Tom Froemming

The Twins may lead the league in candidates for Comeback Player of the Year. Up and down the roster and all over the diamond you can find guys coming off disappointing seasons who you can pin high hopes on for 2019. That being the case, Trevor Hildenberger has gone somewhat overlooked. It’s easy to forget just how good he was for the Twins prior to his second-half struggles last year.Hildenberger pitched to a 2.66 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 19.4 K-BB% in the first 81 1/3 innings of his big league career. He gave up multiple runs in just five of his 73 appearances over that stretch. Unfortunately, the memory of Hildy that lingers on through this offseason is his final 33 2/3 innings of last year. Trevor had a 9.36 ERA, 1.93 WHIP and 11.6 K-BB% and gave up multiple runs in 10 of his 37 games of that stretch. It was an unbelievable downswing. On the surface, it may not seem like Hildenberger’s workload went up all that much from 2017 to ‘18. He pitched nearly the same number of innings, but went from appearing in 58 games between the majors and minors two seasons ago to 73 in 2018. That may not seem like a big difference when stretched across a full season, but fewer off days means less rest, which means less recovery. That applies to both the physical and mental side of the game. There were only 10 pitchers who appeared in more games than Hildenberger in 2018. You have to go back to 2010 to find the last Twins pitcher who appeared in more than 73 games (Matt Guerrier, 74). Joe Nathan only appeared in 73 games once as a Twin, his first season with the club. Glen Perkins never reached that mark, topping out at 70. Even “Everyday” Eddie Guardado only topped 73 outings twice in his 17-year career. Hildenberger joined Kris Atteberry on this week’s edition of the Twins Hot Stove show, which you can find on the podcast page at the team’s official site. One of the topics they discussed was that heavier workload. “I think I can take a lot away from 2018,” Hildenberger said. “There were some ups and there were some downs, I think I was a little less consistent in the second half. You know, 73 appearances was a lot. I took a couple weeks off and then I got right back after it in October and I’ve been training to get my body ready for another long season and another heavy workload.” In addition to getting prepared for the long slog of the regular season, Hildy is also tinkering with the idea of giving hitters even more different looks. “In terms of specifics, I think fastball command is really big for me, I think everything starts off that,” Hildenberger said. “If I can locate my sinker down in the zone to both sides of the plate, working it in and out, and then maybe finding another offspeed pitch to throw from over the top so they don’t just sit dead red when I come over the top with a fastball.” Hildenberger threw from that over the top arm slot 6.1 percent of the time in 2018, a grand total of 71 pitches. Among those, 66 were four-seam fastballs and five were changeups, per the data available on Baseball Savant. On Jeremy Hefner’s Role The other guest on this week’s Twins Hot Stove Show was Jeremy Hefner, who is transitioning from advance scout to taking over for Eddie Guardado as the bullpen coach. Well, sort of. The Twins are updating things, and Hefner’s official title is actually assistant pitching coach. “The game is changing ... you don’t have one guy in charge of the bullpen and one guy in charge of the starters,” Hefner said. “Me and Wes (Johnson) are going to tag team. These are our guys and our group and we’re going to work together to get the most out of them.” Hefner had high praise for his new coaching collaborator. “Wes is great. His knowledge base on bio-mechanics, on pitch usage, on TrackMan stuff, on relations with a pitcher — he’s had a long track record of being able to execute on all of those things," Hefner said. “I’ve learned a ton from him. He’s going to be great for the Twins.” Click here to view the article

Is there a point where you have too much variance? The Twins entered this offseason with a bunch of players coming off down seasons and added Schoop to that mix. Would it be better to try and get a low-floor guy for the bullpen? Or just keep doubling down on bounce back candidates? I'm not sure what the right answers are to those questions, but those are some things the front office should be considering with any other potential additions.

It was so weird when they tried to work Cuddyer in as a second baseman while he was still also trying to learn how to hit major league pitching. Versatility is great, but I think you can definitely find yourself in a place where you're asking a guy to do too many things at once. Kinda like asking Miguel Sano to play outfield ... Anyway, it was very satisfying to see Cuddy breakout/establish himself in that great 2006 season for the Twins. There were so many amazing things going on that summer. Cuddyer did a lot of things well, fit into the big picture nicely between all the lefty hitters back then and seems like a great guy to be around.

