and 2) there are better ways to speed up the game. How about cutting the time between half innings? Also, for me the main frustration when a game takes longer is that it ends later. There comes a certain point on a weeknight where I've just gotta pull the plug and head home/go to bed so I'm not a wreck at work the next day. Why not start the games at 6, or at least 6:30, instead of 7:10?
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Welcome to Twins Weekly. This feature intends to help readers discover anything they may have missed, encourage prospective writers to get active and provide readers an opportunity to offer up requests for content. We finally had another move to talk about this week, as the Twins signed reliever Addison Reed.Let’s take a quick look back at all the articles from the front page in the order they were published. This edition of Twins Weekly covers Friday, Jan. 12-Thursday, Jan. 18. The Time For A Buxton Extension Is Now - Nick Nelson Looking Back: Twins Draft Kirby Puckett - Seth Stohs Twins Arbitration Notes - Seth Stohs Rosenthal: Twins Agree to Deal With Addison Reed - Tom Froemming Exploring The Back-End Of The 40-Man Roster - Cody Christie The Twins Almanac for January 14–20 - Matt Johnson Still A Few Dozen Tickets Left To See Joe Nathan At The Winter Meltdown! - John Bonnes Gleeman & The Geek: Ep 351: Addison Reed! - John Bonnes Joe Nathan, Fernando Rodney, And History - Nick Nelson SethSpeaks Podcast (Episode 2) Features 1st-Rounders Lewis, Rooker, Kirilloff - Seth Stohs Twelve's A Crowd: Twins Are Rolling In Relief - Nick Nelson Each Minnesota Team’s Greatest Finish - Cody Christie Not So Fast: Is Eddie Rosario Already Losing a Step? - Tom Froemming Get To Know Twins Third Base Prospect Andrew Bechtold - Seth Stohs Three Twins Breakout Candidates For 2018 - Cody Christie Twins Daily Blogs Below are some additional items of note from the blog area. I've pulled excerpts from each piece in an attempt to hook you in. Why Yu Darvish Will Be Cheaper Than Everyone Thinks By Andrew Thares In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus toward lower tier free agents they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers. New Approach on Signing Yu Darvish By jharaldson My idea is for the Twins to offer Darvish a massively over-market contract for 1 year. Here are the details: -1 year/$40 million -Vesting team option for a second year at $15 million if Darvish does not pitch at least 100 innings. -Majority of the $40 million is in the form of a signing bonus so as to allow a tax favorable payment to Darvish with his current residency being in Texas, a state with no income tax. The Reed Option By Jamie Cameron Reed joins a Twins bullpen shaping up to be vastly different, and potentially much improved over its 2017 iteration. In addition to returning standout Trevor Hildenberger, the Twins have added Fernando Rodney, presumably filling the vacant ninth inning role, and Zach Duke, returning from an injury-plagued 2017 season. In the former trio, the Twins seem to have established a model for the traits they are pursuing in improving their bullpen; inducing ground balls and a lot of strikeouts, hardly a pioneering recipe for success. In Reed however, they have added a pitcher who generates more fly balls, so what about Reed has made him such a consistent a reliable late inning reliever? Mitch Garver & Zack Granite back in CR for Winter Caravan By SD Buhr Garver played in 120 games for the 2014 version of the Kernels and hit for a .298 average. His career has steadily progressed each year since. Granite's time in Cedar Rapids was cut short by injury in 2014, but he returned in 2015 and immediately hit so well that he earned a quick promotion to Class A Advanced Fort Myers. Wanting to make the most of what time I had with each player, I asked them both the same question to kick off the interviews. If you could go back in time, knowing what you know now, and give the Cedar Rapids Kernels version of yourself one piece of advice, what would it be? 2018 Breakout Candidate: Stephen Gonsalves By Lenzy2108 Gonsalves' batted ball data in minors suggests that he is a flyball pitcher, which isn't a huge deal as Target Field is a pitchers park and...well...you know...Buxton/Rosario/Kepler. But what impressed me even a little more is that hitters don't hit him well. At levels where he made 15+ starts his LD% are as follows: 17.2% (2015 High A), 13% (2016 High A), 18.1% (2016 AA), and 19.2% (2016 AA) which are all below the MLB average of 21%. Admittedly, I know this is a little bit of apples and oranges using a MLB average to analyze minor league numbers, but I do think it gives you a gauge for where he's at. Again, Target Field tends to treat fly ball pitchers well especially with our defense...another positive sign that this could be his year. Prospects for 2018 By Physics Guy The 2018 Twins have significantly fewer holes than the 2013 squad. It was a challenge to come up with ten players who have a chance to debut and rank them according to their potential to help this year's team. All players on this list would be making their big league debut. Video of the Week Check out this sweet, sweet tater mashed by Twins pitcher Mudcat Grant in Game 6 of the 1965 World Series. Here's the Baseball-Reference box score for that game. eBay Item of the Week Speaking of the 1965 World Series, take a look at this beaut. This is a Red Wing Pottery commemorative ashtray. The current bid at the time of posting was $51, but that's sure to rise now that it's "as seen on on Twins Weekly." Quite the way to remember a great season ... I guess. Download attachment: TwinsAshtray.png Additional Links Prospect Retrospective: The Career Of Justin Morneau By John Sickels of Minor League Ball I also had a very enthusiastic report from a scout who called Morneau “a young Larry Walker.” I made sure to put him in the book, writing