Don Walcott

Congrats to Mollie! I think this is a well earned award. I understand the comments about the 103 season being under his leadership. However, a lot of things snowballed out of control in 2016, and at some point really early in the season there was no chance to make the playoffs. I give Molitor credit for sticking it out in 2016. I'll bet he earned some loyalty from the players for going through 2016 with them and coming out the other side with hope for 2017. In 2017, he definitely kept this team together, even after the FO threw in the towel (I'm not criticizing the FO for that). Oh, and he's one of us!

ERA+ relies on some very dubious assumptions regarding defensive statistics and ballpark factors. The Morris debate actually highlights the deficiencies in ERA+ and bWAR (which uses ERA+), Baseball Reference has Morris' best season as 1979, when he pitched 197.2 innings (he got called up at the end of May). He had a 3.27 ERA. However, Tiger Stadium was considered a hitters park that year, and his defense wasn't considered to be very good. In 1983, he pitched 293.2 innings with a 3.34 ERA. However, Tiger Stadium had magically transformed into a pitcher's park (partly due to the Tigers staff being the best in the league in 1984), and his defense was considered better. So his ERA+ was better in 1979, and hence his bWAR ended up better in 1979. To me, this is ridiculous. There's no question Morris was better in 1983. He threw nearly 96 more innings at basically the same ERA. He had a 19.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate, compared to 14% and 7.3% in 1979. He had a 1.158 WHIP compared to 1.204 in 1979. How on earth could bWAR be 5.8 in 1979 and only 4.0 in 1983? Well, because ERA+ and bWAR are terrible rating systems for starting pitchers. Morris' fWAR for 1983 was 6.2 and for 1979 it was 3.6. So fWAR has Morris 2.6 games better in 1983, and bWAR has Morris 1.8 games better in 1979. These rating systems not only don't align, they actually completely disagree about value. The reason this doesn't make sense is that these rating systems are not perfect, nor should they be relied upon in assessing historical facts. The rating systems are better at prediction, as they are based on hypothetical value, not actual historical value.

And every batter he struck out was a position player or DH. He never got to strike out other pitchers.

Buxton not winning would have been a travesty. He was spectacular this year. If he stays healthy, he will definitely win a bunch of these. Even if he doesn't deserve it in some future year, there seems to be an incumbency factor to the award that's just as pervasive as the gold batting glove factor. And good for Dozier. Despite defensive metrics, yada yada yada, I don't see Kinsler and Pedroia as being noticeably better than him. His playing a lot of games very consistently with the glove was valuable to his team.

I thought it was clear i was acknowledging that I was cherry picking facts. Given time and space constraints, isn't any post cherry picking? . . . Now, I'm nit-picking. I mentioned the 3 All-Star starts because you can't find another pitcher who started 3 All-Star games who is not in the Hall. Morris probably wasn't in more All-Star games because he had several seasons where he wasn't very good in the first half, but was lights out in the second half -- like 1983 and 1986. I agree with Glavine being a first-time HOFer. I also think Mussina should be in. Clemens would be in, but for steroids. So, my point on the Cy Young votes is that the only pitchers touching his era who had more years where someone voted for them were HOFers. And, I thought, my other point was that he should have been the Cy Young in 1983, but for a bias toward wins. He pitched way more innings than Hoyt, with an ERA of 1/3 of a run less, with way more strikeouts, but Hoyt had 24 wins. If he were a guy who had more WAR to appease people who rely solely on that rating system, everyone would be pointing out the injustice of the 1983 Cy Young voting. Here's a list of pitchers who had less years with Cy Young votes:: 1. Steve Carlton – 6 HOF 2. Fergie Jenkins – 6 HOF 3. Dennis Eckersley – 6 HOF 4. Tom Glavine – 6 HOF 5. Mariano Rivera – 6 Sure thing HOF 6. Johan Santana – 6 7. Roy Oswalt – 6 8. Justin Verlander – 6 9. Dan Quisenberry – 5 10. CC Sabathia – 5 11. Andy Pettitte – 5 12. John Smoltz – 5 HOF 13. Bruce Sutter – 5 HOF 14. Phil Niekro – 5 HOF 15. Gaylord Perry – 5 HOF 16. Rich Gossage – 5 HOF 17. Don Sutton – 5 HOF 18. Catfish Hunter – 4 HOF 19. Rollie Fingers – 4 HOF 20. Lee Smith – 4 21. Trevor Hoffman – 4 Likely HOF 22. Curt Schilling – 4 23. Bert Blyleven – 4 HOF Here's a list of those who had as many or more: 1. Roger Clemens – 12 2. Randy Johnson – 10 HOF 3. Tom Seaver – 10 HOF 4. Mike Mussina – 9 Likely HOF 5. Greg Maddux – 9 HOF 6. Jim Palmer – 8 HOF 7. Nolan Ryan – 8 HOF 8. Roy Halladay – 7* Likely HOF 9. Pedro Martinez – 7 HOF Another cherry-picking fact: Glavine had 682 career starts, and 216 wins where he pitched 7 innings or more. Morris had 525 career starts, and 217 wins where he pitched 7 innings or more. 86% of Morris' wins were 7 innings or more, leaving 2 innings or less for the bullpen to handle. 45% of his wins, the bullpen didn't need to get up at all (more than 1 out of every 5 times he pitched). Both guys had pretty consistently good or great offenses on their teams. But Morris relied much less on his bullpen. Sure, there were years where his stats ended up pretty ordinary (except for innings pitched and CGs). But my point is that its seems like people either don't remember or don't want to remember how dominant he was at times during his prime.