And Rogers ranked ninth in reliever WPA, so I think we're on the same page about him either way

Disagree. Along with a number of things WPA doesn't account for, fWAR does factor in leverage index.

Bullpens are so weird. The San Diego Padres ranked 29th in reliever fWAR at 0.8 in 2017, then jumped all the way up to second in 2018 with 8.7 fWAR. How did they do it? Well, they traded away two of their best bullpen guys on July 19. Wait ... what!?!?!? No marquee additions, no changes to the pitching or bullpen coach and they traded away Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. Yet their bullpen ERA went from 4.49 to 3.53 and the FIP went from 4.69 to 3.31. How did that happen? Well, a lot of the kind of stuff that's mentioned in this article. Obviously, that's probably not the best business model to emulate, but bullpens are weird.

It's pretty funny last year the Twins signed one of these type guys and it ended up being a critical mistake that they replaced him with a much higher profile signing. How different may have things gone if the Twins had kept Anibal Sanchez instead of signing Lance Lynn? Never would have guessed in a million years I'd be asking that question at the time of that signing. I literally laughed why they signed Anibal, who had been pretty much the worst pitcher in baseball for multiple seasons. Obviously those two guys are both at the extreme ends of potential outcomes, but it's an interesting thing to look back upon.

Ervin Santana on a no-risk, nothing promised deal sounds better and better to me all the time. Give him a modest deal, if the finger is still a problem and the velocity is still down, you just cut him loose. Lots of potential upside there. The big reason I could see the Twins not being interested is they seem to be motivated to turnover the leadership. Ervin had some not so professional things to say around the deadline, especially coming from a veteran guy who was hurt the majority of the season. They might not want to saddle Rocco & Co. with any more baggage from the previous year.

As a way to both look back at a great minor league season and celebrate the release of the 2019 Twins Prospect Handbook, I’m shining the spotlight on a few players in the system. Next up is Royce Lewis. The 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook is available in paperback for $17.99 or as an eBook for $12.99.Before we get to Lewis, here's a quick look at the players we've featured so far in this series: Jhoan Duran Alex Kirilloff Lewis Thorpe Each of the highlight packages in this series focuses on a specific aspect of a player's game or homes in on a particular performance. When it comes to Lewis, there aren't many questions. He was the No. 1 overall pick and is a consensus top-10 prospect in all of baseball. If there's anything up for debate, however, it's his defense. Of course, you could say this about pretty much every shortstop ever. There is an incredibly high bar set for shortstop defense, and rightly so. It's very difficult to try to get a good read on a player's defense. Loads of advanced metrics have become available that have shined a light on fielding at the Major League level, but there's nothing available for minor leaguers. Well, at least publicly. So let's take a look at some video. The last Twins shortstop to earn at least three straight Opening Day starts was Cristian Guzman (1999-2004), so this is a team that could use some stability at the position. Will Lewis be the man to provide that steady presence? It's too early to tell, but I wouldn't bet against it at this point. So, now that you've seen a little of Royce's defense, let me know what you think. I can't quite put my finger on it, but there is something about his style that strikes me as somewhat unorthodox. Still, he's also showing all the raw skills you'd want in a shortstop, so I see no reason to move him off the position anytime soon. Lewis is just one of more than 160 players featured in the Prospect Handbook.We had a ton of fun putting the book together and we’re really excited for people to read it. Recognizing these minor league players for their efforts and ability is a big motivating factor in the project, so we would love for you to pick up a copy. Download attachment: Handbook.jpg Click here for more information on the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook Click here to view the article

What about Adam Ottavino? Even ignoring all the health problems he's had, the guy just posted a 5.06 ERA (5.16 FIP) in 2017. Brad Brach has never posted an ERA over 3.78 (which came is rookie season) and his FIP hasn't been over 3.90 in the five seasons since leaving San Diego. Brach is also a bit younger than Ottavino, yet Otto was projected to get 3$30MM and Brach 2/$12MM.