that “Morneau probably won’t stay at catcher because his mobility is limited, but he definitely has enough power to handle first base. He’s a long-term prospect and his grade (C+) reflects that, but I have a good gut feeling about him.” Twins front office brings in the brainpower By Patrick Reusse of the Star Tribune The Twins have added 40-plus positions to the baseball department since Falvey took over and “several million dollars’’ to the staff payroll. They will be adding more jobs over the course of 2018. Should the Twins be worried about Fernando Rodney? By Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press Wednesday marked Rodney’s fourth outing for Escogido in the round-robin playoffs. Just one of those appearances has been scoreless, leaving Rodney with a 15.00 earned run average, six walks and four hits allowed through three innings. Highlights from the 2018 TwinsFest schedule By Maija Varda of Twinkie Town Twins top prospect Royce Lewis will kick off his first TwinsFest experience by being paired with Joe Mauer at an autograph table on Friday from 4:15 pm to 5:15 pm. Will Joe carry on Harmon Killebrew’s legacy by directly chastising Royce for illegible autographs, or will he just passively aggressively comment on how fast Royce signs his name? We all know it will be the latter. Minnesota Twins: 5 best middle infield duos in team history By Nate Palmer of Puckett’s Pond Unfortunately for the past decade or so of Twins baseball, we have often observed some less than stellar middle infields. Several of those middle infields we have experienced have been downright frustrating. A lot of the reason for that frustration begins and ends with the revolving door at shortstop. In fact, 2018 may mark the second time since 2005 that the Twins will have the same Opening Day shortstop as they did the previous year. (Please, please baseball gods don’t turn this into a jinx!) More Podcasts Baseball is Good Episode #31 Ryan Turnquist By Cory Englehardt Ryan is a huge MN sports fan and we will talk baseball, sports, growing up a sports fan and anything else that comes our way. Please give it a listen! MWS: Mike Berardino Reveals His Hall of Fame Ballot By Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage In this episode of Midwest Swing, Brandon catches up with Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) of the St. Paul Pioneer Press to reveal his Hall of Fame ballot. T&L Supershow ep. 53 By Twins and Losses This week Dan and Panda cover all of the recent MLB free agency moves, along with what the Twins have been up to. Then they take a trip to the local retirement home and break out #OldFriend Barry Campbell to talk about the Minnesota Wild, and answer a thousand fan questions that you sent in! Calling All Bloggers!!! One of the biggest obstacles to overcome when writing is figuring out just what the heck to write about. Well, here’s a topic to consider … What was your favorite Twins team? Not necessarily who you think was the best team ever, but which year do you have the fondest memories of or the strongest bond to? Just to be clear, this simply an idea I'm throwing out there to consider. Reminder: Anyone can start a blog at Twins Daily. If you're interested in being a regular writer for the site, the blog section is how you get your foot in the door. The only reason you're reading my words right now is because I started my own blog at Twins Daily. Calling All Readers!!! I don’t want to leave you out, either. If there's anything you'd love to read about next week, please let us know in the comments. OK, that does it. Enjoy TwinsFest and the Winter Meltdown if you're attending. Twins Weekly will continue to be posted every Friday morning at the site. Have a wonderful weekend everyone. Click here to view the article
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Let’s take a quick look back at all the articles from the front page in the order they were published. This edition of Twins Weekly covers Friday, Jan. 12-Thursday, Jan. 18. The Time For A Buxton Extension Is Now - Nick Nelson Looking Back: Twins Draft Kirby Puckett - Seth Stohs Twins Arbitration Notes - Seth Stohs Rosenthal: Twins Agree to Deal With Addison Reed - Tom Froemming Exploring The Back-End Of The 40-Man Roster - Cody Christie The Twins Almanac for January 14–20 - Matt Johnson Still A Few Dozen Tickets Left To See Joe Nathan At The Winter Meltdown! - John Bonnes Gleeman & The Geek: Ep 351: Addison Reed! - John Bonnes Joe Nathan, Fernando Rodney, And History - Nick Nelson SethSpeaks Podcast (Episode 2) Features 1st-Rounders Lewis, Rooker, Kirilloff - Seth Stohs Twelve's A Crowd: Twins Are Rolling In Relief - Nick Nelson Each Minnesota Team’s Greatest Finish - Cody Christie Not So Fast: Is Eddie Rosario Already Losing a Step? - Tom Froemming Get To Know Twins Third Base Prospect Andrew Bechtold - Seth Stohs Three Twins Breakout Candidates For 2018 - Cody Christie Twins Daily Blogs Below are some additional items of note from the blog area. I've pulled excerpts from each piece in an attempt to hook you in. Why Yu Darvish Will Be Cheaper Than Everyone Thinks By Andrew Thares In years past, the available marquee free agents were almost exclusively signed by the richest teams in baseball. In fact, 9 of the 20 richest contracts in MLB history were signed by either the Yankees, Dodgers or Red Sox. However, as MLB front offices are starting to get smarter, they are starting to learn that these big time free agent contracts are almost never worth it in the long run. As a result, teams are starting to shift their focus toward lower tier free agents they can sign to short term, and more reasonably priced contracts, like relievers. New Approach on Signing Yu Darvish By jharaldson My idea is for the Twins to offer Darvish a massively over-market contract for 1 year. Here are the details: -1 year/$40 million -Vesting team option for a second year at $15 