Just cherry picking actual historical facts, as opposed to hypothetical rating systems.

Morris was the #1 for three different teams who won the WS. The Tigers have won 3 WS total, the Twins 2, and the Jays 2. Morris is a significant historical figure for each of these teams in a way that is unmatched by any other pitcher in history. He was dominant in two of those post-seasons, winning Babe Ruth Awards twice and WS MVP once. He was crucial for each team making the playoffs. He had 13 healthy seasons, and his career rating stats are jacked due to his injury-plagued 1989, 1993 and 1994 seasons. In his 13 healthy seasons, he led his team in regular season innings and wins every year but 1991, when Erickson had more regular season wins. If you count the playoffs, he led his teams in innings and wins all 13 seasons. His teams had a .599 winning percentage when he was pitching, and a .540 percentage when he was not. And his teams were able to utilize the bullpens more on his off days because he pitched deeper into games than anyone of his era. In his 13 healthy seasons, he averaged 18-12, 3.65 ERA, 246.2 innings pitched, 7and 1/3 innings per game, 12 CG, 8 CGW and 2 Shutouts. He had 111 Complete Game victories. In games he started where there was a save chance but he stayed in, he was 49 of 52 (94%) akin to Dennis Eckersley in his MVP and Cy Young season. He was better in innings 7-9 than in innings 4-6 or 1-3. He was also better in the 9th inning than any other inning. His rate stats in the 9th inning of games he pitched in are similar to those of Hall of Fame closers. He was a freak of nature how he could get stronger in the 9th inning, with a higher strikeout percentage than in any other inning. And these numbers support the idea that he saved something for the end of games to finish off his opponents. He was voted for Cy Young in 7 different seasons. For all pitchers who touched on his era, only Clemens (12), Mussina (9), Palmer (8) and Ryan (8) had more seasons where someone gave them a Cy Young vote. Blyleven and Tommy John had 4. He also started 3 All-Star Games. In 8th inning of the last game of 1981, he was one bad inning of his team not fielding bunts very well away from a Cy Young. He deserved to be the Cy Young in 1983, when he led the league in innings and strikeouts, had 293.2 innings (matched only once since by Blyleven in 1985), 20 CGs, 14 CGWs (striking out 17 in the 9th inning of those wins), and a 3.34 ERA. Match his numbers against the Cy Young winner, Lamar Hoyt, and Hoyt was only better in wins. He had 7 consecutive CGs from August 3-September 1 that season, almost keeping the Tigers in the pennant race. In 1986, he had 6 shutouts (including a 10-inning shutout of the Yankees), and a streak of 32 consecutive innings without giving up a run. In 1984, he was 9-0, with a 1.97 ERA during the Tigers' 35-5 start. He had one no decision where he went 9 and the Tigers won in the 10th and one 1-0 CG loss. Then, after the Tigers lost 3 straight, he went out and won the next game in another CG. During the streak, he hardly needed any relief, which was saved for the next game's pitcher. In 1991, during the Twins' 24-3 streak, he went 6-0. Then after the Twins lost 4, he stopped the losing streak with a shutout against the White Sox and Jack McDowell. in 1992, he was 9-2 with a 2.97 during the last two months of the season, with the Jays holding a slim lead in the division, averaging 8 IP/game. In his prime, he was dominant. He came up historically big in big games for his teams. I don't think any of his contemporaries who aren't in the Hall match up to him in accomplishments and contributions to his teams. IMO, he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