My main point is top dollar doesn't necessarily mean you're getting top results in the bullpen market. I agree that you do have to address the bullpen one way or another. I don't love the idea of crossing your fingers that Moya/Vasquez/Curtiss blossoms or you can successfully convert Romero or another starter. If that happens, great! But you shouldn't be banking on it. I do feel the Twins have enough depth in the system to trade some prospects for an established reliever who has multiple years of team control and there's no reason to think you couldn't pull off a trade over the offseason. I'm thinking maybe like a Mychal Givens or Archie Bradley type. As far as free agency goes, consider this: 2017-18 ERA 2.72 Adam Warren 3.03 Oliver Perez 3.21 Hunter Strickland 3.38 Brad Brach 3.43 Justin Wilson 3.50 Adam Ottavino 3.82 Cody Allen 2017-18 FIP 2.79 Oliver Perez 3.45 Adam Warren 3.51 Justin Wilson 3.63 Brad Brach 3.72 Adam Ottavino 3.87 Cody Allen 3.97 Hunter Strickland Despite those numbers, I think the Twins signing Ottavino and Allen to nice multi-year deals would garner a ton more excitement than if they nabbed say Warren and Perez or Brach and Wilson on modest one-year deals.

Great stuff here Nick. I think Gonsalves might be the guy who has the most to gain in working with a tech-savvy pitching instructor like Wes Johnson. It seems possible a mechanical adjustment or work on better pitch tunneling could go a long way for a pitcher like Stephen. As far has his velocity goes, most Twins fans would have been happy if they signed Patrick Corbin or went out and got Dallas Keuchel. In terms of average perceived velocity on their four-seam fastballs, Gonsalves (90.76 mph) actually ranks ahead of both Corbin (90.69) and Keuchel (89.46). So it's not like his lack of elite velocity disqualifies him from potentially becoming a very good MLB pitcher.

Yeah, but which of those postseason teams built up their bullpen via free agency? Ask the Rockies how overspending on a bullpen worked out. Biggest AAV deals to RPs last offseason Wade Davis COL 4.12 ERA 65.1 IP Greg Holland STL 7.92 ERA in 25 IP (released) Brandon Morrow CHC 1.47 ERA in 30.2 IP Bryan Shaw COL 5.93 ERA in 54.2 IP Tommy Hunter PHI 3.80 ERA in 64 IP Jake McGee COL 6.49 ERA in 51.1 IP Juan Nicasio SEA 6.00 ERA in 42 IP Addison Reed MIN 4.50 ERA in 56 IP Ick. The only one of those guys who pitched well was Morrow, and even he missed a big chunk of the season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Twins are indeed finalizing a deal with Parker, saying it's a one-year deal worth slightly more than $3 million. The Twins certainly have the extra money to spend, but I'll happily take Parker on this deal over Herrera on the deal he got from the White Sox (two-years, $18 mil guaranteed).

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on Twitter that right-handed relief pitcher Blake Parker is expected to sign soon and that the landing spot is believed to be the Twins. Parker, 33, was non-tendered by the Angels earlier this offseason. He pitched to a 2.90 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and saved 22 games for the Angels the past two seasons.UPDATE: Jeff Passan of ESPN confirmed the Twins are indeed finalizing a deal with Parker. His sources say it's a one-year deal worth slightly more than $3 million. Here's what I wrote about Parker in the non-tender tracker we ran here at Twins Daily on Nov. 30: Blake Parker will be non-tendered by the Angels, according to Mark Feinsand. This is the most surprising one so far in my book. Parker has pitched to a 2.90 ERA in 138 appearances over the past two seasons with the Angels, racking up 22 saves in the process. He also has an impressive 1.03 WHIP and 4.46 K:BB ratio over that same stretch (10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9). Parker, 33, was projected to make a modest $3.1 million. And I added this in my recap of the day's activity: Final Thoughts Some of these guys could make a lot of sense for the Twins. Blake Parker is a guy who jumps out in particular, mainly because I think bullpen help is probably the biggest need right now. At least in my eyes, Parker stacks up favorably when you compare him to some of the other relief pitchers available on the market. That's especially true if we look back at 2017-18 numbers combined. Past two seasons Blake Parker 2.90 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 1.03 WHIP, 22.8 K-BB% Adam Ottavino 3.50 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.25 WHIP, 18.1 K-BB% Cody Allen 3.82 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 20.7 K-BB% Kelvin Herrera 3.47 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 14.5 K-BB% *Moments after the Parker news broke Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the White Sox signed Herrera to a two-year, $18 million deal with a vesting third-year option. To be fair, there's a good reason why I zoomed out to the past two seasons. Parker is coming off a much less impressive season than he posted in 2017. Two seasons ago his FIP was 2.71, last year it was 4.40. According to Baseball Savant, Parker relies on his four seamer 58 percent of the time while mixing in a splitter 31.1 percent of the time and his curve at 10.9 percent. All three of those offerings took a dip in velocity from 2017 to last season, with the four-seam fastball going from 93.5 mph in 2017 to 92.1 last year. So there are certainly some things to like about Parker and some to be concerned about, as you would expect from a player who was recently non-tendered. Again, it's important to point out that at this time the signing has not been confirmed, but it would be surprising to see someone like Ken Rosenthal to connect a player to a team without having a strong inclination that things were fairly settled. Something to keep in mind is the Twins' 40-man roster is currently full, so they'll need to DFA another player to make room for Parker. Last week the Twins designated Aaron Slegers to make room for Nelson Cruz. 4:23 Update: Jeff Passan is reporting that the deal is close and believed to be worth slightly more than $3 million. Click here to view the article