million if Darvish does not pitch at least 100 innings. -Majority of the $40 million is in the form of a signing bonus so as to allow a tax favorable payment to Darvish with his current residency being in Texas, a state with no income tax. The Reed Option By Jamie Cameron Reed joins a Twins bullpen shaping up to be vastly different, and potentially much improved over its 2017 iteration. In addition to returning standout Trevor Hildenberger, the Twins have added Fernando Rodney, presumably filling the vacant ninth inning role, and Zach Duke, returning from an injury-plagued 2017 season. In the former trio, the Twins seem to have established a model for the traits they are pursuing in improving their bullpen; inducing ground balls and a lot of strikeouts, hardly a pioneering recipe for success. In Reed however, they have added a pitcher who generates more fly balls, so what about Reed has made him such a consistent a reliable late inning reliever? Mitch Garver & Zack Granite back in CR for Winter Caravan By SD Buhr Garver played in 120 games for the 2014 version of the Kernels and hit for a .298 average. His career has steadily progressed each year since. Granite's time in Cedar Rapids was cut short by injury in 2014, but he returned in 2015 and immediately hit so well that he earned a quick promotion to Class A Advanced Fort Myers. Wanting to make the most of what time I had with each player, I asked them both the same question to kick off the interviews. If you could go back in time, knowing what you know now, and give the Cedar Rapids Kernels version of yourself one piece of advice, what would it be? 2018 Breakout Candidate: Stephen Gonsalves By Lenzy2108 Gonsalves' batted ball data in minors suggests that he is a flyball pitcher, which isn't a huge deal as Target Field is a pitchers park and...well...you know...Buxton/Rosario/Kepler. But what impressed me even a little more is that hitters don't hit him well. At levels where he made 15+ starts his LD% are as follows: 17.2% (2015 High A), 13% (2016 High A), 18.1% (2016 AA), and 19.2% (2016 AA) which are all below the MLB average of 21%. Admittedly, I know this is a little bit of apples and oranges using a MLB average to analyze minor league numbers, but I do think it gives you a gauge for where he's at. Again, Target Field tends to treat fly ball pitchers well especially with our defense...another positive sign that this could be his year. Prospects for 2018 By Physics Guy The 2018 Twins have significantly fewer holes than the 2013 squad. It was a challenge to come up with ten players who have a chance to debut and rank them according to their potential to help this year's team. All players on this list would be making their big league debut. Video of the Week Check out this sweet, sweet tater mashed by Twins pitcher Mudcat Grant in Game 6 of the 1965 World Series. Here's the Baseball-Reference box score for that game. eBay Item of the Week Speaking of the 1965 World Series, take a look at this beaut. This is a Red Wing Pottery commemorative ashtray. The current bid at the time of posting was $51, but that's sure to rise now that it's "as seen on on Twins Weekly." Quite the way to remember a great season ... I guess. Additional Links Prospect Retrospective: The Career Of Justin Morneau By John Sickels of Minor League Ball I also had a very enthusiastic report from a scout who called Morneau “a young Larry Walker.” I made sure to put him in the book, writing that “Morneau probably won’t stay at catcher because his mobility is limited, but he definitely has enough power to handle first base. He’s a long-term prospect and his grade (C+) reflects that, but I have a good gut feeling about him.” Twins front office brings in the brainpower By Patrick Reusse of the Star Tribune The Twins have added 40-plus positions to the baseball department since Falvey took over and “several million dollars’’ to the staff payroll. They will be adding more jobs over the course of 2018. Should the Twins be worried about Fernando Rodney? By Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press Wednesday marked Rodney’s fourth outing for Escogido in the round-robin playoffs. Just one of those appearances has been scoreless, leaving Rodney with a 15.00 earned run average, six walks and four hits allowed through three innings. Highlights from the 2018 TwinsFest schedule By Maija Varda of Twinkie Town Twins top prospect Royce Lewis will kick off his first TwinsFest experience by being paired with Joe Mauer at an autograph table on Friday from 4:15 pm to 5:15 pm. Will Joe carry on Harmon Killebrew’s legacy by directly chastising Royce for illegible autographs, or will he just passively aggressively comment on how fast Royce signs his name? We all know it will be the latter. Minnesota Twins: 5 best middle infield duos in team history By Nate Palmer of Puckett’s Pond Unfortunately for the past decade or so of Twins baseball, we have often observed some less than stellar middle infields. Several of those middle infields we have experienced have been downright frustrating. A lot of the reason for that frustration begins and ends with the revolving door at shortstop. In fact, 2018 may mark the second time since 2005 that the Twins will have the same Opening Day shortstop as they did the previous year. (Please, please baseball gods don’t turn this into a jinx!) More Podcasts Baseball is Good Episode #31 Ryan Turnquist By Cory Englehardt Ryan is a huge MN sports fan and we will talk baseball, sports, growing up a sports fan and anything else that comes our way. Please give it a listen! MWS: Mike Berardino Reveals His Hall of Fame Ballot By Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage In this episode of Midwest Swing, Brandon catches up with Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) of the St. Paul Pioneer Press to reveal his Hall of Fame ballot. T&L Supershow ep. 53 By Twins and Losses This