At this point, Dozier's trade value seems to be this offseason for a team that needs someone this year and may be willing to let him walk at the end of 2018 after making him a QO. If we don't trade him this offseason, and we don't extend his contract, we make him a QO at the end of the 2018 season. If we get two years of Dozier on this contract, and a draft pick for 2019, I expect that result will have been much better than having done the DeLeon trade. (Having said that, I hope they explore a reasonable extension with Dozier). As much credit as Falvine may deserve not trading Dozier, his 2017 was, IMO, a pleasant surprise. Their assessment likely was that he would revert to pre-2016 numbers, and they still didn't make the trade. So far, they were right either way, but Dozier's 2017 makes them look a lot better. I think the take away from this is that, so far, they've earned our trust in their assessments of players. (And, if that's the case, can we please give them some money to work with this offseason?)

Dozier won't win. Mauer at least had two close competitors, though he deserves to be a finalist. Now, if Buxton doesn't win, that will be a very sad day for the Gold Glove Awards.

Remember when Mark McGwire won the Gold Glove over Hrbek?

I've never seen that "premise" come up once here (or anywhere else for that matter) . . . other than your posts.

I would love to see us sign Arrieta!!

Rich Hill has pitched 246 innings total over the past two seasons. He's never thrown 200 innings, and only once started 30 games. He's also 37. I wouldn't count on him to lead a pitching staff going forward.

In what world is Lance Lynn an ace and Ervin Santana is not?

Ditto.

I would love to see the Twins extend Dozier. After 2018, I think he could move to 1B if we have other middle infielders pushing their way into major league spots. I think his bat will be good for a 1B for another 2-3 years after 2018. I would hope that he would go for 3 years with one option year. You never know, he might show appreciation for the team that brought him up, and didn't trade him for cheap. And giving Molitor 3 years might have helped make this deal.

That's obviously what Francona was thinking. Although it makes no sense that they were even warming up a lefty with Judge and Sanchez coming up next. And it makes no sense from a purely statistical probability standpoint with Gardner being much, much better against right-handed pitchers. And there were runners on first and second and two outs, so it would have made a lot more sense to bring in a lefty to get Gardner than risk facing Judge and possibly Sanchez next. My point is that's exactly the kind of old school thinking that would not be tolerated here if it were Molitor.

I turned on the Indians-Yankees game last night when it was 3-2 Yankees and Cody Allen was pitching. Cleveland had a lefty up in the bullpen, and Brett Gardner was coming up. Francona sends out the pitching coach, and I'm thinking "what the **** is he doing? Has he never seen how Gardner works over righties?" If Molitor had failed to put a lefty in to face Gardner in a situation like that, this site would have exploded.

I agree with these points. So I hope this move was more about bringing someone else in who Falvine believe will make a difference, rather than assessing blame.

Is that some sort of eastern thing?

Fair enough. Maybe I just have strike zone PTSD from past experiences with the Yankees.

I'm surprised there isn't more conversation about the balls and strikes calls. Maybe I'm just a sore loser, but Santana struck out Gregorius before that home run. Then, Castro got screwed when the umpire expanded the zone outside on him, and he had to strike out on the next pitch that was outside the zone. I didn't pay too much attention to the calls the rest of the game, but those were two big calls. I'm probably just biased, but it seemed to me like at least those two calls had a major effect on the game, and we didn't get any important breaks from the ump. And you can offer excuses, like Santana didn't throw the pitch in the right location, and Castro had to reach for it. But the umpire should be calling the strike zone, not where and how the pitch is caught. It's time we had balls and strikes called by someone who isn't distracted by shiny objects or influenced by crowds.

I actually had a dream last night about being on a "Flume" or "Splash Mountain" style roller coaster ride. I'm going to be a nervous wreck today. I'm going to be especially nervous if we have a close lead late in the game and we need our bullpen to hold on. . . . But I paid for this ticket, and I still like the roller coaster ride. GO TWINS!!

Even before he stepped up at the plate, he was among the most valuable just because of what he did in the field -- not to mention what he does on the base paths. Just all around the best (and most valuable) player on the team, IMO.

Santana is the only pitcher up for MVP. So why even vote on pitcher of the year? Rosario Hildenberger Santana Buxton