I put a bit more air between your paragraphs to make this a little easier on the eyes, hope you don't mind. My enthusiasm for 2019 keeps teetering between "I wish they would go for it, the division is there for the taking" and "my God there are some terrible AL teams, at least the Twins have some hope." It could be better, but it could be a LOT worse.

Yes please! That's an .894 OPS. Do you know the last time a Twins hitter had an OPS that high in 400+ PAs? It was Joe Mauer's MVP season in 2009.

As a way to both look back at a great minor league season and celebrate the release of the 2019 Twins Prospect Handbook, I’m shining the spotlight on a few players in the system. Next up is Lewis Thorpe. The 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook is available in paperback for $17.99 or as an eBook for $12.99.In the first installment of this series, we took a look at right-handed pitcher Jhoan Duran and I shared some video of a brilliant start he made for Cedar Rapids. More recently, I took a look at Alex Kirilloff, an excellent hitter who is also a better athlete than he often gets credit for. Let's shine the spotlight on the Thorpedo. Thorpe had a huge 2018 season. He was placed on the 40-man roster, made his Triple-A debut and was named the Jim Rantz Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Speaking of that Triple-A debut, let's take take a look back at that outing. How about that for an arrival? Thorpe threw 71 of his 100 pitches for strikes, getting 22 swinging strikes. He struck out nine batters without issuing a single walk. Thorpe made three more appearances with Rochester prior to the end of the season and finished with a 3.32 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 in 21 2/3 innings with the Red Wings. Thorpe is just one of more than 160 players featured in the Prospect Handbook.We had a ton of fun putting the book together and we’re really excited for people to read it. Recognizing these minor league players for their efforts and ability is a big motivating factor in the project, so we would love for you to pick up a copy. Click here for more information on the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook Click here to view the article

That seems like an awfully aggressive ranking on Jake Cave.

I think the only thing that's going to slow Kirilloff down is the fact that there doesn't appear to be a pressing need on the big club right now. I could see him potentially being ready as early as this June if the Twins really wanted him up, but they don't appear to have any incentive to be that aggressive. I think that performance in the FSL is really what sent him rocketing up the national lists. He had the third-best OPS of any FSL hitter with at least 250 PAs. Very impressive. Still, I don't think it would hurt him any to begin the year back with the Miracle.

As a way to both look back at a great minor league season and celebrate the release of the 2019 Twins Prospect Handbook, I’m shining the spotlight on a few players in the system. Next up is Alex Kirilloff. The 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook is available in paperback for $17.99 or as an eBook for $12.99.In the first installment of this series, we took a look at right-handed pitcher Jhoan Duran and I shared some video of a brilliant start he made for Cedar Rapids. Kirilloff is much more of a known prospect across Twins Territory, but I dug up some video that I think shines some new light on his ability. Alex Kirilloff is a hitter. The guy literally grew up in a batting cage. Check out his spray chart and some of his impressive opposite-field home runs in the video below, but also take note of his athleticism. I compared his speed on the bases to a couple of current Twins corner outfielders. There you have it, I wouldn't go so far as to call Kirilloff a five-tool player, but he's definitely an even better athlete than I realized. I knew he was an excellent hitter, but his raw power also impressed me in 2018. He led all of the minor leagues in extra-base hits last season with 71 (44 doubles, seven triples and 20 home runs). Kirilloff is just one of more than 160 players featured in the Prospect Handbook.We had a ton of fun putting the book together and we’re really excited for people to read it. Recognizing these minor league players for their efforts and ability is a big motivating factor in the project, so we would love for you to pick up a copy. Click here for more information on the 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook Click here to view the article