week Dan and Panda cover all of the recent MLB free agency moves, along with what the Twins have been up to. Then they take a trip to the local retirement home and break out #OldFriend Barry Campbell to talk about the Minnesota Wild, and answer a thousand fan questions that you sent in! Calling All Bloggers!!! One of the biggest obstacles to overcome when writing is figuring out just what the heck to write about. Well, here’s a topic to consider … What was your favorite Twins team? Not necessarily who you think was the best team ever, but which year do you have the fondest memories of or the strongest bond to? Just to be clear, this simply an idea I'm throwing out there to consider. Reminder: Anyone can start a blog at Twins Daily. If you're interested in being a regular writer for the site, the blog section is how you get your foot in the door. The only reason you're reading my words right now is because I started my own blog at Twins Daily. Calling All Readers!!! I don’t want to leave you out, either. If there's anything you'd love to read about next week, please let us know in the comments. OK, that does it. Enjoy TwinsFest and the Winter Meltdown if you're attending. Twins Weekly will continue to be posted every Friday morning at the site. Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
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I'd be happy if the Twins traded Baxendale to the Marlins for Kinley. It would be a win-win in my eyes. The Twins would then be able to send Kinley down to the minors and D.J. would have a great opportunity to break into the big leagues. He seems like a great dude and has pitched well in the minors, I'd love to see him get a shot. He'd have a much better chance on a rebuilding club and could be valuable to them as a long reliever/swing man.
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Lol, no. The thing about any data is that it's based on past performance. These sprint speed numbers say what was measured. What comes next is anybody's best guess. The theory I offered up at the end of the article was that Rosario may have been hampered by minor injuries the past two seasons, enough to slow him down but not enough to keep him out of the lineup. If I was to make a prediction, I'd bet his 2018 sprint speed will go up. But again, that's just my guess.
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Sprint speed is measuring speed in terms of feet per second in a player's fastest one-second window. From a Mike Petriello article: "Of course, there are so many plays where a runner is merely jogging to first after having popped up, or trots home easily from third base when a teammate doubles, and those non-competitive plays don't exactly tell us anything about speed, so we had to find a way to exclude those plays and include only plays where maximum effort could be expected. To account for that, we took all batted balls (excluding over-the-fence home runs), and looked at plays where a runner or hitter attempted to advance two or more bases (excluding runners who started on second base and the batted ball was an extra-base hit, as they can often jog home). Of the remaining runs, we'll sort them from slowest to fastest, and take the average of the fastest half. If that sounds complicated, it needs to be, but the results are extremely satisfying." Let's just forget the numbers for a second. In terms of your own evaluation/eye test, would you say Eddie's defense and base running has gotten worse the past two seasons? I would, and given his age, that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. So that's why I threw out the theory that he may have struggled through some injuries we were never made aware of. There were multiple times in the game recaps where I'd point out Rosie taking a really inefficient route to a ball. Could that be because he was missing that top gear and didn't properly account for it when he initially broke to the ball? I think it's possible.
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Eddie Rosario had a huge breakout year in 2017, posting career highs in virtually every offensive category, but he also saw his defensive and base running metrics take a dip for the second-straight season. Is it possible we’re already seeing the decline of Rosario’s athleticism, or could there be something else going on?When Rosario came up to the big leagues in 2015, he was raw as a hitter but both his speed and defense stood out. Fast forward two years, and it appears Rosario has turned a complete 180. Here is Rosario’s three-year trend in sprint speed, UZR/150 and BsR. Everything is trending the wrong direction. Download attachment: RosarioTrend.JPG In terms of sprint speed, Rosario has gone from the 32nd-fastest player in baseball in 2015 to 150th last season. That’s a drop from comfortably inside the top 10 percent to outside the upper third of all players. He’s lost exactly one foot per second on average over the past two seasons, which can be a huge difference when you’re tracking down fly balls in the outfield. Below is a look at Rosario’s sprint speed the past three seasons compared to some of his teammates. He went from easily being the second-fastest player in this group to slipping down to fourth. Download attachment: TwinsGraph.JPG And here’s a look at Rosario’s numbers in relation to a handful of other players around his same age. Download attachment: MLBSpeed.JPG So what do we make of all of this? Well, the pessimistic approach would be to conclude that Rosario’s athleticism is already eroding. But he’s still only 26-years-old, so I find that a little hard to believe. Is it possible that Rosario has played big parts of the past two seasons with undisclosed minor leg injuries that have sapped him of some of that speed? The only time Rosario has been on the DL was when he fractured his thumb in late 2016, but he’s surely played through a few scratches and strains. What do you make of Rosario’s defensive and base running declines? Related: Minnesota’s Base Running Resurgence Eddie Rosario And The Battle For Plate Discipline Click here to view the article
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When Rosario came up to the big leagues in 2015, he was raw as a hitter but both his speed and defense stood out. Fast forward two years, and it appears Rosario has turned a complete 180. Here is Rosario’s three-year trend in sprint speed, UZR/150 and BsR. Everything is trending the wrong direction. In terms of sprint speed, Rosario has gone from the 32nd-fastest player in baseball in 2015 to 150th last season. That’s a drop from comfortably inside the top 10 percent to outside the upper third of all players. He’s lost exactly one foot per second on average over the past two seasons, which can be a huge difference when you’re tracking down fly balls in the outfield. Below is a look at Rosario’s sprint speed the past three seasons compared to some of his teammates. He went from easily being the second-fastest player in this group to slipping down to fourth. And here’s a look at Rosario’s numbers in relation to a handful of other players around his same age. So what do we make of all of this? Well, the pessimistic approach would be to conclude that Rosario’s athleticism is already eroding. But he’s still only 26-years-old, so I find that a little hard to believe. Is it possible that Rosario has played big parts of the past two seasons with undisclosed minor leg injuries that have sapped him of some of that speed? The only time Rosario has been on the DL was when he fractured his thumb in late 2016, but he’s surely played through a few scratches and strains. What do you make of Rosario’s defensive and base running declines? Related: Minnesota’s Base Running Resurgence Eddie Rosario And The Battle For Plate Discipline
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Why Yu Darvish Will Be Cheaper Than Everyone Thinks
Tom Froemming commented on Andrew Thares's blog entry in Rounding Third
Is there any reason why he shouldn't expect to beat Zack Greinke's 6y/$206.5 or David Price's 7y/$217m?- 14 comments
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Why Yu Darvish Will Be Cheaper Than Everyone Thinks
Tom Froemming commented on Andrew Thares's blog entry in Rounding Third
I enjoyed reading this. I don't have any more/better information that you would, but ... If Darvish can't get more than $135 million, the MLBPA may want to consider filing a grievance. The game is in as good a place financially as it's ever been. If contracts for the top free agents suddenly start going down, I think there should be a real concern from the player's perspective. Again, I'm not saying there's no way Darvish signs in your predicted range, just that if he did it would be a pretty big red flag.- 14 comments
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2018 Breakout Candidate: Stephen Gonsalves
Tom Froemming commented on Matthew Lenz's blog entry in Musings from Twins Territory
This is awesome! It's so hard to know how a guy is gonna handle his first cup of coffee, but I could see Gonsalves as the type who could successfully battle through some struggles even if he doesn't hit the ground running. It seems like he likes to be challenged and wouldn't shy away from trying to make adjustments on the fly if any deficiencies are spotted. If the Twins make a big addition to the rotation, things are going to look pretty packed, especially with May coming back. But there are always injuries and other things that open up doors.- 6 comments
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Yeah, this looks like a pretty incredible deal. Reed is three years younger than Davis, and here are their numbers the past three years combined: Davis 169.1 IP 4.3 WAR 1.65 ERA 1.00 WHIP 3.19 K:BB 3.05 SIERA Reed 209.2 IP 4.5 WAR 2.66 ERA 1.10 WHIP 4.64 K:BB 3.14 SIERA I think their performance is a lot closer than a lot of people would've guessed, and I love that huge advantage Reed has in K:BB ratio. Straight up, of course you'd take Davis over Reed, but on the deals they signed Reed is the much better value in my eyes.
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Most of the attention this offseason has been dedicated to the Twins' pursuit of top starting pitching options, but it appears they just made a significant upgrade to the bullpen. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Twins have agreed to a contract with Addison Reed, who was the third-ranked relief pitcher on the market per MLB Trade Rumors.According to Rosenthal's report, which has since been confirmed by several other reputable sources on Twitter, the two sides have agreed to a two-year pact. Reed is from California, but spent the first three seasons of his career with the Chicago White Sox. Here's a look at his numbers from Baseball-Reference: Download attachment: Reed Numbers.png Reed is the third relief pitcher the Twins have signed to a major league deal this offseason, joining Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke. Once the deal has been made official, the Twins will need to make room for Reed on their 40-man roster. It appeared in mid-December that Reed was Philadelphia bound, but a deal never was finalized and the Phillies signed Tommy Hunter instead. There have been three relievers signed to three-year deals, all by the Colorado Rockies (Davis at $52 million, Bryan Shaw at $27 million and Jake McGee at $27 million), but it appears the Twins have been rewarded for waiting out the market. Reed's deal comes in just over what Pat Neshek got from the Phillies (two-years, $16.25 million) and just behind what Juan Nicasio got from the Mariners (two-years, $17 million). Why were the Twins able to sign Reed to such a modest deal? That's a great question. Taking a look at his velocity numbers over at Brooks Baseball, there doesn't seem to be any cause for concern. Download attachment: Reedmph.png Here's Reed's average fastball velocity the past four seasons: 93.33, 93.27, 93.22 and 92.93. So he has lost 0.4 mph over that span, but his swinging strike rate of 13.7 percent in 2017 was the highest he's posted since his rookie year. What do you think about this signing and the overall upgrades made to the bullpen? Click here to view the article
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According to Rosenthal's report, which has since been confirmed by several other reputable sources on Twitter, the two sides have agreed to a two-year pact. https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/952241316288643073?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Em5%7Ctwgr%5Eemail%7Ctwcon%5E7046%7Ctwterm%5E1 UPDATE: Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported the deal at two-years, $16.75 million on Twitter. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Reed would fetch a four-year, $36 million deal. In that same piece, the site ranked Reed 16th among its top 50 free agents, third among relievers, trailing only Wade Davis and Greg Holland. According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Reed turned down longer-term deals in order to come to Minnesota. https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/952245893226516480?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Em5%7Ctwgr%5Eemail%7Ctwcon%5E7046%7Ctwterm%5E1 Reed is from California, but spent the first three seasons of his career with the Chicago White Sox. Here's a look at his numbers from Baseball-Reference: Reed is the third relief pitcher the Twins have signed to a major league deal this offseason, joining Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke. Once the deal has been made official, the Twins will need to make room for Reed on their 40-man roster. It appeared in mid-December that Reed was Philadelphia bound, but a deal never was finalized and the Phillies signed Tommy Hunter instead. There have been three relievers signed to three-year deals, all by the Colorado Rockies (Davis at $52 million, Bryan Shaw at $27 million and Jake McGee at $27 million), but it appears the Twins have been rewarded for waiting out the market. Reed's deal comes in just over what Pat Neshek got from the Phillies (two-years, $16.25 million) and just behind what Juan Nicasio got from the Mariners (two-years, $17 million). Why were the Twins able to sign Reed to such a modest deal? That's a great question. Taking a look at his velocity numbers over at Brooks Baseball, there doesn't seem to be any cause for concern. Here's Reed's average fastball velocity the past four seasons: 93.33, 93.27, 93.22 and 92.93. So he has lost 0.4 mph over that span, but his swinging strike rate of 13.7 percent in 2017 was the highest he's posted since his rookie year. What do you think about this signing and the overall upgrades made to the bullpen?
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New Approach on Signing Yu Darvish
Tom Froemming commented on jharaldson's blog entry in Back Office Twins Baseball Blog
I'd guess Darvish says no, but he'd certainly have to think about it. Looks like he's already made $56m in the states, so maybe that means security would be less of a concern. -
Welcome to Twins Weekly. This feature intends to help readers discover anything they may have missed, encourage prospective writers to get active and provide readers an opportunity to offer up requests for content. The big news at the site this week was Seth’s return to podcasting, which featured a star-studded lineup of guests.Let’s take a quick look back at all the articles from the front page in the order they were published. This edition of Twins Weekly covers Friday, Jan. 5-Thursday, Jan. 11. The Twins Almanac for January 7–13 - Matt Johnson Projecting The 2021 Twins Line-Up - Cody Christie Gleeman & The Geek: Ep 350 Mega Mailbag - John Bonnes The Return of Seth Speaks (The Podcast) - Seth Stohs The guest list included Gopher baseball player Luke Petterson, LaMonte Wade, Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Wells and Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline. Why I Believe The Twins Are Going To Sign Yu Darvish - Nick Nelson Justin Morneau To Retire, Join Twins Front Office- Cody Christie Winter Meltdown And Diamond Award Tickets Available Now! - John Bonnes Projecting the 2021 Twins Pitching Staff - Tom Froemming Hey Joe, What's Next? - Ted Schwerzler 2018 Minnesota Twins Roster Projections - The Catchers - Seth Stohs Minnesota’s Base Running Resurgence - Cody Christie Did Nick Gordon’s Second Half Turn Him From Prospect to Suspect? - Tom Froemming Hard Work Jorge Pays Off - Ted Schwerzler Twins Daily Blogs Below are some additional items of note from both the blog area. I've pulled excerpts from each piece in attempt to hook you in. On acquiring Yu Darvish or Gerrit Cole By Hosken Bombo Disco “Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.” HildenWho? By Jamie Cameron “Hildenberger had good MiLB numbers, but I had no idea how dominant he was. In any MiLB stint in which Hildenberger pitched at least 20 innings, he never had a K/9 of under 9.6, and never had a GB% lower than 53%. He topped out at 11.8 K/9 at low A. His GB% peaked at 67%. To put that into some major league perspective, only 4 guys who threw at least 40 innings in 2017 had a GB% higher than 67% (one of whom, Scott Alexander, the Dodgers saw fit to trade for as a replacement for Tony Watson in their bullpen). Granted, Hildenberger was at high A, but the signs were promising. Hildenberger had consistently shown an ability to do two things which in combination can make a reliever elite; get lots of strikeouts and induce a ton of ground balls.” Minnesota Jumeaux – Eh! By mikelink45 “With Justin Morneau returning to Minnesota it just seems to fulfill destiny. The Canadians have only two teams – Toronto (officially) and that offshoot of Ontario called Minnesota with the Twins (Jumeaux). Canada should celebrate both and we should take pride in straddling the border with both temperature and hockey to welcome our northern kin. Morneau was a natural and Colorado was just a blip on his resume. Now he is coming back home. Welcome Justin – you can let your o’s get longer and slip in an Eh! Or two.” Understanding the "Quality of Pitch" (QOP/QOPA/QOPV) Statistics By Lenzy2108 “I've spent a lot of time over the last few days reading about a relatively new statistic called "quality of pitch" (QOP), which assigns a numerical value to each pitch a pitcher throws. The values can then averaged together to come up with a pitchers average quality of pitch (QOPA) or you can look at a quality of pitch set of values (QOPV) as another tool to measure the performance of a pitcher. The purpose of this post is to provide a simple overview of this data as it may be referenced in future articles.” Additional Links Minnesota Twins: Paul Molitor’s New Year’s Resolutions By Benjamin Chase of Puckett’s Pond “The most obvious example of this was lefty Taylor Rogers. He made 69 appearances on the season, 19 of them on back-to-back days. However, early in the season, Molitor drastically overused his left arm, using him for three days in a row 3 times and five days in a row once all before the All-Star break. Predictably, Rogers had a rough time coming out of the All Star break, making 6 appearances between July 22nd and August 5th, throwing 4 innings, with a 22.50 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, and allowing 3 home runs (he allowed only 6 on the ENTIRE season).” Twins had planned to call up ByungHo Park in 2017 By Maija Varda of Twinkie Town “Though news came out awhile ago that ByungHo Park would be returning to South Korea to play baseball in 2018, he actually only arrived back in his home country yesterday. Since it was his first time back, Park held a press conference about his return with his new/old team, the Nexen Heroes. He didn’t really say that much new about the Twins or his time in the US, but one small comment stuck out to me: apparently, at the end of spring training in 2017, the Twins told Park they wanted him to start the season in the minors, but that they planned to call him up later that April.” Podcasts Minnesota Sports Weekly Episode 52 By Travis Aune/Chad Smith I had the pleasure of chatting with the guys from Minnesota Sports Weekly. We talked about everything from the prospect handbook/rankings to Yu Darvish. I believe I'm welcomed on to the show at around the hour mark. They led off the show with Josh Whetzel, who is the radio guy for Triple-A Rochester. Baseball is Good Episode 30 By Cory Engelhardt “Shea McGinnity is a big time baseball fan who lives in Kansas City, MO. We will talk baseball, Minnesota Twins, and anything else that comes our way.” The Show About the Show Episode 2 (airs Friday night at 7 pm) By Devlin Clark Before we close out the podcast segment, I just wanted to give a heads up that Devlin will be recording his first full-length episode with special guest and former Twins pitcher Cole De Vries later this evening. Calling All Bloggers!!! One of the biggest obstacles to overcome when writing is figuring out just what the heck to write about. Well, here’s a topic to consider … TwinsFest stories and tips. This idea was offered up in the comments last week by TD member IndianaTwin. Anybody have good stories to tell about TwinsFest? What’s your most memorable moment or favorite person you’ve met at the event? Do you have any pro tips to pass along for first-time TwinsFesters? Just to be clear, this simply an idea I'm throwing out there to consider. Just a reminder, anyone can start a blog at Twins Daily. If you're interested in being a regular writer for the site, the blog section is how you get your foot in the door. The only reason you're reading my words right now is because I started my own blog at Twins Daily. Calling All Readers!!! I don’t want to leave you out, either. If there's anything you'd love to read about next week, please let us know in the comments. Twins Weekly will continue to be posted every Friday morning at the site. Have a wonderful weekend everyone. Click here to view the article
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Let’s take a quick look back at all the articles from the front page in the order they were published. This edition of Twins Weekly covers Friday, Jan. 5-Thursday, Jan. 11. The Twins Almanac for January 7–13 - Matt Johnson Projecting The 2021 Twins Line-Up - Cody Christie Gleeman & The Geek: Ep 350 Mega Mailbag - John Bonnes The Return of Seth Speaks (The Podcast) - Seth Stohs The guest list included Gopher baseball player Luke Petterson, LaMonte Wade, Stephen Gonsalves, Tyler Wells and Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline. Why I Believe The Twins Are Going To Sign Yu Darvish - Nick Nelson Justin Morneau To Retire, Join Twins Front Office - Cody Christie Winter Meltdown And Diamond Award Tickets Available Now! - John Bonnes Projecting the 2021 Twins Pitching Staff - Tom Froemming Hey Joe, What's Next? - Ted Schwerzler 2018 Minnesota Twins Roster Projections - The Catchers - Seth Stohs Minnesota’s Base Running Resurgence - Cody Christie Did Nick Gordon’s Second Half Turn Him From Prospect to Suspect? - Tom Froemming Hard Work Jorge Pays Off - Ted Schwerzler Twins Daily Blogs Below are some additional items of note from both the blog area. I've pulled excerpts from each piece in attempt to hook you in. On acquiring Yu Darvish or Gerrit Cole By Hosken Bombo Disco “Now compare Cole to Darvish. Fangraphs projects Cole for 3.8 fWAR in 2018, while Darvish is projected only for 3.6 fWAR in 2018. Consider that Darvish’s contract will fetch more than $20 million per season for each of the next five or six seasons; Cole will not earn $20 million over the next two seasons together. Moreover, Cole might be motivated to pitch his best in order to increase his value in free agency following 2019.” HildenWho? By Jamie Cameron “Hildenberger had good MiLB numbers, but I had no idea how dominant he was. In any MiLB stint in which Hildenberger pitched at least 20 innings, he never had a K/9 of under 9.6, and never had a GB% lower than 53%. He topped out at 11.8 K/9 at low A. His GB% peaked at 67%. To put that into some major league perspective, only 4 guys who threw at least 40 innings in 2017 had a GB% higher than 67% (one of whom, Scott Alexander, the Dodgers saw fit to trade for as a replacement for Tony Watson in their bullpen). Granted, Hildenberger was at high A, but the signs were promising. Hildenberger had consistently shown an ability to do two things which in combination can make a reliever elite; get lots of strikeouts and induce a ton of ground balls.” Minnesota Jumeaux – Eh! By mikelink45 “With Justin Morneau returning to Minnesota it just seems to fulfill destiny. The Canadians have only two teams – Toronto (officially) and that offshoot of Ontario called Minnesota with the Twins (Jumeaux). Canada should celebrate both and we should take pride in straddling the border with both temperature and hockey to welcome our northern kin. Morneau was a natural and Colorado was just a blip on his resume. Now he is coming back home. Welcome Justin – you can let your o’s get longer and slip in an Eh! Or two.” Understanding the "Quality of Pitch" (QOP/QOPA/QOPV) Statistics By Lenzy2108 “I've spent a lot of time over the last few days reading about a relatively new statistic called "quality of pitch" (QOP), which assigns a numerical value to each pitch a pitcher throws. The values can then averaged together to come up with a pitchers average quality of pitch (QOPA) or you can look at a quality of pitch set of values (QOPV) as another tool to measure the performance of a pitcher. The purpose of this post is to provide a simple overview of this data as it may be referenced in future articles.” Additional Links Minnesota Twins: Paul Molitor’s New Year’s Resolutions By Benjamin Chase of Puckett’s Pond “The most obvious example of this was lefty Taylor Rogers. He made 69 appearances on the season, 19 of them on back-to-back days. However, early in the season, Molitor drastically overused his left arm, using him for three days in a row 3 times and five days in a row once all before the All-Star break. Predictably, Rogers had a rough time coming out of the All Star break, making 6 appearances between July 22nd and August 5th, throwing 4 innings, with a 22.50 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, and allowing 3 home runs (he allowed only 6 on the ENTIRE season).” Twins had planned to call up ByungHo Park in 2017 By Maija Varda of Twinkie Town “Though news came out awhile ago that ByungHo Park would be returning to South Korea to play baseball in 2018, he actually only arrived back in his home country yesterday. Since it was his first time back, Park held a press conference about his return with his new/old team, the Nexen Heroes. He didn’t really say that much new about the Twins or his time in the US, but one small comment stuck out to me: apparently, at the end of spring training in 2017, the Twins told Park they wanted him to start the season in the minors, but that they planned to call him up later that April.” Podcasts Minnesota Sports Weekly Episode 52 By Travis Aune/Chad Smith I had the pleasure of chatting with the guys from Minnesota Sports Weekly. We talked about everything from the prospect handbook/rankings to Yu Darvish. I believe I'm welcomed on to the show at around the hour mark. They led off the show with Josh Whetzel, who is the radio guy for Triple-A Rochester. Baseball is Good Episode 30 By Cory Engelhardt “Shea McGinnity is a big time baseball fan who lives in Kansas City, MO. We will talk baseball, Minnesota Twins, and anything else that comes our way.” The Show About the Show Episode 2 (airs Friday night at 7 pm) By Devlin Clark Before we close out the podcast segment, I just wanted to give a heads up that Devlin will be recording his first full-length episode with special guest and former Twins pitcher Cole De Vries later this evening. Calling All Bloggers!!! One of the biggest obstacles to overcome when writing is figuring out just what the heck to write about. Well, here’s a topic to consider … TwinsFest stories and tips. This idea was offered up in the comments last week by TD member IndianaTwin. Anybody have good stories to tell about TwinsFest? What’s your most memorable moment or favorite person you’ve met at the event? Do you have any pro tips to pass along for first-time TwinsFesters? Just to be clear, this simply an idea I'm throwing out there to consider. Just a reminder, anyone can start a blog at Twins Daily. If you're interested in being a regular writer for the site, the blog section is how you get your foot in the door. The only reason you're reading my words right now is because I started my own blog at Twins Daily. Calling All Readers!!! I don’t want to leave you out, either. If there's anything you'd love to read about next week, please let us know in the comments. Twins Weekly will continue to be posted every Friday morning at the site. Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
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Just for reference, here's the full list of pitchers who made more than five MLB starts in their age 22 or younger season in 2017: German Marquez, COL, 29 starts Antonio Senzatela, COL, 20 starts Lucas Giolito, CWS, 7 starts I wouldn't be shocked if Enlow/Graterol/Leach reach the majors in 2021, but I doubt they'd be up for anything more than an emergency spot start/September callup.
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